Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[Chi84]

What would you say if you started tanking losses at the BO?

There’s no “truth serum” that can detect a pivot. It’s relying on “predictions” and “assumptions”

But it is a pivot. They’ll say that Snow White will make money on D+…but common sense is still a thing…for now.

Well…everywhere but on this thread - at least.

We debate whether bombs are actually bombing? Daily. Like as if the debate is being moderated by bobs stock broker.

Just look for the mushroom cloud above an AMC and the truth can be gleaned

Who are you arguing with?

 

[easyrowrdw]

So you don't think that statement in their year end results is saying that the post-theatrical is making up for the losses at the theaters? I'm sorry, then what do you think it says?

As far as numerical breakdowns, @BrianLo and @brideck have provided the Deadline reports of the breakdowns that show many of Disney movies over the last couple years that were deemed box office losses were actually turning a profits due to post-theatrical revenue.

No, it does not. It says, “costs are expensed as incurred, which may result in a loss on a film in the theatrical markets, including in periods prior to the theatrical release of the film.” Meaning, they spend a lot of money upfront so the movies may not hit profitability for a while - both before they’re released and sometimes not even when the theater run ends. It absolutely does not say post-theater money primarily drives profitability.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

What is the exact stance that you are calling untenable?

There are 955 pages of posts on this thread…covering years of twist and turns…
The pattern is there…

This isn’t the “I don’t understand…” intentional obtuse bit, is it? We’ve addressed that before on many threads.

You know what’s being done here: explaining away failures as “not really failures”

There is no “upside” to box office losses. None. Period. Full stop.
It’s a loss of potential revenue and profit. Everytime. Not just at the ticket window and popcorn stand.

And you give a souless behemoth excuses they don’t even have to work for…as a “fan” …and the chance of anything turning is zero

 

[Disstevefan1]

Look on the bright side. If Snow White 2025 can make about 200 million in post-theatrical revenue it will break even

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Who are you arguing with?

There’s been a 3 page back forth all afternoon (same old stuff)…you jumped in for the lecture…and now Multiple “I don’t understands”?

Really that’s what you got? Just read it. No obligation to agree with anyone…as always.

 

[Disney Irish]

For about the 10 billionth time: box office flops lower the potential for additional revenue for the short, intermediate, and longterm.

Scraping out “coverage” at the box office…which has now been extended to “after the box office” - because they can’t do it there anymore more often than not - is missing what the goals are.

It’s to make easy money…flops hurt that potential revenue and profit.

This is just a ridiculous, untenable stance.

And for the 100 Billionth time, I'm not looking at just Disney, I'm looking at the overall landscape of the theatrical market which is depressed and doesn't look to be getting better anytime soon if ever. Disney just happens to be the focus of the discussion but the overall market is at play here. The market has changed, you even just admit that just a page ago. And with that change comes a focus on post-theatrical being a profit driver. Sure we can debate the impact of that but that doesn't change that it is indeed a profit driver, so say otherwise is just not being honest with that state of the theatrical market in this post-pandemic era. That is my stance, and its not untenable.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Look on the bright side. If Snow White 2025 can make about 200 million in post-theatrical revenue it will break even

It already did…
4 people are streaming one of those Chris hemsworth National Geographic docs and watching a commercial for 1-800-FLOWERS right now!!!

 

[Disney Irish]

No, it does not. It says, “costs are expensed as incurred, which may result in a loss on a film in the theatrical markets, including in periods prior to the theatrical release of the film.” Meaning, they spend a lot of money upfront so the movies may not hit profitability for a while - both before they’re released and sometimes not even when the theater run ends. It absolutely does not say post-theater money primarily drives profitability.

Ok, well we'll just agree to disagree there because others seem to believe it does and brought it up before I even did.

 

[DisneyWarrior27]

Well, looks like Disney’s all-new live-action #LiloAndStitch is faring much better with critics than a certain other Disney live-action remake that Honest Trailers just today aptly named “The Princess and the Slog,” w/ a Rotten Tomatoes score that’s nearly double what that film got.

Can’t wait to see how this will translate into its opening weekend box office and beyond…

 

[Chi84]

There are 955 pages of posts on this thread…covering years of twist and turns…
The pattern is there…

This isn’t the “I don’t understand…” intentional obtuse bit, is it? We’ve addressed that before on many threads.

You know what’s being done here: explaining away failures as “not really failures”

There is no “upside” to box office losses. None. Period. Full stop.
It’s a loss of potential revenue and profit. Everytime. Not just at the ticket window and popcorn stand.

And you give a souless behemoth excuses they don’t even have to work for…as a “fan” …and the chance of anything turning is zero

Well first of all I’m not seeing anyone arguing that there is an upside to a box office flop. At most, they’re arguing that the post-theatrical window has become far more important as theater attendance declines.

I’ve seen a lot of movies in the last five years, none of them in a theater. Someone has to be profiting.

Finally, and this goes across threads, I made a pretty good living being precise with words and using them to express ideas in a clear, straightforward manner. I’m hard-wired that way so if you can’t communicate clearly with me, don’t respond to me at all.

 

[Disney Irish]

But it is a pivot. They’ll say that Snow White will make money on D+…but common sense is still a thing…for now.

No one claimed that with any movie, so don't know why you think some will try to make that claim with Snow White.

I think its pretty much universally agreed that Snow will be one where its pretty much a guarantee they won't turn a profit.

 

[Tha Realest]

And you don't know what those internal goals are though, no one here does. So don't play like you do, you have an opinion based on an assumption, but there is no proof that is actually what Disney's goal are.

Also as discussed I believe your assumptions of goals are outdated and incorrect based on where we are in the post-pandemic era. Disney has provided guidance on what their goals are, so I don't know why you can't accept that.

It’s great you’re part of a Greek chorus that doesn’t care about the box office profitability of Disney’s film slate, but the past and current CEO certainly does.

https://screenrant.com/disney-box-office-disappointments-bob-iger-reaction/

 

[Disney Irish]

It’s great you’re part of a Greek chorus that doesn’t care about the box office profitability of Disney’s film slate, but the past and current CEO certainly does.

https://screenrant.com/disney-box-office-disappointments-bob-iger-reaction/

Funny how some of you will trot out an Iger quote to try to counter an argument, otherwise you guys claim in like every other post that he is ruining the company especially at the box office.

 

[Disstevefan1]

They’ll say that Snow White will make money on D+

Even that is debatable. When Disney puts their own movie on Disney+ its moving fake money internally. There is no actual money coming in from the outside.

And no. No one is actually subscribing to Disney+ to see Snow White 2025....

 

[Disney Irish]

Even that is debatable. When Disney puts their own movie on Disney+ its moving fake money internally. There is no actual money coming in from the outside.

This has been proven false time and again. The subscription fees and now ad revenue pays for the content, and also now makes it profitable. So yes there is money coming from the outside for the service, this is not a shell game. Sorry to burst that bubble.

 

[celluloid]

But didn’t Disney say it was incurring marketing costs not only to get people into theaters but also to get them to watch movies at home?

From what I’ve been reading, movie theater attendance is in a long-term decline. Common sense would dictate that people are choosing to wait a short time to see a movie at home on a streaming service.

Wouldn’t this make post-theatrical more important in coming years?

A lot of maybe there.

But in the end, right now, The theaters are the primary driver to keep marketing towards theaters.


So the statement that theater box office are not the primary means of success, is still false.


There is more content then ever, and the fewer movies that really stand out in the box office, are going to be the biggest hits there AND home.

 

[Disstevefan1]

The subscription fees and now ad revenue pays for the content, and also now makes it profitable.

Its gonna take A LOT of new subs and ads sold to make Snow White 2025 profitable.....

 

[Disney Irish]

Its gonna take A LOT of new subs and ads sold to make Snow White 2025 profitable.....

Jokes aside, again I don't think anyone is trying to claim that Snow White is going to make a profit from D+ (or any other place).

 

[Chi84]

A lot of maybe there.

But in the end, right now, The theaters are the primary driver to keep marketing towards theaters.


So the statement that theater box office are not the primary means of success, is still false.


There is more content then ever, and the fewer movies that really stand out in the box office, are going to be the biggest hits there AND home.

So do you believe box office revenue is always the primary source of a movie’s profit?

I’m only asking because posters are using success, revenue and profitability interchangeably.

 

[celluloid]

So do you believe box office revenue is always the primary source of a movie’s profit?

I’m only asking because posters are using success, revenue and profitability interchangeably.

Alway Typically all of the above.

Not Always absolute for each film. There are randoms called cult following or some that find an audience, but that is not show business norm and nor does anyone count on it becuase theatrical box office is primary driver. Typically, if you had a movie play better in theaters it is going to play better at home.

In Business, it is absolutely right to say theatrical box office is the primary driver of motion picture success.


The chances of your production picking up an audience after not doing well in theaters will be possible, but less likely and not the norm. This is why there are videos like the one posted with the title "Movie bombs that shockingly did well on Netflix" And no business counts on it, only fans will hope and defend it.


Rocky Horror Picture Show did not seek to be the Rocky Horror Picture Show.


And those are likely going to get harder to get as there is more content then ever.

And while not definite, something to chew on
:That means box office success first is just as if not more important, not less.