The Spirited Seventh Heaven ...

Cesar R M

Well-Known Member
Why would you walk out of a movie halfway through? I never understood that. You already paid for two hours, why not view the complete package and then make an assessment on its quality. It would be like going to MK, walking down main street and then leaving because there are no rides.
Well, some people can have a very fixated point of view and prejudge the entire movie based on the first moments.
Just like many people just outright hate one person by just watching them and not knowing them.


Love your analysis of DVC, I totally agree.

But I think there is even an additional component in this which is so dangerous: They have become addicted to that short-term money they get. They need to keep generating these profits, otherwise their revenues are down. If they stopped selling DVC suddenly a large revenue stream that does not cost a lot to generate will be missing from their annual report. Won't look good and I am sure Mr Iger has no interest in having to explain that.
Pretty sure that it will be Stagg's or Rasulo's problem?, as Iger will be building a mansion in the Bahamas?
 

Pumbas Nakasak

Heading for the great escape.
It is a joke what the uk government charges for APD,but i live in Scotland,and from what i have been told,APD will be halved in scotland by the end of next year. Northern Ireland already has complete control over there APD as they are competing with Dublin and Shannon airports,whereas in Scotland,Manchester is our biggest rivals,for us to fly to Florida next spetember from Glasgow was going to be £450 more expensive than if i was to fly from Manchester! P.S. We booked from Glasgow,wife couldn't hack a three hour drive each way on top of the flight :( ,me personally,would have loved the extra moolah in my empty pockets :)
APD will only be cut if the Fuhrer is elected, so start saving. ;-)
 

ParentsOf4

Well-Known Member
I wonder, do you happen to know the numbers on what percentage of income DVC dues makes up vs non DVC hotel bookings?
It is possible to make a stab at this using publically available information.

Disney reported 10.558M Available Room Nights domestically in 2013. About 89% of Disney’s domestic rooms are at WDW. Domestic Per Room Guest Spending (PRGS) was $267, with that number a bit lower at WDW. Let’s use $255.

Crunching the numbers, this comes out to about $2.4 billion annually from WDW’s hotels, including DVC.

PRGS includes an indeterminate (from public sources) amount of hotel food, beverage, and merchandise sales. Let’s lop off a random $400M for this, leaving us with a nice even $2 billion in annual sales from WDW's hotel rooms.

From public sources, it’s possible to estimate how many points are at each DVC resort, and then multiple those by their Maintenance Fees.

Disney is required to maintain 2% ownership and then there always are some points in transition. (For example, DVC foreclosures, which happen more frequently than Disney cares to admit.) Let’s assume that Disney collects fees on about 96% of DVC points. (Excluding VGF, which is still being sold and which opened after the end of the 2013 fiscal year.)

Number crunching that leads to annual revenue of $230M directly from DVC Maintenance Fees.

Putting it all together, roughly 12% of WDW’s $2 billion in annual room revenue comes from DVC fees.
 
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mgpan

Well-Known Member
@ParentsOf4 nails it in the previous post. Almost everyone I know who discovers the point rental market--which is still not many so far--uses that as their first option, booking a room through the Mouse only if they can't rent points first. Because they get rooms like Kidani for the price of Pop. As knowledge of that spreads, it will eat into the bottom line more and more.

The per night prices can be really attractive, especially at Saratoga or OKW. I really want to stay at BLT for a song. And, I'm a room only reservation kind of guy, who prefers the savings by purchasing vacation components individually verses a package. But, what stops me from pulling the trigger is the non-refundable nature of DVC points rental from wholesalers, or distrust of individuals posting availability. I understand why this is so, if the renter doesn't know me, why should they trust me to follow through and pay, and if i cancel close to travel dates, can they rent to someone else for that use year. It does make it difficult though when due to long term work commitments, I have to schedule vacations months in advance and schedules can change.
 

Gomer

Well-Known Member
Gives me the right? I have all the right in the world to say a movie is good or bad. Since you like analogies, I don't have to drink an entire diet coke to tell you how bad it is. I know there are many people who love it but one sip and no thanks.

My wife would probably say she didn't like it. You can't interpret that a movie is bad by one person, you have to understand that they thought it was bad. They can say it was bad as that's their experience. I won't deny them their opinion or say they don't have the right. I may not agree with them but I respect their ability to have an opinion no matter how wrong it is.

By the way, Random Hearts has a 15 on Rotten Tomatoes. I can safely say its a bad movie.
A diet coke is consistent throughout. You can assess quality with a single sip. The flavor doesn’t change if you finish the bottle to that of Sprite.

You have the right to say anything you want. That is true. But to express that opinion as if it is an opinion of a movie you saw, when in fact you only saw a portion of if it misrepresenting your capability for a review of its quality. By saying you think it is bad, you are in reality saying that you didn’t like a portion of it, but representing the entire movie as bad which you cannot do as you have not seen it.

We’re just going in circles here, so we’ll have to agree to disagree. Obviously no one will stop you if you tell people movies are bad without watching them to completion. But if you respect art criticism and the film review process, I think you should see an entire work before expressing your thoughts on its quality to others. Otherwise the existing system of referral for quality doesn’t work as the reviews are uninformed.
 

Gomer

Well-Known Member
It is possible to make a stab at this using publically available information.

Disney reported 10.558M Available Room Nights domestically in 2013. About 89% of Disney’s domestic rooms are at WDW. Domestic Per Room Guest Spending (PRGS) was $267, with that number a bit lower at WDW. Let’s use $255.

Crunching the numbers, this comes out to about $2.4 billion annually from WDW’s hotels, including DVC.
PRGS includes an indeterminate (from public sources) amount of hotel food, beverage, and merchandise sales. Let’s lop off a random $400M for this, leaving us with a nice even $2 billion in annual sales from Disney’s hotel rooms.

From public sources, it’s possible to estimate how many points are at each DVC, and then multiple those by their Maintenance Fees.

Disney is required to maintain 2% ownership and then there always are some points in transition. (For example, DVC foreclosures, which happen more frequently than Disney cares to admit.) Let’s assume that Disney collects fees on about 96% of DVC points. (Excluding VGF, which is still being sold and opened after the end of the 2013 fiscal year.)

Number crunching that leads to annual revenue of $230M directly from DVC Maintenance Fees.

Putting it all together, roughly 12% of WDW’s $2 billion in annual room revenue comes from DVC fees.
ParentsOf4, I really hope you have found some way out in the real world to exploit these skills of yours to some professional or monetary gain. Your ability to come up with these facts and numbers as quickly as you do never ceases to amaze me.

Thanks for that!
 

homerdance

Well-Known Member
Almost 100% on target. Dues money cannot be directed to pay for upkeep on revenue generating areas of the resort like shops or restaurants. Unless the members saw that revenue as a reduction of their dues.

Those dues are paid into a 3rd party homeowners association that is responsible for maintaining the villa portion of the resort and do not show up anywhere on TWDC books
Yes. Don't know why I included shops and restaurants, AS money makers (in theory) that aren't subsidized by DVC dues
 

ParentsOf4

Well-Known Member
DVC does not pay the hotel tax. Because its deeded as a timeshare the hotel tax is not applicable and Disney does make money on the annual fees. Disney transportation makes a profit on what they charge the DVC for their services. Disney laundry also makes a profit as does house keeping and check in/out. Everything Disney or any other Timeshare company does is at a profit. Then to top it off after paying for the initial construction, upkeep and everything else after 50 years we give our timeshare back to to Disney for free. What a deal. Short term huge profit, 50 years of annual profits and then get to sell it all over again with a second time costs basis of 0. What a wonderful deal for Disney. Now, I have to admit I own 350 points and even though I know It is as great a deal as some other timeshares, I wanted what it offers my wife and I. It is not a good financial deal in anyway. It is a great deal for Disney in both the long medium and short terms but I wanted it and bought it on the resale market. Finally in another 28 years they can and will start selling the same resorts over and over again. So all they need is about 6 more resorts and they will be done building timeshares.
Sorry but I think you misinterpreted what I wrote. Sorry, I should have been clearer.

Out-of-pocket, DVC members do not pay anything above the actual Maintenance Fee annually. (DVC members do pay real estate taxes, which are included in the fee and are tax deductible, depending on the individual's financial circumstances.)

Therefore, in order for consumers to properly compare the cost of DVC's annual fees with cash room stays, it's necessary to include the 11.5% (for most WDW hotels) tax in the price of the hotel stay. If WDW's hotel rate is X then consumers pay X plus 11.5%. DVC members don't pay this. They pay just the annual Maintenance Fee.

To be even clearer, I did not claim Disney does not make a profit from DVC's annual fees. Disney's service charges to DVC members for management, Mousekeeping, maintenance, etc. are steep. However, I am stating without question that over the long-term, DVC is significantly less profitable for Disney than renting those same rooms for cash.

Stating the obvious, paying $131/night for a Standard View Studio at VGF this summer is significantly less profitable than paying $612/night (Disney's rack rate with tax) at the Grand Floridian, even after factoring the purchase price, inflation, and opportunity cost.

Depending on how you want to spin the numbers, VGF's current direct purchase price adds roughly $80/night to the stay over the entire life of the membership. That still means Disney collects roughly $211/night for a VGF Standard View Studio over the long haul for a summer stay.

Even with a 30% discount, the Grand Floridian is $428/night with tax for a summer stay. That's roughly a two-to-one difference.

The Grand Floridian’s cash rooms are significantly more profitable over the long haul than equivalent DVC rooms.

What's particularly interesting is that, having crunched the numbers for all DVC resorts, VGF is WDW's best case DVC for Disney. Disney is losing an even greater percentage of long-term profits at their other resorts.

Unfortunately, most senior executives don't give a hoot about profits 5 years from now, never mind 20 or 30 years from now. They want the money now and will kick the can down the road, making it someone else's financial problem later.

Sounds rather like the U.S. government. :rolleyes:
 
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fbb

Active Member
ParentsOf4, I really hope you have found some way out in the real world to exploit these skills of yours to some professional or monetary gain. Your ability to come up with these facts and numbers as quickly as you do never ceases to amaze me.

Thanks for that!

If he's like the rest of us, his current employer already pays him to surf Disney websites for half of every workday.
 

seascape

Well-Known Member
Sorry but I think you misinterpreted what I wrote. Sorry, I should have been clearer.

Out-of-pocket, DVC members do not pay anything above the actual Maintenance Fee annually. (DVC members do pay real estate taxes, which are included in the fee and are tax deductible, depending on the individual's financial circumstances.)

Therefore, in order for consumers to properly compare the cost of DVC's annual fees with cash room stays, it's necessary to include the 11.5% (for most WDW hotels) tax in the price of the hotel stay. If WDW's hotel rate is X then consumers pay X plus 11.5%. DVC members don't pay this. They pay just the annual Maintenance Fee.

To be even clearer, I did not claim Disney does not make a profit from DVC's annual fee. Disney's service charges to DVC members for management, Mousekeeping, maintenance, etc. are steep. However, I am stating without question that over the long-term, DVC is significantly less profitable for Disney than renting those same rooms for cash.

Stating the obvious, paying $131/night for a Standard View Studio at VGF this summer is significantly less profitable than paying $612/night (Disney's rack rate with tax) at the Grand Floridian, even after factoring the purchase price, inflation, and opportunity cost.

Depending on how you want to spin the numbers, VGF's current direct purchase price adds roughly $80/night to the stay over the entire life of the membership. That still means Disney collects roughly $211/night for a VGF Studio over the long haul for a summer stay.

Even with a 30% off discount, the Grand Floridian is $428/night with tax for a summer stay. That's roughly a two-to-one difference.

The Grand Floridian’s cash rooms are significantly more profitable over the long haul than equivalent DVC rooms.

What's particularly interesting is that, having crunched the numbers for all DVC resorts, VGF is WDW's best case DVC for Disney. Disney is losing an even greater percentage of long-term profits at their other resorts.

Unfortunately, most senior executives don't give a hoot about profits 5 years from now, never mind 20 or 30 years from now. They want the money now and will kick the can down the road, making it someone else's financial problem later.

Sounds rather like the U.S. government. :rolleyes:
I believe we agree on most of this. I still think Disney gets a great deal on the DVC in both the long and short run because its a Right to Use Timeshare and will revert to Disney ownership. Beginning in 2042 Disney will no longer build times shares but will resell the existing ones for their long run profit.
 

bhg469

Well-Known Member
Sorry but I think you misinterpreted what I wrote. Sorry, I should have been clearer.

Out-of-pocket, DVC members do not pay anything above the actual Maintenance Fee annually. (DVC members do pay real estate taxes, which are included in the fee and are tax deductible, depending on the individual's financial circumstances.)

Therefore, in order for consumers to properly compare the cost of DVC's annual fees with cash room stays, it's necessary to include the 11.5% (for most WDW hotels) tax in the price of the hotel stay. If WDW's hotel rate is X then consumers pay X plus 11.5%. DVC members don't pay this. They pay just the annual Maintenance Fee.

To be even clearer, I did not claim Disney does not make a profit from DVC's annual fees. Disney's service charges to DVC members for management, Mousekeeping, maintenance, etc. are steep. However, I am stating without question that over the long-term, DVC is significantly less profitable for Disney than renting those same rooms for cash.

Stating the obvious, paying $131/night for a Standard View Studio at VGF this summer is significantly less profitable than paying $612/night (Disney's rack rate with tax) at the Grand Floridian, even after factoring the purchase price, inflation, and opportunity cost.

Depending on how you want to spin the numbers, VGF's current direct purchase price adds roughly $80/night to the stay over the entire life of the membership. That still means Disney collects roughly $211/night for a VGF Standard View Studio over the long haul for a summer stay.

Even with a 30% discount, the Grand Floridian is $428/night with tax for a summer stay. That's roughly a two-to-one difference.

The Grand Floridian’s cash rooms are significantly more profitable over the long haul than equivalent DVC rooms.

What's particularly interesting is that, having crunched the numbers for all DVC resorts, VGF is WDW's best case DVC for Disney. Disney is losing an even greater percentage of long-term profits at their other resorts.

Unfortunately, most senior executives don't give a hoot about profits 5 years from now, never mind 20 or 30 years from now. They want the money now and will kick the can down the road, making it someone else's financial problem later.

Sounds rather like the U.S. government. :rolleyes:
$428 a night after a 30% discount... Honestly, who can justify this for a hotel room that offers no more than a higher level mariott..

Even if i had the money to spare, I couled never force myself to do that. Disney world has some amazing power over people...
 

asianway

Well-Known Member
I believe we agree on most of this. I still think Disney gets a great deal on the DVC in both the long and short run because its a Right to Use Timeshare and will revert to Disney ownership. Beginning in 2042 Disney will no longer build times shares but will resell the existing ones for their long run profit.
No one knows what Disney will do in 2042. They could convert to hotel, resell as DVC or redevelop.
 

PrincessNelly_NJ

Well-Known Member
According to Twitter, Diagon Alley has soft opened. Have fun anyone who gets to go!
ahh you beat me to it! I just seen that too as of 3:20!
BrpM3RoCMAAHol5.jpg
 
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