Do you think that Disney world will reclose its gates due to the rising number of COVID cases in Florida and around the country?

[Andrew C]

They haven’t identified an outbreak directly related to the parks that have been open. That doesn’t mean nobody got sick there. How could they possibly identify a theme park as the source if people are only spending a day or 2 there at most? Would it be fair to pin the case on a supermarket or gym because the person visited those places? Same goes for a theme park. Now workers could be different if they spent little time anywhere but home and work over a period of a week or 2. It’s much easier to determine that the theme park is where they likely got sick.

No one has said nobody got sick there. They said they looked and found no connection. Here is the quote. They aren’t aware of any connection and they checked for one. Of course there could have been cases and he said as much. And it doesn’t mean an outbreak can’t occur in the future. But this is what they are seeing now. I’m not stating anything more or less.

“I would be lying to say that we have not seen a case here and there that mention one of the parks. But we have not seen an outbreak in any of the parks that are open so far that we are aware of, and we have searched for it ... we have not found it,” Pino said at a news conference.

 

[oceanbreeze77]

they looked. So they determined the origins of all 12,000 of yesterday’s confirmed infections??

Here is the truth. They don’t know. Based on the limited available evidence, they haven’t seen a big spike that they can definitively attach to the smaller theme park openings.
But they truly don’t know.

that's why its called "community spread." The spread occurred in a community setting

 

[GoofGoof]

No one has said nobody got sick there. They said they looked and found no connection. Here is the quote. They aren’t aware of any connection and they checked for one. Of course there could have been cases and he said as much. And it doesn’t mean an outbreak can’t occur in the future. But this is what they are seeing now.

“I would be lying to say that we have not seen a case here and there that mention one of the parks. But we have not seen an outbreak in any of the parks that are open so far that we are aware of, and we have searched for it ... we have not found it,” Pino said at a news conference.

Right, so they have seen cases where people mention theme park visits, but like I said it would be unfair to characterize them as being definitely from the theme parks because there’s no guarantee they got sick there. The best they could do is look for multiple people who got sick around the same time and all went to the same places, but even that would be really hard for a larger park like Universal and certainly WDW.

Flip the story around. If a department of health official came out tomorrow and said there were confirmed cases linked to Universal or Sea World there would be dozens of posts here saying how it’s impossible to know if thats where the people actually got sick. I’m not sure how they define an outbreak, but I would assume that would be a whole lot more likely amongst CMs that they actually can trace. In a theme park environment you and I can cross paths and never know it. There are thousands of people you come in casual contact with in the course of a day. There’s no way to trace that or even attempt to. At a place like a bar or a backyard BBQ it’s much easier to identify who had contact with each other and link the cases together.

 

[MickeyLuv'r]

No.. I think people want businesses open *safely.*

That does mean closing some businesses in some locations where it's the only effective way to manage the virus.
It means operating other businesses in other locations with preventive measures.

If Florida was not currently having skyrocketing cases and increasing deaths and filled-up ICUs, that's an entirely different conversation.

The question is --- As applied to Disney specifically, is it a significant danger? And let me say this to everyone -- we don't know.

Another facet to this is the optics. "Disney Opens as Virus Surges in FL" is not a good headline for WDW.

 

[havoc315]

I’m confused. Am I supposed to believe the experts in the field or not? I keep getting conflicted messages.

Yes, experts should be believed. Not necessarily political departments, and their spin on the scientists. and the experts must be read carefully.

so where is the peer reviewed study saying that not a single case of Covid was transmitted at Universal, or among people traveling to Universal? (And other theme parks)

All the experts have said is: we traced some of the cases, of the small portion of cases we traced, we haven’t seen an outbreak specifically attributable to theme parks.

IOW — they don’t know. They haven’t seen an outbreak specifically attributable to a theme park, but they can’t rule out that cases are spreading in theme parks, on planes in their way to Orlando, in hotels and restaurants in Orlando and other theme park communities.

In fact, with Orange County now having over 1,000 cases per day... (20 times as much as Manhattan, NY).. it would truly be shocking if no travelers to theme parks were getting infected. You’d have to think theme park visitors have some magic immunity against infection in Orange County... that it’s solely locals getting infected.

In the last 2 days, there have been 2200 positive test results in Orange County. They traced the source all off 2200 infections? None of them were theme park employees? None of them were people visiting theme parks?

what are the experts actually saying:


"In California and Florida, where a lot of the major theme parks are based, you have not only the case rates rising, we also have people from all over the world traveling in and out of [the state]," Dr. Chidinma Chima-Melton, board-certified pulmonologist who sees Covid-19 patients in the ICU at UCLA Medical Center tells CNBC Make It. "It's a powder keg situation, and it's a perfect storm. So, from my perspective, it is not safe at all to go."

The safety recommendations for the general public, such as social distancing and wearing a mask to prevent Covid-19 transmission, are "almost impossible to really implement effectively in an area like a theme park," Dr. Latesha Elopre, assistant professor in the University of Alabama's division of infectious diseases tells CNBC Make It. "Having an environment that you can't really control from a public health standpoint, makes it difficult to say 'yes'

———-
Dr. Anne Rimoin, a professor of epidemiology at the UCLA Fielding School of Public Health and the leader of the UCLA COVID-19 Rapid Response Initiative, told Variety it is a “terrible idea to be opening right now.”

——-

 

[TJJohn12]

...The department of health is not going to do anything with the other contact places except document them. It’s impossible to trace the people you had contact with at those public locations....

It's not impossible, there's just a lack of political and social will to go about it. Other nations are doing that type of tracing using cellphone geolocation data.

That's where Disney actually COULD serve as a more traceable area. Between cell phone MAC addresses and Magicband scans (photopass sensors, ride customization scanners, touch points, cardless purchases) it would not be terribly hard to find many of the people who - for instance - rode IASW within say a 20-30 minute window when a confirmed infected person rode as well. Those people should be tested.

 

[GoofGoof]

It's not impossible, there's just a lack of political and social will to go about it. Other nations are doing that type of tracing using cellphone geolocation data.

That's where Disney actually COULD serve as a more traceable area. Between cell phone MAC addresses and Magicband scans (photopass sensors, ride customization scanners, touch points, cardless purchases) it would not be terribly hard to find many of the people who - for instance - rode IASW within say a 20-30 minute window when a confirmed infected person rode as well. Those people should be tested.

It’s impossible in the US. We had the technology to use the cell phone apps and the overwhelming response was no thanks.
There is no way Disney shares any data they collect from guests with health department officials. It won’t happen.

 

[Andrew C]

Yes, experts should be believed. Not necessarily political departments, and their spin on the scientists. and the experts must be read carefully.

so where is the peer reviewed study saying that not a single case of Covid was transmitted at Universal, or among people traveling to Universal? (And other theme parks)

All the experts have said is: we traced some of the cases, of the small portion of cases we traced, we haven’t seen an outbreak specifically attributable to theme parks.

IOW — they don’t know. They haven’t seen an outbreak specifically attributable to a theme park, but they can’t rule out that cases are spreading in theme parks, on planes in their way to Orlando, in hotels and restaurants in Orlando and other theme park communities.

In fact, with Orange County now having over 1,000 cases per day... (20 times as much as Manhattan, NY).. it would truly be shocking if no travelers to theme parks were getting infected. You’d have to think theme park visitors have some magic immunity against infection in Orange County... that it’s solely locals getting infected.

In the last 2 days, there have been 2200 positive test results in Orange County. They traced the source all off 2200 infections? None of them were theme park employees? None of them were people visiting theme parks?

what are the experts actually saying:


"In California and Florida, where a lot of the major theme parks are based, you have not only the case rates rising, we also have people from all over the world traveling in and out of [the state]," Dr. Chidinma Chima-Melton, board-certified pulmonologist who sees Covid-19 patients in the ICU at UCLA Medical Center tells CNBC Make It. "It's a powder keg situation, and it's a perfect storm. So, from my perspective, it is not safe at all to go."

The safety recommendations for the general public, such as social distancing and wearing a mask to prevent Covid-19 transmission, are "almost impossible to really implement effectively in an area like a theme park," Dr. Latesha Elopre, assistant professor in the University of Alabama's division of infectious diseases tells CNBC Make It. "Having an environment that you can't really control from a public health standpoint, makes it difficult to say 'yes'

———-
Dr. Anne Rimoin, a professor of epidemiology at the UCLA Fielding School of Public Health and the leader of the UCLA COVID-19 Rapid Response Initiative, told Variety it is a “terrible idea to be opening right now.”

——-

Oh my goodness. Again. This is the quote of the Heath official from Thursday. You can get my full opinion about it from my previous post to Goof. Again. I’m not saying anymore or less.

“I would be lying to say that we have not seen a case here and there that mention one of the parks. But we have not seen an outbreak in any of the parks that are open so far that we are aware of, and we have searched for it ... we have not found it,” Pino said at a news conference.”

 

[WDW Pro]

Something many of you are missing is that in the past few days there are some very troubling issues coming up for all of us. Worth a read to assess what's really concerning:

Study suggests coronavirus immunity only lasts a few months (and a 2nd infection could be worse)

Last month I wrote about a Chinese study of the coronavirus which found antibodies to the virus only

hotair.com

 

[GoofGoof]

Oh my goodness. Again. This is the quote of the Heath official from Thursday. You can get my full opinion about it from my previous post to Goof. Again. I’m not saying anymore or less.

“I would be lying to say that we have not seen a case here and there that mention one of the parks. But we have not seen an outbreak in any of the parks that are open so far that we are aware of, and we have searched for it ... we have not found it,” Pino said at a news conference.”

One more point before I let this go. There’s no national database for contact tracing. There’s no system to inform other jurisdictions of infections. When I test positive the department of health in my local county would run the contact tracing. So for example, if 50 people all test positive today and they all visited WDW on July 11 if they live in 50 different counties around the country that’s 50 unique contact tracers. Each person would only see 1 case related to WDW. In other words the Orange County health official only has a piece of the overall puzzle on guests visiting. They would be much more likely to catch an outbreak from workers since they are more likely to be local.

 

[Andrew C]

One more point before I let this go. There’s no national database for contact tracing. There’s no system to inform other jurisdictions of infections. When I test positive the department of health in my local county would run the contact tracing. So for example, if 50 people all test positive today and they all visited WDW on July 11 if they live in 50 different counties around the country that’s 50 unique contact tracers. Each person would only see 1 case related to WDW. In other words the Orange County health official only has a piece of the overall puzzle on guests visiting. They would be much more likely to catch an outbreak from workers since they are more likely to be local.

Someone should probably ask this official how they specifically searched for any type of outbreak from the parks.

 

[lazyboy97o]

One more point before I let this go. There’s no national database for contact tracing. There’s no system to inform other jurisdictions of infections. When I test positive the department of health in my local county would run the contact tracing. So for example, if 50 people all test positive today and they all visited WDW on July 11 if they live in 50 different counties around the country that’s 50 unique contact tracers. Each person would only see 1 case related to WDW. In other words the Orange County health official only has a piece of the overall puzzle on guests visiting. They would be much more likely to catch an outbreak from workers since they are more likely to be local.

Even employees do not necessarily live in Orange County. Many live in Osceola County or even Polk County.

 

[TJJohn12]

It’s impossible in the US. We had the technology to use the cell phone apps and the overwhelming response was no thanks.
There is no way Disney shares any data they collect from guests with health department officials. It won’t happen.

That's largely what I said. WDW is a best case scenario in terms of data and tracing capability. But the shortsightedness and selfishness of folks has stymied real, meaningful contact tracing via something like the in-app green checkmark in China, which is required to enter Shanghai Disney Resort.

That said, I never saw an app offered in the US to track my location, even willingly. I fill out a survey every night with symptoms, location data, activity data, etc. that's run by the Gates Foundation. But I'd gladly give up my geodata to fight a disease that's killing my neighbors. When was the app offered and how was the "overwhelming" response vocalized?

 

[GoofGoof]

Even employees do not necessarily live in Orange County. Many live in Osceola County or even Polk County.

A valid point. It would be possible though for the local county departments of health to talk to each other especially in that area because of the various attractions. It’s conceivable they talk to one or 2 other people in neighboring counties, but it’s unlikely they would reach out to my county up in PA to see if anyone who tested positive happened to visit Universal or Sea World recently.

 

[havoc315]

Oh my goodness. Again. This is the quote of the Heath official from Thursday. You can get my full opinion about it from my previous post to Goof. Again. I’m not saying anymore or less.

“I would be lying to say that we have not seen a case here and there that mention one of the parks. But we have not seen an outbreak in any of the parks that are open so far that we are aware of, and we have searched for it ... we have not found it,” Pino said at a news conference.”

Read it yourself. None “they are aware of” “so far.”
they looked — but don’t tell you how much they looked.

So it’s a pure “we don’t know yet”

 

[TJJohn12]

...but it’s unlikely they would reach out to my county up in PA to see if anyone who tested positive happened to visit Universal or Sea World recently.

THIS! This is why we'll "never" see a major outbreak at WDW unless it's among cast. Is it happening? Likely. Can we see it? Nope. Because we as a society aren't aggregating and sharing data. :-(

 

[lazyboy97o]

That's largely what I said. WDW is a best case scenario in terms of data and tracing capability. But the shortsightedness and selfishness of folks has stymied real, meaningful contact tracing via something like the in-app green checkmark in China, which is required to enter Shanghai Disney Resort.

That said, I never saw an app offered in the US to track my location, even willingly. I fill out a survey every night with symptoms, location data, activity data, etc. that's run by the Gates Foundation. But I'd gladly give up my geodata to fight a disease that's killing my neighbors. When was the app offered and how was the "overwhelming" response vocalized?

Google and Apple pushed out updates to Android and iOS at the end of May that allows for non-location based contact tracing. It is up to individual departments of health to develop and deploy an app. Only a few states have developed an app.

 

[Andrew C]

Read it yourself. None “they are aware of” “so far.”
they looked — but don’t tell you how much they looked.

So it’s a pure “we don’t know yet”

Thanks for your opinion.

 

[Andrew C]

Google and Apple pushed out updates to Android and iOS at the end of May that allows for non-location based contact tracing. It is up to individual departments of health to develop and deploy an app. Only a few states have developed an app.

Are any states actively using it?

 

[GoofGoof]

That's largely what I said. WDW is a best case scenario in terms of data and tracing capability. But the shortsightedness and selfishness of folks has stymied real, meaningful contact tracing via something like the in-app green checkmark in China, which is required to enter Shanghai Disney Resort.

That said, I never saw an app offered in the US to track my location, even willingly. I fill out a survey every night with symptoms, location data, activity data, etc. that's run by the Gates Foundation. But I'd gladly give up my geodata to fight a disease that's killing my neighbors. When was the app offered and how was the "overwhelming" response vocalized?

For the app developed by Google and Apple the companies did not want to be involved directly with the process of finding out who was positive or informing people they had contact with someone who is infected. They required individual states to develop their own apps using the technology but ultimately when someone tests positive it would be the state who was informed not Google or Apple. To my knowledge only a few states went through with the process. It’s ironic that the biggest ”complaint” about the technology was Google and Apple collecting personal information and that’s exactly the opposite of what would have happened. They made sure of it by taking themselves completely out of the picture outside of allowing the use of their devices.