Do you think that Disney world will reclose its gates due to the rising number of COVID cases in Florida and around the country?

[legwand77]

Haven't had time to post in a couple of days.
This is an excellent article demonstrating just how abnormal the current hospital situation is:

'A Sinking Shipâ: Arizona Docs Say Ducey Steered State Into COVID-19 Surge

The state has 130,000 coronavirus cases, and hospital workers say it didn’t have to happen.

www.thedailybeast.com

Perfect demonstration of the current situation in hot zones:
"Inside the hospitals, doctors told The Daily Beast they were working more than 100 hours a week, and “countless” nurses were out sick. At one Tucson-area hospital, a secondary ICU that closed when things leveled off over the spring recently reopened, and the post-anesthesia care unit was “cannibalized” to house coronavirus patients, according to emergency physician Larry DeLuca. Snyder said one of the hospitals where he works had started housing adult patients in its pediatric towers, and the emergency department was also shuffling beds to make room for COVID-positive patients.

One ICU physician in Tucson, who asked not to be named for fear of employer retaliation, said the official numbers actually underplayed the severity of the crisis. When hospitals reported that 90 percent of their ICU beds and half of their ventilators were in use, the physician said, those numbers included the extra beds and machines they’d brought in for the pandemic. If those percentages ever reached 100, there would be no feasible way for the hospital to scale up."

There is some good news, along with lots and lots of bad news:
The good news: Despite the lack of statewide mandate for masking in Arizona, 90% of people are under local mask mandates.
More good news is that the cases have leveled off and even slightly started to decline in Arizona, with hospitalizations starting to potentially decline.
The bad news is that the state is very much still in a flashing red danger zone, they can't afford for things to get any worse. And being "stable" at such an exceptionally high level is still horrible.

Similarly, in Texas, which enacted statewide masking, it appears that cases and hospitalizations are starting to level off. While that's certainly better than increasing, it's still a horribly high level. Death counts will likely to continue to increase for the remainder of the month.

Florida -- still too early to say whether there is any real progress. The good news is that the number of daily cases has started to possibly show some decline. But positivity rate still stays way above 5%, even way above 10%. Deaths and hospitalizations remain on a steep upward trend. In other words, Florida may be at the early stages of a peak. This is not a level you want to plateau at. Florida is paying the price for failing to take much more aggressive action to combat the virus. With proper actions, Florida would currently be having under 10 deaths per day, not 100+ deaths per day.

The entire Southeast continues to be an area of grave concern. Louisiana, Georgia and Alabama all continue to show very high and growing per capita positive cases.
To get a sense, change in hospitalizations since July 1st:
Alabama: 96% increase in hospitalization
Florida: 36% increase since July 10th (prior to July 10th, data not available)
Georgia: 103% increase since 7/1
Louisiana: 89% increases since 7/1 (especially disturbing, because they were hit early and got a huge drop.. for them, this is a second wave).

Of course, this all poses a danger to having Disney World open: Driving visitors from Alabama, Georgia and Louisiana, spreading the virus.

Nationwide, we have some good news and bad news. The really bad news: Rest of July will be ugly. We will start having 1000+ death days again. Hospitalization rate is very close to our peak.
The good news: Despite the high case count and hospitalization, because of improved therapies and lower average age of infected, the death count is unlikely to get as high as what was happening in New York. The fatality rate appears to be dropping slightly.

The biggest caveat and unknown: Many experts believed the virus would hit a lull in the summer, and strengthen in the fall. So if this current disaster is the summer lull, we could really be in big trouble in the fall as schools re-open, people spend more time indoors, etc. It's really an unknown. But the big danger is: By not totally squashing the virus now, by "accepting" high plateaus as "normal," we could potentially be in for a total disaster. Of course, the current plateau levels already are a complete disaster.

Impressive bunch of anecdotal fear mongering there. No point in discussing those points. Your hospitalizations stats are Covid only? not clear?, don't know where you are getting them. Maybe based on when hospitals were all but closed to now when open? Just guessing because you give no context.

Parks have been open for close to a month now, some parks two months. Parks are not an issue nor have been.

Rest of July is not trending anywhere near ugly, but you have a week or so keep your hopes up for the those 1000 deaths days.

Interesting you say

"We will start having 1000+ death days again" and "The fatality rate appears to be dropping slightly." in the same paragraph.

 

[Jrb1979]

If that is the case we need to be doing a lot of other things for every other disease and everything else for that matter.

While true. The thing with this virus is many other countries has shown what works. Even other states have done things that worked. Had all states done what the original guideline for reopening said. A lot of what is happening wouldn't be so bad. I look at how slow we opened things here and our numbers have been decling for weeks now. Had all states done the same you most likely wouldn't see the spikes you do.

Here is what our plan was and I ask why it wouldn't work in Florida. There has been 4 weeks between stages

Stage 1 construction could start up again and all retail could open with limited capacity. Not malls.

Stage 2 restaurant patios were allowed to open. Campgrounds could open and group size were upped to 10. Zoos, museums and small attractions can open.

Stage 3 everything else can open except for amusement parks. Our group size can be 50 now.

Other then the amusement park part I ask why couldn't that work.

 

[Miss Bella]

Impressive bunch of anecdotal fear mongering there. No point in discussing those points. Your hospitalizations stats are Covid only? not clear?, don't know where you are getting them. Maybe based on when hospitals were all but closed to now when open? Just guessing because you give no context.

Parks have been open for close to a month now, some parks two months. Parks are not an issue nor have been.

Rest of July is not trending anywhere near ugly, but you have a week or so keep your hopes up for the those 1000 deaths days.

Interesting you say

"We will start having 1000+ death days again" and "The fatality rate appears to be dropping slightly." in the same paragraph.

Opinion writers can always find one person to interview that will back up their narrative. That's why all these articles are worthless clickbait.

 

[FullSailDan]

New numbers out pretty much the trend and reasoning from what I posted yesterday still applies. For Florida it is pretty much is a localalized outbreak in Miami and has been for a while.

On the ground reports here in Central Florida indicate that testing continues to be a factor in our 'lower numbers'. It's not easy to get a test here at the moment. The only "no referral needed, no limitations" testing location is at the convention center which is A: not easy to get to for everyone, B: has reportedly had long waits. We also have a 10+ day results delay, meaning if I test today, I wont see results until 10 days later. Deaths and hospitalization rates are also very slow to update here. We don't get real time numbers reported. We're not in crisis mode in Orlando from a bandwidth standpoint, but things aren't as rosy as the Governor has reported. It is spreading here, Osceola in particular has seen a slow uptick lately. Also keep in mind that many hourly cast members do not live in Orange county due to the cost.

 

[legwand77]

While true. The thing with this virus is many other countries has shown what works. Even other states have done things that worked. Had all states done what the original guideline for reopening said. A lot of what is happening wouldn't be so bad. I look at how slow we opened things here and our numbers have been decling for weeks now. Had all states done the same you most likely wouldn't see the spikes you do.

Here is what our plan was and I ask why it wouldn't work in Florida. There has been 4 weeks between stages

Stage 1 construction could start up again and all retail could open with limited capacity. Not malls.

Stage 2 restaurant patios were allowed to open. Campgrounds could open and group size were upped to 10. Zoos, museums and small attractions can open.

Stage 3 everything else can open except for amusement parks. Our group size can be 50 now.

Other then the amusement park part I ask why couldn't that work.

What works and doesn't work is not binary. Some countries, states, counties, or cities didn't lock down at all or require masks, restrict dining and are doing much better than others that did.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

What works and doesn't work is not binary. Some countries, states, counties, or cities didn't lock down at all or require masks, restrict dining and are doing much better than others that did.

Exactly. New York and Connecticut locked down harder than anybody and their numbers dwarf Florida's.

 

[havoc315]

Impressive bunch of anecdotal fear mongering there. No point in discussing those points. Your hospitalizations stats are Covid only? not clear?, don't know where you are getting them. Maybe based on when hospitals were all but closed to now when open? Just guessing because you give no context.

Parks have been open for close to a month now, some parks two months. Parks are not an issue nor have been.

Rest of July is not trending anywhere near ugly, but you have a week or so keep your hopes up for the those 1000 deaths days.

Interesting you say

"We will start having 1000+ death days again" and "The fatality rate appears to be dropping slightly." in the same paragraph.

Easy to dismiss as anecdotal -- But it's real world. Hospitals ICUs overflowing -- that's what is actually happening. Refrigerated trucks being brought in because morgues can't handle all the dead bodies.

The hospitalization rates for for Covid ONLY. Funny how you try to "guess" to dismiss the black and white data. When real world examples are given, you dismiss it as "anecdotal." When the hard core stats are given, you pretend they must be wrong. Those are the real Covid stats. Period.

Parks are a huge issue. I just learned of another family that became infected after traveling for theme park visits. (Don't know where precisely they became infected but it was during their trip, a trip that wouldn't have happened if not for theme parks being open).

Hopes UP for 1,000 deaths?? Not ugly?!?! Are you nuts? My hope is for as few deaths as possible. 1,000 deaths per day is UGLY. If we had handled this correctly, we would be having under 50-100 deaths per day nationwide right now due to Covid.
So yes, July is trending UGLY. 1,000 deaths in a day is UGLY.

And yes -- we will start having 1000+ deaths per day AND the fatality rate is dropping. Try some math-- we have more cases then ever. If we still had the same fatality rate as April, we would be talking 2,000+ deaths per day. So 1,000+ deaths per day is a huge improvement over 2,000+ deaths per day!! But still absolutely horrible!!

Really... I don't understand this concerted effort to pretend "nothing to see here."

This is possibly the most deadly tragedy to strike American soil since the 1918 flu pandemic or possibly even since the Civil War.

 

[havoc315]

Exactly. New York and Connecticut locked down harder than anybody and their numbers dwarf Florida's.

Psst ---Cause and effect. The lockdowns in NY and Conn didn't take effect until there were already tens of thousands infection. Look at the numbers SINCE the effect of the lock downs could be felt:
Just yesterday's numbers:
New York: 707 infections and 14 deaths
Conn: 162 infections and 10 deaths.

So a hard lockdown in April/May -- led to great success being felt in June and July.

Meanwhile, Florida and Texas which only has short soft lock downs:
Florida: 10,347 cases yesterday and 90 deaths.
Texas: 7,925 and 118 deaths

So .... the situation is MUCH better in places that did a solid lock down.

 

[havoc315]

What works and doesn't work is not binary. Some countries, states, counties, or cities didn't lock down at all or require masks, restrict dining and are doing much better than others that did.

You are missing a massively important caveat -- "so far."

Some places that didn't take preventative measures might just get lucky. They may be more rural and isolated, and simply never get a big introduction of the virus. Other such locations may have been lucky "so far," but will likely get hit hard eventually.

Just over a month ago, some people were pointing to Oklahoma.... using Oklahoma as an example of an area that did perfectly fine without many restrictions.

Since that time:

 

[havoc315]

Uh, that's because it's already torn through the nursing homes in New York. All of the vulnerable people are already dead.

Yawn and no. That's the politicization answer. New York is a long way from herd immunity.
So if the lock down didn't help Conn and New York, as per your theory -- even if we removed every nursing home from the equation, that still wouldn't explain why Florida and Texas are now 1,000% worse off than places that did hard lock downs.

 

[legwand77]

Easy to dismiss as anecdotal -- But it's real world. Hospitals ICUs overflowing -- that's what is actually happening. Refrigerated trucks being brought in because morgues can't handle all the dead bodies.

The hospitalization rates for for Covid ONLY. Funny how you try to "guess" to dismiss the black and white data. When real world examples are given, you dismiss it as "anecdotal." When the hard core stats are given, you pretend they must be wrong. Those are the real Covid stats. Period.

Parks are a huge issue. I just learned of another family that became infected after traveling for theme park visits. (Don't know where precisely they became infected but it was during their trip, a trip that wouldn't have happened if not for theme parks being open).

Hopes UP for 1,000 deaths?? Not ugly?!?! Are you nuts? My hope is for as few deaths as possible. 1,000 deaths per day is UGLY. If we had handled this correctly, we would be having under 50-100 deaths per day nationwide right now due to Covid.
So yes, July is trending UGLY. 1,000 deaths in a day is UGLY.

And yes -- we will start having 1000+ deaths per day AND the fatality rate is dropping. Try some math-- we have more cases then ever. If we still had the same fatality rate as April, we would be talking 2,000+ deaths per day. So 1,000+ deaths per day is a huge improvement over 2,000+ deaths per day!! But still absolutely horrible!!

Really... I don't understand this concerted effort to pretend "nothing to see here."

This is possibly the most deadly tragedy to strike American soil since the 1918 flu pandemic or possibly even since the Civil War.

You are the one making the claims and anecdotal evidence. Show me one hospital that is overflowing, patients in conventions centers, etc. You haven't shown any hardcore evidence, I was just asking for you to do so, did not say they were wrong.

I see you are saying the CFR rate is dropping but the IFR is not, might want to revisit that.

 

[havoc315]

You are the one making the claims and anecdotal evidence. Show me one hospital that is overflowing, patients in conventions centers, etc. You haven't shown any hardcore evidence, I was just asking for you to do so, did not say they were wrong.

I see you are saying the CFR rate is dropping but the IFR is not, might want to revisit that.

No, the IFR and CFR are both dropping. But we have more total infections -- both diagnosed and undiagnosed, then in April/May.

If you have an IFR: of 1% in April: With 50,000 known infections and an additional 450,000 undiagnosed infections: That will result in 5,000 deaths and a CFR of 10%, IFR of 1%.

Now, if you increase testing but infections also increase: So hypothetically August: 200,000 known infections. And 800,000 undiagnosed infections. Let's say you have 7,000 deaths: Then CFR has dropped from 10% to 3.5%.. and IFR has dropped from 1% to 0.7%... but deaths have increased.

I showed you a story about a hospital overflowing -- You choose to dismiss it. I show you the stats, you chose to dismiss those.
So you dismiss both the first-hand accounts and the compiled official stats. Nobody is claiming that patients are being sent to convention centers: Most hospitals have sufficient bed space since they shut down elective procedures. They are turning away elective patients, to open up bed space. What is happening: PACUs and regular rooms are having to be turned into makeshift extra ICUs.. intensivists who usually work 36 hours per week and cover 3 patients at a time, suddenly have to work 100 hours per week and cover 10 patients at a time. Do you really want the "goal post" to be, "everything is fine as long as people aren't dying on the front lawn of the hospital?

Impossible to show you anything if you keep your eyes closed.

 

[hopemax]

So the question is are there 4 more deaths for 7/7 still to be recorded? 9 more deaths for 7/6? 20 more deaths for 7/11 or 7/12?

So the answer for this, for 7/7 was, "Yes." Now, 101 deaths listed. 7/11 and 7/12 are on the clock, at 94 & 95.

 

[legwand77]

Yawn and no. That's the politicization answer. New York is a long way from herd immunity.
So if the lock down didn't help Conn and New York, as per your theory -- even if we removed every nursing home from the equation, that still wouldn't explain why Florida and Texas are now 1,000% worse off than places that did hard lock downs.

You really need to do your math on that

Florida and Texas has a similar number of confirmed cases, and are on trend that is 1/10th of New York's

For Florida to hit the death rate of NY they would need about 3 million more confirmed cases that they currently have, which at the current daily case numbewrs which has been steady or declining in the past week, It would take 300 days every single day. It would take Texas about 10000 current case number days to match NY, and that is using last week numbers, as cases are declining in Texas.

Not quite 1000% worse off

 

[Disstevefan1]

I hate looking at the numbers over and over, I prefer this reality

 

[schuelma]

sure I'll bite, explain how it is

What exactly is trending down? Positivity rate? Deaths?

And its not just a Miami problem and labeling it as such is incredibly misleading

 

[havoc315]

You really need to do your math on that

Florida and Texas has a similar number of confirmed cases, and are on trend that is 1/10th of New York's

Nobody cares about April. So you're saying, "if New York got a grade of F in April, we should be thrilled with Florida getting a grade of D- now!!! Woohoo!! Take that New York, we didn't kill as many people as you did!!!!"

MATH:
The effect of taking correct measures:
New York today: 698 cases and 1 death.
Florida today: 9,440 cases and 132 deaths.

So let's be precise: Florida is now 1256% worse than NY is cases and 13100% worse off than NY is deaths.

In other words: Learn the lesson from NY. New York would have been in much better shape if they started their lock down in January -- but they didn't even know the virus was present in January. As a result, they started a lockdown in late March -- And by June/July, they are reaping the benefits.
Florida failed to do a real lock down -- so Florida is now paying the price.

 

[schuelma]

You really need to do your math on that

Florida and Texas has a similar number of confirmed cases, and are on trend that is 1/10th of New York's

For Florida to hit the death rate of NY they would need about 3 million more confirmed cases that they currently have, which at the current daily case numbewrs which has been steady or declining in the past week, It would take 300 days every single day. It would take Texas about 10000 current case number days to match NY, and that is using last week numbers, as cases are declining in Texas.

Not quite 1000% worse off

You can't argue Florida is seeing all these new cases because of testing and then try to argue NY's death rate is 10x worse. Its literally the same issue- in April the country was not testing nearly enough and so the reported cases was very low compared to reported deaths. Now Florida and other states reporting more cases because we are testing more, but that is also skewing the death rate in comparison to April.

 

[networkpro]

Uh, that's because it's already torn through the nursing homes in New York. All of the vulnerable people are already dead.

Well there was that NY state intervention which had Covid patients discharged into nursing homes for convalescent care....

 

[legwand77]

No, the IFR and CFR are both dropping. But we have more total infections -- both diagnosed and undiagnosed, then in April/May.

If you have an IFR: of 1% in April: With 50,000 known infections and an additional 450,000 undiagnosed infections: That will result in 5,000 deaths and a CFR of 10%, IFR of 1%.

Now, if you increase testing but infections also increase: So hypothetically August: 200,000 known infections. And 800,000 undiagnosed infections. Let's say you have 7,000 deaths: Then CFR has dropped from 10% to 3.5%.. and IFR has dropped from 1% to 0.7%... but deaths have increased.

I showed you a story about a hospital overflowing -- You choose to dismiss it. I show you the stats, you chose to dismiss those.
So you dismiss both the first-hand accounts and the compiled official stats. Nobody is claiming that patients are being sent to convention centers: Most hospitals have sufficient bed space since they shut down elective procedures. They are turning away elective patients, to open up bed space. What is happening: PACUs and regular rooms are having to be turned into makeshift extra ICUs.. intensivists who usually work 36 hours per week and cover 3 patients at a time, suddenly have to work 100 hours per week and cover 10 patients at a time. Do you really want the "goal post" to be, "everything is fine as long as people aren't dying on the front lawn of the hospital?

Impossible to show you anything if you keep your eyes closed.

Might want to read that article, not one mention of a hospital overflowing. they are very busy but not overflowing, like I said having patients in tents, having to use convention centers etc and that "interview" was from 3-4 days ago I imagine we would be seeing it by now since it is so dire there.