Y'all should ...

orky8

orky8

Well-Known Member
GoofGoof said:
I can't say I disagree with any of this. I am not trying to make excuses for Disney management, but the economics of WDW work a little different than Uni since they are trying to get people to stay longer and stay on property vs day trips. They are losing guests for a day or 2 to Universal, but how many people are going to Orlando for a week and going to WDW for 5 days and Uni for 2? If some of those same people say "we have to go this year since I have to see Potterland" in the end Disney makes out too. They could have drawn those guests for 7 instead of 5 days, but that doesnt equal any more ticket money. They lose a few days of meals out of you. That is why they give you free dining instead of room discounts. In the end even if you eat off property you are still paying for those meals indirectly by passing up room discounts in favor of free dining.

Of course Universal is trying to add hotels and stuff, but like DL it is not really the major draw or the major money maker.
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Not disagreeing with you, but I think the issue is that once people make the decision to go to Uni for a day or to and even maybe add SW for a day or legoland, a couple very big changes happen to how those people spend their money.

First, If you are not doing WDW 24/7, then you start wondering whether it is really necessary or even worth it to stay on property. Plus, if you are going to Uni, you'll probably rent a car (yes, there are other ways, but they aren't really that great for a family). So, the ME loses its value, and again, you start questioning whether you stay on property. And, when you aren't staying on property, you eat at Disney a lot less - maybe skipping the Disney Breakfast and eating before getting on property or skipping Disney dinner and eating once you leave. So, the issue to Disney is not that it is losing the one or two days to Uni, its that once Uni pops into the plan at all, the entire vacation plan might change, particularly the lucrative hotel and dining piece Disney was counting on - and not just for that one or two days that was lost to Uni, but for many if not all the days.

Second, if we assume people have fixed budgets for their trip, as you pointed out, adding a day or two to the parkhopper doesn't add much to the disney ticket price, but getting a one day or two day Uni pass is a significant expenditure. That money has to come from somewhere, and one place to easily save money is not staying on property, which again adds to my first point. Also, you assume the souvenir budget is fixed, so buying that wand means 1 less plush mickey doll is purchased.

The entire Disney model is focused on creating a captive audience from the moment you land at MCO to the moment you leave. As soon as that audience starts looking at other options, even for just 1 or 2 days of their week-long trip, the entire vacation package can change.

And, to finally get to my point, is that Uni's business model is simple - they just need enough to entice you to give them a chance. And, constant new (and exciting looking) attractions will keep visitors looking their way. Once they crack that door open, Disney's captive audience model starts to fall apart. And, if things keep progressing this way, and Disney has to fight for every day of the visitor's itinerary, they could be a bit of trouble as the product is getting a bit stale (though, hopefully, new things are finally in the pipeline).
 
menamechris

menamechris

Well-Known Member
GoofGoof said:
They just don't have the land to really make it a game changer. They would need a dozen hotels and probably a third gate to really knock WDW out in my opinion.
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Well, it's not about knocking Disney out. It's about being competitive. Disney will and should get very nervous if the profit margin starts slipping. And it looks as if that may already be happening.

And as a side, apparently, Universal is very motivated to acquire more land. It's possible. It's just a matter of how much they are willing to pay for it.
 
John

John

Well-Known Member
Anybody who has followed this thing for any lenth of time will see that Carsland will leap frog Avatar...by leaps and bounds. Just follow the money. CL has been a proven winner. No matter what honeymoon period DL experiences it wont even come close to what WDW will get. At this point there is nothing that tells TDO that Avatar will be a homerun. The movie done well....yes, but in a themepark setting....do they really know? Frankly, I cant blame them. Cameron wants big bucks, they know what they have in CL. Most of the R&D money has been spent....just a no brainer.

As far as WDW losing two days on a five day trip? I believe it is way more then just a few prepaid dinners. FOr every guest there is a average per guest spending number....weather is on merch or other ad-ons. When you multiply that number it becomes huge. TDO has absolutely felt the pinch. Somehow I think if they didnt there wouldnt be any such talk at all about expansion....history tells us so.

I also think there is a absolute correlation between JK ROwling and this recent Cameron fiasco. The same attitude and probably the same results.....Think about this, nothing gets done with Cameron. A few years go by and Avatar two and three come out. CL has opened and DIsney has blown thier bank roll on CL. Cameron remebers how he got stiffed at Disney and WAAAAALAAAA Avatar opens up I4......just sayin'
 
englanddg

englanddg

One Little Spark...
orky8 said:
Not disagreeing with you, but I think the issue is that once people make the decision to go to Uni for a day or to and even maybe add SW for a day or legoland, a couple very big changes happen to how those people spend their money.

First, If you are not doing WDW 24/7, then you start wondering whether it is really necessary or even worth it to stay on property. Plus, if you are going to Uni, you'll probably rent a car (yes, there are other ways, but they aren't really that great for a family). So, the ME loses its value, and again, you start questioning whether you stay on property. And, when you aren't staying on property, you eat at Disney a lot less - maybe skipping the Disney Breakfast and eating before getting on property or skipping Disney dinner and eating once you leave. So, the issue to Disney is not that it is losing the one or two days to Uni, its that once Uni pops into the plan at all, the entire vacation plan might change, particularly the lucrative hotel and dining piece Disney was counting on - and not just for that one or two days that was lost to Uni, but for many if not all the days.

Second, if we assume people have fixed budgets for their trip, as you pointed out, adding a day or two to the parkhopper doesn't add much to the disney ticket price, but getting a one day or two day Uni pass is a significant expenditure. That money has to come from somewhere, and one place to easily save money is not staying on property, which again adds to my first point. Also, you assume the souvenir budget is fixed, so buying that wand means 1 less plush mickey doll is purchased.

The entire Disney model is focused on creating a captive audience from the moment you land at MCO to the moment you leave. As soon as that audience starts looking at other options, even for just 1 or 2 days of their week-long trip, the entire vacation package can change.

And, to finally get to my point, is that Uni's business model is simple - they just need enough to entice you to give them a chance. And, constant new (and exciting looking) attractions will keep visitors looking their way. Once they crack that door open, Disney's captive audience model starts to fall apart. And, if things keep progressing this way, and Disney has to fight for every day of the visitor's itinerary, they could be a bit of trouble as the product is getting a bit stale (though, hopefully, new things are finally in the pipeline).
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What a great analysis of the situation. I can attest to this first hand. Once I thought about adding Uni to my trip this year, it completely changed up my trip plan, and Disney lost out on 2 grand or so as a result (I stayed at Royal Pacific, that was most of the cost.

It does cycle though. Next year DCL is getting a huge chunk of my money, and I'll be back to WDW...but I'm already considering scaling back my 10 day tickets and doing Uni again for 2 days and maybe hitting Legoland or Sea World as well.

Anyhow, cheers! Your analysis was spot on, I think.
 
M.rudolf

M.rudolf

Well-Known Member
Mi coaster is still under consideration. Indy/star wars may happen after Carsland, no definates about them yet but they haven't been cut yet. Who knows show me progress on Carsland then I will hope for more
 
Taylor

Taylor

Well-Known Member
M.rudolf said:
Mi coaster is still under consideration. Indy/star wars may happen after Carsland, no definates about them yet but they haven't been cut yet. Who knows show me progress on Carsland then I will hope for more
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I don't know I'm seeing potential flashes of a DHS 2.0 here but then I go back to reality and see that WDW may only get cars
 

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