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The Official Hurricane Ivan thread...
- Thread starter FamilyMan
- Start date
Tim G
Well-Known Member
Ivan kills 32, bears down on Jamaica
Associated Press, September 10, 2004, 2:10 PM EDT
KINGSTON, JAMAICA -- Hurricane Ivan's deadly winds and monstrous waves bore down on Jamaica today, threatening a direct hit on its densely populated capital after ravaging Grenada and killing at least 32 people.
The Jamaican government ordered half a million people from coastal areas, where rains on Ivan's outer edges were already flooding roads.
In its wake, Ivan left Grenada a wasteland of flattened houses, twisted metal and splintered wood and sparked a frenzy of looting. Authorities found nine more dead in Grenada -- including two foreign yachters -- raising Ivan's death toll across the region to 32.
The Category 4 hurricane -- out of a top scale of five -- packed winds of 145 mph and could strengthen before its core nears Jamaica tonight or early Saturday, meteorologists said. They warned of "life-threatening'' flash floods and mudslides.
U.S. officials ordered people to evacuate from the Florida Keys after forecasters said the storm -- the fourth major hurricane of the Atlantic season -- could hit the island chain by Sunday after passing the Cayman Islands and crossing Cuba. It was the third evacuation in Florida in a month, following Hurricane Charley and Hurricane Frances.
The storm's current path would take it directly over Kingston, Jamaica's sprawling capital of 1 million people in the southeast, and smash across the island to exit around Montego Bay in the northwest.
Friday morning, the storm's leading edge was kicking up heavy rain and winds off Jamaica's eastern tip and as far away as Montego Bay, where stranded tourists crowded the airport and armed private guards began patrolling against looters.
Driving rains in Montego Bay flooded roads with up to a foot of water. A large storm surge also flooded roads in eastern Jamaica.
The onslaught was expected to impede the evacuation -- of one in five Jamaicans, some of whom are refusing to abandon their homes, Power 106 radio reported.
In nearby Haiti today, the storm's leading edge forced piles of sand and water up to knee-high into seaside neighborhoods of Les Cayes, a city of 300,000 on the southwest pensinsula. Hundreds of residents sheltered in schools and churches.
Cuba declared a hurricane watch across the entire island today, after its leader, Fidel Castro, went on national television the night before warning residents to brace themselves. "Whatever the hurricane does, we will all work together'' to rebuild, he said.
At 2 p.m., Ivan's eye was about 85 miles south-southeast of Kingston, moving west-northwest at about 12 mph. Hurricane-force winds extended 60 miles, while tropical storm-force winds stretched 175 miles.
In Grenada, an island of 100,000 people that was the hardest hit by the storm so far, authorities tried to get a handle on the extend of the death and destruction, but efforts were hampered by blocked roads, landslides and a lack of telephone service, said Police Commissioner Fitzroy Bedeau.
At least 22 people were killed in Grenada, Bedeau told the AP, including the drowned yachters, whose nationalities he did not know, people trapped in collapsed homes and a few elderly people who apparently died of shock.
"In another couple of days we may have better knowledge,'' of the number of deaths, he said. The U.S. Peace Corps was searching for three volunteers unaccounted for since the storm, the U.S. Embassy in Barbados said.
Ivan also killed one person in Tobago, four in Venezuela, one Canadian woman in Barbados, and four youngsters in the Dominican Republic who were swept away by a giant wave Thursday even though the storm was nearly 200 miles away.
"The destruction is worse than I've ever seen,'' said Michael Steele, a 34-year-old Grenada resident whose home was destroyed. ``We're left with nothing.''
House after house in the capital of St. George's was shredded by whipping winds. Stadium awnings collapsed, church roofs caved in and many trees snapped. Those left standing were stripped of leaves, giving a brownish tinge to debris-strewn hills overlooking the Caribbean Sea.
Associated Press, September 10, 2004, 2:10 PM EDT
KINGSTON, JAMAICA -- Hurricane Ivan's deadly winds and monstrous waves bore down on Jamaica today, threatening a direct hit on its densely populated capital after ravaging Grenada and killing at least 32 people.
The Jamaican government ordered half a million people from coastal areas, where rains on Ivan's outer edges were already flooding roads.
In its wake, Ivan left Grenada a wasteland of flattened houses, twisted metal and splintered wood and sparked a frenzy of looting. Authorities found nine more dead in Grenada -- including two foreign yachters -- raising Ivan's death toll across the region to 32.
The Category 4 hurricane -- out of a top scale of five -- packed winds of 145 mph and could strengthen before its core nears Jamaica tonight or early Saturday, meteorologists said. They warned of "life-threatening'' flash floods and mudslides.
U.S. officials ordered people to evacuate from the Florida Keys after forecasters said the storm -- the fourth major hurricane of the Atlantic season -- could hit the island chain by Sunday after passing the Cayman Islands and crossing Cuba. It was the third evacuation in Florida in a month, following Hurricane Charley and Hurricane Frances.
The storm's current path would take it directly over Kingston, Jamaica's sprawling capital of 1 million people in the southeast, and smash across the island to exit around Montego Bay in the northwest.
Friday morning, the storm's leading edge was kicking up heavy rain and winds off Jamaica's eastern tip and as far away as Montego Bay, where stranded tourists crowded the airport and armed private guards began patrolling against looters.
Driving rains in Montego Bay flooded roads with up to a foot of water. A large storm surge also flooded roads in eastern Jamaica.
The onslaught was expected to impede the evacuation -- of one in five Jamaicans, some of whom are refusing to abandon their homes, Power 106 radio reported.
In nearby Haiti today, the storm's leading edge forced piles of sand and water up to knee-high into seaside neighborhoods of Les Cayes, a city of 300,000 on the southwest pensinsula. Hundreds of residents sheltered in schools and churches.
Cuba declared a hurricane watch across the entire island today, after its leader, Fidel Castro, went on national television the night before warning residents to brace themselves. "Whatever the hurricane does, we will all work together'' to rebuild, he said.
At 2 p.m., Ivan's eye was about 85 miles south-southeast of Kingston, moving west-northwest at about 12 mph. Hurricane-force winds extended 60 miles, while tropical storm-force winds stretched 175 miles.
In Grenada, an island of 100,000 people that was the hardest hit by the storm so far, authorities tried to get a handle on the extend of the death and destruction, but efforts were hampered by blocked roads, landslides and a lack of telephone service, said Police Commissioner Fitzroy Bedeau.
At least 22 people were killed in Grenada, Bedeau told the AP, including the drowned yachters, whose nationalities he did not know, people trapped in collapsed homes and a few elderly people who apparently died of shock.
"In another couple of days we may have better knowledge,'' of the number of deaths, he said. The U.S. Peace Corps was searching for three volunteers unaccounted for since the storm, the U.S. Embassy in Barbados said.
Ivan also killed one person in Tobago, four in Venezuela, one Canadian woman in Barbados, and four youngsters in the Dominican Republic who were swept away by a giant wave Thursday even though the storm was nearly 200 miles away.
"The destruction is worse than I've ever seen,'' said Michael Steele, a 34-year-old Grenada resident whose home was destroyed. ``We're left with nothing.''
House after house in the capital of St. George's was shredded by whipping winds. Stadium awnings collapsed, church roofs caved in and many trees snapped. Those left standing were stripped of leaves, giving a brownish tinge to debris-strewn hills overlooking the Caribbean Sea.
PhotoDave219
Well-Known Member
!Turn you ______________, Turn! Go to Mexico!
(thought that needed to be said)
(thought that needed to be said)
WDWScottieBoy
Well-Known Member
PhotoDave219 said:
Atta83 said:
Aww....I can feel the love in that relationship! :lol: :wave:
How about Ivan just stays in one spot in the ocean where it can't hurt anyone and won't touch land anymore...or better yet, just LEAVE!
PhotoDave219
Well-Known Member
I was talking to the hurricane, not my girlfriend....
wannab@dis
Well-Known Member
Man... considering those tracks... the odds are 5 out of 8 hitting FL. geez, that sucks.
626
Member
Hey Ivan, you see that one track that is going off towards Mexico? Wouldn't you rather take that? Think about it! I know everyone wants to go to Disney World, but it's kinda trashed right now thanks to your buddies Charlie and Frances. Why not go to Mexico instead? I'm sure you'd enjoy it much more!
Do you think he bought it?? :lookaroun
Do you think he bought it?? :lookaroun
Tim G
Well-Known Member
Predicting Ivan's course remains inexact science
September 10, 2004
Where will Hurricane Ivan come ashore?
Supercomputers in facilities from Florida to Maryland to California have been trying to answer that question for days. Programmed with decades of hurricane history, updated with wind speed and barometric pressure and humidity from dozens of satellites, buoys and airplane-dropped sensors, they whir and process for an hour or more to produce -- on Thursday, at least -- this answer:
Anywhere from Louisiana on the west to Savannah, Ga., on the east. And maybe not there.
So when the humans at the National Hurricane Center produced a forecast track early Thursday showing Ivan coming through Orlando early next week, they also acknowledged that no one can say for sure when or where the storm will hit.
Orlando, the center said, at that time represented the middle course of a dozen or more computer models that show Ivan following paths west and east of Florida, as well as right up the spine of the state. But trying to predict the course of any hurricane five days out is beyond a supercomputer's abilities; even three-day forecasts can be hugely wrong, as Hurricane Charley showed last month.
Said hurricane-center meteorologist Gene Hafele, "The further you get out into time [before landfall], the more the uncertainty." Two of the biggest factors influencing the possible path of Ivan are a storm heading east through the Rocky Mountains and a high-pressure system in the Atlantic known as the Bermuda high, which typically is in place during the summer and early fall months.
If the storm moves the Bermuda high out into the Atlantic or weakens it, Ivan could head right into Florida and possibly to Orlando. If the Bermuda high strengthens or rebounds from the storm, Ivan could go west into the Gulf of Mexico. There is no agreement yet on what will happen, though the computers are "trending" toward the Bermuda high's staving off the storm.
"This is the stuff people spend decades and decades trying to understand," said Josh Darr, a meteorologist with Risk Management Solutions in California, a company that helps insurance companies forecast potential losses in a natural disaster such as a hurricane.
With tropical-storm-force winds extending 175 miles from its eye, Ivan was headed north-northwest Thursday night. Earlier, its top winds were 160 mph, though it was expected to weaken after crossing Jamaica and, quite possibly, Cuba.
After that, the computers disagree on what happens next.
The reason: Forecasting is an inexact science that -- while growing in sophistication -- cannot take into account the myriad atmospheric factors that eventually determine the course of a storm.
Anything from the temperature of the water to a shifting high- or low-pressure system to wind shears to a hurricane's forward speed can alter the track and intensity of a storm.
The computer models, most fed with data from hurricanes as far back as 1900, try to consider countless nuances in producing a potential course. That's why they can change several times a day, whenever a new set of programs is run.
Although hundreds of hurricane-tracking programs are available or in development, the National Hurricane Center typically pays most attention to five models. They are called NOGAPS, AVN, BAM, UKMET and GFDL.
On Thursday, their plots showed Ivan could head as far west as Louisiana -- or as far east as the open Atlantic. These, and a few others, were averaged to produce a "consensus" track that showed Ivan passing near Orlando but later revised to show it passing west of Tampa.
"It's always better to have several opinions rather than just one," said Pete Dailey, a meteorologist and manager of atmospheric science for AIR Worldwide Corp., a risk-modeling agency in Boston.
Two of the most respected models are NOGAPS, produced by the U.S. Navy, and GFDL, created by a government-funded laboratory at Princeton University and run on National Weather Service supercomputers in Maryland.
Morris Bender, a research meteorologist at Princeton and a developer of the GFDL, said the model solves complex mathematical equations involving fluid dynamics to predict Earth's ever-changing environment.
"It's called a model because it's an approximation of the behavior of the atmosphere," Bender said of the GFDL, which stands for Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory and was developed in the 1970s. "You're trying to reproduce what the storm is doing, but much faster. The atmosphere is complicated, and nobody's model is perfect."
The GFDL prediction Thursday: Ivan would make landfall in Florida sometime Tuesday near Tampa.
NOGAPS, which stands for Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System, uses wind, temperature, humidity, barometric pressure and other atmospheric-profile data gathered worldwide by satellites, ships at sea, weather buoys, weather balloons, military and commercial aircraft. It's all crunched by a supercomputer in Monterey, Calif.
The NOGAPS prediction: Ivan would make landfall Tuesday somewhere west of Tallahassee.
"Different models make different assumptions, on how they form clouds, the convective energy in thunderstorms, how radiation is absorbed into the atmosphere. So the models will behave differently," explained Mike Clancy, chief scientist for the Navy's Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center.
"We don't understand the exact physics of the atmosphere," he added.That's no surprise to John Williams, a veteran Florida meteorologist and co-author of a book about Florida hurricanes and tropical storms.
"Babies like these," Williams said of Ivan, "have a mind of their own. They do what they want."
September 10, 2004
Where will Hurricane Ivan come ashore?
Supercomputers in facilities from Florida to Maryland to California have been trying to answer that question for days. Programmed with decades of hurricane history, updated with wind speed and barometric pressure and humidity from dozens of satellites, buoys and airplane-dropped sensors, they whir and process for an hour or more to produce -- on Thursday, at least -- this answer:
Anywhere from Louisiana on the west to Savannah, Ga., on the east. And maybe not there.
So when the humans at the National Hurricane Center produced a forecast track early Thursday showing Ivan coming through Orlando early next week, they also acknowledged that no one can say for sure when or where the storm will hit.
Orlando, the center said, at that time represented the middle course of a dozen or more computer models that show Ivan following paths west and east of Florida, as well as right up the spine of the state. But trying to predict the course of any hurricane five days out is beyond a supercomputer's abilities; even three-day forecasts can be hugely wrong, as Hurricane Charley showed last month.
Said hurricane-center meteorologist Gene Hafele, "The further you get out into time [before landfall], the more the uncertainty." Two of the biggest factors influencing the possible path of Ivan are a storm heading east through the Rocky Mountains and a high-pressure system in the Atlantic known as the Bermuda high, which typically is in place during the summer and early fall months.
If the storm moves the Bermuda high out into the Atlantic or weakens it, Ivan could head right into Florida and possibly to Orlando. If the Bermuda high strengthens or rebounds from the storm, Ivan could go west into the Gulf of Mexico. There is no agreement yet on what will happen, though the computers are "trending" toward the Bermuda high's staving off the storm.
"This is the stuff people spend decades and decades trying to understand," said Josh Darr, a meteorologist with Risk Management Solutions in California, a company that helps insurance companies forecast potential losses in a natural disaster such as a hurricane.
With tropical-storm-force winds extending 175 miles from its eye, Ivan was headed north-northwest Thursday night. Earlier, its top winds were 160 mph, though it was expected to weaken after crossing Jamaica and, quite possibly, Cuba.
After that, the computers disagree on what happens next.
The reason: Forecasting is an inexact science that -- while growing in sophistication -- cannot take into account the myriad atmospheric factors that eventually determine the course of a storm.
Anything from the temperature of the water to a shifting high- or low-pressure system to wind shears to a hurricane's forward speed can alter the track and intensity of a storm.
The computer models, most fed with data from hurricanes as far back as 1900, try to consider countless nuances in producing a potential course. That's why they can change several times a day, whenever a new set of programs is run.
Although hundreds of hurricane-tracking programs are available or in development, the National Hurricane Center typically pays most attention to five models. They are called NOGAPS, AVN, BAM, UKMET and GFDL.
On Thursday, their plots showed Ivan could head as far west as Louisiana -- or as far east as the open Atlantic. These, and a few others, were averaged to produce a "consensus" track that showed Ivan passing near Orlando but later revised to show it passing west of Tampa.
"It's always better to have several opinions rather than just one," said Pete Dailey, a meteorologist and manager of atmospheric science for AIR Worldwide Corp., a risk-modeling agency in Boston.
Two of the most respected models are NOGAPS, produced by the U.S. Navy, and GFDL, created by a government-funded laboratory at Princeton University and run on National Weather Service supercomputers in Maryland.
Morris Bender, a research meteorologist at Princeton and a developer of the GFDL, said the model solves complex mathematical equations involving fluid dynamics to predict Earth's ever-changing environment.
"It's called a model because it's an approximation of the behavior of the atmosphere," Bender said of the GFDL, which stands for Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory and was developed in the 1970s. "You're trying to reproduce what the storm is doing, but much faster. The atmosphere is complicated, and nobody's model is perfect."
The GFDL prediction Thursday: Ivan would make landfall in Florida sometime Tuesday near Tampa.
NOGAPS, which stands for Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System, uses wind, temperature, humidity, barometric pressure and other atmospheric-profile data gathered worldwide by satellites, ships at sea, weather buoys, weather balloons, military and commercial aircraft. It's all crunched by a supercomputer in Monterey, Calif.
The NOGAPS prediction: Ivan would make landfall Tuesday somewhere west of Tallahassee.
"Different models make different assumptions, on how they form clouds, the convective energy in thunderstorms, how radiation is absorbed into the atmosphere. So the models will behave differently," explained Mike Clancy, chief scientist for the Navy's Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center.
"We don't understand the exact physics of the atmosphere," he added.That's no surprise to John Williams, a veteran Florida meteorologist and co-author of a book about Florida hurricanes and tropical storms.
"Babies like these," Williams said of Ivan, "have a mind of their own. They do what they want."
kevmagkingdom
Account Suspended
I'm sure to get negative rep for this. But don't you think watching the news, weather channel, newspaper etc is a better way then to post long, long articles? Just be aware in your home not on these threads, IMO.
Flame at will...
Flame at will...