Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[Stripes]

So “yes” then?

Bread and circuses for all

Ah, quoting Rome while missing the plot. Impressive!

 

[DKampy]

You

Netflix has an endless firehose of new content that Disney can’t replicate. They’ll never be as big as Netflix in streaming.

How much of that new content is watchable… I subscribed to all the major streaming services… after I cut the cord and I watch Netflix the least… that just shows how much more billions Netflix is spending than anyone else

 

[Nevermore525]

Subscriber Price escalation and conversion to more ad based subs leading to higher ARPU - with some sub growth.

Unlike parks, they really under-launched on pricing and still seem to have a long runway with pricing escalation. If there’s one thing we all can agree on its Iger’s ability to increase prices.

Netflix is out in front on pricing and has yet to hit the ceiling for what consumers will tolerate, which is good news for Disney DTC.

Domestic ARPU for D+ is currently about half of what Netflix is last I recall.

 

[Disney Irish]

Netflix has an endless firehose of new content that Disney can’t replicate. They’ll never be as big as Netflix in streaming.

The only benefit Netflix had over D+ in terms of content was they were fed by more than one studio, which has actually ebbed and flowed over the years. But with the addition of Hulu into D+, which can and does get access to much of the same content as Netflix, they appear to be neck-in-neck in terms of access to the volume of new content.

Plus Disney has a whole back catalog of not only their own content for the last 100 years, but also the 20th Century Fox back catalog for the last 100 years. Neither of which have they really tapped into, yet.

So I think Disney actually has access to more total content than Netflix will ever have access to. But even if you don't believe all that, they don't need to be number one or even be as big as Netflix in order to be competitive. They can be a solid number two or three and still reap the same benefits.

 

[BrianLo]

Netflix has an endless firehose of new content that Disney can’t replicate. They’ll never be as big as Netflix in streaming.

They don’t need to be. But what we don’t know is how big Netflix can be. Already it’s bigger than Disney’s peak linear profits.

If Netflix hit a ceiling in 2022 like the market thought at the time, I’d be worried about the general health of streaming. But it definitely didnt.

 

[Serpico Jones]

Combining Hulu into D+ still does not give Disney the scale needed to compete with Netflix.

 

[Agent H]

Netflix has an endless firehose of new content that Disney can’t replicate. They’ll never be as big as Netflix in streaming.

And most of it is watched and forgotten immediately. Personally I only watch like 5 maybe 6 shows on Netflix at this point. Everything else I liked has migrated over to other streaming services.

 

[Disney Irish]

Combining Hulu into D+ still does not give Disney the scale needed to compete with Netflix.

I disagree, but again go back to what I said....

They don't need to be number one or even be as big as Netflix in order to be competitive. They can be a solid number two or three and still reap the same benefits.

 

[Serpico Jones]

And most of it is watched and forgotten immediately. Personally I only watch like 5 maybe 6 shows at Netflix at this point. Everything else I liked has migrated over to other streaming services.

Quality doesn’t really matter. NCIS and The Walking Dead were the highest rated scripted shows ten years ago on television and both are mediocre at best.

 

[Chi84]

Quality doesn’t really matter. NCIS and The Walking Dead were the highest rated scripted shows ten years ago on television and both are mediocre at best.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Subscriber Price escalation and conversion to more ad based subs leading to higher ARPU - with some sub growth.

Unlike parks, they really under-launched on pricing and still seem to have a long runway with pricing escalation. If there’s one thing we all can agree on its Iger’s ability to increase prices.

Netflix is out in front on pricing and has yet to hit the ceiling for what consumers will tolerate, which is good news for Disney DTC executives.

1990’s cable…is what you just described. Linear

Very different set of circumstances now…it may go that way…but far from certain.

The company poised to take control/change the game recently became the world’s biggest media company.

YouTube. That may signal that the changes will continue to come.


I get it…linear was easy and free money. We are just in a different technological place than when it dominated. Not sure the kids will be forking out $500 a month and watching ads to stream in perpetuity. But we’ll see.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

And most of it is watched and forgotten immediately. Personally I only watch like 5 maybe 6 shows at Netflix at this point. Everything else I liked has migrated over to other streaming services.

So like…Disney Junior?

 

[Agent H]

So like…Disney Junior?

well that came entirely out of left field.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

The only benefit Netflix had over D+ in terms of content was they were fed by more than one studio, which has actually ebbed and flowed over the years. But with the addition of Hulu into D+, which can and does get access to much of the same content as Netflix, they appear to be neck-in-neck in terms of access to the volume of new content.

Plus Disney has a whole back catalog of not only their own content for the last 100 years, but also the 20th Century Fox back catalog for the last 100 years. Neither of which have they really tapped into, yet.

So I think Disney actually has access to more total content than Netflix will ever have access to. But even if you don't believe all that, they don't need to be number one or even be as big as Netflix in order to be competitive. They can be a solid number two or three and still reap the same benefits.

Disney+ content is not particularly good…but I know some BO stinkers are on the way to “save it”

They also made comments that they were not really interested in sustained spending on content…which is a no-no. That won’t work.

I’d say Hulu is really what is doing well for them at present…that will be dependent on new content. No ambiguity there

Or maybe espn will catch fire when it becomes an elaborate gambling portal? But then nobody will be able to afford their sub fees

 

[Disney Irish]

Quality doesn’t really matter. NCIS and The Walking Dead were the highest rated scripted shows ten years ago on television and both are mediocre at best.

I think the point being is there is a lot of garbage on Netflix (and many streamers), even the new stuff, and most doesn't get watched, or if it does is quickly forgotten after and never moves the needle, ie doesn't stand the test of time.

So this idea that Netflix just has more new content as you claim doesn't mean its "better", just means it has more new garbage that most won't watch. We're in an era of a glut of content, so much of it isn't good in general, with only a small percentage of it actually being watchable.

 

[Disney Irish]

Disney+ content is not particularly good…

You just described about 99.99997% of all content on all streamers, not just D+.

but I know some BO stinkers are on the way to “save it”

No one ever claimed that.

They also made comments that they were not really interested in sustained spending on content…which is a no-no. That won’t work.

That isn't what was said. What was said was they were parsing back on specific content spends, not that they weren't going to do sustained content spends, that would be nuts. Because how can you maintain a media company on no sustained content spend?

I’d say Hulu is really what is doing well for them at present…that will be dependent on new content. No ambiguity there

Well good thing that Hulu is part of the D+ family now, and so the content for Hulu IS the content for D+.

Or maybe espn will catch fire when it becomes an elaborate gambling portal? But then nobody will be able to afford their sub fees

Well I think this is another avenue of revenue, but not one that will be the core of their earnings in DTC in my opinion.

 

[Wendy Pleakley]

Netflix is definitely quantity over quality. If one doesn't like something there's always 50 other things in their queue.

It's still cheap enough that watching one or two shows/movies a week is decent value. Compared to renting a digital movie at least.

Disney+ may do well with a focus on quality. Andor has been well received and a bit of a water cooler show. Those are becoming few and far between on Netflix. The last was Squid Game maybe?

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Netflix is definitely quantity over quality. If one doesn't like something there's always 50 other things in their queue.

It's still cheap enough that watching one or two shows/movies a week is decent value. Compared to renting a digital movie at least.

Disney+ may do well with a focus on quality. Andor has been well received and a bit of a water cooler show. Those are becoming few and far between on Netflix. The last was Squid Game maybe?

I agree with you…

But there’s something else flawed with the model that I see. They need to go back to full seasons. Figure it out…it increases the draw and decreases the voids that make streams susceptible to cancellations as their fees rise.

Having just watched daredevil and andor…that’s the minumum dose you need. 12…and probably still short. They’ll never pay for 26 episodes…but they need really 18 or so to keep the eyes.

Also…more content = more time = more stories = better characters = better legs longterm.

I mean…you can still get engaged by Star Trek: TNG…because it wasn’t rushed. That kills anything decent today.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

So how’s stitch looking today?

 

[Serpico Jones]

Netflix is definitely quantity over quality. If one doesn't like something there's always 50 other things in their queue.

It's still cheap enough that watching one or two shows/movies a week is decent value. Compared to renting a digital movie at least.

Disney+ may do well with a focus on quality. Andor has been well received and a bit of a water cooler show. Those are becoming few and far between on Netflix. The last was Squid Game maybe?

Adolescence is the best show released this year and will sweep the Emmys. It’s a Netflix show.

It also did huge numbers from a viewership standpoint.