The Spirited 11th Hour ...

[Cesar R M]

So let me get this right, in your mind, there exists someone or some group of people who view Star Wars as a failure? WOW you are something else.

not on his mind. As I said before, I remember one of our most trusted guys posting a link. About how financial advisers and "analysts" said that The Force Awakens would be considered a "failure" for stock prices if it didn't beat Avatar worldwide.
How that the stock price was already set to have a complete sweep in records by TFA.

 

[Cesar R M]

This isn't true at all. The Force Awakens had a $200M budget, which isn't in the Top 50 most-expensive movies of all time, adjusted for inflation. There are 24 movies that have had higher budgets in the last ten years.

There are 3 movies that have made $2B in the history of cinema. $2B is not the "expectation" for a movie to be successful. Blatantly not true.

Its also blatantly not true that Wall Street considers Star Wars to be a failure.

200 million doesn't look that big compared to other blockbusters around.
Clearly shows that the director and his team KNEW what to do and make the money rinse.

The fourth Death Star will be really, really BIG!

lets be original, make it a cube..
oh wait.. Star Trek did it.. so lets go for a giant triangle!

 

[sshindel]

As indeed it was and IS considered by Wall St to be a failure, Wall St wanted it to beat avatar by a huge margin hence the mythical 3 billion dollar box office which would have returned about 1B to TWDC as most formulas return about 1/3 of box office revenue to the studio. It did not do that and with that "Failure" and ESPN's troubles Disney's stock has taken a beating ever since. Since it's TWDC the ONLY opinion which matter's is Wall St's

Could you please post a link to an article or page considering TFA as a failure? I just did a fair amount of Googling and could find no such reference, even in the bloggiest of blogs.

Unless you are speaking of course of Mr. Wall Street of Des Moines Iowa, and everyone pretty much agree's he's a crackpot. Wouldn't you be if you had been named after a famous street?

 

[the.dreamfinder]

Jennifer Lee's adaptation of "A Wrinkle in Time" just picked up Selma's Ava DuVernay as its director. This is the sort of film Disney needs to make more often.
http://birthmoviesdeath.com/2016/02/23/ava-duvernay-will-direct-a-wrinkle-in-time

 

[the.dreamfinder]

When discussing the headwinds facing Tokyo Disney Resorts ambitious expansion plans, the main concern has been that WDI delays have led to the inability to get contractors and suppliers lined up before they were all occupied by the Olympics. Here's another, which may present longer term challenges for the resort as it will need to raise money to expand its physical footprint, read landfill, in preparation for future expansion.

http://time.com/4233654/japan-economy-interest-rates
Now, the high is turning into a crash. As a recent BNP Paribas analysis put it, “Interest rates in Japan are so extremely low that further reductions will only have a marginal impact on the spending behavior of corporations.” Easy monetary policy not only in Japan, but in many other parts of the world, has had diminishing returns. In fact, negative interest rates are even starting to harm, rather than help, the Japanese economy.

As Blackrock managing director Russ Koeserick puts it, “negative rates imposed by the central bank are being seen as a tax on the banking system.” Banks simply can’t make money on deposits these days. Rather than trying to lend more to compensate, they are simply battening down the hatches and making credit less available and more expensive. That, of course, makes it harder for businesses to raise new capital, invest and grow.

EDIT: Correction in the cause of the delays. WDI was the cause, not the Oriental Land Co.
Credit @GiveMeTheMusic

 

[ford91exploder]

Could you please post a link to an article or page considering TFA as a failure? I just did a fair amount of Googling and could find no such reference, even in the bloggiest of blogs.

Unless you are speaking of course of Mr. Wall Street of Des Moines Iowa, and everyone pretty much agree's he's a crackpot. Wouldn't you be if you had been named after a famous street?

Think about this, The stock fell like a rock post TFA release supposedly because of weakness in ESPN, Now look back to Spirit's post(s) about how TFA being the 'biggest most profitable movie EVAH' was baked into the stock price. Do you think anyone is going to admit that the overheated valuation of the stock was based on unrealistic expectations for a MOVIE????, No they are going to hang it on ESPN (which I also don't think is sustainable) Look at Iger desperately telling the analyst community to chill out about TFA that tells you all you need to know about what happened.

 

[ford91exploder]

not on his mind. As I said before, I remember one of our most trusted guys posting a link. About how financial advisers and "analysts" said that The Force Awakens would be considered a "failure" for stock prices if it didn't beat Avatar worldwide.
How that the stock price was already set to have a complete sweep in records by TFA.

^^^ THIS ^^^

 

[ford91exploder]

200 million doesn't look that big compared to other blockbusters around.
Clearly shows that the director and his team KNEW what to do and make the money rinse.


lets be original, make it a cube..
oh wait.. Star Trek did it.. so lets go for a giant triangle!

Tetrahedron

 

[jakeman]

Think about this, The stock fell like a rock post TFA release supposedly because of weakness in ESPN, Now look back to Spirit's post(s) about how TFA being the 'biggest most profitable movie EVAH' was baked into the stock price. Do you think anyone is going to admit that the overheated valuation of the stock was based on unrealistic expectations for a MOVIE????, No they are going to hang it on ESPN (which I also don't think is sustainable) Look at Iger desperately telling the analyst community to chill out about TFA that tells you all you need to know about what happened.

So...no link?

 

[sshindel]

Think about this, The stock fell like a rock post TFA release supposedly because of weakness in ESPN, Now look back to Spirit's post(s) about how TFA being the 'biggest most profitable movie EVAH' was baked into the stock price. Do you think anyone is going to admit that the overheated valuation of the stock was based on unrealistic expectations for a MOVIE????, No they are going to hang it on ESPN (which I also don't think is sustainable) Look at Iger desperately telling the analyst community to chill out about TFA that tells you all you need to know about what happened.

In other words, speculation on your part of what is going on in the mind of "wall street" against the things that wall street is actually saying. Ok. Got the context in which to take the statement.

 

[sshindel]

So...no link?

It may be anecdotal, but I've found that for most cases when a statement starts with some variation of
"Think about it", or "Think about this", what comes next tends to be some form of conspiracy theory.

Think about it... How did the Egyptians know how to build the pyramids?

 

[hopemax]

This is an article from June 2015 regarding Morgan Stanley's estimates. It mentions a revision upwards, I know if they changed it again. I simply Googled Disney Star Wars Morgan Stanley (because it was the first of the Wall Street types that came to mind) and this was the first link

http://www.businessinsider.com/morgan-stanley-star-wars-box-office-estimate-195-billion-2015-6

They predicted $650 million domestic (which TFA has blown by, currently $922 million).
They predicted $1.3 Billion International (which TFA has failed to meet, current $1.1 Billion).

The title of the note they sent to clients was, "Are We Bullish Enough on Star Wars?" That seems like a tell to me, that they believe their numbers are on the low side. And later, the article goes on to say

"Morgan Stanley does, however, see a scenario in which "Star Wars" brings in $2.25 billion, with $750 million coming in domestically and $1.5 billion coming from international theaters."

So based on a 2-second Google, I would guess that Morgan Stanley is actually disappointed in the International numbers. They may be pleased with the Domestic, but since the Streetis all about the "global marketplace," I'd guess that International matters more.

EDIT: It looks like via Twitter on Dec 17, Morgan Stanley did raise their estimate to the second number https://twitter.com/ericgplatt/status/677525548445343745

So 1.1 vs 1.5 Billion is a "Miss" by 36%.

 

[GiveMeTheMusic]

When discussing the headwinds facing Tokyo Disney Resorts ambitious expansion plans, the main concern has been that Oriental Land failed to get contractors and suppliers lined up before they were all occupied by the Olympics. Here's another, which may present longer term challenges for the resort as it will need to raise money to expand its physical footprint, read landfill, in preparation for future expansion.

The delay in TDR's expansions is not due to contractors, it's due to WDI.

 

[hopemax]

This popped up too. I put it here, because of the "no one was talking $3 Billion." I don't know Nomura. Perhaps they are the ones no one listens to? Ah, I see they are out of Japan.

http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2015...on-star-wars-while-btig-says-to-fadetheforce/

"He crunches some data on ticket pre-sales and concludes that Star Wars could gross $220 million to $276 million at the domestic box office on the opening weekend, and then go on to book between $2.4 billion and $3 billion in global box office receipts."

EDIT: Then I just found this Forbes article that cites the Nomura prediction. http://www.forbes.com/sites/maggiem...for-a-3-billion-box-office-take/#45f842032e00

In that article it quotes a Goldman Sachs analyst

"Other Wall Street analysts took on a more measured tone in talking about the movie (and its potential effect on Disney’s top and bottom line).

“We now estimate global box office for Star Wars: The Force Awakens of $1.95 billion in global box office — up from $1.5 billion previously — comprised of $750 million in domestic box office and $1.2 billion internationally,” wrote Goldman Sachs analyst Drew Borst."

1.1 vs 1.95 Billion is a Miss of 77%.

Also in that article, one of the Bullish analysts, BTIG's, Rich Greenfield said:

"Using the hashtag #FadetheForce, Greenfield noted that should The Force Awakensfail to gross more than $2 billion in worldwide box office revenue, Disney will fail to meet his and the Street’s estimates on earnings."

TFA is currently at $2,040,854,468

 

[DisDan]

This popped up too. I put it here, because of the "no one was talking $3 Billion." I don't know Nomura. Perhaps they are the ones no one listens to? Ah, I see they are out of Japan.

http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2015...on-star-wars-while-btig-says-to-fadetheforce/

"He crunches some data on ticket pre-sales and concludes that Star Wars could gross $220 million to $276 million at the domestic box office on the opening weekend, and then go on to book between $2.4 billion and $3 billion in global box office receipts."

EDIT: Then I just found this Forbes article that cites the Nomura prediction. http://www.forbes.com/sites/maggiem...for-a-3-billion-box-office-take/#45f842032e00

In that article it quotes a Goldman Sachs analyst

"Other Wall Street analysts took on a more measured tone in talking about the movie (and its potential effect on Disney’s top and bottom line).

“We now estimate global box office for Star Wars: The Force Awakens of $1.95 billion in global box office — up from $1.5 billion previously — comprised of $750 million in domestic box office and $1.2 billion internationally,” wrote Goldman Sachs analyst Drew Borst."

1.1 vs 1.95 Billion is a Miss of 77%.

Also in that article, one of the Bullish analysts, BTIG's, Rich Greenfield said:

"Using the hashtag #FadetheForce, Greenfield noted that should The Force Awakensfail to gross more than $2 billion in worldwide box office revenue, Disney will fail to meet his and the Street’s estimates on earnings."

TFA is currently at $2,040,854,468

You compared the wrong numbers from that estimate it should have been 1.1 vs 1.2

 

[hopemax]

You compared the wrong numbers from that estimate it should have been 1.1 vs 1.2

Mea culpa

 

[ford91exploder]

In other words, speculation on your part of what is going on in the mind of "wall street" against the things that wall street is actually saying. Ok. Got the context in which to take the statement.

Take a look at Nomura securities predictions on TFA @hopemax just posted links to the articles in question, People seem to think I keep a notebook of every 'anti' disney article

 

[Quinnmac000]

If Rian Johnson puts in what he has hinted at on twitter, I can guarantee EP VIII won't do well even though I have no problem with it.

 

[Mike S]

If Rian Johnson puts in what he has hinted at on twitter, I can guarantee EP VIII won't do well even though I have no problem with it.

What was it?

 

[Quinnmac000]

What was it?

Spoiler

Poe/Finn in a romantic relationship https://twitter.com/rianjohnson/status/687503266121297924