Ranch Dressing
Well-Known Member
If someone breaks the news I was privy to, I'll back it and expand what I know. I don't want to spill something and get people in trouble. The campground stuff really wasn't top secret.
But yes, people will be happy.
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The Spirited Seventh Heaven ...
- Thread starter WDW1974
- Start date
If someone breaks the news I was privy to, I'll back it and expand what I know. I don't want to spill something and get people in trouble. The campground stuff really wasn't top secret.
But yes, people will be happy.
PhotoDave219
Well-Known Member
SJN1279
Well-Known Member
Agreed. My wife and I actually walked out of The Lego Movie after 45 minutes. I loved Frozen, and the first Dragon movie. I'm excited to check out the sequel.
truecoat
Well-Known Member
My son's marching band did Frozen this year. I'll upload the warm up it to see how good or bad you think it is.
LithiumBill
Well-Known Member
You do not have to pay for the upcharges if you don't want to...So the Frozen summer event (stage show) is $59 for adults and $34 for kids AFTER paying to get into the already overpriced Hollywood Studios?
Potter swatter right there
ParentsOf4
Well-Known Member
DVC sacrifices long-term profits for short-term profits. Since executives making these decisions tend to focus on their current year's bonuses (which are tied to short-term profits), building more DVC is an easy decision.
DVC works on a points system. It takes a certain number of points to book a room. There are 2 costs associated with DVC: purchase price and annual Maintenance Fee (MF). Both are best thought of in terms of price-per-point.
I'll use the Boardwalk Villas (BWV) as an example.
BWV opened in 1996 at a purchase price of $65/point. It currently takes 108 points to book a Standard View Studio for a week at BWV during the summer or spring break, which means someone would have had to spend $7020 back in 1996 (ignoring small ancillary costs) in order to purchase enough points to book that room today.
That $7020 looked great to the bottom line in 1996. Disney executives would have received nice bonuses back then.
However, there are long-term consequences.
With the current BWV MF at $6.01/point, a BWV Standard View Studio costs a DVC member $649/week or less than $93/night including tax!
At today’s WDW prices, you can’t find a Value Resort room for $93/night with tax in the summer.
What corporate Disney did with BWV was sacrifice profits for decades in order to realize substantial profits back in 1996.
Even though current DVC purchase prices are much higher than they were in 1996, DVC continues to sacrifice long-term profits for short-term profits.
The Villas at the Grand Floridian (VGF) opened in 2013. Its current buy-in is $165/point. Crunching the numbers, a purchase today requires $27,885 for enough points to stay a week in a Standard View Studio during the summer. Annual dues for that room work out to $914/week or less than $131/night.
That $27,885 makes the 2014 numbers look great but that $131/night in 2015 (and 2016 and 2017 and ...) for a Grand Floridian room, well, that doesn’t look so great.
When there were a limited number of DVC rooms, DVC filled a niche market. Some consumers were interested in an Orlando timeshare and Disney was wise to cash-in on that.
The problem at WDW today is that the number of DVC rooms has proliferated tremendously. DVC now has 4300 separately bookable rooms. These compete directly with Disney’s 5600 Deluxe Resort rooms.
Disney hasn’t built a single Deluxe or Moderate Resort since the Animal Kingdom Lodge opened in 2001. Meanwhile, they’ve added another 2600 separately bookable DVC rooms!
In recent years, the DVC resale and point rental market has boomed even as Disney’s hotel occupancy rates have declined. DVC is cannibalizing Disney’s highly profitable hotel stays.
Signs point to an improving Orlando tourist economy, which will hide DVC’s sins for a few more years. As a result, expect more DVC to be built.
Pandora might take 6 years from announcement to opening, but new DVC resorts will take considerably less time.
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PrincessNelly_NJ
Well-Known Member
I wish they would at least build one more moderate.DVC sacrifices long-term profits for short-term profits. Since executives making these decisions tend to focus on their current year's bonuses (which are tied to short-term profits), building more DVC is an easy decision.
DVC works on a points system. It takes a certain number of points to book a room. There are 2 costs associated with DVC: purchase price and annual Maintenance Fee (MF). Both are best thought of in terms of price-per-point.
I'll use the Boardwalk Villas (BWV) as an example.
BWV opened in 1996 at a purchase price of $65/point. It currently takes 108 points to book a Standard View Studio for a week at BWV during the summer or spring break, which means someone would have had to spend $7020 back in 1996 (ignoring small ancillary costs) in order to purchase enough points to book that room today.
That $7020 looked great to the bottom line in 1996. Disney executives would have received nice bonuses back then.
However, there are long-term consequences.
With the current BWV MF at $6.01/point, a BWV Standard View Studio costs a DVC member $649/week or less than $93/night including tax!
At today’s WDW, you can’t find a Value Resort room for $93/night with tax in the summer.
What corporate Disney did with BWV was sacrifice profits for decades in order to realize substantial profits back in 1996.
Even though current DVC purchase prices are much higher than they were in 1996, DVC continues to sacrifice long-term profits for short-term profits.
The Villas at the Grand Floridian (VGF) opened in 2013. Its current buy-in is $165/point. Crunching the numbers, a purchase today requires $27,885 for enough points to stay a week in a Standard View Studio during the summer. Annual dues for that room work out to $914/week or less than $131/night.
That $27,885 makes the 2014 numbers look great but that $131/night in 2015 (and 2016 and 2017 and ...) for a Grand Floridian room, well, that doesn’t look so great.
When there were a limited number of DVC rooms, DVC fit a niche market. Some consumers were interested in an Orlando timeshare and Disney was wise to cash-in on that.
The problem at WDW today is that the number of DVC rooms has proliferated tremendously. DVC now has 4300 separately bookable rooms. These compete directly with Disney’s 5600 Deluxe Resort rooms.
Disney hasn’t built a single Deluxe or Moderate Resort since the Animal Kingdom Lodge opened in 2001. Meanwhile, they’ve added another 2600 separately bookable DVC rooms!
In recent years, the DVC resale and point rental market has boomed even as Disney’s hotel occupancy rates have declined. DVC is cannibalizing Disney’s highly profitable hotel stays.
Signs point to an improving Orlando tourist economy, which will hide DVC’s sins for a few more years. As a result, expect more DVC to be built.
Pandora might take 6 years from announcement to opening, but new DVC resorts will take considerably less time.
I'm sure the values have the highest occupancy year round, but show the moderates some love too!
Seesh, the least they could do is update CBR to queen beds!
dupac
Well-Known Member
I was looking at moderates the other day and CBR just looks sad... that's a moderate? (Rhetorical question) If it was my only moderate choice, I'd probably just the save money.
DisneyGentleman
Well-Known Member
Excellent comments and very well thought-out. The near term is cannabilizing the long term, mainly because there is no long term vision for WDW. In 50 years, it will be gone. So the position of the media conglomerate is to take the money now, and move on.DVC sacrifices long-term profits for short-term profits. Since executives making these decisions tend to focus on their current year's bonuses (which are tied to short-term profits), building more DVC is an easy decision.
DVC works on a points system. It takes a certain number of points to book a room. There are 2 costs associated with DVC: purchase price and annual Maintenance Fee (MF). Both are best thought of in terms of price-per-point.
I'll use the Boardwalk Villas (BWV) as an example.
BWV opened in 1996 at a purchase price of $65/point. It currently takes 108 points to book a Standard View Studio for a week at BWV during the summer or spring break, which means someone would have had to spend $7020 back in 1996 (ignoring small ancillary costs) in order to purchase enough points to book that room today.
That $7020 looked great to the bottom line in 1996. Disney executives would have received nice bonuses back then.
However, there are long-term consequences.
With the current BWV MF at $6.01/point, a BWV Standard View Studio costs a DVC member $649/week or less than $93/night including tax!
At today’s WDW prices, you can’t find a Value Resort room for $93/night with tax in the summer.
What corporate Disney did with BWV was sacrifice profits for decades in order to realize substantial profits back in 1996.
Even though current DVC purchase prices are much higher than they were in 1996, DVC continues to sacrifice long-term profits for short-term profits.
The Villas at the Grand Floridian (VGF) opened in 2013. Its current buy-in is $165/point. Crunching the numbers, a purchase today requires $27,885 for enough points to stay a week in a Standard View Studio during the summer. Annual dues for that room work out to $914/week or less than $131/night.
That $27,885 makes the 2014 numbers look great but that $131/night in 2015 (and 2016 and 2017 and ...) for a Grand Floridian room, well, that doesn’t look so great.
When there were a limited number of DVC rooms, DVC filled a niche market. Some consumers were interested in an Orlando timeshare and Disney was wise to cash-in on that.
The problem at WDW today is that the number of DVC rooms has proliferated tremendously. DVC now has 4300 separately bookable rooms. These compete directly with Disney’s 5600 Deluxe Resort rooms.
Disney hasn’t built a single Deluxe or Moderate Resort since the Animal Kingdom Lodge opened in 2001. Meanwhile, they’ve added another 2600 separately bookable DVC rooms!
In recent years, the DVC resale and point rental market has boomed even as Disney’s hotel occupancy rates have declined. DVC is cannibalizing Disney’s highly profitable hotel stays.
Signs point to an improving Orlando tourist economy, which will hide DVC’s sins for a few more years. As a result, expect more DVC to be built.
Pandora might take 6 years from announcement to opening, but new DVC resorts will take considerably less time.
TeriofTerror
Well-Known Member
Out of curiosity, how well did the (for lack of a better term) lease extension work out at Old Key West, does anyone know? Did a lot of people choose to extend their "ownership"? Did Disney make a nice chunk of change there? Does this look like a model Disney will use at the other DVC resorts? That may be a way for them to keep filling the coffers. And if people are interested and want to keep paying, that seems like a win-win to me.
PrincessNelly_NJ
Well-Known Member
Agreed. It kinda seems like CBR would even benefit from being split like POR & POFQ were.
It is so large that it turns most people off just looking at it on a map.
I've seen quite a few people comment that they found mold in their room and were moved immediately to a room with tons of other issues.
Not to mention the bad transportation rep it has.
cw1982
Well-Known Member
*cringe* at least the rights to the script for the full-length show (probably) won't be available for a few years... maybe this will all die down by the time that happens?
Gomer
Well-Known Member
Isn’t it true though that what Disney sacrifices in future profitability they are exchanging for predictability. Those $93/night and $131/night stays you reference may be under market for what they could be getting from a comparable hotel room, but those stays are also guaranteed. With no effort, every DVC owner is paying those dues whether they stay there or not. Whether they go to the parks or not. And in a time where Disney doesn’t seem to making much effort to attract new visitors they can predict that revenue stream for 40 years out.DVC sacrifices long-term profits for short-term profits. Since executives making these decisions tend to focus on their current year's bonuses (which are tied to short-term profits), building more DVC is an easy decision.
DVC works on a points system. It takes a certain number of points to book a room. There are 2 costs associated with DVC: purchase price and annual Maintenance Fee (MF). Both are best thought of in terms of price-per-point.
I'll use the Boardwalk Villas (BWV) as an example.
BWV opened in 1996 at a purchase price of $65/point. It currently takes 108 points to book a Standard View Studio for a week at BWV during the summer or spring break, which means someone would have had to spend $7020 back in 1996 (ignoring small ancillary costs) in order to purchase enough points to book that room today.
That $7020 looked great to the bottom line in 1996. Disney executives would have received nice bonuses back then.
However, there are long-term consequences.
With the current BWV MF at $6.01/point, a BWV Standard View Studio costs a DVC member $649/week or less than $93/night including tax!
At today’s WDW prices, you can’t find a Value Resort room for $93/night with tax in the summer.
What corporate Disney did with BWV was sacrifice profits for decades in order to realize substantial profits back in 1996.
Even though current DVC purchase prices are much higher than they were in 1996, DVC continues to sacrifice long-term profits for short-term profits.
The Villas at the Grand Floridian (VGF) opened in 2013. Its current buy-in is $165/point. Crunching the numbers, a purchase today requires $27,885 for enough points to stay a week in a Standard View Studio during the summer. Annual dues for that room work out to $914/week or less than $131/night.
That $27,885 makes the 2014 numbers look great but that $131/night in 2015 (and 2016 and 2017 and ...) for a Grand Floridian room, well, that doesn’t look so great.
When there were a limited number of DVC rooms, DVC filled a niche market. Some consumers were interested in an Orlando timeshare and Disney was wise to cash-in on that.
The problem at WDW today is that the number of DVC rooms has proliferated tremendously. DVC now has 4300 separately bookable rooms. These compete directly with Disney’s 5600 Deluxe Resort rooms.
Disney hasn’t built a single Deluxe or Moderate Resort since the Animal Kingdom Lodge opened in 2001. Meanwhile, they’ve added another 2600 separately bookable DVC rooms!
In recent years, the DVC resale and point rental market has boomed even as Disney’s hotel occupancy rates have declined. DVC is cannibalizing Disney’s highly profitable hotel stays.
Signs point to an improving Orlando tourist economy, which will hide DVC’s sins for a few more years. As a result, expect more DVC to be built.
Pandora might take 6 years from announcement to opening, but new DVC resorts will take considerably less time.
How many times on this site do we see DVC owners saying they stay on their points and then go to Universal. Its backwards logic because Disney should be upset by people not going to their parks, but at the same time they are still securing the visit without any effort or marketing. And along with that visit likely comes food purchases, shopping, and in most cases at least some days in the Disney parks. Whereas many, had they not been locked into DVC, may now not even set foot in a Disney park. Being that close in proximity can lead to a “Why not” mentality for visiting the Disney owned parks. “Eh…we’re here at the Boardwalk…so we might as well go to Epcot”
I don’t claim to know a lot about the business world. And I don’t work in the theme park industry. But in my line of business (software) companies regularly and enthusiastically will give up short term business in exchange for locked in future revenue, even if it’s less revenue. Because that predictability gives them security.
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ParentsOf4
Well-Known Member
Disney's offer to extend Old Key West (OKW) DVC memberships from 2042 to 2055 sold poorly. (I think the price was around $13-15/point.)
It appears that DVC members weren't too worried about where they were going to vacation 30 or 40 years into the future.
My opinon it that extensions will sell much better as we approach 2042, but that's 28 years away.
Still, Disney's going to have a pretty big problem on its hands in 2042. The market will be flooded with OKW (7.6M points), Vero Beach (1.5M points), Hilton Head (1.3M points), Boardwalk Villas (4.8M points), Beach Club (2.9M points), and Wilderness Lodge (1.9M points).
Really though, I wish they'd focus on fixing WDW's theme parks now and spend less effort playing with DVC.
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FigmentJedi
Well-Known Member
Well you missed the sweet turn it took in the third act.
Gomer
Well-Known Member
Why would you walk out of a movie halfway through? I never understood that. You already paid for two hours, why not view the complete package and then make an assessment on its quality. It would be like going to MK, walking down main street and then leaving because there are no rides.
ParentsOf4
Well-Known Member
I'm a DVC member and visit Universal all the time, much more than I visit WDW's theme parks.
DVC members are no different than other consumers. They will use their cash to purchase products they think are worth it.
If they decide WDW is no longer worth it, then they will do what I do (spend their vacation dollars elsewhere while in Orlando), sell their memberships (which undercuts DVC direct sales), or rent their points (which undercuts Disney's hotel room sales).
This wasn't much of a problem when Old Key West (OKW) opened in 1991. It was just one resort with a limited number of rooms.
Now, the number of DVC rooms has exploded while the Internet has changed everything.
As we’ve seen with eBay, the Internet acts as a bridge between buyer and seller, making it much easier to find products from secondary sources.
What this means for DVC is that not only is it much easier to purchase DVC memberships through resale, it’s also much easier to rent DVC points from current members.
The Internet has had a profound effect on pricing, enabling the customer to readily find alternatives to WDW’s outrageous direct prices.
Where Disney still has a monopoly (e.g. theme park ticket & food prices), they can raise prices aggressively with little fear of how consumers might react.
However, where Disney has to compete (e.g. hotel stays), sales have been adversely affected.
A few years ago, WDW attendance started to decline. In response, Disney was able to open up a new market in South America, replacing declining North American and European sales. However, the South American market is reaching maturity. At WDW’s prices, only the top 2 or 3% of incomes from those countries can afford WDW. WDW is reaching saturation in those markets.
Corporate Disney needs to move away from short-term fixes such as DVC and alternative markets and start looking for a long-term growth strategy.
The strategy is no secret. As Hogsmeade, Cars Land, and Diagon Alley show, if theme parks build the right properties, consumers will spend.
However, such a strategy relies on long-term investment, something corporate Disney has been reluctant to do at WDW ever since Iger took charge in 2005.
Instead, they’d rather spend $12 billion over the last 3 years buying back company stock that’s trading at a PE ratio of 21.
It demonstrates that Disney’s corporate leadership does not believe in WDW.
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71jason
Well-Known Member
@ParentsOf4 nails it in the previous post. Almost everyone I know who discovers the point rental market--which is still not many so far--uses that as their first option, booking a room through the Mouse only if they can't rent points first. Because they get rooms like Kidani for the price of Pop. As knowledge of that spreads, it will eat into the bottom line more and more.
Gomer
Well-Known Member
First, let me say I agree with pretty much all that you said there. Not trying to be argumentative. Just love a good DVC discussion.I'm a DVC member and visit Universal all the time, much more than I visit WDW's theme parks.
DVC members are no different than other consumers. They will use their cash to purchase products they think are worth it.
If they decide WDW is no longer worth it, then they will do what I do (spend their vacation dollars elsewhere while in Orlando), sell their memberships (which undercut DVC direct sales), or rent their points (which undercut Disney's hotel room sales).
This wasn't much of a problem when Old Key West (OKW) opened in 1991. It was just one resort with a limited number of rooms.
Now, the number of DVC rooms has exploded while the Internet has changed everything.
As we’ve seen with eBay, the Internet acts as a bridge between buyer and seller, making it much easier to find products from secondary sources.
What this means for DVC is that not only is it much easier to purchase DVC memberships through resale, it’s also much easier to rent DVC points from current members.
The Internet has had a profound effect on pricing, enabling the customer to readily find alternatives to WDW’s outrageous direct prices.
Where Disney still has a monopoly (e.g. theme park ticket & food prices), they can raise prices aggressively with little fear of how consumers might react.
However, where Disney has to compete (e.g. hotel stays), sales have been adversely affected.
A few years ago, WDW attendance started to decline. In response, Disney was able to open up a new market in South America, replacing declining North American and European sales. However, the South American market is reaching maturity. At WDW’s prices, only the top 2 or 3% of incomes from those countries can afford WDW. WDW is reaching saturation in those markets.
Corporate Disney needs to move away from short-term fixes such as DVC and alternative markets and start looking for a long-term growth strategy.
The strategy is no secret. As Hogsmeade, Cars Land, and Diagon Alley show, if theme parks build the right properties, consumers will spend.
However, such a strategy relies on long-term investment, something corporate Disney has been reluctant to do at WDW ever since Iger took charge in 2005.
Instead, they’d rather spend $12 billion over the last 3 years buying back company stock that’s trading at a PE ratio of 21.
It demonstrates that Disney’s corporate leadership does not believe in WDW.
I especially agree about Disney not believing in their own parks. The only part I question is whether DVC is purely a cash grab with no thought for the future or is it an attempt to secure revenue in that volatile and unpredictable climate you are referring to.Everything you say is true about the internet allowing people to find alternatives. Renting points, staying off site, finding discounts all make the hotel stay market extremely unpredictable and under a traditional format Disney would have to fight tooth and nail to keep their share. But under their current model with DVC, they have a steady and predictable stream of dues coming in that gives them some security where they otherwise wouldn’t have any. No matter how many times people resell those contracts and no matter how many times people stay at their DVC hotel and go to Universal, someone is still paying those dues. And that will not change for another 30 years or so. If there is another recession, people will still pay their dues. If war breaks out and people don’t travel, people will still need to pay their dues. If there’s a zombie apocalypse and society crumbles….well maybe then there won’t be dues, but you get my point.
All that being said, I agree that this emphasis on DVC allows them to ignore the parks. I wish it didn’t. I’m a DVC owner and I love owning it. But I also recognize the harm its doing to other parts of the property.
Spirited Thursday Morning Musings:
FW is going nowhere. I've heard someone started that rumor here and it has no validity at all. None.
There is a VERY troubling (to me) piece of resort/DVC news that I am trying to vet now.
A very close friend was at EPCOT last night and reported very slow crowds saying Soarin only had a 40-minute standby wait in early evening.
Seems like the makeover to DD has quietly (why would you talk about it?) fallen behind schedule. I am sure the phones are ringing off the hook with people postponing vacations.
Very strange that EPCOT moves Living With the Land to a Tier 1 FP+ attraction and then shutters it nightly at 7 during summer.
Interesting Miceage column this week about DL's Diamond Anniversary that is really shaping up to be a very nice celeb. WDW would get a pin and a vinyl set. Notice they did say Monstropolis was a go again (as I said here). ... Only 'news' there to me was the Marvel mini area. I totally buy that wait would get Marvel out of DL, which they want for Star Wars. And it would keep open the idea of using Marvel IP in major attractions in a third gate down the road.
Maleficent has quietly outperformed studio expectations and has shown legs in a busy summer.
I know there has been loads of drama over the opening of Diagon Alley and the Hogwarts Express, but I think UNI has sorta dropped the ball. In this era of social media, people are going to expect soft openings and going to chat and post about them. Disney went through this with the kiddie coaster recently. It's part of life. You either don't have them at all and make it clear that nothing opens until a set date, or you have loads of security that tells folks they have to move it along, or you deal with crowds that look like Black Friday folks at the Wal-Mart.
FW is going nowhere. I've heard someone started that rumor here and it has no validity at all. None.
There is a VERY troubling (to me) piece of resort/DVC news that I am trying to vet now.
A very close friend was at EPCOT last night and reported very slow crowds saying Soarin only had a 40-minute standby wait in early evening.
Seems like the makeover to DD has quietly (why would you talk about it?) fallen behind schedule. I am sure the phones are ringing off the hook with people postponing vacations.
Very strange that EPCOT moves Living With the Land to a Tier 1 FP+ attraction and then shutters it nightly at 7 during summer.
Interesting Miceage column this week about DL's Diamond Anniversary that is really shaping up to be a very nice celeb. WDW would get a pin and a vinyl set. Notice they did say Monstropolis was a go again (as I said here). ... Only 'news' there to me was the Marvel mini area. I totally buy that wait would get Marvel out of DL, which they want for Star Wars. And it would keep open the idea of using Marvel IP in major attractions in a third gate down the road.
Maleficent has quietly outperformed studio expectations and has shown legs in a busy summer.
I know there has been loads of drama over the opening of Diagon Alley and the Hogwarts Express, but I think UNI has sorta dropped the ball. In this era of social media, people are going to expect soft openings and going to chat and post about them. Disney went through this with the kiddie coaster recently. It's part of life. You either don't have them at all and make it clear that nothing opens until a set date, or you have loads of security that tells folks they have to move it along, or you deal with crowds that look like Black Friday folks at the Wal-Mart.