PrincessNelly_NJ
Well-Known Member
DiagonAlley was trending until about 9 am and now #HarryPotterIsBack is trending Worldwide on twitter today! What an amazing day for Potter fans! 
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The Spirited Seventh Heaven ...
- Thread starter WDW1974
- Start date
sshindel
The Epcot Manifesto
But, in this instance, the ONLY people who are going to benefit out of this are for the first 1000 people a day. The rest of the day, the ride is operating at capacity, the line will be existing when they step in. Customer 1001 does not have a 0 minute wait time and back up to 60 at customer 2000. The average wait time for the first hour is 30 minutes. After that, people continuing to show up adding into a line of 1000 people will wait the full 60 minutes. Spread this over a 10 hour day (for easy math) and you have 1 hour of 30 minute waits, and 9 hours of 60 minute waits. That would be an average, over the course of the day, of 57 minute wait time.
I don't agree with the fact that you are still waiting, just not in line. If I'm able to go out and do whatever I plan on doing shopping, or as you suggest riding another ride, I'm not waiting in line for Peter Pan in anything other than a virtual sense. My wait time for Pan is 0 during that time, because I'm doing something other than waiting.
Now, if I decide that I'm just going to stand outside and stare at the Pan attraction until my time comes to ride with my FP, then aside from being a pretty big idiot, I have a true wait time associated with it. If however I've taken this time to ride IASW, eat my lunch, and buy my kid a stuffed toy, these are all things I've now gained that I would not be able to do while standing in standby line. That does not count as waiting in line, thus the wait time for the theoretical 50% of the population has been reduced.
this has been a summer long issue at wdw
xdan0920
Think for yourselfer
Spectacular.
The Potter Swatter?A spinner? A SPINNER?
What karma that this rumor would turn up today of all days.
Pumbas Nakasak
Heading for the great escape.
Indeed, shocked, stunned and my gabber is well and truly flabbered
xdan0920
Think for yourselfer
I was waiting for that point to be made.
Yeah, uh, no one would do that. :lookaround:
Cesar R M
Well-Known Member
The dwarves mine train is down again?
mahnamahna101
Well-Known Member
I guess those year to year declines at AK, HS and Epcot aren't too far fetched after all..
ABQ
Well-Known Member
It was, but it's up now, and so are wait times to the usual July 8th averages if you compare current to historical.
ParentsOf4
Well-Known Member
You're not taking into consideration what is happening to you when you wait in the Standby line for someone else who is 'cutting' ahead of you in the FP+ line.
For 3 attractions at the Magic Kingdom, you waited less time. For every other attraction with FP+, you waited more time.
If you intend to ride only 3 attractions and use the rest of your time shopping, then you are way ahead of the game (and Disney's dream customer
).However, if you actually intend to ride more than 6 attractions that have FP+, then you will end up spending more time in line.
FigmentJedi
Well-Known Member
Well the double whammy of an open Diagon Alley and the new Pottermore update getting into "Where are they now?" territory with the now 30 something crew at the 2014 Quidditch World Cup helped a lot.DiagonAlley was trending until about 9 am and now #HarryPotterIsBack is trending Worldwide on twitter today! What an amazing day for Potter fans!
sshindel
The Epcot Manifesto
But then we have to take into account which rides I have chosen fastpasses for, and which ones I've decided to ride standby. If I've used FP+ to schedule the 3 rides with the longest lines, and spend the rest of the day riding attractions with far shorter lines in standby, then I still will likely have spent less time in line over the course of the day.You're not taking into consideration what is happening to you when you wait in the Standby line for someone else who is 'cutting' ahead of you in the FP+ line.
For 3 attractions at the Magic Kingdom, you waited less time. For every other attraction with FP+, you waited more time.
If you intend to ride only 3 attractions and use the rest of your time shopping, then you are way ahead of the game (and Disney's dream customer
However, if you actually intend to ride more than 6 attractions that have FP+, then you will end up spending more time in line.
Lets say at MK (using the numbers recorded earlier today in this thread), I FP+ Space Mountain (55 min), Peter Pan (60 min), and Splash Mountain (90 min) and it cuts the average wait time down to 10 minutes for each ride (assuming it takes 10 minutes to get through the FP line).
So, now instead of spending 205 minutes in line, I've spent 30.
I then spend the rest of the day riding rides with, on average, a far shorter standby line due to either lessened popularity or increased capacity. I've cut 175 minutes wait time out of my day using FP+. The increase in standby time for every single attraction I ride would have to total up to 175 minutes or more in order to make it so that I waited more time in aggregate. Using the 6 attractions number, that means that the 6 remaining attractions standby times would have to have increased an average of 29 minutes per attraction in order for me to be at a net-even point.
bhg469
Well-Known Member
My wedding was great except for the fact my wife and I were talking to everyone and barely got to eat. We had a grill station with a guy making beef tenderloin to order and I only saw him once, before the wedding I was hoping to be best friends with the grill guy. So if i got the steak I wanted my wedding would be higherA wedding is a wedding if you are talking about significant life events. Marriage is usually always towards the top, assuming it all works out. I would think that as far as life events go, it would be something like this:
1. Marriage
2. Birth of Child(ren)
3. Child gets married
4. Birth of grandchild(ren)
.
.
.
.
.
999. New Star Wars Movie Opens (who am I kidding, that would be #5)
1000. Opening of Diagon Alley
I don't know, call me crazy.
ParentsOf4
Well-Known Member
Please let me try one more time.
Continuing with the example, let’s recall that 1000 people showed up at the exact same instant for Peter Pan, which has a capacity of 1000 guests/hour. In this case, the first person in line waited 0 while the last person waited 60 minutes. The average wait time was 30 minutes.
Now let’s say that Disney gave the last 500 a return time. Those people still waited 30 to 60 minutes; they simply didn't wait in the physical line.
Now, taking this to the next step to simulate the effects of FastPass+, let’s say Disney evenly distributed the return times across the entire hour.
The first person in the Standby line still waited 0.
However, the second person in the Standby line, instead of immediately boarding after the first person, now had to wait for someone with a return time. They had to wait longer than if there was no FastPass+.
Remember, that person with the FP+ return time represented the 501st person in line. They didn’t have to stand in line at all. If things were ‘fair’, then they should have waited 30 minutes.
Instead, they were allowed to ‘cut’ in line, reducing their effective wait time from 30 minutes to 3.6 seconds. (3600 sec/hr / 1000 guests/hr = 3.6 sec/guest)
The remaining 29 minutes and 56.4 seconds of wait time did not vanish. It had to go somewhere.
It did. It was distributed evenly among the remaining 499 guests in the Standby line. As a result of that one person ‘cutting’, everyone else in the Standby line waited an extra 3.6 seconds.
Now continue that pattern across the entire hour.
What you’ll find is that the person who was ‘supposed’ to wait only 30 minutes because they were the 500th person to enter the Standby line ended up waiting 60 minutes.
The cumulative effect was that the total wait time did not change.
However, what FastPass+ did was change how that wait time was distributed.
That 500th person who stayed in the Standby line should have waited only 30 minutes but ended up waiting 60 minutes.
To that person, FastPass+ made the Standby line longer.
That person lost 30 minutes because of FastPass+.
FP+ does not increase ride capacity. FP+ is a zero-sum game. For every gain, there has to be an offsetting loss.
If I waited only 10 minutes for Peter Pan because of FP+, then I might have had to wait 50 minutes for Splash Mountain because of FP+.
Without FP+, I might have ended up waiting 30 minutes for both. The net effect is that FP+ has gained me nothing but it has made the Standby lines longer at both Peter Pan and Splash Mountain.
The only ways to shorten wait times are to either reduce demand (e.g. raise ticket prices) or increase capacity (e.g. build attractions).
In recent years, WDW has done the former much more than the latter.
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I think the people who decided to wait a few days to a week are the smart ones. If the numbers are correct 720 people an hour means that in 18 hours a total of 12,960 people can ride. If the attendance numbers are more than that there are people in the park who will not be able to ride it. And if there are only 12,960 people that would mean they are only on pace to draw 4,730,400 people a year. That is something everyone agrees is impossible. I know when I visit it will be midweek because on the weekend there will be people who are unable to ride it.
bhg469
Well-Known Member
If a mine train closes and no one is around to see it... Did it actually go down?
jakeman
Well-Known Member
In full disclosure it should be mentioned that JK Rowling did release a very short story regarding the characters attending the Quidditch World Cup in the style of a Rita Skeeter news article on Pottermore today.DiagonAlley was trending until about 9 am and now #HarryPotterIsBack is trending Worldwide on twitter today! What an amazing day for Potter fans!
LithiumBill
Well-Known Member
Brilliant, but my head hurts now...Please let me try one more time.
Continuing with the example, let’s recall that 1000 people showed up at the exact same instant for Peter Pan, which has a capacity of 1000 guests/hour. In this case, the first person in line waited 0 while the last person waited 60 minutes. The average wait time was 30 minutes.
Now let’s say that Disney gave the last 500 a return time. Those people still waited 31 to 60 minutes; they simply didn't wait in the physical line.
Now, taking this to the next step to simulate the effects of FastPass+, let’s say Disney evenly distributed the return times across the entire hour.
The first person in the Standby line still waited 0.
However, the second person in the Standby line, instead of immediately boarding after the first person, now had to wait for someone with a return time. They had to wait longer than if there was no FastPass+.
Remember, that person with the FP+ return time represented the 501st person in line. They didn’t have to stand in line at all. If things were ‘fair’, then they should have waited 31 minutes.
Instead, they were allowed to ‘cut’ in line, reducing their effective wait time from 31 minutes to 3.6 seconds. (3600 sec/hr / 1000 guests/hr = 3.6 sec/guest)
That 30 minutes and 56.4 seconds of wait time did not vanish. It had to go somewhere.
It was distributed evenly among the remaining 499 guests in the Standby line. As a result of that one person ‘cutting’, everyone else in the Standby line waited an extra 3.6 seconds.
Now continue that pattern across the entire hour.
What you’ll find is that the person who was ‘supposed’ to wait only 30 minutes because they were the 500th person to enter the Standby line ended up waiting 60 minutes.
The cumulative effect was that the total wait time did not change.
However, what FastPass+ did was change how that wait time was distributed.
That person who stayed in the Standby line should have waited only 30 minutes but ended up waiting 60 minutes.
To that person, FastPass+ made the Standby line longer.
That person lost 30 minutes because of FastPass+.
FP+ does not increase ride capacity. FP+ is a zero-sum game. For every gain, there has to be an offsetting loss.
If I waited only 10 minutes for Peter Pan because of FP+, then I might have had to wait 50 minutes for Splash Mountain because of FP+.
Without FP+, I might have ended up waiting 30 minutes for both. The net effect is that FP+ has gained me nothing but it has made the Standby lines longer at both Peter Pan and Splash Mountain.
The only way to shorten wait times is to reduce demand (i.e. raise ticket prices) or increase capacity (i.e. build attractions).
In recent years, WDW has done the former much more than the later.
Soarin' Over Pgh
Well-Known Member
Here let me trim all the excess out for yall (Hi, Disney. Please pay attention) who need to understand this a bit better:
I don't understand why it has to be *so* difficult.
I don't understand why it has to be *so* difficult.