The Official Hurricane Ivan thread...

[tigger248]

From that latest satellite update...Jamaica is getting hammered. God help them!

My thoughts and prayers definitely go out to everyone in Ivan's path! The satellite looks really bad for Jamaica and the rest of the Caribbean. I had a roomate on my cp who was from the Cayman's. Looking at that satellite makes me wonder how she is doing and makes me hope that she still has a home in a few hours.

 

[cherrynegra]

Hurricanes are no fun. Period. But there's something about riding out a severe one on an island that really makes it hellish. I remember when we used to get hit in the Pacific. There's nowhere to run and it's all about praying for the roof to remain on the house.

 

[Goofy23]

Thanks for the updates Corrus. God help FL. We leave tomorrow and we're still going. Let's hope Ivan goes further west than this....

 

[Tramp]

My thoughts and prayers definitely go out to everyone in Ivan's path! The satellite looks really bad for Jamaica and the rest of the Caribbean. I had a roomate on my cp who was from the Cayman's. Looking at that satellite makes me wonder how she is doing and makes me hope that she still has a home in a few hours.

It's VERY nerve-wracking on an island when one of these monsters comes along. I was in St. Maartin in the late 70s when DAVID came along and obliterated the island and, of course, my vacation. And, it missed the island by 60 miles. There's no place to hide when you're that close to sea level.

A week after I left the island, FREDERICK made a direct hit and the storm surge took half the hotel I had stayed in. Close one!

 

[Nicole]

I wonder how many posts there are here complaining about the "information" posts and arguing about whether or not they should continue :lol:


Seriously, how many?

Interesting point! You'd have to add in the Frances and Charley threads though too!! Although I can see how some people not directly impacted by the storm might not be as interested in the maps, updates, etc. Maybe we should have one thread for discussing the hurricane and one thread for "official" type updates. Like "the official Hurricane Ivan chit chat thread"?? Just an idea.

I do find it interesting that the graphics posted here tend to be so much better than anything on the mainstream weather sites I've looked at! Thanks guys!

 

[tigger248]

Thanks for the updates Corrus. God help FL. We leave tomorrow and we're still going. Let's hope Ivan goes further west than this....

That image looks like we may get some hurricane remnant rain here. Tiggers don't like rain! :lol:

We were supposed to get Frances's remnants but it went a little east. We got wind, clouds, and refreshingly cool air in the mid 70's. Just a little east of here (like where I used to go to school) they had a lot of rain.

Still hoping that this monster turns and goes back out to the ocean to fizzle out and die.

 

[tigger248]

I have a little good news to add too. I just read that the state of Kentucky is sending down food to the hurricane victims. They're sending it to the shelters to help the victims of Frances, but with Ivan bearing down, some will probably help Ivan victims too. It's not much, but at least it's helping a little.

 

[Figment1986]

How accurate is this update... cause the last two vered it off of Tampa... and some have it hitting Tampa... When will we be more sure at what is happening...

(I dont want this to hit.. marching season is getting messed up for alot of FLA...)

 

[wannab@dis]

That image looks like we may get some hurricane remnant rain here. Tiggers don't like rain! :lol:

We were supposed to get Frances's remnants but it went a little east. We got wind, clouds, and refreshingly cool air in the mid 70's. Just a little east of here (like where I used to go to school) they had a lot of rain.

Still hoping that this monster turns and goes back out to the ocean to fizzle out and die.

I'm in East TN and we got hit with the rain and some wind from Frances. Had a lot of flooding and several rescues had to be done.

pictures of flooding

 

[Mary Poppins]

I found this interesting...the comparison between this season and the last time three hurricanes hit Florida.

Also, this information about the strongest area of a hurricane.

 

[Main Street USA]

(I dont want this to hit.. marching season is getting messed up for alot of FLA...)

What in the world is marching season?

I'm hoping you don't mean marching season, as in "band" marching, because that's probably about second to LAST on "FLA's" list of things to care about.

 

[FamilyMan]

I see this hurricane as aiming much farther west into the gulf, and then it will hit the low pressure front and make a right turn rather quickly...

That's my official guess. Now, let me go see if Grizz has room for me in his cave...

 

[TashaSW]

Hi All.

Im still new around here but Ive been lurking for a couple of weeks now.
I love all the updates and stuff on the disney parks. The hurricane updates here is great too. Florida (Orlando, St Petes Beach and once in awhile Captiva Island) is like a second home to my family and I.

To people who complain about posts having to many pages, theres nothing wrong with many pages posts... sometimes if i don;t wnat to read the WHOLE thread, I will read the first couple of pages then click on the "LAST PAGE" button and scan the last couple of pages.
I may go through a whole thread if i wanted to know what someone was talking about that refered to another post on another page.

3 Hurricanes in a row... I saw on YAHOO NEWS that this is the first time there have been 3 hurricanes in a row since 1964 (or 1963) Pretty scary.
Effects of Hurricane Francs is going on in Southern Ontario, Canada. The city I used to live in is getting a lot more rain than it ever did, the next city over is flooded :-( (We moved ot BC Canada a few years ago)

KEEP UP THE HURRICANE UPDATES!! I actually larned a lot more about the hurricanes (charley, frances and Ivan) a lot more on these boards than i do by watching the news or read the paper. (or online news sites)

Take Care everyone!!
Tasha

 

[PhotoDave219]

I found this interesting...the comparison between this season and the last time three hurricanes hit Florida.

And this info about the worst point of a hurricane.

Thanks Much.... very informative.

Now if only Ivan bares a tad more to the left....

 

[Mr D]

000
Wtnt34 Knhc 110855
Tcpat4
Bulletin
Hurricane Ivan Advisory Number 36
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl
5 Am Edt Sat Sep 11 2004

...eye Of Ivan Passing Just South Of Jamaica...

A Hurricane Warning Remains In Effect For Jamaica And The Cayman
Islands.

A Hurricane Watch Remains In Effect For Cuba Including The Isle Of
Youth.

At 5 Am Edt...0900z...the Government Of Cuba Has Extended The
Tropical Storm Warning From Cabo Cruz To Cienfuegos. Tropical
Storm Warnings Are Now In Effect For The South Coast Of Cuba From
Satiago De Cuba To Cienfuegos.

At 5 Am Edt...0900z...the Hurricane Watch And Tropical Storm Warning
Is Discontinued For Haiti And The Dominican Republic.

Interests In The Northwestern Caribbean Sea...as Well As In The
Eastern Gulf Of Mexico...should Closely Monitor The Progress Of
Dangerous Hurricane Ivan.

At 5 Am Edt...0900z...the Center Of Hurricane Ivan Was Located Near
Latitude 17.5 North...longitude 78.0 West. This Position Is Just
South Of The Island Of Jamaica And About 70 Miles... 110 Km...south
Of Montego Bay Jamaica.

After A Wobble Toward The West...ivan Is Expected To Move Toward The
West-northwest Or Northwest Near 8 Mph...13 Km/hr. On This
Track...ivan Should Move Near The Cayman Islands In About 24 Hours.

Maximum Sustained Winds Are Near 150 Mph...240 Km/hr...with Higher
Gusts. Some Fluctuations In Strength Are Expected...but Ivan Could
Become Stronger During The Next 24 Hours.

Hurricane Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 45 Miles... 75 Km...
From The Center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Outward Up
To 175 Miles...280 Km.

Estimated Minimum Central Pressure Is 923 Mb...27.26 Inches.

Storm Surge Flooding Of 5 To 8 Feet Above Normal Tide Levels...
Along With Large And Dangerous Battering Waves Are Occurring
Primarily Along The South Coast Of Jamaica.

Rainfall Amounts Of 8 To 12 Inches...possibly Causing Life-
Threatening Flash Floods And Mud Slides...can Be Expected Along The
Path Of Ivan.

Repeating The 5 Am Edt Position...17.5 N... 78.0 W. Movement
Toward...west-northwest Near 10 Mph. Maximum Sustained
Winds...150 Mph. Minimum Central Pressure... 923 Mb.

For Storm Information Specific To Your Area...please Monitor
Products Issued By Your Local Weather Office.

An Intermediate Advisory Will Be Issued By The National
Hurricane Center At 8 Am Edt Followed By The Next
Complete Advisory At 11 Am Edt.

Forecaster Lawrence

 

[Mr D]

Wtnt24 Knhc 110840
Tcmat4
Hurricane Ivan Forecast/advisory Number 36
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl Al092004
0900z Sat Sep 11 2004

A Hurricane Warning Remains In Effect For Jamaica And The Cayman
Islands.

A Hurricane Watch Remains In Effect For Cuba Including The Isle Of
Youth.

At 5 Am Edt...0900z...the Government Of Cuba Has Extended The
Tropical Storm Warning From Cabo Cruz To Cienfuegos. Tropical
Storm Warnings Are Now In Effect For The South Coast Of Cuba From
Satiago De Cuba To Cienfuegos.

At 5 Am Edt...0900z...the Hurricane Watch And Tropical Storm Warning
Is Discontinued For Haiti And The Dominican Republic.

Interests In The Northwestern Caribbean Sea...as Well As In The
Eastern Gulf Of Mexico...should Closely Monitor The Progress Of
Dangerous Hurricane Ivan.

Hurricane Center Located Near 17.5n 78.0w At 11/0900z
Position Accurate Within 10 Nm

Present Movement Toward The West-northwest Or 300 Degrees At 9 Kt

Estimated Minimum Central Pressure 923 Mb
Max Sustained Winds 130 Kt With Gusts To 160 Kt.
64 Kt....... 40ne 30se 30sw 40nw.
50 Kt....... 60ne 60se 60sw 60nw.
34 Kt.......150ne 100se 100sw 150nw.
12 Ft Seas..360ne 180se 180sw 200nw.
Winds And Seas Vary Greatly In Each Quadrant. Radii In Nautical
Miles Are The Largest Radii Expected Anywhere In That Quadrant.

Repeat...center Located Near 17.5n 78.0w At 11/0900z
At 11/0600z Center Was Located Near 17.4n 77.6w

Forecast Valid 11/1800z 18.3n 79.0w
Max Wind 135 Kt...gusts 165 Kt.
64 Kt... 40ne 30se 30sw 40nw.
50 Kt... 60ne 60se 60sw 60nw.
34 Kt...150ne 100se 100sw 150nw.

Forecast Valid 12/0600z 19.3n 80.1w
Max Wind 140 Kt...gusts 170 Kt.
64 Kt... 40ne 30se 30sw 40nw.
50 Kt... 60ne 60se 60sw 60nw.
34 Kt...150ne 100se 100sw 150nw.

Forecast Valid 12/1800z 20.6n 81.4w
Max Wind 140 Kt...gusts 170 Kt.
64 Kt... 40ne 30se 30sw 40nw.
50 Kt... 60ne 60se 60sw 60nw.
34 Kt...150ne 100se 100sw 150nw.

Forecast Valid 13/0600z 22.0n 82.5w
Max Wind 140 Kt...gusts 170 Kt.
50 Kt... 60ne 60se 60sw 60nw.
34 Kt...150ne 100se 100sw 150nw.

Forecast Valid 14/0600z 25.9n 83.8w
Max Wind 115 Kt...gusts 140 Kt.
50 Kt... 60ne 60se 60sw 60nw.
34 Kt...150ne 100se 100sw 150nw.

Extended Outlook. Note...errors For Track Have Averaged Near 250 Nm
On Day 4 And 325 Nm On Day 5...and For Intensity Near 20 Kt Each Day

Outlook Valid 15/0600z 30.5n 84.0w...inland
Max Wind 90 Kt...gusts 110 Kt.

Outlook Valid 16/0600z 36.0n 83.0w...inland
Max Wind 30 Kt...gusts 40 Kt.

Request For 3 Hourly Ship Reports Within 300 Miles Of 17.5n 78.0w

Next Advisory At 11/1500z

Forecaster Lawrence

 

[Mr D]

000
Wtnt44 Knhc 110844
Tcdat4
Hurricane Ivan Discussion Number 36
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl
5 Am Edt Sat Sep 11 2004

A U.s. Air Force Reserve Unit Aircraft Is Currently Flying In The
Hurricane. The Central Pressuure Is 924 Mb And Flight Level Winds
Support 125 Kt Surface Winds. However The Hurricane Is Undergoing
An Eyewall Replacement Cycle And May Soon Be Intensifying And The
Initial Wind Speed Is Set At 130 Kt. With Light Vertical Shear And
Warm Ssts...conditions Appear Favorable For Strenghening For The
Next Day Or Two As Ivan Threatens The Cayman Islands And Then Cuba.

The Eye Took A Westward Wobble Overnight And Remained Far Enough
South Of Jamaica So That The Strongest Winds Are Believed To Have
Remained Offshore. Nevertheless...jamaica Experienced Hurricane
Force Winds And Is Still Doing So.

The Guidance Continues To Show The Same Forecast Scenario Of A Turn
Toward The Northwest And Then North Through A Weakness In The
Subtropical Ridge. The Runs Of The Four Global Track Guidance
Models...gfs...gfdl...ukmet...nogaps...all Shifted Their Track A
Little To The Left. Some Or All Of The Shift Could Be Due To The
Short Term Westward Wobble. The Official Track Forecast Is
Adjusted A Little Left Of The Previous Advisory But Is Still To The
Right Or East Of All The Models Through 48 Hours And Then Is Closer
To A Consensus Of The Models After 48 Hours. The Guidance Models
Indicate A Decrease In Forward Speed For The Next Day Or So And So
Does The Official Forecast.

Forecaster Lawrence

Forecast Positions And Max Winds

Initial 11/0900z 17.5n 78.0w 130 Kt
12hr Vt 11/1800z 18.3n 79.0w 135 Kt
24hr Vt 12/0600z 19.3n 80.1w 140 Kt
36hr Vt 12/1800z 20.6n 81.4w 140 Kt
48hr Vt 13/0600z 22.0n 82.5w 140 Kt
72hr Vt 14/0600z 25.9n 83.8w 115 Kt
96hr Vt 15/0600z 30.5n 84.0w 90 Kt...inland
120hr Vt 16/0600z 36.0n 83.0w 30 Kt...inland

 

[Mr D]

 

[Mr D]

 

[Tim G]

<TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=2 width="98%" border=1><TBODY><TR><TD bgColor=#ff0000><TABLE width="100%"><TBODY><TR><TD class=large>STORM STATUS</TD><TD class=small align=right>September 11, 7:34 AM EDT</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR><TR><TD bgColor=#cccccc><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=2 width="95%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD colSpan=2>Name: Hurricane Ivan</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small vAlign=top>Location: . This position is just south of the western tip of jamaica or about 60 miles, 95 km, South of Montego Bay Jamaica.
Lat/Long: 17.7N, 78.4W
Max Winds: 150 mph
Category: 4
</TD><TD class=small vAlign=top noWrap>Heading: West-Northwest
Speed: 10 mph
Pressure: 27.26 inches
</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small align=middle colSpan=2></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>Hurricane Ivan Intermediate Advisory Number 36a

Issued at: 7:34 AM EDT 9/11/04

Eye of dangerous hurricane ivan just offshore the southwest coast of jamaica, heading for the cayman islands,

A hurricane warning remains in effect for jamaica and the cayman islands.
A hurricane watch remains in effect for cuba including the isle of youth.
A tropical storm warning is in effect for cuba from cabo cruz to cienfuegos.

Interests in the northwestern caribbean sea, as well as in the eastern gulf of mexico, should closely monitor the progress of dangerous hurricane ivan.

At 8 am edt, 1200z, the eye of hurricane ivan was located near latitude 17.7 north, longitude 78.4 west. This position is just south of the western tip of jamaica or about 60 miles, 95 km, south of montego bay jamaica.
Ivan is moving toward the west-northwest track near 8 mph, 13 km/hr. On this track, ivan should move near the cayman islands in about 24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 150 mph, 240 km/hr, with higher gusts. Some fluctuations in strength are expected, but ivan could become stronger during the next 24 hours.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 45 miles, 75 km, from the center, and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175 miles, 280 km.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 923 mb, 27.26 inches.
Storm surge flooding of 5 to 8 feet above normal tide levels, along with large and dangerous battering waves are occurring primarily along the south coast of jamaica.

Rainfall amounts of 8 to 12 inches, possibly causing life- threatening flash floods and mud slides, can be expected along the path of ivan.
Repeating the 8 am edt position, 17.7 n, 78.4 w. Movement toward, west-northwest near 10 mph. Maximum sustained winds, 150 mph. Minimum central pressure, 923 mb.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your local weather office.

The next advisory will be issued by the national hurricane center at 11 am edt.