Do you think that Disney world will reclose its gates due to the rising number of COVID cases in Florida and around the country?

[havoc315]

You are the one making the claims and anecdotal evidence. Show me one hospital that is overflowing, patients in conventions centers, etc. You haven't shown any hardcore evidence, I was just asking for you to do so, did not say they were wrong.

I see you are saying the CFR rate is dropping but the IFR is not, might want to revisit that.

No, the IFR and CFR are both dropping. But we have more total infections -- both diagnosed and undiagnosed, then in April/May.

If you have an IFR: of 1% in April: With 50,000 known infections and an additional 450,000 undiagnosed infections: That will result in 5,000 deaths and a CFR of 10%, IFR of 1%.

Now, if you increase testing but infections also increase: So hypothetically August: 200,000 known infections. And 800,000 undiagnosed infections. Let's say you have 7,000 deaths: Then CFR has dropped from 10% to 3.5%.. and IFR has dropped from 1% to 0.7%... but deaths have increased.

I showed you a story about a hospital overflowing -- You choose to dismiss it. I show you the stats, you chose to dismiss those.
So you dismiss both the first-hand accounts and the compiled official stats. Nobody is claiming that patients are being sent to convention centers: Most hospitals have sufficient bed space since they shut down elective procedures. They are turning away elective patients, to open up bed space. What is happening: PACUs and regular rooms are having to be turned into makeshift extra ICUs.. intensivists who usually work 36 hours per week and cover 3 patients at a time, suddenly have to work 100 hours per week and cover 10 patients at a time. Do you really want the "goal post" to be, "everything is fine as long as people aren't dying on the front lawn of the hospital?

Impossible to show you anything if you keep your eyes closed.

 

[hopemax]

So the question is are there 4 more deaths for 7/7 still to be recorded? 9 more deaths for 7/6? 20 more deaths for 7/11 or 7/12?

So the answer for this, for 7/7 was, "Yes." Now, 101 deaths listed. 7/11 and 7/12 are on the clock, at 94 & 95.

 

[legwand77]

Yawn and no. That's the politicization answer. New York is a long way from herd immunity.
So if the lock down didn't help Conn and New York, as per your theory -- even if we removed every nursing home from the equation, that still wouldn't explain why Florida and Texas are now 1,000% worse off than places that did hard lock downs.

You really need to do your math on that

Florida and Texas has a similar number of confirmed cases, and are on trend that is 1/10th of New York's

For Florida to hit the death rate of NY they would need about 3 million more confirmed cases that they currently have, which at the current daily case numbewrs which has been steady or declining in the past week, It would take 300 days every single day. It would take Texas about 10000 current case number days to match NY, and that is using last week numbers, as cases are declining in Texas.

Not quite 1000% worse off

 

[Disstevefan1]

I hate looking at the numbers over and over, I prefer this reality

 

[schuelma]

sure I'll bite, explain how it is

What exactly is trending down? Positivity rate? Deaths?

And its not just a Miami problem and labeling it as such is incredibly misleading

 

[havoc315]

You really need to do your math on that

Florida and Texas has a similar number of confirmed cases, and are on trend that is 1/10th of New York's

Nobody cares about April. So you're saying, "if New York got a grade of F in April, we should be thrilled with Florida getting a grade of D- now!!! Woohoo!! Take that New York, we didn't kill as many people as you did!!!!"

MATH:
The effect of taking correct measures:
New York today: 698 cases and 1 death.
Florida today: 9,440 cases and 132 deaths.

So let's be precise: Florida is now 1256% worse than NY is cases and 13100% worse off than NY is deaths.

In other words: Learn the lesson from NY. New York would have been in much better shape if they started their lock down in January -- but they didn't even know the virus was present in January. As a result, they started a lockdown in late March -- And by June/July, they are reaping the benefits.
Florida failed to do a real lock down -- so Florida is now paying the price.

 

[schuelma]

You really need to do your math on that

Florida and Texas has a similar number of confirmed cases, and are on trend that is 1/10th of New York's

For Florida to hit the death rate of NY they would need about 3 million more confirmed cases that they currently have, which at the current daily case numbewrs which has been steady or declining in the past week, It would take 300 days every single day. It would take Texas about 10000 current case number days to match NY, and that is using last week numbers, as cases are declining in Texas.

Not quite 1000% worse off

You can't argue Florida is seeing all these new cases because of testing and then try to argue NY's death rate is 10x worse. Its literally the same issue- in April the country was not testing nearly enough and so the reported cases was very low compared to reported deaths. Now Florida and other states reporting more cases because we are testing more, but that is also skewing the death rate in comparison to April.

 

[networkpro]

Uh, that's because it's already torn through the nursing homes in New York. All of the vulnerable people are already dead.

Well there was that NY state intervention which had Covid patients discharged into nursing homes for convalescent care....

 

[legwand77]

No, the IFR and CFR are both dropping. But we have more total infections -- both diagnosed and undiagnosed, then in April/May.

If you have an IFR: of 1% in April: With 50,000 known infections and an additional 450,000 undiagnosed infections: That will result in 5,000 deaths and a CFR of 10%, IFR of 1%.

Now, if you increase testing but infections also increase: So hypothetically August: 200,000 known infections. And 800,000 undiagnosed infections. Let's say you have 7,000 deaths: Then CFR has dropped from 10% to 3.5%.. and IFR has dropped from 1% to 0.7%... but deaths have increased.

I showed you a story about a hospital overflowing -- You choose to dismiss it. I show you the stats, you chose to dismiss those.
So you dismiss both the first-hand accounts and the compiled official stats. Nobody is claiming that patients are being sent to convention centers: Most hospitals have sufficient bed space since they shut down elective procedures. They are turning away elective patients, to open up bed space. What is happening: PACUs and regular rooms are having to be turned into makeshift extra ICUs.. intensivists who usually work 36 hours per week and cover 3 patients at a time, suddenly have to work 100 hours per week and cover 10 patients at a time. Do you really want the "goal post" to be, "everything is fine as long as people aren't dying on the front lawn of the hospital?

Impossible to show you anything if you keep your eyes closed.

Might want to read that article, not one mention of a hospital overflowing. they are very busy but not overflowing, like I said having patients in tents, having to use convention centers etc and that "interview" was from 3-4 days ago I imagine we would be seeing it by now since it is so dire there.

 

[havoc315]

So the question is are there 4 more deaths for 7/7 still to be recorded? 9 more deaths for 7/6? 20 more deaths for 7/11 or 7/12?

Precisely. We aren't yet seeing recording the full extent of -current- deaths. Many, even most, deaths that have occurred in the last few days haven't been recorded yet.

The result: We won't really know when things have peaked, until days or weeks after such peak.

 

[KBLovedDisney]

There have been a rise in cases, filling up of hospitals, possibly more deaths...

Will Disney close?

Unless the government of FL says...maybe. I really don't know.

 

[havoc315]

Might want to read that article, not one mention of a hospital overflowing. they are very busy but not overflowing, like I said having patients in tents, having to use convention centers etc and that "interview" was from 3-4 days ago I imagine we would be seeing it by now since it is so dire there.

The situation in Arizona has stabilized a bit, but no -- there hasn't been a huge decrease in hospitalization in Arizona in the last 4 days.

Do you understand the difference between an ICU and a hospital?!?!? Nobody is claiming HOSPITALS are overflowing with people being thrown out onto the front lawn.

Me: ICUs are way over capacity.
You: There aren't people in convention centers!

Try to stay on the subject: Hospitals are finding their resources stretched thin, ICUs are being overwhelmed. ICU physicians are being forced to work to the point of collapse from exhaustion. It has NOTHING to do with whether patients are filling convention centers!!

 

[legwand77]

There have been a rise in cases, filling up of hospitals, possibly more deaths...

Will Disney close?

Unless the government of FL says...maybe. I really don't know.

Overall Hospitalizations have stayed the same in Florida for over a month, case numbers have declined in the central Florida area so no they are not.

 

[legwand77]

The situation in Arizona has stabilized a bit, but no -- there hasn't been a huge decrease in hospitalization in Arizona in the last 4 days.

Stabilized a bit, No decline at all in the past four days

(narrator - actual data shows a significant decline in the past four days)

source Arizona Dpet. of health as of this posting

 

[legwand77]

The situation in Arizona has stabilized a bit, but no -- there hasn't been a huge decrease in hospitalization in Arizona in the last 4 days.

Do you understand the difference between an ICU and a hospital?!?!? Nobody is claiming HOSPITALS are overflowing with people being thrown out onto the front lawn.

Me: ICUs are way over capacity.
You: There aren't people in convention centers!

Try to stay on the subject: Hospitals are finding their resources stretched thin, ICUs are being overwhelmed. ICU physicians are being forced to work to the point of collapse from exhaustion. It has NOTHING to do with whether patients are filling convention centers!!

ICU's are not way over capacity, very busy in some cases but not over.

 

[KBLovedDisney]

Overall Hospitalizations have stayed the same in Florida for over a month, case numbers have declined in the central Florida area so no they are not.

 

[Parker in NYC]

There have been a rise in cases, filling up of hospitals, possibly more deaths...

Will Disney close?

Unless the government of FL says...maybe. I really don't know.

And that'll be the day!

 

[ToTBellHop]

Uh, that's because it's already torn through the nursing homes in New York. All of the vulnerable people are already dead.

As someone who lives in CT, I can tell you that is false. I personally know 6 people who died from COVID. None were in a nursing home. One was 36 with no known health concerns. The other 5 were my friends’ parents, all of whom were between 55 and 65 years old.

We locked down. We wear masks. And we are largely able to lI’ve our lives now with 80-85% of parents choosing to send their kids to school in September. And my friends and their parents have stopped dying.

I had COVID, wore my goddam mask and stayed away from people, and am unaware of getting anyone (other than my wife...) sick. But I hope you’re happy in Fantasyland with such dumb-o epidemiological views.

 

[havoc315]

ICU's are not way over capacity, very busy in some cases but not over.

That's simply false. I know an intenstivist in a Fort Lauderdale Hospital -- They have a 10 bed ICU. All 10 beds are full and they converted the PACU as extra ICU space. In his 10 years at the hospital, they had only hit 10 patients in the ICU on a handful of occasions. The census was usually 4-6 patients in the ICU at a time. Rarely over 8. When I spoke to him, they had 18 ICU patients -- so 80% over their true capacity. (they were getting ready to convert part of the orthopedic floor if they needed to add more).

The article I cited, discussed an Arizona ICU over capacity.

 

[legwand77]

Rather than looking up and posting memes (that was a good one) , might want to look at the data, here it is