Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Metacritic has it at a 56 at the moment, which is lower than I expected. Here is the full review of the screenshot above in case anyone wants to read it https://www.theguardian.com/film/2025/may/20/lilo-stitch-review-disney

I see “it’s just like the cartoon” popping up

…and…ummm…not sure why that’s a thing?

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

An original screenplay not based directly on previous mediums just surpassed what a Marvel Superhero film is playing.

Here is hoping Elio is good and shows good original storytelling for audiences as well.

Only family movie release remake of a cute character well known worldwide. Memorial Day weekend and elementary schools all over going to end of year movie days at local cheap theater showtimes.

There is zero reason Lilo And Stitch should not print money.

Well it has to be a passable diversion …the critical response is “curious” to this point.

We also have seen very recently that critical response doesn’t mean a whole lot in the “shifting” world of Hollywood…

 

[choco choco]

That’d be quite the feat with a reported budget of $100M and another $100M+ of marketing considering it was projecting around $350M WW this coming weekend before reviews even released.

They should retroactively pay me back for making it through Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny.

 

[Agent H]

He seems to be in the minority…so far

I bet he thinks he’s judging “art”…a common mistake - it appears

I’m confused. Are you trying to make fun of the movie or not?

 

[BrianLo]

Stitch is pretty notable at 100M budget. Seems like one of those direct to D+ ventures Iger pulled out to theatrical. Very smartly, obviously.

Now everyone ready for my unhinged curveball? I think a 3X multiplier is quite justified for Stitch. It may be budgeted as a medium film, but there’s no way they aren’t throwing a typical Disney marketing blitz at it.

 

[LittleBuford]

He seems to be in the minority…so far

I bet he thinks he’s judging “art”…a common mistake - it appears

That doesn’t seem to be the case. I haven’t read his full review (I am seeing the film next weekend and want to avoid reading too much about it beforehand), but from what I can tell, his objection to the remake is that it is a cynical attempt to cash in on the original without being nearly as good as it. That doesn’t seem a highbrow criticism to me; on the contrary, it seems entirely consistent with what most in the forum say about the remakes as a general category. I find it puzzling that the reaction to Lilo & Stitch has been so different here. Why are people so welcoming of and excited for it, in contrast to nearly all the other remakes?

I ask this as someone who is ambivalent about the remakes: I have never enjoyed any as much as the originals, though I find them interesting enough to want to see them. I am approaching Lilo & Stitch with much the same attitude.

 

[DKampy]

Who said you can't have content streaming success? Not mutually exclusive and does not change the fact that the theatrical box office is still the best and fastest way to make your money.

You will notice that many things people want to watch on Netflix are also box office hits of recent are old. With just their own content, they would habe a rougher go. This was an odd comparison.

The point is according to some people here the only path to profitability is through box office…. Even for a film that is close to breaking even like Cap 4…. Well Netflix literally grosses next to nothing at the box office while still spending billions on some of the worst reviewed movies of any studio

By the way you know what the 2nd most profitable streaming service is…. Disney( which includes ESPN and Hulu…. With the caveat that #1 most likely is actually Amazon Prime…. But they don’t report the numbers

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

That doesn’t seem to be the case. I haven’t read his full review (I am seeing the film next weekend and want to avoid reading too much about it beforehand), but from what I can tell, his objection to the remake is that it is a cynical attempt to cash in on the original without being nearly as good as it. That doesn’t seem a highbrow criticism to me; on the contrary, it seems entirely consistent with what most in the forum say about the remakes as a general category. I find it puzzling that the reaction to Lilo & Stitch has been so different here. Why are people so welcoming of and excited for it, in contrast to nearly all the other remakes?

I ask this as someone who is ambivalent about the remakes: I have never enjoyed any as much as the originals, though I find them interesting enough to want to see them. I am approaching Lilo & Stitch with much the same attitude.

The original…honestly…wasn’t that great. Remember, it wasn’t a huge hit.

But its staying power has far outweighed its original reception.

That’s why the BOD is so high.

As far as remakes go…they’re all the same…cookie cutter remakes in an attempt to cash out. None of them really did anything different but tell the same story with more corny humor. That’s also why they’ve run their course. Too many…too much.

I have a hunch that the reviews to that affect won’t matter much here…it does happen.

Not likely to make the same bank…but the super Mario bros movie sits at a 59%…and it didn’t really matter. Minecraft as well.

I expect more of an “over performance” to critical reviews for stitch than the splat 🫟 of like a Snow White.

But just a hunch

 

[TP2000]

It was never black and white. TV, HBO/Cable and Home Video all did this before.

Box office has always and still is the primary correlator to success for most.

Just to throw out this hard data freshly cherry-picked by me , while we wait for the real things to ripen to perfection next month on the lower slopes of Mount Rainier...

Frozen did about 25% of its global box office in the home DVD market. This was right as more and more Americans started streaming Netflix instead of mailing back the DVD's every few weeks. Adjusted for inflation, it would be $1.76 Billion at the box office, and $572 Million from DVD sales over the next year or two.

If Captain America 4 just did $415 Million at the global box office, how much money will it make via streaming rentals in the next year? And how much money will Burbank get from that streaming business after it pays itself via the Disney+ cost center number, and then pays off Amazon Prime and the energy-sucking server farms for delivering that 4K stream?

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I’m confused. Are you trying to make fun of the movie or not?

No…I think it will perform well…no matter what. It would have to be pretty terrible to collapse.

Not always the case.

 

[LittleBuford]

The original…honestly…wasn’t that great. Remember, it wasn’t a huge hit.

But its staying power has far outweighed its original reception.

That’s why the BOD is so high.

As far as remakes go…they’re all the same…cookie cutter remakes in an attempt to cash out. None of them really did anything different but tell the same story with more corny humor. That’s also why they’ve run their course. Too many…too much.

I have a hunch that the reviews to that affect won’t matter much here…it does happen.

Not likely to make the same bank…but the super Mario bros movie sits at a 59%…and it didn’t really matter. Minecraft as well.

I expect more of an “over performance” to critical reviews for stitch than the splat 🫟 of like a Snow White.

But just a hunch

I personally love the original.

I have no doubt the remake will make a lot of money, regardless of what the critics say, and regardless of how good it actually is. I’ll share my thoughts after I see it in a few days.

 

[TP2000]

Stitch is pretty notable at 100M budget. Seems like one of those direct to D+ ventures Iger pulled out to theatrical. Very smartly, obviously.

Now everyone ready for my unhinged curveball? I think a 3X multiplier is quite justified for Stitch. It may be budgeted as a medium film, but there’s no way they aren’t throwing a typical Disney marketing blitz at it.

I've been seeing a lot of commercials for it on YouTube. And I'm certainly not in the demographic.

I like the commercials for Lilo & Stitch better than the commercials I've seen for Elio. That Elio looks like a flop in the making.

With it's very low budget and promising look to it, something tells me Lilo & Stitch will do just fine, even if it doesn't set the box office on fire. (I tried to think of a volcano joke, but couldn't at this late hour)

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I personally love the original.

I have no doubt the remake will make a lot of money, regardless of what the critics say, and regardless of how good it actually is. I’ll share my thoughts after I see it in a few days.

Totally fair

I liked the original too…I just don’t remember it being/getting a huge reaction in the theaters.

But one of the most impressive franchises really they’ve ever had regarding staying power/product push. Lb for lb

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

They should retroactively pay me back for making it through Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny.

I can think of several other LFL films where this applies. And I didn’t it make it through them

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Disregarding the too sugary reviews and likely bonkers low estimate of $250 to be “profitable”…there’s good info in here…especially the chart of remake performance (highlighting the flop of 2023 that was argued vehemently (with tons of conspiracy theories) in this thread)

Say stitch makes $100-125 domestic and $300 global this weekend?…which isn’t much of stretch…

That puts it into a pretty firm success path. But a lot TBD

https://screenrant.com/lilo-stitch-budget-box-office-projections/

 

[Nevermore525]

I like the commercials for Lilo & Stitch better than the commercials I've seen for Elio. That Elio looks like a flop in the making.

Surprised you’ve even seen commercials for Elio. Disney has put minimal effort behind marketing that movie.

They’re putting more on Stitch to make enough to cover whatever potential losses may come for Elio.

Elio being a sci-fi animated original already puts it at a disadvantage based on box office past, even more so with animated originals in general doing barely enough globally to break even (Elemental being the lone exception).

It coming a week after the How to Train Your Dragon live action remake also sets it up for failure. Audiences have shown they’ll gravitate more to nostalgia/familiarity over something new at the box office.

Reviews and word of mouth for Elio have to be exceptional for it to have a shot at doing well, and I just don’t see that being the case with how they’re advertising it. Hopefully they prove me wrong and find success with it.

 

[BrianLo]

If Captain America 4 just did $415 Million at the global box office, how much money will it make via streaming rentals in the next year?

Looking at more modern films, I’d guess at 175-200 across streaming, television and home entertainment. Not just streaming.

And how much money will Burbank get from that streaming business after it pays itself via the Disney+ cost center number, and then pays off Amazon Prime and the energy-sucking server farms for delivering that 4K stream?

The service itself will make over a billion this year. We’ll start to approach the billion a quarter mark within a few years and linear like revenue perhaps in 5.

Recall that’s how much the service makes even after it pays out its content library out of its current 6B+ customer revenues.

 

[Serpico Jones]

Looking at more modern films, I’d guess at 175-200 across streaming, television and home entertainment. Not just streaming.



The service itself will make over a billion this year. We’ll start to approach the billion a quarter mark within a few years and linear like revenue perhaps in 5.

Recall that’s how much the service makes even after it pays out its content library out of its current 6B+ customer revenues.

No way.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Looking at more modern films, I’d guess at 175-200 across streaming, television and home entertainment. Not just streaming.



The service itself will make over a billion this year. We’ll start to approach the billion a quarter mark within a few years and linear like revenue perhaps in 5.

Recall that’s how much the service makes even after it pays out its content library out of its current 6B+ customer revenues.

I’ll play…

Where is that very large profit growth coming from?

 

[Stripes]

I’ll play…

Where is that very large profit growth coming from?

Where has Disney’s streaming profit growth come from so far?

Where has Netflix’s profit growth come from?