Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[Sirwalterraleigh]

That doesn’t seem to be the case. I haven’t read his full review (I am seeing the film next weekend and want to avoid reading too much about it beforehand), but from what I can tell, his objection to the remake is that it is a cynical attempt to cash in on the original without being nearly as good as it. That doesn’t seem a highbrow criticism to me; on the contrary, it seems entirely consistent with what most in the forum say about the remakes as a general category. I find it puzzling that the reaction to Lilo & Stitch has been so different here. Why are people so welcoming of and excited for it, in contrast to nearly all the other remakes?

I ask this as someone who is ambivalent about the remakes: I have never enjoyed any as much as the originals, though I find them interesting enough to want to see them. I am approaching Lilo & Stitch with much the same attitude.

The original…honestly…wasn’t that great. Remember, it wasn’t a huge hit.

But its staying power has far outweighed its original reception.

That’s why the BOD is so high.

As far as remakes go…they’re all the same…cookie cutter remakes in an attempt to cash out. None of them really did anything different but tell the same story with more corny humor. That’s also why they’ve run their course. Too many…too much.

I have a hunch that the reviews to that affect won’t matter much here…it does happen.

Not likely to make the same bank…but the super Mario bros movie sits at a 59%…and it didn’t really matter. Minecraft as well.

I expect more of an “over performance” to critical reviews for stitch than the splat 🫟 of like a Snow White.

But just a hunch

 

[TP2000]

It was never black and white. TV, HBO/Cable and Home Video all did this before.

Box office has always and still is the primary correlator to success for most.

Just to throw out this hard data freshly cherry-picked by me , while we wait for the real things to ripen to perfection next month on the lower slopes of Mount Rainier...

Frozen did about 25% of its global box office in the home DVD market. This was right as more and more Americans started streaming Netflix instead of mailing back the DVD's every few weeks. Adjusted for inflation, it would be $1.76 Billion at the box office, and $572 Million from DVD sales over the next year or two.

If Captain America 4 just did $415 Million at the global box office, how much money will it make via streaming rentals in the next year? And how much money will Burbank get from that streaming business after it pays itself via the Disney+ cost center number, and then pays off Amazon Prime and the energy-sucking server farms for delivering that 4K stream?

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I’m confused. Are you trying to make fun of the movie or not?

No…I think it will perform well…no matter what. It would have to be pretty terrible to collapse.

Not always the case.

 

[LittleBuford]

The original…honestly…wasn’t that great. Remember, it wasn’t a huge hit.

But its staying power has far outweighed its original reception.

That’s why the BOD is so high.

As far as remakes go…they’re all the same…cookie cutter remakes in an attempt to cash out. None of them really did anything different but tell the same story with more corny humor. That’s also why they’ve run their course. Too many…too much.

I have a hunch that the reviews to that affect won’t matter much here…it does happen.

Not likely to make the same bank…but the super Mario bros movie sits at a 59%…and it didn’t really matter. Minecraft as well.

I expect more of an “over performance” to critical reviews for stitch than the splat 🫟 of like a Snow White.

But just a hunch

I personally love the original.

I have no doubt the remake will make a lot of money, regardless of what the critics say, and regardless of how good it actually is. I’ll share my thoughts after I see it in a few days.

 

[TP2000]

Stitch is pretty notable at 100M budget. Seems like one of those direct to D+ ventures Iger pulled out to theatrical. Very smartly, obviously.

Now everyone ready for my unhinged curveball? I think a 3X multiplier is quite justified for Stitch. It may be budgeted as a medium film, but there’s no way they aren’t throwing a typical Disney marketing blitz at it.

I've been seeing a lot of commercials for it on YouTube. And I'm certainly not in the demographic.

I like the commercials for Lilo & Stitch better than the commercials I've seen for Elio. That Elio looks like a flop in the making.

With it's very low budget and promising look to it, something tells me Lilo & Stitch will do just fine, even if it doesn't set the box office on fire. (I tried to think of a volcano joke, but couldn't at this late hour)

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I personally love the original.

I have no doubt the remake will make a lot of money, regardless of what the critics say, and regardless of how good it actually is. I’ll share my thoughts after I see it in a few days.

Totally fair

I liked the original too…I just don’t remember it being/getting a huge reaction in the theaters.

But one of the most impressive franchises really they’ve ever had regarding staying power/product push. Lb for lb

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

They should retroactively pay me back for making it through Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny.

I can think of several other LFL films where this applies. And I didn’t it make it through them

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Disregarding the too sugary reviews and likely bonkers low estimate of $250 to be “profitable”…there’s good info in here…especially the chart of remake performance (highlighting the flop of 2023 that was argued vehemently (with tons of conspiracy theories) in this thread)

Say stitch makes $100-125 domestic and $300 global this weekend?…which isn’t much of stretch…

That puts it into a pretty firm success path. But a lot TBD

https://screenrant.com/lilo-stitch-budget-box-office-projections/

 

[Nevermore525]

I like the commercials for Lilo & Stitch better than the commercials I've seen for Elio. That Elio looks like a flop in the making.

Surprised you’ve even seen commercials for Elio. Disney has put minimal effort behind marketing that movie.

They’re putting more on Stitch to make enough to cover whatever potential losses may come for Elio.

Elio being a sci-fi animated original already puts it at a disadvantage based on box office past, even more so with animated originals in general doing barely enough globally to break even (Elemental being the lone exception).

It coming a week after the How to Train Your Dragon live action remake also sets it up for failure. Audiences have shown they’ll gravitate more to nostalgia/familiarity over something new at the box office.

Reviews and word of mouth for Elio have to be exceptional for it to have a shot at doing well, and I just don’t see that being the case with how they’re advertising it. Hopefully they prove me wrong and find success with it.

 

[BrianLo]

If Captain America 4 just did $415 Million at the global box office, how much money will it make via streaming rentals in the next year?

Looking at more modern films, I’d guess at 175-200 across streaming, television and home entertainment. Not just streaming.

And how much money will Burbank get from that streaming business after it pays itself via the Disney+ cost center number, and then pays off Amazon Prime and the energy-sucking server farms for delivering that 4K stream?

The service itself will make over a billion this year. We’ll start to approach the billion a quarter mark within a few years and linear like revenue perhaps in 5.

Recall that’s how much the service makes even after it pays out its content library out of its current 6B+ customer revenues.

 

[Serpico Jones]

Looking at more modern films, I’d guess at 175-200 across streaming, television and home entertainment. Not just streaming.



The service itself will make over a billion this year. We’ll start to approach the billion a quarter mark within a few years and linear like revenue perhaps in 5.

Recall that’s how much the service makes even after it pays out its content library out of its current 6B+ customer revenues.

No way.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Looking at more modern films, I’d guess at 175-200 across streaming, television and home entertainment. Not just streaming.



The service itself will make over a billion this year. We’ll start to approach the billion a quarter mark within a few years and linear like revenue perhaps in 5.

Recall that’s how much the service makes even after it pays out its content library out of its current 6B+ customer revenues.

I’ll play…

Where is that very large profit growth coming from?

 

[Stripes]

I’ll play…

Where is that very large profit growth coming from?

Where has Disney’s streaming profit growth come from so far?

Where has Netflix’s profit growth come from?

 

[erasure fan1]

I have no doubt the remake will make a lot of money, regardless of what the critics say, and regardless of how good it actually is

This is the common thread amongst most all of us. Now weather it's good or was worth it, that's where the debate will be. But similarly to lion king, this could be total dog water and still do great.

 

[Agent H]

That doesn’t seem to be the case. I haven’t read his full review (I am seeing the film next weekend and want to avoid reading too much about it beforehand), but from what I can tell, his objection to the remake is that it is a cynical attempt to cash in on the original without being nearly as good as it. That doesn’t seem a highbrow criticism to me; on the contrary, it seems entirely consistent with what most in the forum say about the remakes as a general category. I find it puzzling that the reaction to Lilo & Stitch has been so different here. Why are people so welcoming of and excited for it, in contrast to nearly all the other remakes?

I ask this as someone who is ambivalent about the remakes: I have never enjoyed any as much as the originals, though I find them interesting enough to want to see them. I am approaching Lilo & Stitch with much the same attitude.

I share your opinion on the remakes and this looks like it’s making some weird creative choices too. (no captain gantu apparently. No idea how that’s going to work.) but I’m hoping this one is successful enough to rejuvenate stitch as a brand long term. I have my fingers crossed for a proper theme park attraction somewhere down the road.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Where has Disney’s streaming profit growth come from so far?

Where has Netflix’s profit growth come from?

So unsustainable growth in subs? Or suddenly ad companies pivoting away from lower fees and partying like it’s 1995 with their wallets again?
$50 a month for Snow White?
All of the above?

 

[Stripes]

So unsustainable growth in subs? Or suddenly ad companies pivoting away from lower fees and partying like it’s 1995 with their wallets again?
$50 a month for Snow White?
All of the above?

Ask Netflix.

Disney guided a 10% operating margin for their entertainment DTC business (Disney+ and Hulu) in FY2026. They initially took a different approach (for obvious reasons), but in the end the company’s streaming business will look more and more like Netflix. It’s just a matter of time.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Ask Netflix.

Disney guided a 10% operating margin for their entertainment DTC business (Disney+ and Hulu) in FY2026. They initially took a different approach (for obvious reasons), but in the end the company’s streaming business will look more and more like Netflix. It’s just a matter of time.


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So “yes” then?

Bread and circuses for all

 

[Serpico Jones]

Netflix has an endless firehose of new content that Disney can’t replicate. They’ll never be as big as Netflix in streaming.

 

[BrianLo]

I’ll play…

Where is that very large profit growth coming from?

Subscriber Price escalation and conversion to more ad based subs leading to higher ARPU - with some sub growth.

Unlike parks, they really under-launched on pricing and still seem to have a long runway with pricing escalation. If there’s one thing we all can agree on its Iger’s ability to increase prices.

Netflix is out in front on pricing and has yet to hit the ceiling for what consumers will tolerate, which is good news for Disney DTC executives.