Y'all should ...

[MerlinTheGoat]

Well interesting news here, and I can't say i'm very disappointed. Not yet anyways. If it is cloned I hope WDW ends up getting a version as good though and doesn't suffer from the classic clone downgrade due to time and budget.

I hope this isn't the end of any new development. I'm actually very happy that Universal is starting to squeeze some serious panic out of Disney. Competition is such a great thing, it brings out the best in all companies. Keep that burner lit under their toes and hopefully we'll get some other interesting developments in the other parks from now on too (especially Epcot's Future World someday). Here's to all Florida theme parks trying their best from here onward! Maybe even some better leadership at Disney within the next year or so...

 

[culturenthrills]

Not disagreeing with you, but I think the issue is that once people make the decision to go to Uni for a day or to and even maybe add SW for a day or legoland, a couple very big changes happen to how those people spend their money.

First, If you are not doing WDW 24/7, then you start wondering whether it is really necessary or even worth it to stay on property. Plus, if you are going to Uni, you'll probably rent a car (yes, there are other ways, but they aren't really that great for a family). So, the ME loses its value, and again, you start questioning whether you stay on property. And, when you aren't staying on property, you eat at Disney a lot less - maybe skipping the Disney Breakfast and eating before getting on property or skipping Disney dinner and eating once you leave. So, the issue to Disney is not that it is losing the one or two days to Uni, its that once Uni pops into the plan at all, the entire vacation plan might change, particularly the lucrative hotel and dining piece Disney was counting on - and not just for that one or two days that was lost to Uni, but for many if not all the days.

Second, if we assume people have fixed budgets for their trip, as you pointed out, adding a day or two to the parkhopper doesn't add much to the disney ticket price, but getting a one day or two day Uni pass is a significant expenditure. That money has to come from somewhere, and one place to easily save money is not staying on property, which again adds to my first point. Also, you assume the souvenir budget is fixed, so buying that wand means 1 less plush mickey doll is purchased.

The entire Disney model is focused on creating a captive audience from the moment you land at MCO to the moment you leave. As soon as that audience starts looking at other options, even for just 1 or 2 days of their week-long trip, the entire vacation package can change.

And, to finally get to my point, is that Uni's business model is simple - they just need enough to entice you to give them a chance. And, constant new (and exciting looking) attractions will keep visitors looking their way. Once they crack that door open, Disney's captive audience model starts to fall apart. And, if things keep progressing this way, and Disney has to fight for every day of the visitor's itinerary, they could be a bit of trouble as the product is getting a bit stale (though, hopefully, new things are finally in the pipeline).

This is what some people just don't get. It is not just about attendance, it is about guest spending. You take 1 or 2 days aways from your wdw vacation and that hurts Disney. That is what's happening now. Once people start seeing that there are other things to do in Orlando maybe next time they spend their whole vacation off wdw property and only go to WDW for a day or two cause there is nothing new to see. Universal, SW, Lego and BGT all seem to have long term plans and goals where WDW can't even decide what type of napkins or cups they are gonna carry.

As most of us locals know we have one of the most amazing collection of theme parks and water parks all within an hour or so of each other. As more and more tourist go off property they will find out that there are other parks out there in central florida that offer a world class experience and attractions.

So WDW can sit still while Universal, SeaWorld, Legoland and hell even FunSpot(can't wait for that new wooden coaster) continue to expand and build new attrations but the decline has begun and TDO is scared but are so inept that it will still take years before something is really done at WDW.

You can only jack up prices so much to make your guest spending numbers look good but offer nothing knew and instead keeping cutting back before it bites you in the and guess what it is biting them in the .

 

[GoofGoof]

Not disagreeing with you, but I think the issue is that once people make the decision to go to Uni for a day or to and even maybe add SW for a day or legoland, a couple very big changes happen to how those people spend their money.

First, If you are not doing WDW 24/7, then you start wondering whether it is really necessary or even worth it to stay on property. Plus, if you are going to Uni, you'll probably rent a car (yes, there are other ways, but they aren't really that great for a family). So, the ME loses its value, and again, you start questioning whether you stay on property. And, when you aren't staying on property, you eat at Disney a lot less - maybe skipping the Disney Breakfast and eating before getting on property or skipping Disney dinner and eating once you leave. So, the issue to Disney is not that it is losing the one or two days to Uni, its that once Uni pops into the plan at all, the entire vacation plan might change, particularly the lucrative hotel and dining piece Disney was counting on - and not just for that one or two days that was lost to Uni, but for many if not all the days.

Second, if we assume people have fixed budgets for their trip, as you pointed out, adding a day or two to the parkhopper doesn't add much to the disney ticket price, but getting a one day or two day Uni pass is a significant expenditure. That money has to come from somewhere, and one place to easily save money is not staying on property, which again adds to my first point. Also, you assume the souvenir budget is fixed, so buying that wand means 1 less plush mickey doll is purchased.

The entire Disney model is focused on creating a captive audience from the moment you land at MCO to the moment you leave. As soon as that audience starts looking at other options, even for just 1 or 2 days of their week-long trip, the entire vacation package can change.

And, to finally get to my point, is that Uni's business model is simple - they just need enough to entice you to give them a chance. And, constant new (and exciting looking) attractions will keep visitors looking their way. Once they crack that door open, Disney's captive audience model starts to fall apart. And, if things keep progressing this way, and Disney has to fight for every day of the visitor's itinerary, they could be a bit of trouble as the product is getting a bit stale (though, hopefully, new things are finally in the pipeline).

I see your point, but people have been going to Uni and SW for a long time now. Many, many people. I have gone off property on many trips, but I still go back to WDW. Are there going to be more with the building at Uni and SW? Probably. Will it negatively impact the local market? A lot more than tourists. I don't see this as negatively impacting the tourist travelers for Disney as much due to creative discounting. The free dining locks you into buying all your food before you arrive and eating on property even if you have a rental car. Plus they are still getting your full rack rate for the room. If Universal does buy more land and builds a lot more rooms that could be a game changer. Disney still has a huge edge in lodging and milks it for all it's worth. Right now the model is to keep people on property as long as possible and if they do go off property limit their spending on food (free dining). The merchandising is where they will probably lose out. Lots of Potter gear at the WDW resorts.

 

[GoofGoof]

Well, it's not about knocking Disney out. It's about being competitive. Disney will and should get very nervous if the profit margin starts slipping. And it looks as if that may already be happening.

And as a side, apparently, Universal is very motivated to acquire more land. It's possible. It's just a matter of how much they are willing to pay for it.

Land for Uni would be very scary for WDW. That is the one huge edge they have that Uni has had no answer for so far. If Universal had the room to expand they could seriously overtake WDW. As is they are mostly a compliment to WDW with the mouse still as the main show.

 

[AswaySuller]

DL managed to acquire Lang to expand.
Just because they don't own it now doesn't mean they won't in the future.

 

[Goofyernmost]

Besides what has been said in connection with the Potter stuff at Uni...what are they supposed to react too and with what? If you don't have a property the either equals or surpasses Potter...why waste resources trying to make a silk purse out of a sows ear? Like everything else H. Potter will pass from high density popularity. I do hope that Disney continues, or at the very least starts again, to create imaginative stuff.

 

[GoofGoof]

Besides what has been said in connection with the Potter stuff at Uni...what are they supposed to react too and with what? If you don't have a property the either equals or surpasses Potter...why waste resources trying to make a silk purse out of a sows ear? Like everything else H. Potter will pass from high density popularity. I do hope that Disney continues, or at the very least starts again, to create imaginative stuff.

I hope they try too. The worst thing that can happen for all of us is they give up. As long as this thing is a competition both sides will need to continue to one up each other. That's the best for all of us since we can enjoy both (or all 3 if you throw in SW).

 

[John]

Besides what has been said in connection with the Potter stuff at Uni...what are they supposed to react too and with what? If you don't have a property the either equals or surpasses Potter...why waste resources trying to make a silk purse out of a sows ear? Like everything else H. Potter will pass from high density popularity. I do hope that Disney continues, or at the very least starts again, to create imaginative stuff.

Your right....a better property dosnt exsist. So are they to do nothing? They did create something imaginative....well Pixar did.....its carsland and its comming to WDW.

 

[disney fan 13]

Well, it's not about knocking Disney out. It's about being competitive. Disney will and should get very nervous if the profit margin starts slipping. And it looks as if that may already be happening.

And as a side, apparently, Universal is very motivated to acquire more land. It's possible. It's just a matter of how much they are willing to pay for it.

The Lockheed Land? Since if Uni bought that back it would be major...

 

[tomman710]

Uni has announced no plans for Potter 2 or Transformers yet but both have gone vertical. Just saying.

Point is, these things do not get announced anymore they just happen behind closed doors with little hype from the companies until they feel the time is right. JR said Pandora is going forward. That is more than Uni has said about what they are doing. The exception being the Speilberg leak about Transformers. I consider JR's comments on par with those.

I have eyes though ... who cares what the suits says ... I can see what is happening. There is ZERO movement on Avatar and Potter and Transformers are being constructed.

 

[tomman710]

how can we trust TDO to build this (all the way) since so many announcements never make it to finished product

Here's the short answer: we can't.

And the long answer: we really can't ... until you are actually physically sitting in a ride vehicle and it actually moves.

 

[GoofGoof]

The Lockheed Land? Since if Uni bought that back it would be major...

We kill Disney for being short sighted. From what I remember Universal bought a bunch of land from Lockheed in the 90s then turned around and resold it to some other developer about 10 years ago. They have to be kicking themselves now. I seem to remeber the land was around 2,000 acres which is still tiny compared to WDW, but almost double the size of the current property.

 

[Goofyernmost]

I have eyes though ... who cares what the suits says ... I can see what is happening. There is ZERO movement on Avatar and Potter and Transformers are being constructed.

Personally, I don't think that Avatar is anywhere near as popular or as big a draw as some of you suggest. I don't know any one (kids included) who give a rats tail about Avatar. I could be wrong, of course, since I don't have my fingers on the pulse of the world, but it would surprise me if it had a huge crossover appeal that H. Potter does.

 

[lazyboy97o]

I can't say I disagree with any of this. I am not trying to make excuses for Disney management, but the economics of WDW work a little different than Uni since they are trying to get people to stay longer and stay on property vs day trips. They are losing guests for a day or 2 to Universal, but how many people are going to Orlando for a week and going to WDW for 5 days and Uni for 2? If some of those same people say "we have to go this year since I have to see Potterland" in the end Disney makes out too. They could have drawn those guests for 7 instead of 5 days, but that doesnt equal any more ticket money. They lose a few days of meals out of you. That is why they give you free dining instead of room discounts. In the end even if you eat off property you are still paying for those meals indirectly by passing up room discounts in favor of free dining.

Of course Universal is trying to add hotels and stuff, but like DL it is not really the major draw or the major money maker.

Disney is not making out because people are still shopping and working for discounts. People are also not spending at Disney in the volume that they are spending at Universal. This is what so many of these assessments miss. Disney was convinced people simply had little to no money to spend once at Walt Disney World, but Universal has proven that people will find the money, they're just not interested in what Disney is selling.

They just don't have the land to really make it a game changer. They would need a dozen hotels and probably a third gate to really knock WDW out in my opinion.

Universal does not need to build the hotels. It just needs to encourage people to break away from Disney's system. Once out and comfortable with moving around the Orlando area, it becomes incredibly easy to accept one of the many, far cheaper, non-Disney accommodations.

The fall of Walt Disney World will also not come with a knockout, whenever that time comes. It will be the end of a slow, drawn out process in which we just sort of realize one day that Walt Disney World is no longer king (and in some ways this is already happening). "Not with a bang, but a whimper."

Universal sold that land in the post 9/11 environment when it was fighting for its very existence. Disney has no such excuse and yet has shed a few thousand acres of WDW.

Disney has sold off some sizable chunks of Walt Disney World, not including the already sizable Celebration, Shades of Green, Four Seasons and Golden Oaks properties.

 

[GoofGoof]

Universal sold that land in the post 9/11 environment when it was fighting for its very existence. Disney has no such excuse and yet has shed a few thousand acres of WDW.

True, but this would be the equivalent of Disney selling about 25,000 acres. They did what they had to, but in hindsight if they kept the land they would have been in great position today. They can still buy it back, but it is going to cost them a pretty penny.

 

[GoofGoof]

Disney is not making out because people are still shopping and working for discounts. People are also not spending at Disney in the volume that they are spending at Universal. This is what so many of these assessments miss. Disney was convinced people simply had little to no money to spend once at Walt Disney World, but Universal has proven that people will find the money, they're just not interested in what Disney is selling.

I have heard this argument before. People spend more at Universal than WDW. I have no idea if this is true or not. I am not sure there is anywhere that publicly available data is out there that would quantify how much more people spend at one vs the other. Neither publicly discloses that level of detail. Every time I am at WDW I see people spending a lot at stores, food carts and on all of the special experiences that have popped up to extract more cash from visitors. I also see tons of Universal and Sea World bags at the resorts.

Universal does not need to build the hotels. It just needs to encourage people to break away from Disney's system. Once out and comfortable with moving around the Orlando area, it becomes incredibly easy to accept one of the many, far cheaper, non-Disney accommodations.

The off property accommodations have existed since the beginning of WDW. Nothing new there. Many are very popular and quite good, some not so great. Point is they exist now and always have and always will so I don't see how they will be part of the pending fall of WDW. Just my opinion. Maybe I will be proven wrong.

The fall of Walt Disney World will also not come with a knockout, whenever that time comes. It will be the end of a slow, drawn out process in which we just sort of realize one day that Walt Disney World is no longer king (and in some ways this is already happening). "Not with a bang, but a whimper.".

The "fall of WDW" that you are predicting would be a terrible blow for Universal. I also don't see it happening in my lifetime. Maybe I am just an eternal optimist.

 

[ParentsOf4]

True, but this would be the equivalent of Disney selling about 25,000 acres. They did what they had to, but in hindsight if they kept the land they would have been in great position today. They can still buy it back, but it is going to cost them a pretty penny.

Not really. The 2000 acres Uni was forced to sell was mostly land that could have been developed. RCID's 10-year plan shows how little of the remaining acreage is easily available for development. The last report suggests there's enough left for one major and two minor theme parks. (I strongly suspect they could recover more, if needed, but at increased cost.)

However, my point is that Universal did what it did because it was trying to stay solvent. Disney's only reason for selling land was to increase annual profits. The problem with selling an asset (such as land) is it generates revenue once. It makes the annual statement look good but doesn't help 5 or 10 years down the road. Develop that land wisely and, financially, it's a gift that keeps on giving year after year. TWDC sold land because it was padding annual statements, not because it made long-term financial sense for the company. As a result, we have housing such as Celebration and Golden Oak instead of additional recreational facilities.

 

[disney fan 13]

I have heard this argument before. People spend more at Universal than WDW. I have no idea if this is true or not. I am not sure there is anywhere that publicly available data is out there that would quantify how much more people spend at one vs the other. Neither publicly discloses that level of detail. Every time I am at WDW I see people spending a lot at stores, food carts and on all of the special experiences that have popped up to extract more cash from visitors. I also see tons of Universal and Sea World bags at the resorts.



The off property accommodations have existed since the beginning of WDW. Nothing new there. Many are very popular and quite good, some not so great. Point is they exist now and always have and always will so I don't see how they will be part of the pending fall of WDW. Just my opinion. Maybe I will be proven wrong.


The "fall of WDW" that you are predicting would be a terrible blow for Universal. I also don't see it happening in my lifetime. Maybe I am just an eternal optimist.

http://articles.orlandosentinel.com...rding-world-attendance-gain-universal-orlando

 

[GoofGoof]

http://articles.orlandosentinel.com...rding-world-attendance-gain-universal-orlando

Not trying to argue, but an article from 2010 showing that when Potter opened they sold a lot of souvenirs is not really evidence that guests spend a lot more at Universal than WDW. I never doubted that Potter was a gold mine for merchandise. It is for sure. Disney does pretty well too.

 

[Mouse Detective]

As a result, we have housing/resorts such as Celebration, Golden Oak, and Wyndham Bonnet Creek instead of additional recreational facilities.

I don't believe the so called Bonnet Creek property, home to a Wyndham, Hilton, Waldorf-Astoria was ever Disney property. It's on a wedge of land between I-4 and Disney that for whatever reason Disney never purchased when planning their move into Florida. Disney never sold it because they never owned it. Yet they have to allow open access to it via their road system.