Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[Disney Irish]

Here's a recent article showing It's not just a Disney thing.

According to a new report by Puck, the budget of Mission: Impossible 8 is at least $400 million, meaning it will have to set a franchise record just to break even at the box office. The report details that the massive budget is due to several factors, including the pandemic delaying production, the two Hollywood strikes, and Cruise persuading then-new studio chief Brian Robbins for more money on the last installments due to inflation. While the number can't be confirmed, one insider said the following: “It’s a big, expensive movie—no doubt—but it has enormous value [beyond theatrical revenue]. I’m sure we’d do it all over again.”

However, as is stated in the report, Mission: Impossible - The Final Reckoning is still a great investment for Paramount and will be immensely popular on streaming even if it doesn't make its money back at the box office.

Mission: Impossible 8's Box Office Reportedly Needs To Set New Franchise Record Just To Break Even

Mission: Impossible 8 needs to make tons of money.

screenrant.com

Wow, you mean another Studio that knows the box office isn't going to recoup their investment so is planning for a post-theatrical revenue to bring it to profitability. Well will wonders never cease....

 

[Disstevefan1]

Here's a recent article showing It's not just a Disney thing.

According to a new report by Puck, the budget of Mission: Impossible 8 is at least $400 million, meaning it will have to set a franchise record just to break even at the box office. The report details that the massive budget is due to several factors, including the pandemic delaying production, the two Hollywood strikes, and Cruise persuading then-new studio chief Brian Robbins for more money on the last installments due to inflation. While the number can't be confirmed, one insider said the following: “It’s a big, expensive movie—no doubt—but it has enormous value [beyond theatrical revenue]. I’m sure we’d do it all over again.”

However, as is stated in the report, Mission: Impossible - The Final Reckoning is still a great investment for Paramount and will be immensely popular on streaming even if it doesn't make its money back at the box office.

Mission: Impossible 8's Box Office Reportedly Needs To Set New Franchise Record Just To Break Even

Mission: Impossible 8 needs to make tons of money.

screenrant.com

As I have always said, the budgets are out of control.

Using the 2.5 multiplier (as per the experts on these boards) it needs 1 BILLION at the box office to BREAK EVEN.

Oh boy, its a good thing the box office does not matter anymore (as per the experts on these boards)

 

[Disney Irish]

As I have always said, the budgets are out of control.

Using the 2.5 multiplier (as per the experts on these boards) it needs 1 BILLION at the box office to BREAK EVEN.

Oh boy, its a good thing the box office does not matter anymore (as per the experts on these boards)

Yep, its going to rival Force Awakens and Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom as the most expensive movie of all time but not likely to even come close to either movies box office totals.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

For you kids in the back…

Saying that eventually…basically through residuals…some losers may cover in the end is NOT the same as the goals of the studios making them.

They’re disappointments…there shouldn’t be an argument

To continue to parse a couple of marvel floppers and a live action bomb is like ordering dessert on the titanic…you’re never gonna get it.

Now it’s a big weekend…move on to the new movies…the parks…the heat…something…anything

 

[DisneyWarrior27]

I wouldn't say he doesn't care. This (well-trod) article pretty clearly lays out the strategy and where he thinks the profit centers are. I'll note that he doesn't mention Elio, Freakier Friday, Tron, etc. in the article. That doesn't mean those movies were bad ideas, just that that's not where the expectations are.

https://variety.com/2025/film/news/bob-iger-thunderbolts-marvel-new-movie-strategy-1236389765/

Actually, he did mention Elio twice in the earnings call, compared to mentioning Tron: Ares only once.

 

[Disney Irish]

For you kids in the back…

Saying that eventually…basically through residuals…some losers may cover in the end is NOT the same as the goals of the studios making them.

They’re disappointments…there shouldn’t be an argument

To continue to parse a couple of marvel floppers and a live action bomb is like ordering dessert on the titanic…you’re never gonna get it.

As always you continue to miss the point of what is being discussed.

We're not talking about a movie like Snow White that'll end up losing Disney $100M or more. We're talking about movies that are within $25-30M of breakeven, like Cap4 and most likely Thunderbolts (though it may end up slightly better). Yes if you want to say they are disappointments at the box office, fine, I don't think most would argue with you. But with the post-theatrical those are going to turn a profit, almost immediately after leaving theaters. Because as @BrianLo pointed out the post-theatrical revenue has already been contracted out even before release to theaters in most cases. And that is now something figured into the goal of a movie when they greenlight it, ie the post-theatrical revenue is part of the equation not an afterthought.

Now it’s a big weekend…move on to the new movies…the parks…the heat…something…anything

We'll move on when you move on from posting about Iger, who clearly takes up too much space in your head.

But in general the hope is Stitch brings in big money so that it covers a majority of early 2025 losses so you guys can move on from that.

 

[Disstevefan1]

For you kids in the back…

Saying that eventually…basically through residuals…some losers may cover in the end is NOT the same as the goals of the studios making them.

They’re disappointments…there shouldn’t be an argument

To continue to parse a couple of marvel floppers and a live action bomb is like ordering dessert on the titanic…you’re never gonna get it.

Now it’s a big weekend…move on to the new movies…the parks…the heat…something…anything

Some would says its going to be an EPIC weekend!

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

As always you continue to miss the point of what is being discussed.

We're not talking about a movie like Snow White that'll end up losing Disney $100M or more. We're talking about movies that are within $25-30M of breakeven, like Cap4 and most likely Thunderbolts (though it may end up slightly better). Yes if you want to say they are disappointments at the box office, fine, I don't think most would argue with you. But with the post-theatrical those are going to turn a profit, almost immediately after leaving theaters. Because as @BrianLo pointed out the post-theatrical revenue has already been contracted out even before release to theaters in most cases. And that is now something figured into the goal of a movie when they greenlight it, ie the post-theatrical revenue is part of the equation not an afterthought.


We'll move on when you move on from posting about Iger, who clearly takes up too much space in your head.

But in general the hope is Stitch brings in big money so that it covers a majority of early 2025 loses so you guys can move on from that.

I love you…and this is me saying this…but are you doing this to reread you own material?

Might be tired at this point.

You’re going on about a new “Hollywood model”…and that is kinda a different conversation. I’m not even saying it’s not going that way.

But we’ve seen “predictive” movement in recent years on other fronts…and it resembles a truck fire on the side of the road at this point.

Bombs are not wanted…and far less “acceptable” to the boardroom than you’ve invented in your head. For any of them…but especially for Disney. They have severely taxed their resources…Rep being a big one now…and they need every penny.

That may be counter intuitive…but also true. As is often the case

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Some would says its going to be an EPIC weekend!
View attachment 859738

The 100 degrees is gonna go over well

 

[celluloid]

Yep, its going to rival Force Awakens and Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom as the most expensive movie of all time but not likely to even come close to either movies box office totals.

Almost as if it is a tired franchise choice with diminishing returns.

 

[Disstevefan1]

The 100 degrees is gonna go over well

Well, yes.
One could say is the perfect storm!
100 degree heat index plus opening weekend - could be bad! and I have been seeing some less than positive reports since they opened it to everyone during previews.

From the start, I said this is Universal's game to lose. We are happy NOT to be there on opening day or anytime before the winter. We may check it out in the winter or maybe January.

It will be interesting to watch the YouTubers.

To get back on topic Snow White 2025 is available to rent or buy digitally

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Well, yes.
One could say is the perfect storm!
100 degree heat index plus opening weekend - could be bad! and I have been seeing some less than positive reports since they opened it to everyone during previews.

From the start, I said this is Universal's game to lose. We are happy NOT to be there on opening day or anytime before the winter. We may check it out in the winter or maybe January.

It will be interesting to watch the YouTubers.

To get back on topic Snow White 2025 is available to rent or buy digitally

Well it is a different game when you don’t have a limited invite list

I’m guessing that even though it looks big…they haven’t built enough for smooth operation

Really no park has since Epcot

Maybe IOA…maybe

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Almost as if it is a tired franchise choice with diminishing returns.

Most likely it will…bad sequels have been following a pretty easy pattern of late…with just a few unique exceptions

 

[Disney Irish]

I love you…

Thanks.... I think.

and this is me saying this…but are you doing this to reread you own material?

No, I'm actually having a discussion because that is what we do here. If not then why are we here?

You’re going on about a new “Hollywood model”…and that is kinda a different conversation. I’m not even saying it’s not going that way.

Actually that IS the conversation. Because its not theoretical, its happening now in real time. Its affecting the whole box office now, not 6 months from now, not 3 years from, but now. And every Studio recognizes it, accepts it, and is doing something about it. This is something that some of us have been talking about for the last 5 years, and some of you didn't want to discuss it because you don't believe its happening but its happening. Maybe now some of you are starting to recognize what the rest of us have been talking about.

But we’ve seen “predictive” movement in recent years on other fronts

Not sure what you mean "on other fronts"? But if you mean other industries, then yes and its happening, for example in technology (something which I know a lot of about) it was predicted, and has happened. This is something that all of Hollywood is transitioning to and have been preparing for now for 10 years, and its happening.

Bombs are not wanted…and far less “acceptable” to the boardroom than you’ve invented in head. For any of them…but especially for Disney.

I would agree that "bombs" are not wanted, but some of these wouldn't be considered actual "bomb" outside of Snow. Disappointments yes, and on that I agree, but not outright bombs.

Also I'm not sure why "especially" Disney. Are they somehow more at risk than any other Studio? I don't think so, if anything they can weather the storm better than almost every other Studio in Hollywood, including the one with a direct theme park competitor.

They have severely taxed their resources…Rep being a big one now…and they need every penny.

You'd be surprised but I actually agree with you here. They have stretched their reputation pretty thin the last couple years, but the hope is there is a turn around on that. Stitch will be a test to see if its been stretched too thin to the point of breaking beyond repair or if its on the mend.

 

[easyrowrdw]

Almost as if it is a tired franchise choice with diminishing returns.

I think Barbie and Oppenheimer doomed Dead Reckoning at the box office. The movie had good reviews even if it not quite as good as Fallout (which was the high water mark for the series). But it lost the imax screens and buzz to those two other movies.

Overall, it’s been a very successful franchise at the box office and with critics. $400 million is still nuts though lol

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

@Disney Irish

Actually…the conversion is right up in the title thread

It’s performance at the box office

Not “shifting Hollywood models” or “acceptable levels of diminishing returns”

That might be a good thing to go over…but checking the tape here is that the thread coincides with an increase in the frequency or underachieving franchise titles and some downright disasters.

That’s when the goal posts started to sprout legs.

It’s not the end of all discussions…but the benchmark for success is just not really thad debatable.

The product and the performance is down. Just the facts…
And that doesn’t mean all…some have down well or overachieved. Probably 2 for last year…not bad.

May not be a lot of that this year…but stay tuned on that

 

[choco choco]

LOL. I hope this movie loses half a billion.

 

[Disney Irish]

@Disney Irish

Actually…the conversion is right up in the title thread

It’s performance at the box office

Not “shifting Hollywood models” or “acceptable levels of diminishing returns”

That might be a good thing to go over…but checking the tape here is that the thread coincides with an increase in the frequency or underachieving franchise titles and some downright disasters.

That’s when the goal posts started to sprout legs.

It’s not the end of all discussions…but the benchmark for success is just not really thad debatable.

The product and the performance is down. Just the facts…
And that doesn’t mean all…some have down well or overachieved. Probably 2 for last year…not bad.

May not be a lot of that this year…but stay tuned on that

The conversation on the shift in models and its impact on the box office is just as important as the box office results itself, so yes its actually part of the thread topic, thank you. As it has an effect on overall ticket sales, which has been in the decline for over 20 years and is continuing, which has a direct impact on the box office results. So its all correlated back to the whole box office, and its impact on Disney. Its also not happening in a vacuum, so other micro climates such as Disney's favor or not with the public (which has also been discussed in this thread) are also impactful in the overall box office.

So we're still on topic. Not everything is about the weekly numbers my friend, we can have larger discussions that are separate from that while still talking about them.

 

[Nevermore525]

View attachment 859785

LOL. I hope this movie loses half a billion.

That’d be quite the feat with a reported budget of $100M and another $100M+ of marketing considering it was projecting around $350M WW this coming weekend before reviews even released.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

View attachment 859785

LOL. I hope this movie loses half a billion.

…umm…it’s shocking that a British review trashed it as “rubbish”

That NEVER happens to American popcorn.

Looks like the home press here is more kind…
It’s a cute remake…it should rake