The Spirited 8th Wonder (WDW's Future & You!)

[RSoxNo1]

Let's talk real numbers. These are dated... but it was the last time I dumped all this on a forum. This was a value stay at WDW. If someone was throwing around $8500.. I'd do a 7 day cruise. It's a lot cheaper

But for WDW... here's an old post of mine (June 2009)

The True Cost of a WDW Vacation

Since we just got back from a few days at the kingdom, it was a good time to review our true costs of the trip. Traveling to XYZ vs ABC park is a common discussion topic so I figured sharing our expenses with you will give you all a peek into the true costs of going.

For us it was a family of 5, visiting for 5 days. We were trying to keep it on the cheap side, but not necessarily stripped down. So we booked a few table services, and didn't shy away from spending when necessary.. but didn't go crazy

Airfare:
This segment will always vary for everyone, so it's not as interesting. But in our case, I used miles for 3 of the tickets, mine was paid for because of business, and so we only had to buy one ticket outright.

That ticket for IAD to MCO was $233.20. If we paid for them all, it would have been $1166. It also cost us $60 to park at the airport.
Rental Car:
Because of the 5 people, we needed at least a full sized car. Hotwire car for 5 days = $189.02. Gas for rental car = $18.35

Tickets:
We paid for 5 day park hoppers, at military discount.

3 adults @ 267 each
2 kids @ 232.50 each
Total = $1266

Hotel:
This area will vary greatly as well.. and as noted we were trying to stay cheap this time. So we stayed at the All-Star Sports. However, because we had 5 people, we needed 2 rooms.

Disney was running summer specials, so the rooms were $89 or $99 a night. The next closest prices were either $100 or $300 more. Our total for 2 rooms, for Fri-Wed was $1050.90

So our total 'hard' costs that are outside discretionary spending were:

$ 233.20 Airfare
$ 60.00 Parking
$ 189.02 Car
$ 18.35 Gas
$1266.00 Tickets
$1050.90 Hotel
---------------
$2817.47 Total

Discretionary Spending

Food:
Normally people pick apart food prices. For me, to enjoy my vacation I just need to shut that part of my brain off during vacation to avoid the stress or frustration.

We had 4 table service reservations during the trip, 3 dinners, and 1 breakfast. I'll also break out 'concessions' purchases as normally people look at those buys differently. However, given it was completely oppressive heat while we where there, there was 'no holds barred' kind of buying on drinks. If we need one, we got one. Especially the frozen drinks. On table service, usually I wouldn't get an entree, so these prices are not quite 5 people eating..
Table Service Meals
$ 88.00 Sci-Fi Dine-In
$121.13 Tusker House Character Breakfast
$108.14 Whispering Canyon
$ 73.55 San Angel
Counter Service Meals
$ 35.09 Food Court
$ 7.45 Food Court
$ 19.24 Food Court
$ 28.61 Backlot Express
$ 13.90 Food Court
$ 29.26 Food Court
$ 10.79 Food Court
$ 28.06 Caseys Corner
$ 13.29 Cosmic Rays
$ 17.64 Cosmic Rays
Cart Sales$ 6.16 MK
$ 7.01 DHS
$ 7.55 DHS
$ 5.00 MK
$ 7.01 DHS
$10.09 DHS
$ 6.53 DHS
$10.75 DAK
$ 4.04 DAK
$13.50 EPC
$11.25 DHS
$ 7.01 DHS
$ 5.10 DHS
$ 4.57 MK
$ 7.01 MK
Total Food Spending
$ 390.94 Table Service
$ 203.33 Counter Service
$ 112.58 Cart Sales
---------------------
$ 706.85 Total

Merchandise

We only really make two buys.. some shirts and some small things.

$ 17.00
$ 61.67
$ 51.60
--------
$ 130.27 Total

Grand Totals
$2817.47 Transportation, Lodging, Tickets
$ 706.85 Food
$ 130.27 Merchandise
-------------
$3654.59 Total

So there you have it.. $3600 for 5 people for 5 days.

I'm glad you broke this out. I've had conversations with people about how Disney can spend $2 billion on Next Gen, or more accurately they'll ask, "How do they not know what it costs?" I ask them the question, how much did you spend on your last vacation? Rarely if ever is anyone able to process something as detailed as this. They might know the cost of the hotel, tickets and airfare, but nothing else.

 

[GoofGoof]

I'm glad you broke this out. I've had conversations with people about how Disney can spend $2 billion on Next Gen, or more accurately they'll ask, "How do they not know what it costs?" I ask them the question, how much did you spend on your last vacation? Rarely if ever is anyone able to process something as detailed as this. They might know the cost of the hotel, tickets and airfare, but nothing else.

This is very true. I usually don't see the total damage until I'm paying my credit card bill. Even then a lot of people barely look at the charges let alone add them up. Small things can add up fast.

To tie this back into DVC, there is a psychological theory out there that having your DVC room "pre-paid" results in more spending on the actual trip. When you know there is no hotel bill at check out you spend a little more on other stuff. I've heard people dispute this, but it makes a lot of sense. You pay your maintenance fees in January and it's sorta outa sight, outa mind.

 

[BigThunderMatt]

The last time they were bold with anything Walt Disney World related was 2003 when they opened Mission: SPACE. Everything else since has been low risk additions.

What's their incentive to put in anything high-risk (other than these fancy new wristbands everyone seems to be wearing and complaining about)? From where they stand they're still drawing in money with low risk stuff hand over fist. They've been doing it for so long they've forgotten about high risk projects that have paid off for them in the past. They all can't be cash cows but now anything other than the status quo is high risk. If it even has the slightest bit of potential to cause them to break even it won't be touched.

 

[AEfx]

When I was in O-Town for the 4th, I visited the amazing Hilton Orlando (at the CC)...

I have to always remind myself when you rave about the Hilton, it's not that piece of garbage one at DTD, LOL. I can only imagine that place stays in business because of Priceline (the only reason I was there, and not the far nicer Grand Cypress across the street - I lost the gamble), and folks using Hilton points to stay at WDW.

Disney HAS priced enough folks out of its deluxe resorts (and moderates) that it is planning on converting a significant number to timeshare rather than come up with a more realistic pricing model. That means enough people are NOT willing to pay their rates.

They've priced folks out of the values, too - LOL. I too remember the $59 deal rates at PoP when it opened - now they want $140 for a motel room you can't even park in front of. It's insanity. Once it was over $79 a night was when I started staying off-property, even when I am there alone. Especially since the upkeep has been shameful, at least was as of the last time I was there - cracked/broken stucco everywhere, and the whole place just had a film of dirty over it. For a resort that is so new, it's like they haven't touched anything since the day it was completed.

I still say the best value in Orlando is the Motel 6 just outside the gate - it was newly refurbed too, I believe it's still like $40/night. It's literally about 90 seconds from MGM by car, and is always very clean - and really, really nice staff. I certainly wouldn't take a once-in-a-lifetime vacation there, but for a few days down by myself where I'm just going to the room to sleep? Place is amazing. When I used to have my AP, I could spend a week at Disney for $5-600 if I drove (and that includes at least a table service park meal/day). Used to do it every few months, back when they actually used to at least pretend to be adding new stuff. These days, when I do go - I prefer the Grand Cypress at DTD if I can snag it on Priceline - but I'd still stay at that Motel 6 for a day or three in between coming/going if need be.

I think there is some truth to this. For a one time visitor it's virtually impossible to do everything in a week. Regular visitors may skip a lot at the parks and breeze through it in much less time. I think this connects back to what @flynnibus was saying about losing the feeling of the "vacation kingdom". There is so much to do that a large chunk of guests skipped things outside the parks that were offered.

I think it's more that the bloom is off that rose. Back in the day, horse rides, boat rentals, etc. was necessary for WDW to attract folks for a full week, or even 5 days. There just weren't enough parks. With the prices folks pay now, and the whole "pay less per day" thing - folks just don't feel like they have time for things they can do pretty much anywhere. The novelty of doing something you can do virtually anywhere (and usually better/cheaper) wears off quickly just because you add "@ Disney" to it.

What I can't digest personally is.. how people can subscribe to the idea they want to return to the same place religiously for decades. I say that kind of hypocritically because I've been to the same beach town every year of my life... but its because its where we goto relax, plus entertainment. I can't fathom paying to visit WDW as my relax escape. Maybe it's the distance... maybe it's the looming parks.. I don't know. But it is why DVC didn't appeal to us. I can opt to not goto the beach

Exactly. I don't buy this notion that almost anyone goes to WDW to "relax". It's kind of absurd just on the surface. You only hear such things on Disney message boards where folks say it who are DVC owners or just addicted to proximity to pixie dust. Virtually no one goes to Orlando (a land-locked swamp) for anything other than theme parks or conventions. There are far more picturesque, luxurious, relaxing places to go for a fraction of the cost. I'm not one for a beach vacation myself (I live two miles from a beach, I'm all set with that) but even if folks just want to sit poolside - doing so in the middle of Orlando, which most folks think is the armpit of Florida, for anything other than theme parks (or the aforementioned conventions) is simply not how most folks think.

 

[RSoxNo1]

What's their incentive to put in anything high-risk (other than these fancy new wristbands everyone seems to be wearing and complaining about)? From where they stand they're still drawing in money with low risk stuff hand over fist. They've been doing it for so long they've forgotten about high risk projects that have paid off for them in the past. They all can't be cash cows but now anything other than the status quo is high risk. If it even has the slightest bit of potential to cause them to break even it won't be touched.

If you allow the parks to remain stagnant, it's harder to get people back when they leave. They will go more than twice as long between ETickets now, than they have ever done previously.

The current model of raising prices and building Dvcs to raise revenue is unsustainable at their current pace. There are only so many up charge events that people will tolerate. Look at pirates and princesses, they cancelled that party during the height of the pirate craze because it wasn't worth the charge. At what point do people stop spending $80 on an up charge event that nets you $40 of food? Especially when it's food that is already overpriced to begin with?

 

[GoofGoof]

I have to always remind myself when you rave about the Hilton, it's not that piece of garbage one at DTD, LOL. I can only imagine that place stays in business because of Priceline (the only reason I was there, and not the far nicer Grand Cypress across the street - I lost the gamble), and folks using Hilton points to stay at WDW.




They've priced folks out of the values, too - LOL. I too remember the $59 deal rates at PoP when it opened - now they want $140 for a motel room you can't even park in front of. It's insanity. Once it was over $79 a night was when I started staying off-property, even when I am there alone. Especially since the upkeep has been shameful, at least was as of the last time I was there - cracked/broken stucco everywhere, and the whole place just had a film of dirty over it. For a resort that is so new, it's like they haven't touched anything since the day it was completed.

I still say the best value in Orlando is the Motel 6 just outside the gate - it was newly refurbed too, I believe it's still like $40/night. It's literally about 90 seconds from MGM by car, and is always very clean - and really, really nice staff. I certainly wouldn't take a once-in-a-lifetime vacation there, but for a few days down by myself where I'm just going to the room to sleep? Place is amazing. When I used to have my AP, I could spend a week at Disney for $5-600 if I drove (and that includes at least a table service park meal/day). Used to do it every few months, back when they actually used to at least pretend to be adding new stuff. These days, when I do go - I prefer the Grand Cypress at DTD if I can snag it on Priceline - but I'd still stay at that Motel 6 for a day or three in between coming/going if need be.




I think it's more that the bloom is off that rose. Back in the day, horse rides, boat rentals, etc. was necessary for WDW to attract folks for a full week, or even 5 days. There just weren't enough parks. With the prices folks pay now, and the whole "pay less per day" thing - folks just don't feel like they have time for things they can do pretty much anywhere. The novelty of doing something you can do virtually anywhere (and usually better/cheaper) wears off quickly just because you add "@ Disney" to it.



Exactly. I don't buy this notion that almost anyone goes to WDW to "relax". It's kind of absurd just on the surface. You only hear such things on Disney message boards where folks say it who are DVC owners or just addicted to proximity to pixie dust. Virtually no one goes to Orlando (a land-locked swamp) for anything other than theme parks or conventions. There are far more picturesque, luxurious, relaxing places to go for a fraction of the cost. I'm not one for a beach vacation myself (I live two miles from a beach, I'm all set with that) but even if folks just want to sit poolside - doing so in the middle of Orlando, which most folks think is the armpit of Florida, for anything other than theme parks (or the aforementioned conventions) is simply not how most folks think.

I agree that not many people are likely to go to Orlando to do nothing and just relax. There are many more appealing places to do that (for me anyway). I also agree that the commando style touring of the parks is partially a product of the multi-day tickets, DDP and now FP+. That has lead to people skipping a lot of the non-park activities. When people visit they are usually trying to cram in as much as possible. My point on long time visitors vs the one time or occasional visitor is that you don't need to do everything this trip if you know you will be back soon. You can spend a little more time relaxing. You are at WDW for the parks, but it doesn't mean you can't spend some time relaxing too.

My last trip to WDW was with another family. The parents had been to WDW once many years ago and the kids were first time visitors. They had no plans of returning anytime soon. It was my first trip where I actually felt stressed about planning. They wanted to make sure they saw almost everything plus we were on DDP (never again) so we had a crazy schedule. It's much easier to have a more relaxing trip when you spend more time at the resort, plan rest days and time spent at the pool and don't run commando style through the parks. It's not about going to Orlando to stay at a DVC resort just to relax and do nothing. We generally tend to stay in a 1 or 2 bedroom villa and try to stretch it to longer than a week which also makes it more relaxing. I like to be able to put the kids to bed and have a beer or 3 on my balcony to unwind and relax at the end of the day. When I wake up in the morning I like to do the same thing but with coffee instead of beer.

I am pretty much on an every other year plan at this point for Orlando. I enjoy traveling and seeing other things too and I do enjoy a beach trip where most of the plans revolve around hanging at the beach or the pool. I'm not knocking someone who goes to WDW multiple times a year. My opinion is you should do what makes you happy. It's your vacation.

I'm not sure I'd go for the Motel 6. I think those days are probably behind me. In my younger years when I had a lot of free time but limited funds it would have been right up my alley. Now when I'm traveling with the kids and family I need a little more space to stretch out. The younger version of me would have probably called me an elitist or a snob. He spent many nights in very cheap rooms in Vegas and other places around the country

 

[GoofGoof]

If you allow the parks to remain stagnant, it's harder to get people back when they leave. They will go more than twice as long between ETickets now, than they have ever done previously.

The current model of raising prices and building Dvcs to raise revenue is unsustainable at their current pace. There are only so many up charge events that people will tolerate. Look at pirates and princesses, they cancelled that party during the height of the pirate craze because it wasn't worth the charge. At what point do people stop spending $80 on an up charge event that nets you $40 of food? Especially when it's food that is already overpriced to begin with?

The up-charge events have to lose some steam if they don't change them up. They sold the ones this summer on the idea that it was for a limited time. I've heard a lot of people say they liked it but probably wouldn't do it again. That's exactly how I felt about MVMCP. If I'm at WDW during the holidays again I would probably skip it. I wanted to experience it once and thought it was decent value because we did get 3 solid hours of rides in before the holiday stuff even started, but I wouldn't pay for it a 2nd time any time soon.

 

[Captain Chaos]

The up-charge events have to lose some steam if they don't change them up. They sold the ones this summer on the idea that it was for a limited time. I've heard a lot of people say they liked it but probably wouldn't do it again. That's exactly how I felt about MVMCP. If I'm at WDW during the holidays again I would probably skip it. I wanted to experience it once and thought it was decent value because we did get 3 solid hours of rides in before the holiday stuff even started, but I wouldn't pay for it a 2nd time any time soon.

I feel the same exact way about Not So Scary... Did it a two years in a row, I grew tired of it..

 

[Kman101]

The Christmas and Halloween parties are nice to attend the first few times but things are always the same for them year after year (or things get cut), so the appeal fades. I understand having certain things that everyone likes return year after year, but switch things up a bit. They're growing stale, IMO.

 

[AEfx]

The Christmas and Halloween parties are nice to attend the first few times but things are always the same for them year after year (or things get cut), so the appeal fades. I understand having certain things that everyone likes return year after year, but switch things up a bit. They're growing stale, IMO.

The price has been steadily increasing/offerings decreasing, as well. The ones in September are like $65, but October is like $75 with tax now. A way long way from the $42 price they used to be, I believe (and I'm sure even cheaper before that, that's just when I started going). I used to do it - five hours in the MK after dark with spooky stuff going on? Sign me up! I'd go to 3 in a week when I was there.

Now? Eh.

 

[ParentsOf4]

I gotta say, I don't think I get the Four Season's strategy here.

I've stayed at Four Seasons hotels, and they are wonderful. And the prices on the Orlando one aren't that out of reach. But I have to say, I would still choose to pay cash to stay at a monorail or Epcot resort over the Four Seasons, (as long as the rooms don't get any dingier than they already are.) There is value in location.

I dunno, I guess I don't get it. I could see the appeal for wealthy international guests who are coming to Orlando/U.S. mainly to shop versus visit the Disney parks, which perhaps are just a side attraction for them. Or maybe the FS will attract the folks who just do a VIP Tour for a day or two and be done with it.

That's true. I think it will appeal to people who aren't coming to Orlando only for the Disney parks, for whatever reason, where something else is primary. Then it's not really going to be a competitor to the Disney deluxes, unfortunately.

It appears that WDW is conceding the high-end deluxe hotel market to the Four Seasons & the Waldorf Astoria.

Guests staying in $600/night deluxe hotels have certain expectations and, frankly, the Grand Floridian and WDW's other Deluxe Resorts don't deliver. I suspect Disney has received complaints to this effect from a subset of Deluxe Resort guests.

It seems Disney has decided to focus on high margin guests willing to pay extra for the pixie dust, but who don't necessarily expect 4 or 5-star service.

To the point of this thread, this strategy has the advantage of freeing up Deluxe Resort rooms for conversion to DVC. Disney is struggling to fill its existing Deluxe Resorts at current room rates. For Disney, it's better to reduce hotel inventory through conversion so it can effectively increase Per Room Guest Spending at the rooms that remain.

Frankly, what Disney wants are guests willing to spend $600/night for the Grand Floridian because it's a Disney hotel located next to the Magic Kingdom, not because those guests expect to be provided with services typical of a $600/night hotel.

 

[WDWFanDave]

The price has been steadily increasing/offerings decreasing, as well. The ones in September are like $65, but October is like $75 with tax now. A way long way from the $42 price they used to be, I believe (and I'm sure even cheaper before that, that's just when I started going). I used to do it - five hours in the MK after dark with spooky stuff going on? Sign me up! I'd go to 3 in a week when I was there.

Now? Eh.

I have a brochure from when we went in 1996. $25 per adult. Yep, those were the days. Went last year, 3 of us (1 child), was in the $200 neighborhood, and not nearly worth it. Ended up with about $20 worth of candy, and one special M&G that we waited on (Lotso!). Might have liked it better without the pouring rain, but all in all, I couldn't see doing it again, ever.

So that this doesn't get flagged as off-topic...you mentioned the prices at Pop Century...just for the heck of it I checked out the price the week of Christmas...$200 per night. That's a new level of crazy, IMHO.

When we look at the possibility of a return trip, and check out the different accommodations, one that my DD loves the thought of is the Wilderness Lodge, where they have rooms with bunk beds (also at the FW cabins, of course). Off season and with a promo, those are hard to get for less than $250 per night, the average is much higher. Off-property I found a Marriott brand (Fairfield I believe) that offers rooms with bunk beds, the whole place seems geared to families, highly rated reviews, and for about $100 per night. To be fair, I've never stayed at either, but when the online ratings for both are about the same, there's little chance I'll ever spend the kind of money necessary to be at the WL, when I travel a mile or so off property and save $150-$200+ per night.

 

[GoofGoof]

It appears that WDW is conceding the high-end deluxe hotel market to the Four Seasons & the Waldorf Astoria.

Guests staying in $600/night deluxe hotels have certain expectations and, frankly, the Grand Floridian and WDW's other Deluxe Resorts don't deliver. I suspect Disney has received complaints to this effect from a subset of Deluxe Resort guests.

It seems Disney has decided to focus on high margin guests willing to pay extra for the pixie dust, but who don't necessarily expect 4 or 5-star service.

To the point of this thread, this strategy has the advantage of freeing up Deluxe Resort rooms for conversion to DVC. Disney is struggling to fill its existing Deluxe Resorts at current room rates. For Disney, it's better to reduce hotel inventory through conversion so it can effectively increase Per Room Guest Spending at the rooms that remain.

Frankly, what Disney wants are guests willing to spend $600/night for the Grand Floridian because it's a Disney hotel located next to the Magic Kingdom, not because those guests expect to be provided with services typical of a $600/night hotel.

I think part of the reason Disney wanted the Four Seasons there is because it will have a spa and several restaurants. It adds a level of luxury amenities to their housing development and they don't need to foot the bill. It's all about selling those houses.

They don't appear worried one bit that it will take away from the deluxe resorts. They happily announced the Four Seasons on the Disney park blog and Mickey Mouse himself was at the ground breaking. Disney seems to be very much embracing the relationship. I think you are probably dead on. Disney knows that the appeal of Grand Floridian is the location and the monorail. If that's the main thing guests want then Four Seasons won't canabalize exisitng customers. In a way it's almost adding a level above deluxe (super deluxe? Actually deluxe? We can work on the name) that will maybe attract guests who otherwise would avoid Orlando and/or WDW all together. A way to get some high end, wealthy customers to spend some money at WDW.

 

[DougK]

In a way it's almost adding a level above deluxe (super deluxe? Actually deluxe? We can work on the name) that will maybe attract guests who otherwise would avoid Orlando and/or WDW all together. A way to get some high end, wealthy customers to spend some money at WDW.

"Actually deluxe"! I love this! Now Disney can say "We have Value, Moderate and Deluxe Hotels. And for those discerning folks we have a hotel that is Actually Deluxe"!

 

[LuvtheGoof]

Maybe they'll finally move away from the Value, Moderate, Deluxe names and move towards MK Resort, EPCOT Resort, AK Resort, DTD Resort. They will then charge the same rates or higher for the "Value" or "Moderate", but people will say that they are staying in an AK Resort.

 

[Cosmic Commando]

I think part of the reason Disney wanted the Four Seasons there is because it will have a spa and several restaurants. It adds a level of luxury amenities to their housing development and they don't need to foot the bill. It's all about selling those houses.

They don't appear worried one bit that it will take away from the deluxe resorts. They happily announced the Four Seasons on the Disney park blog and Mickey Mouse himself was at the ground breaking. Disney seems to be very much embracing the relationship. I think you are probably dead on. Disney knows that the appeal of Grand Floridian is the location and the monorail. If that's the main thing guests want then Four Seasons won't canabalize exisitng customers. In a way it's almost adding a level above deluxe (super deluxe? Actually deluxe? We can work on the name) that will maybe attract guests who otherwise would avoid Orlando and/or WDW all together. A way to get some high end, wealthy customers to spend some money at WDW.

Deluxe+

 

[hpyhnt 1000]

Looking at the numbers, it appears to me that DVC is here to stay, with a steadily growing presence at WDW. Up through 2042, I suspect the number of DVC rooms will roughly double, while WDW will slowly shed some Deluxe and Moderate Resort rooms.

With the addition of VGF, there are 47M DVC points at WDW, corresponding to 3100 2-bedroom villa equivalents. The current sales pace is roughly 1.5M points per year.

VGF will sell out next year. The Poly DVC will open with something around 3M points, taking WDW into 2017.

As needed, Disney will continue to convert existing hotel rooms or build new DVC units to get them to 2042. Assuming the sales rate of ~1.5M points per year continues, that means Disney will need to create another 38M points over a 25-year period, corresponding to roughly another 2500 2-bedroom villas.

IMHO, WDW's market easily can absorb an additional 2500 units over a 25-year period, as long as Disney does a competent job of maintaining the WDW brand.

For example, the current Wilderness Lodge has 727 rooms, roughly split equally between two wings. Converting one wing to DVC should produce about 120 DVC units. Add in the rumored tepee Grand Villas and that's about another 3M points, good for another 2 years of inventory, taking WDW to 2019.

In 2042, DVC contracts begin to expire at OKW, BWV, BCV, and VWL, returning 17M points back to Disney.

17M points all at once will be too much for the market to absorb, so existing DVC members likely will be offered contract extensions. However, expect Disney to price these extensions aggressively as they will want to recapture several million points for resale.

Addressing one of the points of this thread, converting additional Wilderness Lodge rooms into DVC fits nicely into this strategy.

I've never been a big fan of math, and reading your numbers about how DVC can still be viable at the end of the decade and beyond has only made me dislike it more. Because (unfortunately) you are probably correct.

This all begs the question: at what point will they stop marketing DVC as "the best kept Disney secret?"

 

[DonaldDoleWhip]

I think part of the reason Disney wanted the Four Seasons there is because it will have a spa and several restaurants. It adds a level of luxury amenities to their housing development and they don't need to foot the bill. It's all about selling those houses.

Great point. It looks like Disney is expecting some overlap between Four Seasons guests and future Golden Oak homeowners, which is further supported by what I spotted outside the FS lobby today:

Btw, I loved strolling through the Four Seasons, and the food from Lickety Split was really good. Plus, they validate parking at all the restaurants, so valet only cost $5 plus tip. They even brought us bottles of water while we were waiting for the car! If Disney wanted to remind people how lacking the service at their deluxe resorts is, then this was a great business decision.

Then again, Disney still wins if the Four Seasons helps them sell more plots at Golden Oak...

 

[lazyboy97o]

Four Seasons and Golden Oak have always been connected with each other.

 

[Cesar R M]

I've never been a big fan of math, and reading your numbers about how DVC can still be viable at the end of the decade and beyond has only made me dislike it more. Because (unfortunately) you are probably correct.

This all begs the question: at what point will they stop marketing DVC as "the best kept Disney secret?"

until everyone has a DVC.