The Spirited Seventh Heaven ...

Scuttle

Well-Known Member
The "sharp pencil guys" (as Walt Disney called them) have no control over economic forces. Nor did they anticipate the delayed rollout of MyMagic+, which even Iger had to backpeddle on in front of Wall Street.

Those running WDW are highly attuned to the concept of lean enterprise. It's why, for example, we've seen WDW decrease the number of varieties of french fries, eliminate printed napkins, reduce consumables in hotel rooms, defer maintenance, etc. Improved operational efficiency was one of the big selling points of MyMagic+. Current WDW management lives and breathes for improved efficiency.

Instead of improving efficiency, this is what has happened to the number of unoccupied rooms:

View attachment 56243

The number of unoccupied rooms is at an all-time high. The number of empty room nights now exceeds the post-9/11 economy, which had a debilitating effect on WDW's business.

Put another way, WDW now has the equivalent of a completely empty Grand Flordian, Polynesian, Port Orleans French Quarter, and Pop Century every night.

With Per Room Guest Spending (PRGS) at $267 in 2013, over 2.2 million unoccupied room nights represent a tremendous waste of company assets and over $500M in lost revenue annually.

The idea that those running WDW would intentionally increase room inventory so that the number of unoccupied room nights would increase simply ignores their behavior in all other aspects of WDW operation.
Where do you get these wonderful stats!?
 

71jason

Well-Known Member
The garages at Universal were originally built to be able to added levels later on if needed, so I assume they would go up.

Can they throw those levels up in the next two weeks? Because there about to be needed.

Even if they could, only alleviates one issue. Still need to deal with the toll booths. And the access roads, particularly Universal Blvd.
 

71jason

Well-Known Member
Can I ask just one stupid question why is it not possible for everyone to enjoy and like both parks? Why do you have to hate wdw and love uni?

I have APs to both, visit both on average at least once a week, probably more. I enjoy both, but also recognize each has some severe flaws. Discussing those flaws does not mean I "hate" the park. It does mean I'd love it if they were improved.
 

Lord_Vader

Join me, together we can rule the galaxy.
The "sharp pencil guys" (as Walt Disney called them) have no control over economic forces. Nor did they anticipate the delayed rollout of MyMagic+, which even Iger had to backpeddle on in front of Wall Street.

Those running WDW are highly attuned to the concept of lean enterprise. It's why, for example, we've seen WDW decrease the number of varieties of french fries, eliminate printed napkins, reduce consumables in hotel rooms, defer maintenance, etc. Improved operational efficiency was one of the big selling points of MyMagic+. Current WDW management lives and breathes for improved efficiency.

Instead of improving efficiency, this is what has happened to the number of unoccupied rooms:

View attachment 56243

The number of unoccupied rooms is at an all-time high. The number of empty room nights now exceeds the post-9/11 economy, which had a debilitating effect on WDW's business.

Put another way, WDW now has the equivalent of a completely empty Grand Flordian, Polynesian, Port Orleans French Quarter, and Pop Century every night.

With Per Room Guest Spending (PRGS) at $267 in 2013, over 2.2 million unoccupied room nights represent a tremendous waste of company assets and over $500M in lost revenue annually.

The idea that those running WDW would intentionally increase room inventory so that the number of unoccupied room nights would increase simply ignores their behavior in all other aspects of WDW operation.

You keep ignoring the fact that they sold 1000 more rooms per night in 2013 compared to 2012 and that figure is based on your numbers.

I get the streamlining they are doing, don't like it a bit but that has little to do with room vacancies. I also get that room vacancies are at an all time high but the rooms rented are also up which is not an indicator of efficiency it just means they added rooms when they did not need to, they still sold 1000 rooms per night more 2013 than in 2012. With your stated PRGS of $267, the 1000 rooms (year over year additions) rented per night add up to $97,455,000 per year. Lately TDO has been about expanding resort capacity, not attractions which is not popular at all but is absolutely necessary for the long term growth shareholders expect. If I own four fast food restaurants and add a fifth, I expect a bit of my sales from each of the four existing restaurants to go down a small amount and be more than offset by the increased sales at the fifth. Over time all five grow to a total amount that is more than the original four could have but I would have a lot of empty seats possible in the short term.

I didn't state that they intentionally increased room inventory so the unoccupied rooms would increase, my statement was that the anticipated demand did not materialize which might be attributed to the delays in MM+.
 

Expo_Seeker40

Well-Known Member
What brought you out to KI if you do not mind me asking? We have had passes for years and have always enjoyed it. Sure the park has changed drastically form the version seen on the Brady Bunch to today (some for good, others not so) but it is still a great diversion. Did you like Banshee? For my money, the Beast is still the best coaster I have ever ridden, wood or not.
I love roller coasters, but the Banshee made me sick as a dog. I had to rest for over an hour. I loved the Beast and how it's going strong after 35 years and it's still the longest wooden roller coaster. The Racer was great too, but needs some new paint, but they were racing the cars, which they can't always do.

I didn't like how generic pop music played throughout the park. Would have really liked to have area specific music, but I found the park to be very well maintained.
 

tirian

Well-Known Member
He meant that she had budgeted $300, but only purchased 1 T-shirt because she didn't see anything else she wanted to purchase.

I actually have spent that much on souvenirs back when each area had theme specific items. I still have a hammered brass fireplace bellows that I purchased in Morocco a couple of decades ago - and it was made in Morocco! I went back and purchased another for a gift, but when I wanted a third, they were gone.

My daughter still has a kimono purchased in Japan, and we have a couple of teapots purchased there. I used to make multiple trips a year, so didn't purchase everything in one trip, but if I hadn't spaced them, I would have spent over $300.
Yes, it's easy to go on a shopping spree in Epcot! But I think people are mostly talking about the lack of value in Disney-branded merchandise.

I've lost track of how much $$$ I've spent in the Japan pavilion! :D
 

tirian

Well-Known Member
She spent $28 on a t-shirt. Re-read my post. :D

Wait, she couldn't find anything to spend money on, so she only spent $300.00+ for souvenirs? What? I don't think I have spent $300.00 on souvenirs over the 31 years that I have been regularly going there. Damn, I must be poor.


Not a Dole Whip, but a Dole Whip Float will nicely wash down the Mickey Bar. Dole is the second reason for going, but the line cannot be any longer then to Jacksonville.


I think pricing is a big part of what you are saying, but, perhaps we are falsely blaming ticket prices when it is actually the food and housing that is taking the biggest cut of the paycheck. After all the prices only went up a few percentage points. Not that much different from last year. All it did was point out how expensive it is to go to WDW, but I wonder if it's the ticket price or everything else.

My point is that if the bodies are still showing up, then the ticket price is not the problem. If more are staying offsite, blame that on the cost of staying in a Disney Resort Hotel. If people are eating in their room more, it's probably because the cost to eat at Disney, considering that the food isn't all that great, is far too expensive. Something is causing that reaction, but, I don't think it is the cost of admission alone. That is still pretty reasonable if we stop looking at it from a 1 day rate. People do still pay for it that way, but that is only because if you are only going for 1 day it is cheaper then buying multi-day tickets and then not using them.


That sounds pretty much like the general reaction to today's WDW. However, we were talking about admission prices not the cost of a room, meals or useless trinkets. In my opinion, if Disney has any justifiable charges it is for the tickets. Everything else like room rates, meal prices and souvenir prices are what are unjustifiably through the roof. That is what people are spending less on and when one considers the profit margin on all those things it doesn't take too many doing it differently to bring the profits down.
 

Hyperspace Hoopla

Well-Known Member
At what point do DVC sales impact WDW room vacancies? We were always good for at least 15 nights a year until we bought a DVC resale. If a large enough portion of their biggest fans do the same, does it eventually hurt occupancy rates to sell more DVC?
 

Witchy Chick

Well-Known Member
You keep ignoring the fact that they sold 1000 more rooms per night in 2013 compared to 2012 and that figure is based on your numbers.

I get the streamlining they are doing, don't like it a bit but that has little to do with room vacancies. I also get that room vacancies are at an all time high but the rooms rented are also up which is not an indicator of efficiency it just means they added rooms when they did not need to, they still sold 1000 rooms per night more 2013 than in 2012. With your stated PRGS of $267, the 1000 rooms (year over year additions) rented per night add up to $97,455,000 per year. Lately TDO has been about expanding resort capacity, not attractions which is not popular at all but is absolutely necessary for the long term growth shareholders expect. If I own four fast food restaurants and add a fifth, I expect a bit of my sales from each of the four existing restaurants to go down a small amount and be more than offset by the increased sales at the fifth. Over time all five grow to a total amount that is more than the original four could have but I would have a lot of empty seats possible in the short term.

I didn't state that they intentionally increased room inventory so the unoccupied rooms would increase, my statement was that the anticipated demand did not materialize which might be attributed to the delays in MM+.

First, over time, you would hope that combined revenues for your five restaurants exceed revenues for the original four restaurants. Increased revenues at all 5 of your restaurants is not guaranteed. It could be that your customer base is saturated at 4 restaurants and will not support a 5th one. It could be that your combined revenues for the original 4 restaurants are now spread across 5 locations.

When you open restaurant #5, what happens to your overall labor and overhead for all of your restaurants? Or are you cutting labor and food choices at restaurants 1-4 to offset increased overhead and labor now that restaurant #5 is open?

What happens if -- to cover labor/overhead at restaurant #5 -- you start charging 15-30% more for the same food that has always been served? What happens if you decide to cut one of your moderately popular meal choices with no replacement? Or you choose a different, cheaper supplier of your French Fries and your customers don't like the Fries? What do you do when one of your soda dispensers breaks -- fix it or just say "oh well, customers will just have to use the other one even if they have to wait a bit longer to access that machine"?

What happens if these things happen, and some of your (previously) loyal customers are now extremely unhappy with your restaurants? Not only do they find other restaurants to frequent, but they tell their friends "oh don't go to XYZ Burger, that place has gone way downhill since they opened that 5th location."
 

Lord_Vader

Join me, together we can rule the galaxy.
First, over time, you would hope that combined revenues for your five restaurants exceed revenues for the original four restaurants. Increased revenues at all 5 of your restaurants is not guaranteed. It could be that your customer base is saturated at 4 restaurants and will not support a 5th one. It could be that your combined revenues for the original 4 restaurants are now spread across 5 locations.

When you open restaurant #5, what happens to your overall labor and overhead for all of your restaurants? Or are you cutting labor and food choices at restaurants 1-4 to offset increased overhead and labor now that restaurant #5 is open?

What happens if -- to cover labor/overhead at restaurant #5 -- you start charging 15-30% more for the same food that has always been served? What happens if you decide to cut one of your moderately popular meal choices with no replacement? Or you choose a different, cheaper supplier of your French Fries and your customers don't like the Fries? What do you do when one of your soda dispensers breaks -- fix it or just say "oh well, customers will just have to use the other one even if they have to wait a bit longer to access that machine"?

What happens if these things happen, and some of your (previously) loyal customers are now extremely unhappy with your restaurants? Not only do they find other restaurants to frequent, but they tell their friends "oh don't go to XYZ Burger, that place has gone way downhill since they opened that 5th location."

All good points, from a business perspective you would try to cut labor at 1-4 and offset some initial overhead expenses for #5 but that is a risk/reward discussion.

No argument that TDO is cutting corners lately, some are very noticeable while others I can simply overlook as many guests do. When the cuts reach a pain point, we will spend our vacation dollars elsewhere.
 

Ignohippo

Well-Known Member
or they could use more street-like vendors roaming on high line zones.
can you imagine a mickey ice cream bar vendor right outside the thunder mountain when it as its huge waiting line?
how about the after the shows in the center hub?



with these prices.. I would never go to a movie theatre!

entrance is just 3.5 USD here, package of 2 sodas + giant popcorn is 7.5 USD


HA! It's funny you mention that. I've never understood why theme parks don't put vendors in queue lines.

We waited for about 30 minutes in the hot florida heat last week for Kilaminjaro Safaris. We would have killed for someplace to buy soft drinks or waters.

Walmart would make the wait times long on purpose and then have vendors at every 5 feet!!
 

Ignohippo

Well-Known Member
I know I'm in a minority, but Disney World is pretty affordable for me. The people I go with all pay for their own food and drinks etc. and we even split the hotel bill. I know this will all change when I have a family to pay for but right now it's pretty good. We drive up to Orlando every few months with our AP's to both Disney and Universal.


– said Donald Trump
 

Hula Popper

Well-Known Member
Someone asked the PP who posted the chart where he got his numbers from, but I don't believe he or she has answered. It looks like they are from Disney's Annual Reports. It should be noted that the Annual Report numbers reflect all domestic Disney hotels, not just WDW. Obviously, WDW makes up the vast majority of domestic Disney hotels, but there are also the Disneyland hotels, Aulani, and non-DVC used rooms at Vero Beach and Hilton Head included in the annual report statistics.

I am not entirely clear on this, but it's my understanding that the hotel statistics in the Annual Reports only include DVC rooms to the extent those rooms were not used by DVC members.

Disney's fiscal year ends on September 30, so the 2013 hotel occupancy numbers they report are through September 30, 2013, not through the end of the year. There was an 81% occupancy rate for the October 1, 2011-September 30, 2012 period and a 79% occupancy rate for the October 1, 2012-September 30, 2013 period across all domestic Disney resorts.

The $267 per room guest spending for FY2013 consists of the average daily hotel room rate as well as guest-spending on food, beverage and merchandise at the hotels. Again, this is a Disney-wide statistic (domestic), not just a WDW statistic.

Disney reported 86% occupancy during the the 2Q (January 1, 2014-March 31, 2014), which is reportedly up from 80% in the 2nd quarter last year, despite Easter falling in April this year instead of March like last year. They've also said occupancy was up in Q1, but I don't recall seeing an actual rate for Q1.
 

ParentsOf4

Well-Known Member
You keep ignoring the fact that they sold 1000 more rooms per night in 2013 compared to 2012 and that figure is based on your numbers.

I get the streamlining they are doing, don't like it a bit but that has little to do with room vacancies. I also get that room vacancies are at an all time high but the rooms rented are also up which is not an indicator of efficiency it just means they added rooms when they did not need to, they still sold 1000 rooms per night more 2013 than in 2012. With your stated PRGS of $267, the 1000 rooms (year over year additions) rented per night add up to $97,455,000 per year. Lately TDO has been about expanding resort capacity, not attractions which is not popular at all but is absolutely necessary for the long term growth shareholders expect. If I own four fast food restaurants and add a fifth, I expect a bit of my sales from each of the four existing restaurants to go down a small amount and be more than offset by the increased sales at the fifth. Over time all five grow to a total amount that is more than the original four could have but I would have a lot of empty seats possible in the short term.

I didn't state that they intentionally increased room inventory so the unoccupied rooms would increase, my statement was that the anticipated demand did not materialize which might be attributed to the delays in MM+.
Modern business management doesn't focus on number of units sold or revenue; it focuses on margins. I don't want more sales if it's going to hurt my margins. Frankly, I (politely) dump low-margin customers.

In the case of Art Of Animation (AOA), Disney paid for the expense of completing the resort, hired additional staff to run the resort, incurred additional reoccurring FF&E expenses to maintain the resort, and added buses & drivers to service the resort.

When it comes to hotels, costs are disproportionally born by those who first occupy the rooms. Using a number for a fictitious hotel, a 50% occupancy rate must be achieved to simply cover costs. Beyond that level, profits quickly climb as the incremental cost of servicing additional guests declines to just pennies on the dollar.

In the case of AOA, sales of WDW rooms went up by 360K but inventory rose 720K, the equivalent of a 50% occupancy rate. (Disney's pre-AOA hotel occupancy rate was much higher.) Even worse, AOA almost certainly stole guests from higher margin Moderate Resorts or other more occupied (and therefore more profitable) Value Resorts. AOA cannibalized sales & profits from other Disney hotels.

Meanwhile, sales of AOA's 864 overpriced Family Suites have been lackluster, something that no doubt wasn't anticipated when Disney ran the numbers to decide how many single units vs. suites to construct, and how to price them.

All things considered, AOA probably is close to a breakeven venture for Disney right now. It certainly has eroded margins.

Selling more of something isn't always good if it hurts profitability.
 
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TP2000

Well-Known Member
Meh.. nice upgrade for LAX, but I don't find the visuals all that stunning. Oslo Gardermoen still looks nicer and is over 15yrs old. Glass, exposed wood, and Scandinavian minimalism age well :)

Agreed. But good Scandinavian design always ages well, that's not a concept exclusive to airport architecture or the 21st century. Much less aging Scandinavians like myself. ;)

That's why the 60 year old "Danish Modern" furniture pieces in my home still look fresh and fantastic in 21st century SoCal. LAX should have been on its third renovation by now, after it stopped being modern and useful about the same time stewardesses stopped wearing miniskirts and go-go boots. But it's finally getting a renovation to the tune of Billions of dollars and it will take years of construction and headache.

I wish them well. But it's still a gross airport. And what a miserably frustrating way to start or end a Disneyland vacation. Much less the embarrassment that LAX provides as a major port of entry to overseas visitors to our country. Eek!
 
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Lord_Vader

Join me, together we can rule the galaxy.
Modern business management doesn't focus on number of units sold or revenue; it focuses on margins. I don't want more sales if it's going to hurt my margins. Frankly, I (politely) dump low-margin customers.

In the case of Art Of Animation (AOA), Disney paid for the expense of completing the resort, hired additional staff to run the resort, incurred additional reoccurring FF&E expenses to maintain the resort, and added buses & drivers to service the resort.

When it comes to hotels, costs are disproportionally born by those who first occupy the rooms. Using a number for a fictitious hotel, a 50% occupancy rate must be achieved to simply cover costs. Beyond that level, profits quickly climb as the incremental cost of servicing additional guests declines to just pennies on the dollar.

In the case of AOA, sales of WDW rooms went up by 360K but inventory rose 720K, the equivalent of a 50% occupancy rate. (Disney's pre-AOA hotel occupancy rate was at much higher.) Even worse, AOA almost certainly stole guests from higher margin Moderate Resorts or other more occupied (and therefore more profitable) Value Resorts. AOA cannibalized sales & profits from other Disney hotels.

Meanwhile, sales of AOA's 864 overpriced Family Suites have been lackluster, something that no doubt wasn't anticipated when Disney ran the numbers to decide how many single rooms vs. suites to construct.

All things considered, AOA probably is close to a breakeven venture for Disney right now. It certainly has eroded margins.

Selling more of something isn't always good if it hurts profitability.

I wasn't arguing margins, I get hotel occupancy rates drive profit. The first 30%-40% bear most of the resort costs with the remaining 60%-70% being highly profitable. My point was TDO was willing to sacrifice short term profit for long-term growth. A business has to pick a time to expand at some point or wait until they are turning customers away which is too late. I never advocated that they should have built just that they did sell more room nights on average year over year resort wide countering your implied statement that they were actually declining.

AoA is a highly sought after resort and one of the most difficult to get a room at during peak attendance, especially the high-margin family suites which is why they are not offering discounts or free-dining in AoA. TDO continually offers discounted rooms at most moderates, some values and many deluxe resorts but these have been greatly cut back this year, especially this summer. Margins will be going up as the reservation levels appear to be much higher this summer than last, the much more limited discount offerings are the main clue there. Last summer I was able to secure 35% room discounts at various Deluxe resorts with the best views, this year they are limited to stays of 7 days or more and only the standard view rooms at most resorts and many of those top out at 30%.

Are WDW resorts overpriced, maybe? Many on these boards, as well as others, think so but a great deal of WDWs guests do not or simply pay the price of admission. Along the same line, I personally feel that $125 for a single ticket to a 3 hour concert is crazy but here locally bands routinely sell out 20,000 our seat arena.
 

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