The Spirited Seventh Heaven ...

[bhg469]

The quote from the podcast: "that the funniest thing about talking with people at Disney theses days 'if we had just known George Lucas was going to put Star Wars on the market we would have never made this deal with James Cameron'"

Hahahaha! They were so proud of avatar too!

 

[the.dreamfinder]

So maybe now might be a good time to put up that Ed Catmull post I've been saving...
http://pando.com/2014/07/07/reveale...imation-in-silicon-valley-wage-fixing-cartel/

 

[seascape]

That is the point you have repeatedly been called out on and repeatedly refused to back up. Why and how does the MagicBand create an image of greater security? How do you know this image has been effective in increasing the utilization of room charging privileges?

Read your question, how and why does magic bands create a greater image of security. I have said I don't have to give any information to the cashier. That is why I feel more secure. I have said it several times. You may not agree but it's a feeling. Others clearly feel the same why because the use of magic band charging is higher than the old room charging. That is what I have been told by people who know. Is this reasonable? Maybe not but feelings don't have to be.

 

[wogwog]

Be careful not to forget that for the 500 with a return time, a virtual queue exists. Wait time is not cut in half.

When someone is given a return time, they are waiting, just not in the physical line.

This was the idea behind the original FastPass. Save guests a spot in line and (hopefully) they’ll go to the shops and buy stuff. The reality was that most guests simply jumped into another Standby line. Effectively, they were in two lines at once, increasing overall demand.

Using your example, if Peter Pan has a capacity of 1000 guests/hour and 1000 people randomly show up to ride it over the course of the hour, then the wait time is essentially 0.

In this example, giving half those people a FP+ return time is meaningless since the ride is essentially a walk-on. In this case, supply equals demand.

Now let’s take the other extreme and say that all 1000 of those people show up at the exact same instant. In this case, the first person in line waits 0 while the last person waits 60 minutes. The average wait time is 30 minutes.

Now let’s say that Disney gives these last 500 people a return time. Those people still wait 31 to 60 minutes; they simply don’t wait in the physical line.

Wait times have not changed; only the geography of where the wait occurs has changed.

Disney wants you to use that time to shop. Me, I'm going to jump in the line for IASW, increasing the demand for that attraction, causing its Standby line wait time to increase.

People step back and listen to @ParentsOf4. He is giving you basic math and physics. You are being played by MM minus and pixie dust. $ should have been spent on the parks.

 

[Quinnmac000]

So maybe now might be a good time to put up that Ed Catmull post I've been saving...
http://pando.com/2014/07/07/reveale...imation-in-silicon-valley-wage-fixing-cartel/

wow thats some serious stuff right there....

 

[lazyboy97o]

Read your question, how and why does magic bands create a greater image of security. I have said I don't have to give any information to the cashier. That is why I feel more secure. I have said it several times. You may not agree but it's a feeling. Others clearly feel the same why because the use of magic band charging is higher than the old room charging. That is what I have been told by people who know. Is this reasonable? Maybe not but feelings don't have to be.

The cards have a name on them.

 

[Mike S]

The quote from the podcast: "that the funniest thing about talking with people at Disney theses days 'if we had just known George Lucas was going to put Star Wars on the market we would have never made this deal with James Cameron'"

At least Animal Kingdom is getting something because of that deal. It could've been Beastly Kingdom but no, Dragons and Unicorns aren't nearly as popular as Avatar I still stand by it though that it could turn out pretty cool when it's finally finished.

 

[seascape]

First, yes you did change your mind. Go back and look at the last three or four words of your post declaring attendance as the determining factor.

Ahhhh ok...so THAT is how bands are safer....or did you miss that first question?

Again it is my belief that attendance based on length of stay is the way to judge if magic bands work. I have said I can come up with an argument against that just like I did with the sales figures. Any reasonable person can come up with both sides of the debate. I believe next gen is working. I can give it credit for increased sales and attendance if I wanted. I can also give reasons why those arguments are wrong. I have shown cost savings which can be proven and no one can debate they exist. The disney unions have shown other savings in tbeir negotiations with management.

If it was a good investment or not depends on if the cost savings and whatever can be proven as extra profits from sales provides enough of a ROR. We can all agree the profits from magic bands are the result of next gen. Maybe we can agree on a percentage of increased sales because some of it has to be. Just like some of the increase in attendance has to be. I would be very happy if the profits from magic bands and cost savings provided 10 to 15 percent of the cost of next gen. That would be somewhere from 100 million a year to 300 million depending on the number you wanted to use. I seriously doubt it was 2 billion but it was probably a little more than 1 billion. Only time will tell who is right.

 

[cw1982]

Read your question, how and why does magic bands create a greater image of security. I have said I don't have to give any information to the cashier. That is why I feel more secure. I have said it several times. You may not agree but it's a feeling. Others clearly feel the same why because the use of magic band charging is higher than the old room charging. That is what I have been told by people who know. Is this reasonable? Maybe not but feelings don't have to be.

Or, charging on the bands is more popular than the old system, if that's true, because it's more convenient to hold up your wrist than digging through your pocket to get a card out of your wallet. You really can't speak for everyone making that change. That's quite the assumption.

 

[lazyboy97o]

Or, charging on the bands is more popular than the old system, if that's true, because it's more convenient to hold up your wrist than digging through your pocket to get a card out of your wallet. You really can't speak for everyone making that change. That's quite the assumption.

Nor is it something that can be guessed due to the prevalence of MagicBands seen throughout the parks. Annual Passholders and offsite visitors are able to use MagicBands but have no access to charging. On-site guests still must opt-in to charging, meaning they must hand over their credit card to an untrustworthy Cast Member to enter into the system.

 

[AEfx]

You take nothing out now, say nothing to the cashier, scan you band and just put your pin in. That is as secure as you can get. I used to use my credit card all the time at food and wine and now with flower and garden I don't have to. In my case this is hundreds of swipe fees a week that Disney saves for 3 weeks just from my wife and I. It does not matter what you or others think of the way I do things and I don't care. Disney is saving money. That is a fact. If they publicize or not is irrelevant. Facts are facts.

You haven't the foggiest clue about what you are talking about.

Do you then pay for your resort bill in cash after your band-charging-spree? No, you pay it with...a credit card.

The largest part of credit card swipe fees are a percentage of TOTAL VALUE. Usually 2-3%. There are some antiquated low-volume systems (something that a tiny business like your barber, or a no-brand mom and pop store) that have a small surcharge ("minimum fee") on tiny transactions but a merchant as large as Disney isn't likely paying that to begin with. If their deal with their processor is so terrible that by some chance they do, it's a small amount compared to the overall paying of a flat percentage of sales.

So if you pay it all at once at the end of your trip or pay out each transaction, it all pretty much adds up to the same overall fee for Disney. Any possible tiny savings would take 300-400 years to even begin to make a dent in the 1.5B cost of the system. And the kicker is, all these charges are already rolled into the prices of everything they sell - so everyone is paying for them, even if they pay cash.

But let's say, by some rarity you are super-unique and do pay the end bill with a different form of payment - the pittance saved by Disney on the subset of folks who don't pay with a credit card from the subset of folks who even have a magic band is going to be infinitesimal.

What I haven't seen anyone mention about the band system, just like the resort charge before it - is that any illusion of safety is just that - illusion. All the fancy credit card fraud protections that are in place for most card holders do not apply in the same way to Disney keeping your tab and charging it all at once. It's one charge - that you can dispute, or not, but you are going to have a hell of a time disputing the entire thing vs. a series of smaller transactions. Not just for fraud, but for things like item replacement/warranty privileges a lot of cards have, as well (if, say, something is broken in transit home, etc.).

Basically, you are fully trusting Disney to add everything up and keep careful records, which to get your credit card company would likely have to subpoena. Most of the current legal protections you enjoy are rendered moot in this case.

But hey, you can bling out that bracelet with pretty jewels and save your wrist the agony of having to take a credit card out to pay for your transactions, so that's all totally worth it.

But that's my whole point... you keep saying you "feel" the bands are safer, but you have yet to provide any explanation beyond "this is what I think." All I was asking for was an explanation, and you don't want to provide one. "Because I said so" doesn't hold up as a viable argument.

It's not. It's simply technophobe/technoilliterate illusion. Just like folks who think sending a check through the mail (which is, by far, the most dangerous thing you can do with your financial information - using the data on that check, which never actually goes to the company you are paying anyway - it goes to a "lockbox" that services 100's of companies, someone can clean out your bank account via wire, at which point it's nearly impossible to recover) is "safer" than paying a bill online.

He's the type that Disney is banking on, though, quite literally - but as we've said from the beginning, the amount of foolish folks that actually spend more and fall for all this, and actually spend a few percent more than they did to begin with, are simply inconsequential financially overall. Even if every single person willy-nilly increased their spending due to the novelty of an internal currency (which is never going to happen, as not everyone is ever going to have a bracelet), the couple of percent increase still wouldn't be anywhere near worth the cost of this system, unless, again, it's amortized over hundreds of years.

 

[Funmeister]

Again it is my belief that attendance based on length of stay is the way to judge if magic bands work. I have said I can come up with an argument against that just like I did with the sales figures. Any reasonable person can come up with both sides of the debate. I believe next gen is working. I can give it credit for increased sales and attendance if I wanted. I can also give reasons why those arguments are wrong. I have shown cost savings which can be proven and no one can debate they exist. The disney unions have shown other savings in tbeir negotiations with management.

If it was a good investment or not depends on if the cost savings and whatever can be proven as extra profits from sales provides enough of a ROR. We can all agree the profits from magic bands are the result of next gen. Maybe we can agree on a percentage of increased sales because some of it has to be. Just like some of the increase in attendance has to be. I would be very happy if the profits from magic bands and cost savings provided 10 to 15 percent of the cost of next gen. That would be somewhere from 100 million a year to 300 million depending on the number you wanted to use. I seriously doubt it was 2 billion but it was probably a little more than 1 billion. Only time will tell who is right.

So that is why you find bands safer?

 

[PrincessNelly_NJ]

You haven't the foggiest clue about what you are talking about.

Do you then pay for your resort bill in cash after your band-charging-spree? No, you pay it with...a credit card.

The largest part of credit card swipe fees are a percentage of TOTAL VALUE. Usually 2-3%. There are some antiquated low-volume systems (something that a tiny business like your barber, or a no-brand mom and pop store) that have a small surcharge ("minimum fee") on tiny transactions but a merchant as large as Disney isn't likely paying that to begin with. If their deal with their processor is so terrible that by some chance they do, it's a small amount compared to the overall paying of a flat percentage of sales.

So if you pay it all at once at the end of your trip or pay out each transaction, it all pretty much adds up to the same overall fee for Disney. Any possible tiny savings would take 300-400 years to even begin to make a dent in the 1.5B cost of the system. And the kicker is, all these charges are already rolled into the prices of everything they sell - so everyone is paying for them, even if they pay cash.

But let's say, by some rarity you are super-unique and do pay the end bill with a different form of payment - the pittance saved by Disney on the subset of folks who don't pay with a credit card from the subset of folks who even have a magic band is going to be infinitesimal.

What I haven't seen anyone mention about the band system, just like the resort charge before it - is that any illusion of safety is just that - illusion. All the fancy credit card fraud protections that are in place for most card holders do not apply in the same way to Disney keeping your tab and charging it all at once. It's one charge - that you can dispute, or not, but you are going to have a hell of a time disputing the entire thing vs. a series of smaller transactions. Not just for fraud, but for things like item replacement/warranty privileges a lot of cards have, as well (if, say, something is broken in transit home, etc.).

Basically, you are fully trusting Disney to add everything up and keep careful records, which to get your credit card company would likely have to subpoena. Most of the current legal protections you enjoy are rendered moot in this case.

But hey, you can bling out that bracelet with pretty jewels and save your wrist the agony of having to take a credit card out to pay for your transactions, so that's all totally worth it.



It's not. It's simply technophobe/technoilliterate illusion. Just like folks who think sending a check through the mail (which is, by far, the most dangerous thing you can do with your financial information - using the data on that check, which never actually goes to the company you are paying anyway - it goes to a "lockbox" that services 100's of companies, someone can clean out your bank account via wire, at which point it's nearly impossible to recover) is "safer" than paying a bill online.

He's the type that Disney is banking on, though, quite literally - but as we've said from the beginning, the amount of foolish folks that actually spend more and fall for all this, and actually spend a few percent more than they did to begin with, are simply inconsequential financially overall. Even if every single person willy-nilly increased their spending due to the novelty of an internal currency (which is never going to happen, as not everyone is ever going to have a bracelet), the couple of percent increase still wouldn't be anywhere near worth the cost of this system, unless, again, it's amortized over hundreds of years.

Best post I've read all day!

 

[seascape]

You haven't the foggiest clue about what you are talking about.

Do you then pay for your resort bill in cash after your band-charging-spree? No, you pay it with...a credit card.

The largest part of credit card swipe fees are a percentage of TOTAL VALUE. Usually 2-3%. There are some antiquated low-volume systems (something that a tiny business like your barber, or a no-brand mom and pop store) that have a small surcharge ("minimum fee") on tiny transactions but a merchant as large as Disney isn't likely paying that to begin with. If their deal with their processor is so terrible that by some chance they do, it's a small amount compared to the overall paying of a flat percentage of sales.

So if you pay it all at once at the end of your trip or pay out each transaction, it all pretty much adds up to the same overall fee for Disney. Any possible tiny savings would take 300-400 years to even begin to make a dent in the 1.5B cost of the system. And the kicker is, all these charges are already rolled into the prices of everything they sell - so everyone is paying for them, even if they pay cash.

But let's say, by some rarity you are super-unique and do pay the end bill with a different form of payment - the pittance saved by Disney on the subset of folks who don't pay with a credit card from the subset of folks who even have a magic band is going to be infinitesimal.

What I haven't seen anyone mention about the band system, just like the resort charge before it - is that any illusion of safety is just that - illusion. All the fancy credit card fraud protections that are in place for most card holders do not apply in the same way to Disney keeping your tab and charging it all at once. It's one charge - that you can dispute, or not, but you are going to have a hell of a time disputing the entire thing vs. a series of smaller transactions. Not just for fraud, but for things like item replacement/warranty privileges a lot of cards have, as well (if, say, something is broken in transit home, etc.).

Basically, you are fully trusting Disney to add everything up and keep careful records, which to get your credit card company would likely have to subpoena. Most of the current legal protections you enjoy are rendered moot in this case.

But hey, you can bling out that bracelet with pretty jewels and save your wrist the agony of having to take a credit card out to pay for your transactions, so that's all totally worth it.



It's not. It's simply technophobe/technoilliterate illusion. Just like folks who think sending a check through the mail (which is, by far, the most dangerous thing you can do with your financial information - using the data on that check, which never actually goes to the company you are paying anyway - it goes to a "lockbox" that services 100's of companies, someone can clean out your bank account via wire, at which point it's nearly impossible to recover) is "safer" than paying a bill online.

He's the type that Disney is banking on, though, quite literally - but as we've said from the beginning, the amount of foolish folks that actually spend more and fall for all this, and actually spend a few percent more than they did to begin with, are simply inconsequential financially overall. Even if every single person willy-nilly increased their spending due to the novelty of an internal currency (which is never going to happen, as not everyone is ever going to have a bracelet), the couple of percent increase still wouldn't be anywhere near worth the cost of this system, unless, again, it's amortized over hundreds of years.

At the food both at food and wine and flower and garden most of my charges are $5.00. I make lots of them and so does my wife. We sample each both. We don't drunk much. Those small charges all have minimum fees. Disney adds them up and bills my credit card. Because my average daily bill is huge with all the stuff my wife buys Disney plays a lower fee than they would have if I had charged each transaction separately. As for the detailed billing they send me it actually is much better than what the credit card company does. I check my credit card daily and my Disney bill on every transaction. I love that the Disney bill shows every store and it's location where as the credit card statement only says Disney dining or store. Never very exact. I am sure just on my charges Disney saves over $20.00. From one customer staying 3 weeks a year in one DVC. A fraction of 1% of total charges is a huge amount. Even saving 5 cents per.transaction at food and wine for people staying on property adds up to a huge number.

 

[asianway]

At the food both at food and wine and flower and garden most of my charges are $5.00. I make lots of them and so does my wife. We sample each both. We don't drunk much. Those small charges all have minimum fees. Disney adds them up and bills my credit card. Because my average daily bill is huge with all the stuff my wife buys Disney plays a lower fee than they would have if I had charged each transaction separately. As for the detailed billing they send me it actually is much better than what the credit card company does. I check my credit card daily and my Disney bill on every transaction. I love that the Disney bill shows every store and it's location where as the credit card statement only says Disney dining or store. Never very exact. I am sure just on my charges Disney saves over $20.00. From one customer staying 3 weeks a year in one DVC. A fraction of 1% of total charges is a huge amount. Even saving 5 cents per.transaction at food and wine for people staying on property adds up to a huge number.

Every disney shop and f&b outlet shows up in detail on a cc statement, what drugs are you on?

 

[RSoxNo1]

Open! Open!! Open!!!

I am not reciting an old Target Black Friday commercial. Nope, the wait is almost over and I am too excited to sleep. Tomorrow ushers in a new era in the O-Town theme park wars and in a way that could be a game-changer for the industry.

To quote another old commercial, a WDW, commercial: ''I'm too excited to sleep!''

Well, maybe not ... Sleep is important for one's health, after all.

I have enjoyed skimming the thread during my 'absence' from MAGIC. Nice to see posts from @marni1971 and @Lee and @ParentsOf4 that are of the typical quality one associates with those posters. I don't know why anyone thinks I am on a vacation. Anyone will tell you that O-Town in July is anything but relaxing. Nope. Just full of hot air, humidity and thunder.

Oh, and Lee ... You are a hillbilly smart-!

Don't know what more to say right now, other than Frozen fireworks, Fantasmic and late night at Applebee's ... Yep, who needs the Hogwarts Express and that Gringotts ride?

I'll rejoin y'all in a little while with tales aplenty. Just keep believing in MAGIC!

I have lost some respect for you... Applebee's? Really?

 

[Goofyernmost]

SDMT wasn't underwhelming for this adult. I actually went in with such low expectations from the posts here before it had even opened and was greatly surprised. Nice little coaster with a pretty big drop and nice themeing.

So yeah, that part can certainly be contended. Because it remains a matter of opinion.

But Potter Swatter it deff is not.

Nor do I believe it was ever intended to be one.

 

[Nubs70]

Again it is my belief that attendance based on length of stay is the way to judge if magic bands work. I have said I can come up with an argument against that just like I did with the sales figures. Any reasonable person can come up with both sides of the debate. I believe next gen is working. I can give it credit for increased sales and attendance if I wanted. I can also give reasons why those arguments are wrong. I have shown cost savings which can be proven and no one can debate they exist. The disney unions have shown other savings in tbeir negotiations with management.

If it was a good investment or not depends on if the cost savings and whatever can be proven as extra profits from sales provides enough of a ROR. We can all agree the profits from magic bands are the result of next gen. Maybe we can agree on a percentage of increased sales because some of it has to be. Just like some of the increase in attendance has to be. I would be very happy if the profits from magic bands and cost savings provided 10 to 15 percent of the cost of next gen. That would be somewhere from 100 million a year to 300 million depending on the number you wanted to use. I seriously doubt it was 2 billion but it was probably a little more than 1 billion. Only time will tell who is right.

By ROR I presume you are speaking of ROI. The investment metric of concern is NPV or net present value. A project can have a positive ROI but yield a negative NPV when taken into context to interest rate whether the interest rate is WACC, 10 year bond yield, or the mattress interest return. A positive ROI and negative NPV means you are misallocating capital.

 

[AEfx]

At the food both at food and wine and flower and garden most of my charges are $5.00. I make lots of them and so does my wife. We sample each both. We don't drunk much. Those small charges all have minimum fees. Disney adds them up and bills my credit card. Because my average daily bill is huge with all the stuff my wife buys Disney plays a lower fee than they would have if I had charged each transaction separately. As for the detailed billing they send me it actually is much better than what the credit card company does. I check my credit card daily and my Disney bill on every transaction. I love that the Disney bill shows every store and it's location where as the credit card statement only says Disney dining or store. Never very exact. I am sure just on my charges Disney saves over $20.00. From one customer staying 3 weeks a year in one DVC. A fraction of 1% of total charges is a huge amount. Even saving 5 cents per.transaction at food and wine for people staying on property adds up to a huge number.

I rarely pull the "expert" card (not only do I rarely have occasion to do so here, but most especially because I have to go to the annoyance of doing this*), but I will in this case.

I am a Fraud Analyst. At a credit card company.

So forgive me for using actual facts vs. your guesstimates and "feeling" of security.

I'll restate my original premise: you haven't the foggiest clue what you are talking about.

*IF* Disney pays a minimum swipe fee, which I doubt they do (they'd be idiotic to not have a better deal with their credit card processor, and a processor wants Disney as a client so it's doubtful Disney actually pays the minimum - one way or another, it likely is waived), how often do you charge less than five bucks? Because most of them kick in at $4.99 or less. What's the cheapest thing at F&W, or at most places at WDW? $2.39 for a soda is about as cheap as it gets - so unless you and your wife are standing in line and paying separately, what's $2.39+$2.39+tax? Just over five bucks... (though you guys seem like special snowflakes it wouldn't surprise me if in fact that's what you will say you do).

As to that detailed listing Disney gives you - lot of good it does your credit card company. It's meaningless from a legal standpoint and while it may contain data you care about, it does nothing to investigate Fraud. In order to do that, you need info about authorization numbers, terminal IDs, etc. that won't show there.

The reason you enjoy protections on credit card transactions is because of laws that say so - and because it's all about upholding the law, not about being "magical". Should any dispute arise, since your credit card company does not have possession of the transaction data (every single card transaction generates an enormous amount of data that you as a consumer never see), it would need to be subpoenaed from Disney - as it would need to be notarized, and even if you gave permission for them to share info, a company as large as Disney isn't going to send out a notarized document without a legal request. A notarized affidavit from you might do it, but as much as Disney protects themselves from litigation it likely would still require a subpoena.

In any case, as I said, you would have an almost impossible time disputing any one of those transactions, and since you can't dispute the entire amount of the actual credit card charge, what would most likely happen is you would be refereed back to the merchant (Disney) as you are not technically disputing the charge but a portion of it, which most credit card companies would categorize as a "merchant issue" and not Fraud.


All that said, a billion and a half bucks is a lot of money. And even if you were totally correct, which I can categorically state you are not, it's still the same essential problem with MM+ as it was to begin with - designed to eek a few more cents out of the guests that already come, under the same misguided "the Orlando market is saturated" argument that Universal has, just today, yet again, proven to be absolutely false.


*Any posting made has not been approved, endorsed, or reviewed by the company I am employed with, they are in no way associated with any statements I may make, do not construe any information here as financial advice, please consult a certified financial professional for advice on your personal financial situation, yadda yadda...

 

[lazyboy97o]

Every disney shop and f&b outlet shows up in detail on a cc statement, what drugs are you on?

The guy just claimed to make something in the neighborhood of 400 (minimum) credit card swipes during a visit to Walt Disney World. Even on a two week holiday that is nearly 30 swipes per day.