The Spirited Back Nine ...

[flynnibus]

Talking about WDW's "saturated utilization" is representative of exactly what's wrong with today's TDO.

No - it is pointing out where you have dead weight and under performing attractions. Why should I build more attractions if many are being passed over to start? The point being... build out parks that people are having fun in before deciding yet another park is the solution. Stop trying to funnel your entire property into a single park every night because your other existing parks and all their overhead can't function successfully for 16hrs a day.

If you have a flat tire... you should fix the tire... not go out and buy another car with only 3 good wheels.

Since then, WDW attendance is up over 10 million, far above Disney's original projection used to justify DAK.

First.. I take all those attendance counts with a grain of salt.... the way Disney releases them they aren't concrete enough to argue how the property functions as a whole.

My point is... why add another park when you have huge swaths of existing development basically just chewing up your resources? Don't just add another park of 'more of the same' theme park because you already have enough theme park that most people can't consume it all. Expand the business.. not just duplicate it onsite. Just like when they moved into the cruise business.. or expanded onto the other coast to tap new markets, etc.

I don't look at it as a capacity problem as much as a 'how do I grow the business'. And whole new footprints like that should be paid expansions... and not just $5 more on everyone's ticket IMO.

 

[GoofGoof]

2013 is the first year MK surpassed 1991 attendance figures (18.6 millions this year vs 18 million in 1991.) Predicting another 14 million gate clicks by 2025 is a bit optimistic as attendance figures fluctuate up and down all the time.

I agree infrastructure and park capacity must be upgraded to meet current demand and have an eye on projecting meeting future demand. The focus in the near term should be transportation and other infrastructure within the resort while building out the current 4 parks. That would certainly go beyond 2025. Only after large scale infrastructure improvements including a more efficient system for transporting guests around the property can you look at adding even more places for them to go.

For those interested here is an attendance chart. As a side note although this is the info published by TEA we have access to, don't believe MK outdraws TDL for a second. No way.

source: http://www.scottware.com.au/theme/feature/atend_disparks.htm

He was looking at all of WDW not just MK. All 4 parks combined are up over 10 Million from 1991 levels. Opening AK leveled out attendance and like you pointed out MK just now got back to 1991 levels and EPCOT is still below 1991 but DHS is up and AK has 10M. The theory is that without AK sucking up those 10 million clicks the other 3 parks would each have millions more visitors and making the crowds even more unbearable. If crowds continue to increase a 5th gate would help to further disperse the crowds.

 

[GoofGoof]

Saturating utilization of the existing parks means filling in the massive gaps that make travel such a huge component of time spent at Walt Disney World. Giving people surprise diversions from where the pack is going add to the fun. This would also make it acceptable to miss something, because the loss is less noticed due to being replaced with other experiences.

I think some of what they are doing with FP+ is an attempt to guide people in this direction. Adding things like shows/parades/fireworks and meet and greets to the offerings is attempting to put those things on par with rides. I think if they really wanted to do this right they would need more meaningful diversions, but for some people those offerings are worth using a FP on.

 

[ParentsOf4]

2013 is the first year MK surpassed 1991 attendance figures (18.6 millions this year vs 18 million in 1991.) Predicting another 14 million gate clicks by 2025 is a bit optimistic as attendance figures fluctuate up and down all the time.

I agree infrastructure and park capacity must be upgraded to meet current demand and have an eye on projecting meeting future demand. The focus in the near term should be transportation and other infrastructure within the resort while building out the current 4 parks. That would certainly go beyond 2025. Only after large scale infrastructure improvements including a more efficient system for transporting guests around the property can you look at adding even more places for them to go.

For those interested here is an attendance chart. As a side note although this is the info published by TEA we have access to, don't believe MK outdraws TDL for a second. No way.

source: http://www.scottware.com.au/theme/feature/atend_disparks.htm

Please be aware that there are significant flaws with the data presented by Theme Park Queues.

WDW attendance was 33.7M in 1990, while Parks & Resorts revenue declined by 5.1% in 1991. (For those of you too young to remember, there was a major recession in 1991 that ultimately cost George Bush Sr. the election.) Yet Theme Park Queues would have you believe that WDW's 3 theme parks had a combined attendance of 39.2M (18.0 + 14.4 + 6.8) in 1991.

Meanwhile, Theme Park Queues reported a combined attendance of only 29.5M (11.5 + 10.0 + 8.0) in 1992 (almost 10 million less), a year when Parks & Resorts revenue grew by 15.4%.

If you don't think those numbers are relevant, then please consider theme park admission revenue reported by Disney in its annual report for the years in question:

- 1990 Admission Revenue: $1.180 billion
- 1991 Admission Revenue: $1.093 billion
- 1992 Admission Revenue: $1.247 billion

Theme Park Queues would have you believe that a one-year spike in 1991 of 9.7 million (39.2 - 29.5) Guests resulted in $154 million less (1.247 - 1.093) in ticket revenue.

Hopefully, it's obvious that Theme Park Queues' data is fatally flawed.

 

[ParentsOf4]

No - it is pointing out where you have dead weight and under performing attractions. Why should I build more attractions if many are being passed over to start? The point being... build out parks that people are having fun in before deciding yet another park is the solution. Stop trying to funnel your entire property into a single park every night because your other existing parks and all their overhead can't function successfully for 16hrs a day.

If you have a flat tire... you should fix the tire... not go out and buy another car with only 3 good wheels.

First.. I take all those attendance counts with a grain of salt.... the way Disney releases them they aren't concrete enough to argue how the property functions as a whole.

My point is... why add another park when you have huge swaths of existing development basically just chewing up your resources? Don't just add another park of 'more of the same' theme park because you already have enough theme park that most people can't consume it all. Expand the business.. not just duplicate it onsite. Just like when they moved into the cruise business.. or expanded onto the other coast to tap new markets, etc.

I don't look at it as a capacity problem as much as a 'how do I grow the business'. And whole new footprints like that should be paid expansions... and not just $5 more on everyone's ticket IMO.

Thank you for taking the time to explain your thinking to me. I now have a better appreciation of the point you were making.

I think we both agree that filling out the existing parks with better attractions is the next step.

 

[Travel Junkie]

Please be aware that there are significant flaws with the data presented by Theme Park Queues.

WDW attendance was 33.7M in 1990, while Parks & Resorts revenue declined by 5.1% in 1991. (For those of you too young to remember, there was a major recession in 1991 that ultimately cost George Bush Sr. the election.) Yet Theme Park Queues would have you believe that WDW's 3 theme parks had a combined attendance of 39.2M (18.0 + 14.4 + 6.8) in 1991.

Meanwhile, Theme Park Queues reported a combined attendance of only 29.5M (11.5 + 10.0 + 8.0) in 1992 (almost 10 million less), a year when Parks & Resorts revenue grew by 15.4%.

If you don't think those numbers are relevant, then please consider theme park admission revenue reported by Disney in its annual report for the years in question:

- 1990 Admission Revenue: $1.180 billion
- 1991 Admission Revenue: $1.093 billion
- 1992 Admission Revenue: $1.247 billion

Theme Park Queues would have you believe that a one-year spike in 1991 of 9.7 million (39.2 - 29.5) Guests resulted in $154 million less (1.247 - 1.093) in ticket revenue.

Hopefully, it's obvious that Theme Park Queues' data is fatally flawed.

Thanks for the insight. TEA’s projections that are often quoted are also very flawed. They would have you believe MK outdraws TDL. These are 2 parks with roughly the same capacity. If anything TDL has more. MK reaches capacity a handful of times a year. TDL reaches capacity a handful of times a month. I would wager that most off season weekdays TDL outdraws MK. They would also have you believe DHS and AK are getting 10 million a year, a figure that given the ride capacity at those parks is laughable.

I appreciate all the insight you give and are much more knowledgeable than myself on financials. I believe that if you fully develop the 4 current theme parks and create an efficient transportation system for getting visitors around the resort, a lot of the problems that currently exist would be greatly reduced. Adding a 5th gate that likely would open underdeveloped would just exacerbate the problem. Another half day park with folks heading back to MK after they are done seeing the new stuff.

Speaking of crowds, we could lean a thing or two from our Japanese friends about patience. I have been there with crowds and wait times that would dwarf anything I have seen at WDW or DLR and saw nothing but smiling faces everywhere you turned. I didn’t encounter 1 upset person over the age of 2 in all my time at TDR. As a society we need to slow down a bit and enjoy the scenery. There is a lot of it at WDW to take in. Sorry I keep bringing up Tokyo. I was there last month so it’s been on my mind.

 

[BrianLo]

Thanks for the insight. TEA’s projections that are often quoted are also very flawed. They would have you believe MK outdraws TDL. These are 2 parks with roughly the same capacity. If anything TDL has more. MK reaches capacity a handful of times a year. TDL reaches capacity a handful of times a month. I would wager that most off season weekdays TDL outdraws MK. They would also have you believe DHS and AK are getting 10 million a year, a figure that given the ride capacity at those parks is laughable.

Anecdotally I've been mid-week in May and July, the crowds were light both times. They also have more of a Winter season to contend with, and don't operate as a week long resort destination. Just because they have more highs on weekends and holidays, does not mean they have more lows.

After all, everyone seems to constantly say on here that MK no longer has a slow period.

I don't doubt the TEA numbers are somewhat inaccurate though, but I don't for a second doubt MK is overstuffed.

 

[NearTheEars]

A large part of the monorail problem is that guests needing the express loop to the parking lot keep getting on the resort loop. Not only does this mean that the line at the Magic Kingdom becomes longer, but at the Contemporary stop the trains spend longer at the station as the attendants try to squeeze passengers into trains that arrive full.

And I think part of that problem comes from these WDW secret books and websites that tell folks riding the resort loop can equal quicker service to the TTC.

 

[GoofGoof]

Thanks for the insight. TEA’s projections that are often quoted are also very flawed. They would have you believe MK outdraws TDL. These are 2 parks with roughly the same capacity. If anything TDL has more. MK reaches capacity a handful of times a year. TDL reaches capacity a handful of times a month. I would wager that most off season weekdays TDL outdraws MK. They would also have you believe DHS and AK are getting 10 million a year, a figure that given the ride capacity at those parks is laughable.

I appreciate all the insight you give and are much more knowledgeable than myself on financials. I believe that if you fully develop the 4 current theme parks and create an efficient transportation system for getting visitors around the resort, a lot of the problems that currently exist would be greatly reduced. Adding a 5th gate that likely would open underdeveloped would just exacerbate the problem. Another half day park with folks heading back to MK after they are done seeing the new stuff.

Speaking of crowds, we could lean a thing or two from our Japanese friends about patience. I have been there with crowds and wait times that would dwarf anything I have seen at WDW or DLR and saw nothing but smiling faces everywhere you turned. I didn’t encounter 1 upset person over the age of 2 in all my time at TDR. As a society we need to slow down a bit and enjoy the scenery. There is a lot of it at WDW to take in. Sorry I keep bringing up Tokyo. I was there last month so it’s been on my mind.

Totally agree that people need to slow down and enjoy themselves. It's amazing to see people spending thousands on a vacation and walking around miserable. I think some of it is just a difference in culture too.

I also agree that they need to flesh out the existing parks first. There is available extra capacity that could be used to draw guests from MK. The last thing we need right now is another unfinished park. At some point if you add enough to draw guess in that extra capacity will run out and there will be a need for a 5th gate to make crowds more bearable. We're probably talking 10 to 15 years out at least and only if they follow through with plans to expand DHS and AK.

 

[PhotoDave219]

Thank you for taking the time to explain your thinking to me. I now have a better appreciation of the point you were making.

I think we both agree that filling out the existing parks with better attractions is the next step.

The only issue with this is that there is several years before new attractions will come online.

 

[lazyboy97o]

Thanks for the insight. TEA’s projections that are often quoted are also very flawed. They would have you believe MK outdraws TDL. These are 2 parks with roughly the same capacity. If anything TDL has more. MK reaches capacity a handful of times a year. TDL reaches capacity a handful of times a month. I would wager that most off season weekdays TDL outdraws MK. They would also have you believe DHS and AK are getting 10 million a year, a figure that given the ride capacity at those parks is laughable.

Anecdotally I've been mid-week in May and July, the crowds were light both times. They also have more of a Winter season to contend with, and don't operate as a week long resort destination. Just because they have more highs on weekends and holidays, does not mean they have more lows.

After all, everyone seems to constantly say on here that MK no longer has a slow period.

I don't doubt the TEA numbers are somewhat inaccurate though, but I don't for a second doubt MK is overstuffed.

The TEA isn't the one putting together the numbers. They hire AECOM to do that. This is of note because if anybody is considering building a park anywhere in the world they are more than likely going to have AECOM look into the proposition. Attendance is just a poor metric to use as a king and some important details are not disclosed. Just the experience of a capacity day at Tokyo Disneyland and the Magic Kingdom will different dramatically based on local usage patterns and culture.

 

[lazyboy97o]

I think some of what they are doing with FP+ is an attempt to guide people in this direction. Adding things like shows/parades/fireworks and meet and greets to the offerings is attempting to put those things on par with rides. I think if they really wanted to do this right they would need more meaningful diversions, but for some people those offerings are worth using a FP on.

Those have all become relatively marquee experiences. I mean walkthroughs, exhibits, small dark rides with painted flats, leisure transit rides and those sorts of things.

 

[GoofGoof]

Those have all become relatively marquee experiences. I mean walkthroughs, exhibits, small dark rides with painted flats, leisure transit rides and those sorts of things.

I see what you are saying.

 

[bhg469]

The only issue with this is that there is several years before new attractions will come online.

Closer to a decade.

 

[RSoxNo1]

*blocked*

Country Bear Jamboree

 

[Cesar R M]

Saturating utilization of the existing parks means filling in the massive gaps that make travel such a huge component of time spent at Walt Disney World. Giving people surprise diversions from where the pack is going add to the fun. This would also make it acceptable to miss something, because the loss is less noticed due to being replaced with other experiences.

how do you do that if executives keep cutting entertainment and special little details?

 

[Cesar R M]

No - it is pointing out where you have dead weight and under performing attractions. Why should I build more attractions if many are being passed over to start? The point being... build out parks that people are having fun in before deciding yet another park is the solution. Stop trying to funnel your entire property into a single park every night because your other existing parks and all their overhead can't function successfully for 16hrs a day.

If you have a flat tire... you should fix the tire... not go out and buy another car with only 3 good wheels.



First.. I take all those attendance counts with a grain of salt.... the way Disney releases them they aren't concrete enough to argue how the property functions as a whole.

My point is... why add another park when you have huge swaths of existing development basically just chewing up your resources? Don't just add another park of 'more of the same' theme park because you already have enough theme park that most people can't consume it all. Expand the business.. not just duplicate it onsite. Just like when they moved into the cruise business.. or expanded onto the other coast to tap new markets, etc.

I don't look at it as a capacity problem as much as a 'how do I grow the business'. And whole new footprints like that should be paid expansions... and not just $5 more on everyone's ticket IMO.

I honestly think your cruise thing is flawed.
If the cruises are at 100% most of the time in a single area, you dont "expand" elsewhere. You ADD another ship.
Thats what Disney did by adding the Dream and Fantasy. (and 2 more rumored on the way).
Even other cruise companies are building more.

 

[Next Big Thing]

I honestly think your cruise thing is flawed.
If the cruises are at 100% most of the time in a single area, you dont "expand" elsewhere. You ADD another ship.
Thats what Disney did by adding the Dream and Fantasy. (and 2 more rumored on the way).
Even other cruise companies are building more.

Disney is actually WAY behind in the cruise industry as far as number of ships. The quality of the ships are excellent, but most cruise companies have an incredible line-up of ships. Disney has been fairly cautious in building ships compared to other companies. Hell, they waited 10+ years to build the Dream/Fantasy.

 

[asianway]

Thanks for the insight. TEA’s projections that are often quoted are also very flawed. They would have you believe MK outdraws TDL. These are 2 parks with roughly the same capacity. If anything TDL has more. MK reaches capacity a handful of times a year. TDL reaches capacity a handful of times a month. I would wager that most off season weekdays TDL outdraws MK. They would also have you believe DHS and AK are getting 10 million a year, a figure that given the ride capacity at those parks is laughable.

I appreciate all the insight you give and are much more knowledgeable than myself on financials. I believe that if you fully develop the 4 current theme parks and create an efficient transportation system for getting visitors around the resort, a lot of the problems that currently exist would be greatly reduced. Adding a 5th gate that likely would open underdeveloped would just exacerbate the problem. Another half day park with folks heading back to MK after they are done seeing the new stuff.

Speaking of crowds, we could lean a thing or two from our Japanese friends about patience. I have been there with crowds and wait times that would dwarf anything I have seen at WDW or DLR and saw nothing but smiling faces everywhere you turned. I didn’t encounter 1 upset person over the age of 2 in all my time at TDR. As a society we need to slow down a bit and enjoy the scenery. There is a lot of it at WDW to take in. Sorry I keep bringing up Tokyo. I was there last month so it’s been on my mind.

There's no doubt in my mind TDL is higher than MK, with the double counting of clicks MK gets. Also, does TEA double count party clicks? Cc @Disneyhead'71

 

[PhotoDave219]

Country Bear Jamboree

No.... CBJ just got snipped. Like a briss.