The Spirited Seventh Heaven ...

[CDavid]

Apparently, most APers don't like MAGIC Bands and Disney is working on another place for them to carry their tracking device according to a friend. What a shock that folks don't want plastic crap on their wrists. Who could have seen that one coming?

Finally some good news for a change, because the dislike of wearing silly plastic bracelets isn't limited to annual pass holders.

 

[WDW1974]

The lack of reviews of the Potter 2.0 rides from people who have already been on them speaks to Universal's control.

Slightly off-topic, but I'd love to know what Universal's plan has been re: Potter 2.0 opening date. Has the plan all along been to put it off or what? I half-expect them to send out a Tweet one day that says, "Now open!"

I'm glad I'm relatively local so that I can drop everything and go visit when it opens, but I feel sorry for people who are going to miss the opening because Universal's been so coy about the date.

I don't think UNI has tried to hide anything. They are working with some amazing tech and issues have cropped up (some that shouldn't have, sorry Parkscope bois, they aren't perfect!) The original 'hoped for' plan was to have it in soft openings by late May. But nothing was ever etched in stone.

I wouldn't be surprised at all if this takes a bit to fully get open and up to capacity. Also, just because parts of the land open, doesn't mean the entire thing will be ready on any day. What I am saying is that it is possible to open Diagon and not open Gringotts etc.

 

[Soarin' Over Pgh]

Apparently, most APers don't like MAGIC Bands and Disney is working on another place for them to carry their tracking device according to a friend. What a shock that folks don't want plastic crap on their wrists. Who could have seen that one coming?

I believe that was discussed two spirited threads in the past and roughly 1200 pages or so ago if not plenty more and seen by more than 600,000 "visits" whether our eyes repeatedly checking thread or others. Hey, maybe the others do actually read your threads!

 

[Bolna]

I don't understand. Why in the world would anyone be envious. All anyone needs to do is go to Uni and see it. It's just up the road a few miles. Uni is a very good park (2), there is no reason why both cannot be enjoyed. The more Uni puts in there the more things I can go see when I'm in the area. There really is nothing to lose. The Disney police will not lock you up if you spend a day or so in the "other" place.

I love that there are great attractions added at Universal. I am envious of the excitement of new things, I want lots of new stuff for WDW. As well as for Universal. That was what I was saying.

 

[tirian]

Word has it they had trouble filling the audience yesterday for Fallon. All the usual lifestylers had tickets but after 2- 3pm they were tossing tickets at anyone who would stop.

I doubt they ever planned to fill Fallon's audience with theme park lifestylers.

 

[WDW1974]

I think you missed a very important thing. If wall street loves comcast so much more than Disney, why is comcast market cap 136.1 billion while Disney is 144.26 billion? I guess wall street does love Disney. Wall Street gives Disney a higher PE because they believe Disney profits will grow faster. Why? I thought everyone knew Universal was blowing everyone away in theme parks and profits and that next gen was a financial sink hole. Maybe they know next gen is working and will make huge profits freeing capital for more expansion? No one can deny high PE shows investors are betting their money that Disney is Growing faster than Universal.

What is your point? Wall Street is quite happy with BOTH companies right now. Do you need a lesson on how different the theme park business is for both media corps? And NGE has been a financial sink hole as you put it. I guess Disney's lack of spending on anything else, raising ticket prices and food and everything else and the never-ending stream of new upcharge events are just a coincidence?

Oh, and that pesky little fact that Iger, Rasulo and Staggs have been unable to point to how much or when NGE will add to the bottom line and analysts have been asking for years now.

 

[WDW1974]

Second, MyMagic+ is expensive to develop. Disney has spent far more on MyMagic+ than Universal will have spent on WWOHP, Transformers, the Simpson's Land redo, and Diagon Alley combined. Disney made one big-budget movie. Universal made several small films, one of which already has turned into a blockbuster. MyMagic+ is going to have to produce a lot more increased revenue just to cover costs.

People really need to digest that. Even if you are a Disney apologist, how can one argue that NGE was a smarter allocation of a few billion dollars?

Third, MyMagic+ is coming after 3 years of combined price increases of about 25%. It's difficult for paying customers to absorb that kind of increase and then be expected to spend even more as a result of MyMagic+. If MyMagic+ had rolled out 3 years ago and then Disney began these price increases, then it might have been possible to claim success. However, coming after 3 years of significant price hikes, MyMagic+ will face an uphill battle to add additional revenue. The timing of the rollout of MyMagic+ is pretty bad.

Yes. My AP has gone from $299 to $425 in five years (less, I think). I'd love to know what I am paying for beyond NGE.

We need to give MyMagic+ a few more quarters to see what result it ultimately has on earnings. However, if by this time next year there's no appreciable change in P&R's numbers, then MyMagic+ will have turned into another John Carter or Lone Ranger.

Nah, The Lone Ranger was actually entertaining. MAGIC Bands don't get me hot and bothered.

 

[WDW1974]

It's still very common in eastern europe, russia, and much of the far east. It's part of doing business and while most companies claim to take the high road, the dirty work is just done at different levels to try to keep their hands clean. It's reality - its just not talked about here in the West because people still believe we can project our ideals and way of thinking on everyone.

Our ideals haven't been more than empty words for many moons anyway. ...

 

[WDW1974]

So are people still going to call this "a win"?

Well, if you like Disney, then you should be glad they rid themselves of an unbalanced individual.

Have no idea whether the UNI news is accurate, although I suspect Surrell went right to Ricky since Disney made him delete his Twitter. He won't last the summer with them if he hands Mrs. Ricky's mealticket anything, though. UNI isn't Disney. They take that stuff seriously. Right @whylightbulb ?

 

[Goofyernmost]

I love that there are great attractions added at Universal. I am envious of the excitement of new things, I want lots of new stuff for WDW. As well as for Universal. That was what I was saying.

On that point I totally agree. When I was there last January the excitement that I used to feel at WDW had moved up the road. It did sadden me a little, but, like I said, all I had to do was just go there for a couple of days and got my fix. We are kidding ourselves if we think that Disney will continuously rise to every occasion. The reason is because they already set the bar very high when considering the magnitude of things to do at the resort. Uni is still playing a catchup game, but they sure have been doing a good job lately of making the gap considerably smaller. In my mind both are must do destinations. Both offer things that the other doesn't. I see absolutely no reason to be just a Disney Fan or just a Universal Fan. There are great things to do and see in both places.

EDIT: I have always looked at Uni as similar to Park Hopping. I never considered that it wasn't part of Disney, because it didn't matter to me. It offered things that I enjoyed and wanted to see. That is ever since it opened. I don't feel like I'm a traitor to Disney.

 

[ParentsOf4]

But isn't facility maintenance usually found as a line item in the operating income section? While physical improvement falls as a line item within the investment income?

Right. I tend to use the term "maintenance" as shorthand on this forum, although strictly speaking, I am wrong to do so. True maintenance should be captured in opex, not capex.

Perhaps it's best to quote from Disney's 10K:

Investing Activities
Investing activities consist principally of investments in parks, resorts and other property and acquisition and divestiture activity.

...

Capital expenditures for the Parks and Resorts segment are principally for theme park and resort expansion, new rides and attractions, cruise ships, recurring capital and capital improvements and systems infrastructure.​

The parks in general and WDW in particular are huge physical assets requiring 24-hour support for tens-of-millions of customers annually. Not surprisingly, they require tremendous amounts of "recurring capital and capital improvements and systems infrastructure" to maintain.

Then perhaps it's best to finish with what Rasulo said about capex in 2011:

Let me start with your CapEx question, and this is one that I get asked often and I will try to give you some perspective on it. Five years ago or so we used to be pretty demonstrative about $1 billion number being an ongoing level without special projects added to it.

You have to remember though that in those five years in the capital projects that we have put in the ground, which each have their own growth strategy, each is filling in different parts of the portfolio, when they are back on board they all need ongoing FF&E and maintenance capital to keep them going.

So I would say that that $1 billion number is low. But certainly we have been pretty clear about the levels we are spending in fiscal 2011 and 2012 being at the other end of the spectrum, being very high because of the addition of the two cruise ships, the Aulani hotel, the work we're doing at DCA, all the work we're doing at Walt Disney World has really created a bubble for us that is not our long-term plan.

I think that you will hear about longer-term projects. Shanghai, we talked a little bit about as a contributor to 2012 capital expenditures, and that will ramp up over time.

Remember that only 43% of that capital is ours. So even though it is a big contributor, the Chinese government contributes 57% of that and we back that cash out of a financing -- lower financing line in our P&L.

So I can't give you exact specificity on our ongoing capital level, but let's say it will be higher than $1 billion, but much lower than the 2.5 to 3 we have been at.
​

In 2011, P&R capex was $2.7B. In 2012, it was $2.9B. In 2013, it was $2.1B.

 

[Captain Chaos]

People like him makes me wonder.. what the hell is going on their brains? what is their problem to cause such behaviour?

Makes me wonder too, but the problem is, we all feed them... We give them what they want. We fall for their nonsense over and over, despite the pleads to not feed the trolls. So, who's really to blame? Them or the ones who give them what they seek?

Well, enough about him, too much time spent on what appears to be a banned member from here... Back to what ever the topic is...

 

[ParentsOf4]

Nah, The Lone Ranger was actually entertaining. MAGIC Bands don't get me hot and bothered.

Hey, you liked The Lone Ranger. (My DW thought it was entertaining too.)

Many enjoy MyMagic+ just as much.

It doesn't mean either will be profitable.

 

[Darth Sidious]

I am flat out saying that you don't create something like SDL in today's China and not have to grease some wheels. That is just how things are done and it is beyond naive to think otherwise.

I do miss China ... a good friend was at HKDL today and sent me some pics. I miss my 'little' park on Lantau.

I didn't want to say something without having knowledge but I did believe something was likely done. There are a few companies under fire right now for it and I guarantee nothing comes of it.

 

[raymusiccity]

People really need to digest that. Even if you are a Disney apologist, how can one argue that NGE was a smarter allocation of a few billion dollars?



Yes. My AP has gone from $299 to $425 in five years (less, I think). I'd love to know what I am paying for beyond NGE.



Nah, The Lone Ranger was actually entertaining. MAGIC Bands don't get me hot and bothered.

I agree with the entertainment aspect. I think that John Carter and The Lone Ranger will find their audience. Both films were unfairly raked over the coals by critics who didn't even wait for their release dates. Fantasia was a flop, only to be rediscovered years later.....

 

[flynnibus]

I doubt they ever planned to fill Fallon's audience with theme park lifestylers.

That would make for some pretty bad audience shots..

 

[zooey]

I agree with the entertainment aspect. I think that John Carter and The Lone Ranger will find their audience. Both films were unfairly raked over the coals by critics who didn't even wait for their release dates. Fantasia was a flop, only to be rediscovered years later.....

Tarantino named The Lone Ranger one of his favorite films of that year. Mostly because of the train sequence at the end, which is the best, technically and thematically, part of the film.

 

[Darth Sidious]

Remember that time Comcast became the Disney of old and Disney became... Complacent.

That's how I felt when watching the Tonight Show at Universal Studios promo. They are firing on all cylinders right now and it reminds me of how Disney used to be pre-9/11 under Eisner.

 

[Nubs70]

Right. I tend to use the term "maintenance" as shorthand on this forum, although strictly speaking, I am wrong to do so. True maintenance should be captured in opex, not capex.

Perhaps it's best to quote from Disney's 10K:

Investing Activities
Investing activities consist principally of investments in parks, resorts and other property and acquisition and divestiture activity.

...

Capital expenditures for the Parks and Resorts segment are principally for theme park and resort expansion, new rides and attractions, cruise ships, recurring capital and capital improvements and systems infrastructure.​

The parks in general and WDW in particular are huge physical assets requiring 24-hour support for tens-of-millions of customers annually. Not surprisingly, they require tremendous amounts of "recurring capital and capital improvements and systems infrastructure" to maintain.

Then perhaps it's best to finish with what Rasulo said about capex in 2011:

Let me start with your CapEx question, and this is one that I get asked often and I will try to give you some perspective on it. Five years ago or so we used to be pretty demonstrative about $1 billion number being an ongoing level without special projects added to it.

You have to remember though that in those five years in the capital projects that we have put in the ground, which each have their own growth strategy, each is filling in different parts of the portfolio, when they are back on board they all need ongoing FF&E and maintenance capital to keep them going.

So I would say that that $1 billion number is low. But certainly we have been pretty clear about the levels we are spending in fiscal 2011 and 2012 being at the other end of the spectrum, being very high because of the addition of the two cruise ships, the Aulani hotel, the work we're doing at DCA, all the work we're doing at Walt Disney World has really created a bubble for us that is not our long-term plan.

I think that you will hear about longer-term projects. Shanghai, we talked a little bit about as a contributor to 2012 capital expenditures, and that will ramp up over time.

Remember that only 43% of that capital is ours. So even though it is a big contributor, the Chinese government contributes 57% of that and we back that cash out of a financing -- lower financing line in our P&L.

So I can't give you exact specificity on our ongoing capital level, but let's say it will be higher than $1 billion, but much lower than the 2.5 to 3 we have been at.
​

In 2011, P&R capex was $2.7B. In 2012, it was $2.9B. In 2013, it was $2.1B.

It can get confusing these days when people throw out the term "investing". As some say that TDO needs to "invest" in park upkeep. I want to put my hand through my Kindle. It's not investing, it's upkeep.

I keep it straight by the analogy of a house. Changing a lightbulb or mowing the lawn does not increase the taxable value of the home, therefore, it is a maintenance expense. A 500 ft2 addition is an investment expense because the home value increases.

 

[the.dreamfinder]

So this got the fanboys all hot and bothered today.
#RichRoss'BFRunsD23