The Official Hurricane Frances thread...

[Tim G]

Flagler County - Hurricane Bulletin


Issued at: 11:38 AM EDT 9/4/04, expires at: 5:30 PM EDT 9/4/04

Tropical storm warnings are extended northward to altamaha sound georgia,
Areas affected. this statement recommends actions to be taken by residents in the following counties, in northeast Florida, nassau, duval, st. Johns, flagler, baker, clay, putnam, marion, hamilton, columbia, suwannee, union, bradford, alachua and gilchrist. In southeast georgia, camden and glynn.
Watches/warnings. a tropical storm warning is now in effect from altamaha sound georgia southward to flagler beach Florida, a hurricane watch remains in effect from fernandina beach Florida to flagler beach Florida, an inland tropical storm wind watch is in effect for clay marion and putnam counties of northeast Florida, a flood watch is in effect for all of northeast Florida through tuesday morning,
Storm information. at 11 am edt, 1500z, the center of hurricane frances was located by radar and reconnaissance near latitude 26.9 north, longitude 78.8 west or about 80 miles, 130 km, east of palm beach Florida.
Frances has been drifting between the west and west-northwest during the past few hours but is expected to resume a west-northwest track near 5 mph, 7 km/hr today. On the forecast track, the large eye of hurricane frances will be very near the Florida east coast by late tonight or early Sunday morning.
Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph, 165 km/hr, with higher gusts, stronger winds, especially in gusts, are possible on high rise buildings. Some strengthening is possible before landfall.
The combination of tropical storm warning and hurricane watch along the northeast Florida coast means that tropical storm conditions are expected by tonight, but a shift in track to the right could result in hurricane conditions over portions of the area.
The outer rainshield of hurricane frances will begin moving into the flagler, st. Johns, and putnam county areas later this afternoon or evening and spread across the rest of the area tonight and sunday.
Precautionary/preparedness actions. st johns county, special needs shelters have been opened for electrically dependant citizens. The special needs shelters are located at the st johns county agricultural center and the hastings community center.
A voluntary evacuation recommended for mobile and manufactured homes, occupied recreational vehicles, boat residents and special attention to citizens living in low lying areas prone to flooding by rain located throughout st johns county. A shelter has been opened at pedro menendez high school in st. Augustine.
Residents who feel their home is safe from flooding and wind do not need to evacuate at this time.
Flagler county, a mandatory evacuation starting at 6 am today is being ordered for the area east of the intracoastal waterway.
A mandatory evacuation is also being ordered for all modular, manufactured, mobile homes, occupied recreational vehicles, and all homes in low-lying flood prone areas throughout flagler county.
There is a mandatory evacuation in the city of palm coast for residents of the woodlands and all residents on saltwater canals east of Florida park drive or palm harbor parkway, north of palm coast parkway, at noon today. A voluntary evacuation is in effect beginning at 6 am today for the affected areas.
General area information, review your familys hurricane plan and hurricane kit. Marine interests should review their hurricane plans. Interests in normally flood prone areas are urged to take actions to secure life and property prior the onset of heavy rainfall.
Storm surge flood and storm tide impacts. at this time, no significant tidal flooding is expected through this evening. Tides of 2 to 3 feet above the height of a normal tide are possible tonight and Sunday. In combination with possible heavy rainfalll, this may result in some localized minor coastal flooding near times of high tides tonight and Sunday. Any track deviation to the north may result in higher tides locally.
Wind impacts. this afternoon, winds will continue increasing across the coastal areas of northeast florida. These winds are a result of an increased pressure gradient between a large area of high pressure and the circulation of frances and are not directly a result of the hurricane.
Winds along the nassau and duval county coastal areas will increase to 20 to 30 mph with occasional gusts to 45 mph. For st johns and flagler county coastal areas sustained winds will gradually increase to 25 to 35 mph, with occasional gusts to 45 mph, by late afternoon.
Tonight and Sunday, winds in the inland tropical storm watch area are expected to reach 30 to 40 mph with gusts to 50 mph. The highest winds will likely be over the ocala national forest and along the st. Johns river.
Along the immediate coastal areas of nassau and duval counties sustained winds of 35 to 45 mph with occasional gusts to 55 mph are expected. For st johns and flagler county coastal areas sustained winds of 40 to 50 mph with frequent gusts to near 60 mph are expected.
Along the immediate coast of camden and glynn counties sustained winds reaching minimal tropical storm strength of 30 to 40 mph with occasional gusts to 50 mph will be possible.
Seas and rip currents. based on the current forecast track, winds over the Florida coastal waters will increase to 40 to 50 mph with gusts to 70 mph tonight into Sunday night. Due to the long period swell, seas will be near 12 feet today and build to over 20 feet by Sunday. Small craft should stay in port. The georgia coastal waters will see winds increasing to 30 to 40 mph with higher gusts.
Regardless of the exact path of the storm, long period swells will continue to affect the coast through the entire holiday weekend, continuing a high risk of rip currents.
Flood impacts. hurricane frances poses a significant threat of very heavy rainfall as it moves inland. Depending upon the speed of movement, some areas along and to the right of the path could see rainfall amounts of 8 to 12 inches, with locally higher amounts. Rain bands will begin affecting northeast Florida late today, and heavy rainfall could begin affecting portions of north Florida and southeast georgia as early as tonight and continue through Monday.
Based on the predicted track of frances on Sunday and Monday, rainfall totals over southeast georgia are expected to be around 2 to 4 inches. However, rainfall amounts could be considerably higher if the storm were to move closer to the region.
Tornado impacts. there will be a strong possibility of tornadoes as the storm moves by the area this holiday weekend. Remember even a weakening tropical storm can produce damaging tornadoes. Remain alert for possible watches and warnings.
Next update. the next hurricane local statement from the national weather service in jacksonville will be issued around 530 pm edt.

 

[Tim G]

Hardee County - Flood Watch, Hurricane Bulletin, Flood Warning, Severe Weather Bulletin


Flood Watch:

Issued at: 12:22 PM EDT 9/4/04, expires at: 6:00 PM EDT 9/4/04

The Flood Watch remains in effect until 1000 pm edt Sunday Evening. The watch continues for the following counties,
Charlotte, Citrus, De Soto, Hardee, Hernando, Highlands, Hillsborough, Lee, Levy, Manatee, Pasco, Pinellas, Polk, sarasota and sumter.
Some cities in the watch include,
Arcadia, Bartow, Bradenton, Brandon, Brooksville, Cape Coral, Chiefland, Clearwater, Clearwater Beach, Fort Myers, Inverness, Lakeland, New Port Richey, Port Charlotte, Punta Gorda, Sarasota, Sebring, Spring Hill, Tampa, Venice, Winter Haven And zephyrhills.
Hurricane frances is forecast to move onshore the east coast of florida later today and then move in a northwest direction across south and central Florida tonight and Sunday.
The slow movement of frances will prolong heavy rainfall with total amounts of 8 to 12 inches north and east of the track of frances and 4 to 8 inches south and west of the track.
These rainfall amounts are enough to cause moderate to major flooding across a large area.
A flood watch means flooding is possible during the next 24 to 36 hours. Residents living in flood prone areas should take action to protect property.
Residents, Particularly Those In flood prone areas, As Well As Those living near small streams and creeks, Should Be Prepared to move to higher ground.
Stay tuned to noaa weather radio and other local media for updates and possible warnings.


Hurricane Bulletin:

Issued at: 11:28 AM EDT 9/4/04, expires at: 3:00 PM EDT 9/4/04

Hurricane frances slowly approaching Florida''s east coast. a tropical storm warning is in effect from bonita beach north to anna maria island, a tropical storm watch is in effect from anna maria island to the suwannee river, flood watch for all counties in west central and southwest florida, inland hurricane wind warning for sumter polk, highlands and hardee counties,
This statement is for people in the following counties. citrus, charlotte, desoto, hernando, hillsborough, lee, levy, manatee, pasco, pinellas, sarasota, hardee, highlands, polk, sumter,
Watch/warning information. a tropical storm warning is now in effect from bonita beach north to anna maria island. A tropical storm watch is in effect from anna maria island north to the suwannee river.
Storm location. at 11 am edt, the center of hurricane frances was located by radar and surface observations near latitude 26.9 north, longitude 78.8 west or about 240 miles east-southeast of the tampa bay region. This position is also about 80 miles east of palm beach florida. Frances has been drifting between the west and west northwest during the past few hours, but is expected to resume a west northwest track near 5 mph.
Current radar information. the outer band from hurricane frances was over central Florida from orlando to fort myers. Showers with a few thunderstorms were within the band which is producing locally heavy rainfall and wind gust of 35 to 45 mph. The showers were moving southwest at 40 mph, the band was moving west at 5 mph.
Wind information. frances will move slowly across inland counties Sunday producing near hurricane force winds that will weaken as the storm continues west northwest across the Florida peninsula. Tropical storm force winds of 35 to 50 mph, with locally higher gusts, can be expected over west central and southwest Florida tonight and Sunday. The strongest winds will be located near the center of frances as it tracks across the region.
Surge information. as frances moves northwestward Sunday, winds will become onshore and begin to raise water levels 2 to 4 feet above normal.
Flood information. the slow movement of frances will prolong heavy rainfall over the state with rainfall amounts of 8 to 12 inches north and east of the center of frances and 4 to 8 inches on the south and west sides of frances. Locally higher amounts will likely occur. Moderate to major flooding may develop over much of west central Florida late tonight and Sunday, with most rivers and streams rising out of their banks. Residents living along streams, creeks, and rivers across the region should be prepared for significant flooding and take actions to protect property.
Marine information. as frances nears the west coast of Florida winds and seas will increase over the gulf making conditions hazardous Saturday and sunday.
Tornado information. the primary area for tornado development in tropical systems is the right front quadrant of the storm. As frances moves northwestward over the peninsula, that part of the storm will affect Florida''s east coast. There will be an increased threat for tornadic activity late tonight and tomorrow when west central and southwest Florida is on the east side of the storm.
Shelter and road status. please contact your local county emergency management for shelter and road status.
The next hurricane local statement will be issued at 3 pm.


Flood Warning:

Issued at: 11:10 AM EDT 9/04/04, expires at: 12:00 AM EDT 9/5/04

A river flood warning remains in effect for, the peace river at bartow, zolfo springs, and arcadia. And the myakke river at the myakka river state park.
Hurricane frances will bring a wide variety of severe weather across the florida peninsula this weekend. Hurricane force winds and rainfall amounts of 10 to 20 inches are possible as the hurricane moves across the state. Expect the currently flooded rivers to have siginificant rises over the next few days. Major flooding is possible after the hurricane passes.
For the peace river at bartow, minor flooding is occurring, with a stage of 8.5 feet measured at 8 am Saturday. Moderate flooding is forecast, with a maximum stage of 9.7 feet around 2 pm Monday, which is 1.7 feet above flood stage. This compares to a previous crest of 8.3 feet on jun 25 2003. At 8.0 feet, private roads downstream flood.
For the peace river at zolfo springs, minor flooding is occurring, with a stage of 16.1 feet measured at 8 am Saturday. Minor flooding is forecast, with a maximum stage of 19.3 feet around 2 pm Tuesday, which is 3.3 feet above flood stage. This compares to a previous crest of 17.7 feet on jun 25 2003.
For the peace river at arcadia, minor flooding is occurring, with a stage of 11.6 feet measured at 9 am Saturday. Moderate flooding is forecast, with a maximum stage of 14.4 feet around 8 pm Thursday, which is 3.4 feet above flood stage. This compares to a previous crest of 15.4 feet on jun 26 2003. At 15.0 feet, river acres is impacted. At 14.0 feet, k o a campground floods and 6 homes at river acres are impacted. At 13.0 feet, peace river estates floods affecting several dozen homes. At 12.0 feet, the girl scout camp floods. At 11.0 feet, access roads to river acres become flooded. At 10.0 feet, 3 to 4 homes in the river acres subdivision flood and the lowest portion of the girl scout camp floods.
For the myakka river at myakka state park, minor flooding is occurring, with a stage of 7.1 feet measured at 11 am Saturday. Minor flooding is forecast, with a maximum stage of 7.8 feet around 2 am Tuesday, which is 0.8 feet above flood stage. This compares to a previous crest of 7.1 feet on aug 2 2003. At 8.5 feet, most of myakka state park is closed. At 8.0 feet, the main park road floods. At 7.0 feet, trails, picnic areas, and parking lots flood.
Do not drive cars through flooded areas, stay tuned to developments by listening to noaa weather radio.


Severe Weather Bulletin:

Issued at: 12:03 AM EDT 9/4/04, expires at: 8:00 PM EDT 9/5/04

Inland hurricane wind warning has been extended until 800 pm edt sunday evening,
At 11 pm edt, the national hurricane center issued a tropical storm watch for much of the Florida west coast. The national weather service in tampa is now issuing hurricane local statements under wmo header wtus82 ktbw. All future wind information relating to the inland hurricane wind warning will be contained in the hurricane local statements.

 

[Tim G]

Hernando County - Flood Watch, Hurricane Bulletin


Flood Watch:

Issued at: 12:22 PM EDT 9/4/04, expires at: 6:00 PM EDT 9/4/04

The Flood Watch remains in effect until 1000 pm edt Sunday Evening. The watch continues for the following counties,
Charlotte, Citrus, De Soto, Hardee, Hernando, Highlands, Hillsborough, Lee, Levy, Manatee, Pasco, Pinellas, Polk, sarasota and sumter.
Some cities in the watch include,
Arcadia, Bartow, Bradenton, Brandon, Brooksville, Cape Coral, Chiefland, Clearwater, Clearwater Beach, Fort Myers, Inverness, Lakeland, New Port Richey, Port Charlotte, Punta Gorda, Sarasota, Sebring, Spring Hill, Tampa, Venice, Winter Haven And zephyrhills.
Hurricane frances is forecast to move onshore the east coast of florida later today and then move in a northwest direction across south and central Florida tonight and Sunday.
The slow movement of frances will prolong heavy rainfall with total amounts of 8 to 12 inches north and east of the track of frances and 4 to 8 inches south and west of the track.
These rainfall amounts are enough to cause moderate to major flooding across a large area.
A flood watch means flooding is possible during the next 24 to 36 hours. Residents living in flood prone areas should take action to protect property.
Residents, Particularly Those In flood prone areas, As Well As Those living near small streams and creeks, Should Be Prepared to move to higher ground.
Stay tuned to noaa weather radio and other local media for updates and possible warnings.


Hurricane Bulletin:

Issued at: 11:28 AM EDT 9/4/04, expires at: 3:00 PM EDT 9/4/04

Hurricane frances slowly approaching Florida''s east coast. a tropical storm warning is in effect from bonita beach north to anna maria island, a tropical storm watch is in effect from anna maria island to the suwannee river, flood watch for all counties in west central and southwest florida, inland hurricane wind warning for sumter polk, highlands and hardee counties,
This statement is for people in the following counties. citrus, charlotte, desoto, hernando, hillsborough, lee, levy, manatee, pasco, pinellas, sarasota, hardee, highlands, polk, sumter,
Watch/warning information. a tropical storm warning is now in effect from bonita beach north to anna maria island. A tropical storm watch is in effect from anna maria island north to the suwannee river.
Storm location. at 11 am edt, the center of hurricane frances was located by radar and surface observations near latitude 26.9 north, longitude 78.8 west or about 240 miles east-southeast of the tampa bay region. This position is also about 80 miles east of palm beach florida. Frances has been drifting between the west and west northwest during the past few hours, but is expected to resume a west northwest track near 5 mph.
Current radar information. the outer band from hurricane frances was over central Florida from orlando to fort myers. Showers with a few thunderstorms were within the band which is producing locally heavy rainfall and wind gust of 35 to 45 mph. The showers were moving southwest at 40 mph, the band was moving west at 5 mph.
Wind information. frances will move slowly across inland counties Sunday producing near hurricane force winds that will weaken as the storm continues west northwest across the Florida peninsula. Tropical storm force winds of 35 to 50 mph, with locally higher gusts, can be expected over west central and southwest Florida tonight and Sunday. The strongest winds will be located near the center of frances as it tracks across the region.
Surge information. as frances moves northwestward Sunday, winds will become onshore and begin to raise water levels 2 to 4 feet above normal.
Flood information. the slow movement of frances will prolong heavy rainfall over the state with rainfall amounts of 8 to 12 inches north and east of the center of frances and 4 to 8 inches on the south and west sides of frances. Locally higher amounts will likely occur. Moderate to major flooding may develop over much of west central Florida late tonight and Sunday, with most rivers and streams rising out of their banks. Residents living along streams, creeks, and rivers across the region should be prepared for significant flooding and take actions to protect property.
Marine information. as frances nears the west coast of Florida winds and seas will increase over the gulf making conditions hazardous Saturday and sunday.
Tornado information. the primary area for tornado development in tropical systems is the right front quadrant of the storm. As frances moves northwestward over the peninsula, that part of the storm will affect Florida''s east coast. There will be an increased threat for tornadic activity late tonight and tomorrow when west central and southwest Florida is on the east side of the storm.
Shelter and road status. please contact your local county emergency management for shelter and road status.
The next hurricane local statement will be issued at 3 pm.

 

[Tim G]

Highlands County - Flood Watch, Hurricane Bulletin, Severe Weather Bulletin


Flood Watch:

Issued at: 12:22 PM EDT 9/4/04, expires at: 6:00 PM EDT 9/4/04

The Flood Watch remains in effect until 1000 pm edt Sunday Evening. The watch continues for the following counties,
Charlotte, Citrus, De Soto, Hardee, Hernando, Highlands, Hillsborough, Lee, Levy, Manatee, Pasco, Pinellas, Polk, sarasota and sumter.
Some cities in the watch include,
Arcadia, Bartow, Bradenton, Brandon, Brooksville, Cape Coral, Chiefland, Clearwater, Clearwater Beach, Fort Myers, Inverness, Lakeland, New Port Richey, Port Charlotte, Punta Gorda, Sarasota, Sebring, Spring Hill, Tampa, Venice, Winter Haven And zephyrhills.
Hurricane frances is forecast to move onshore the east coast of florida later today and then move in a northwest direction across south and central Florida tonight and Sunday.
The slow movement of frances will prolong heavy rainfall with total amounts of 8 to 12 inches north and east of the track of frances and 4 to 8 inches south and west of the track.
These rainfall amounts are enough to cause moderate to major flooding across a large area.
A flood watch means flooding is possible during the next 24 to 36 hours. Residents living in flood prone areas should take action to protect property.
Residents, Particularly Those In flood prone areas, As Well As Those living near small streams and creeks, Should Be Prepared to move to higher ground.
Stay tuned to noaa weather radio and other local media for updates and possible warnings.


Hurricane Bulletin:

Issued at: 11:28 AM EDT 9/4/04, expires at: 3:00 PM EDT 9/4/04

Hurricane frances slowly approaching Florida''s east coast. a tropical storm warning is in effect from bonita beach north to anna maria island, a tropical storm watch is in effect from anna maria island to the suwannee river, flood watch for all counties in west central and southwest florida, inland hurricane wind warning for sumter polk, highlands and hardee counties,
This statement is for people in the following counties. citrus, charlotte, desoto, hernando, hillsborough, lee, levy, manatee, pasco, pinellas, sarasota, hardee, highlands, polk, sumter,
Watch/warning information. a tropical storm warning is now in effect from bonita beach north to anna maria island. A tropical storm watch is in effect from anna maria island north to the suwannee river.
Storm location. at 11 am edt, the center of hurricane frances was located by radar and surface observations near latitude 26.9 north, longitude 78.8 west or about 240 miles east-southeast of the tampa bay region. This position is also about 80 miles east of palm beach florida. Frances has been drifting between the west and west northwest during the past few hours, but is expected to resume a west northwest track near 5 mph.
Current radar information. the outer band from hurricane frances was over central Florida from orlando to fort myers. Showers with a few thunderstorms were within the band which is producing locally heavy rainfall and wind gust of 35 to 45 mph. The showers were moving southwest at 40 mph, the band was moving west at 5 mph.
Wind information. frances will move slowly across inland counties Sunday producing near hurricane force winds that will weaken as the storm continues west northwest across the Florida peninsula. Tropical storm force winds of 35 to 50 mph, with locally higher gusts, can be expected over west central and southwest Florida tonight and Sunday. The strongest winds will be located near the center of frances as it tracks across the region.
Surge information. as frances moves northwestward Sunday, winds will become onshore and begin to raise water levels 2 to 4 feet above normal.
Flood information. the slow movement of frances will prolong heavy rainfall over the state with rainfall amounts of 8 to 12 inches north and east of the center of frances and 4 to 8 inches on the south and west sides of frances. Locally higher amounts will likely occur. Moderate to major flooding may develop over much of west central Florida late tonight and Sunday, with most rivers and streams rising out of their banks. Residents living along streams, creeks, and rivers across the region should be prepared for significant flooding and take actions to protect property.
Marine information. as frances nears the west coast of Florida winds and seas will increase over the gulf making conditions hazardous Saturday and sunday.
Tornado information. the primary area for tornado development in tropical systems is the right front quadrant of the storm. As frances moves northwestward over the peninsula, that part of the storm will affect Florida''s east coast. There will be an increased threat for tornadic activity late tonight and tomorrow when west central and southwest Florida is on the east side of the storm.
Shelter and road status. please contact your local county emergency management for shelter and road status.
The next hurricane local statement will be issued at 3 pm.


Severe Weather Bulletin:

Issued at: 12:03 AM EDT 9/4/04, expires at: 8:00 PM EDT 9/5/04

Inland hurricane wind warning has been extended until 800 pm edt sunday evening,
At 11 pm edt, the national hurricane center issued a tropical storm watch for much of the Florida west coast. The national weather service in tampa is now issuing hurricane local statements under wmo header wtus82 ktbw. All future wind information relating to the inland hurricane wind warning will be contained in the hurricane local statements.

 

[Tim G]

Indian River County - Hurricane Bulletin, Flood Warning, Flood Watch


Hurricane Bulletin:

Issued at: 12:39 PM EDT 9/4/04, expires at: 2:39 PM EDT 9/4/04

Strong outer rainbands with gusts to hurricane strength spreading over indian river st. Lucie and martin counties,
Frances getting better organized and heading toward east central florida coast,
flood warning for indian river martin, st. Lucie counties,
Hurricane warning from south of flagler beach to Florida city which includes all of the east central Florida coast,
Inland hurricane wind warning for all interior counties of east central Florida,
Flood watch is in effect through Sunday for all of east central florida,
Areas affected. this hurricane local statement recommends actions to be taken by residents of the following counties, volusia, lake, seminole, orange, brevard, osceola, indian river, saint lucie, martin and okeechobee.
Precautionary/preparedness actions. conditions are rapidly deteriorating as high winds and heavy rain move onshore in outer rainbands. Power outages and downed trees and limbs have already been reported in coastal brevard county. Wind gusts ranging from 55 to 67 mph in brevard county and 59 mph at vero beach and 87 mph at jupiter inlet this morning. Residents of brevard, eastern osceola, indian river, saint lucie, martin and okeechobee counties should stay in shelter through tonight as conditions will only get worse.
This will be a long duration wind and rain event. Do not get caught trying to do things outdoors in between rainbands, stay put in shelter. As frances makes landfall this evening people in and close to the core of maximum winds should take shelter in a small room on the lowest floor such as a closet or bathroom. Put as many walls between you and the hurricane winds as possible. Stay away from windows. Keep a battery operated noaa weather radio with you or am fm radio to receive updates and warnings. Tornado warnings will be issued if a high threat of tornadoes or destructive winds with hurricane rainbands are forecast using doppler radar.
Wind impacts. with winds of 105 mph, frances is a strong category two hurricane. It is likely that some reorganization and strengthening will take place today as frances moves slowly over the gulf stream. Frances could still make landfall as a category three storm with winds near 110 mph.
At 1155 am edt, national weather service doppler radar indicated strong winds around the large circulation center of hurricane frances located just offshore martin and saint lucie counties. These winds were associated with the inner convection of frances and will support hurricane force winds of 75 mph moving onto the coast from fort pierce to jupiter, and then overspreading inland sections. The winds will approach from the north and northeast.
Storm surge flood and storm tide impacts. storm surge models using the official track forecast indicate that frances will be making landfall during the time of high tide around midnight tonight between jupiter inlet and cape canaveral. This would produce maximum storm tides of seven or eight feet near and to the right of where the center makes landfall, most likely brevard and indian river counties. North of cape canaveral, a surge of 3 to 4 feet is likely. Battering waves of very long duration will be of great concern along the beaches. Significant wind and wave damage is likely in the intracoastal waterway.
Flood impacts. a flood warning has been issued for indian river, st lucie and martin counties through tonight. A flood watch has been issued for all east central Florida counties through Sunday.
At 1220 pm edt, weather service doppler radar indicated a large area of very heavy rain associated with hurricane frances covering indian river, saint lucie, and martin counties, and extending well over one hundred miles offshore into the atlantic.
Radar estimates between one and three inches of rain has fallen over the warning area since early this morning. Continuous rainfall rates of between one half and one inch per hour are expected over the next 6 hours, resulting in the potential for additional rainfall totals between 3 and 6 inches through early evening. Additional rainfall is forecast through tonight and Sunday, so an extended period of flooding is possible. This warning is likely to be extended.
Excessive rainfall will cause flooding of streets, intersections low lying and poor drainage areas, as well as flooding of rural roads, small creeks and streams.
Storm information. at 11 am edt the center of hurricane frances was located near latitude 26.9 north, longitude 78.8 west or about 135 miles southeast of melbourne and 95 miles east southeast of fort pierce. Frances is moving toward the west northwest near 6 mph.
Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph with higher gusts. This makes frances a strong category two hurricane. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible today as frances becomes a little more organized.
Watches and warnings. a hurricane warning is in effect from flagler beach south to florida city, which includes all of the east central Florida coastal counties, and also lake okeechobee. An inland hurricane wind warning is in effect for okeechobee, osceola, orange, lake inland volusia and seminole counties. A flood watch is in effect through Sunday for all of east central Florida.
Tornado impacts. isolated tornadoes are possible in some of the stronger outer rainbands and the threat will increase as the inner rainbands of frances move in later tonight.
Next update. the next hurricane local statement will be issued around 3 pm or sooner if conditions warrant.


Flood Warning:

Issued at: 12:20 PM EDT 9/4/04, expires at: 6:00 PM EDT 9/4/04

A flood warning for: indian river county martin county st. Lucie county in east central Florida Until 600 pm edt
At 1220 pm edt, weather service doppler radar indicated a large area of very heavy rain associated with hurricane frances covering indian river, saint lucie, and martin counties, and extending well over one hundred miles offshore into the atlantic.
Radar estimates between one and three inches of rain has fallen over the warning area since early this morning. Continuous rainfall rates of between one half and one inch per hour are expected over the next 6 hours, resulting in the potential for additional rainfall totals between 3 and 6 inches through early evening. Additional rainfall is forecast through tonight and Sunday, so an extended period of flooding is possible. This warning is likely to be extended.
Excessive rainfall will cause flooding of streets, intersections low lying and poor drainage areas, as well as flooding of rural roads, small creeks and streams, and farmland. Farmlands along the banks of creeks and streams and other low lying areas are also subject to flooding.
High water will also make downed trees and power lines very difficult to see. The bottom line is that the combination of wind and flooding makes for potentially life threatening situation.
Lat, lon 2696 8011 2785 8047 2783 8087 2764 8077 2713 8068 2697 8085


Flood Watch:

Issued at: 6:00 PM EDT 9/3/04, expires at: 4:00 PM EDT 9/5/04

A Flood Watch is in effect for all of east central Florida through Sunday,
Significant Flooding Likely with hurricane frances,
The flood watch is in effect for volusia, Brevard, Seminole, Lake, Orange, Osceola, Indian River, Saint Lucie, Martin, and okeechobee counties.
Hurricane frances is large and slow moving with extensive rainfall in all quadrants. Hurricane frances is also much larger than Hurricane charley, Resulting In Much longer durations of rainfall, with upwards of 12 to 18 hours of rainfall occurring in some locations. These factors are all signs that significant flooding will occur as frances moves onshore Saturday then slowly northwest over the Florida peninsula. The flooding threat will begin to increase early Saturday as frances nears the coast. The flooding danger will persist through Sunday as frances slowly works northwest across the peninsula.
Widespread inland flooding is likely in areas where the heaviest Rainfall occurs. This includes low lying and poorly drained areas, but will also occur in areas not typically as susceptible to Flooding, Due To The long duration of heavy rains occurring on ground that is already nearly saturated.
The flooding impacts will also occur along lakes, Streams, And Along the st johns river in east central Florida, Where Significant rises are expected to occur over the next several days. River levels approaching record stages may occur.
Wide areas of flooding in east central Florida will also make driving very dangerous. If you cannot see the road or its line markings do not drive your vehicle through the water. The water depth may be too great to allow your car to cross safely. Only two feet of water can make most vehicles buoyant and prone to being swept away. Vehicles caught in rising water should be abandoned quickly.
Persons in east central Florida should take necessary measures to protect life and property from flooding associated with frances. Be ready to take quick action if flooding is observed or a flood warning is issued.

 

[Tim G]

Northern Lake County - Hurricane Bulletin, Severe Weather Bulletin, Flood Watch


Hurricane Bulletin:

Issued at: 12:39 PM EDT 9/4/04, expires at: 2:39 PM EDT 9/4/04

Strong outer rainbands with gusts to hurricane strength spreading over indian river st. Lucie and martin counties,
Frances getting better organized and heading toward east central florida coast,
flood warning for indian river martin, st. Lucie counties,
Hurricane warning from south of flagler beach to Florida city which includes all of the east central Florida coast,
Inland hurricane wind warning for all interior counties of east central Florida,
Flood watch is in effect through Sunday for all of east central florida,
Areas affected. this hurricane local statement recommends actions to be taken by residents of the following counties, volusia, lake, seminole, orange, brevard, osceola, indian river, saint lucie, martin and okeechobee.
Precautionary/preparedness actions. conditions are rapidly deteriorating as high winds and heavy rain move onshore in outer rainbands. Power outages and downed trees and limbs have already been reported in coastal brevard county. Wind gusts ranging from 55 to 67 mph in brevard county and 59 mph at vero beach and 87 mph at jupiter inlet this morning. Residents of brevard, eastern osceola, indian river, saint lucie, martin and okeechobee counties should stay in shelter through tonight as conditions will only get worse.
This will be a long duration wind and rain event. Do not get caught trying to do things outdoors in between rainbands, stay put in shelter. As frances makes landfall this evening people in and close to the core of maximum winds should take shelter in a small room on the lowest floor such as a closet or bathroom. Put as many walls between you and the hurricane winds as possible. Stay away from windows. Keep a battery operated noaa weather radio with you or am fm radio to receive updates and warnings. Tornado warnings will be issued if a high threat of tornadoes or destructive winds with hurricane rainbands are forecast using doppler radar.
Wind impacts. with winds of 105 mph, frances is a strong category two hurricane. It is likely that some reorganization and strengthening will take place today as frances moves slowly over the gulf stream. Frances could still make landfall as a category three storm with winds near 110 mph.
At 1155 am edt, national weather service doppler radar indicated strong winds around the large circulation center of hurricane frances located just offshore martin and saint lucie counties. These winds were associated with the inner convection of frances and will support hurricane force winds of 75 mph moving onto the coast from fort pierce to jupiter, and then overspreading inland sections. The winds will approach from the north and northeast.
Storm surge flood and storm tide impacts. storm surge models using the official track forecast indicate that frances will be making landfall during the time of high tide around midnight tonight between jupiter inlet and cape canaveral. This would produce maximum storm tides of seven or eight feet near and to the right of where the center makes landfall, most likely brevard and indian river counties. North of cape canaveral, a surge of 3 to 4 feet is likely. Battering waves of very long duration will be of great concern along the beaches. Significant wind and wave damage is likely in the intracoastal waterway.
Flood impacts. a flood warning has been issued for indian river, st lucie and martin counties through tonight. A flood watch has been issued for all east central Florida counties through Sunday.
At 1220 pm edt, weather service doppler radar indicated a large area of very heavy rain associated with hurricane frances covering indian river, saint lucie, and martin counties, and extending well over one hundred miles offshore into the atlantic.
Radar estimates between one and three inches of rain has fallen over the warning area since early this morning. Continuous rainfall rates of between one half and one inch per hour are expected over the next 6 hours, resulting in the potential for additional rainfall totals between 3 and 6 inches through early evening. Additional rainfall is forecast through tonight and Sunday, so an extended period of flooding is possible. This warning is likely to be extended.
Excessive rainfall will cause flooding of streets, intersections low lying and poor drainage areas, as well as flooding of rural roads, small creeks and streams.
Storm information. at 11 am edt the center of hurricane frances was located near latitude 26.9 north, longitude 78.8 west or about 135 miles southeast of melbourne and 95 miles east southeast of fort pierce. Frances is moving toward the west northwest near 6 mph.
Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph with higher gusts. This makes frances a strong category two hurricane. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible today as frances becomes a little more organized.
Watches and warnings. a hurricane warning is in effect from flagler beach south to florida city, which includes all of the east central Florida coastal counties, and also lake okeechobee. An inland hurricane wind warning is in effect for okeechobee, osceola, orange, lake inland volusia and seminole counties. A flood watch is in effect through Sunday for all of east central Florida.
Tornado impacts. isolated tornadoes are possible in some of the stronger outer rainbands and the threat will increase as the inner rainbands of frances move in later tonight.
Next update. the next hurricane local statement will be issued around 3 pm or sooner if conditions warrant.


Severe Weather Bulletin:

Issued at: 12:21 PM EDT 9/04/04, expires at: 12:00 PM EDT 9/5/04

This product refers to the st. Johns river.
For the st. Johns river near lake harney, moderate flooding is forecasted over the next five days with the potential for major flooding by late in the week. For the st. Johns river near sanford and near deland, minor flooding is forecasted over the next five days with the potential for moderate flooding late in the week.
Widespread heavy rainfall associated with hurricane frances will cause river levels to rise significantly over the middle st johns river basin over the next several days.
For the st. Johns river above lake harney, the latest stage was 6.4 feet at 10 am Saturday. The river is forecast to reach flood stage by early Monday, then a continued rise to 9.9 feet Thursday, which is 1.4 feet above flood stage. At 8.5 feet, water enters the first story of structures on prevatt road. Roads flood in the palm shores and mullet lake areas. At 9.0 feet, water enters the first story of homes on whitcomb road between crossover and lake harney road.
For the st. Johns river near sanford, the latest stage was 4.2 feet at 11 am Saturday. The river is forecast to reach flood stage by early Wednesday, then a continued rise to 6.2 feet Thursday, which is 0.4 feet above flood stage. At 6.2 feet, roads become flooded in stone island subdivision. Water comes up to pool enclosures and patios.
For the st. Johns river near deland, the latest stage was 2.3 feet at 10 am Saturday. The river is forecast to reach flood stage monday, then a continued rise to 4.6 feet Thursday, which is 0.4 feet above flood stage. At 4.5 feet, water moves into yards and approaches buildings around hontoon island. Docks flooded at hontoon island state park.
Persons along the st johns river should take measure to protect life and property from flooding. Do not drive cars through flooded areas, stay tuned to developments by listening to noaa weather radio.


Flood Watch:

Issued at: 6:00 PM EDT 9/3/04, expires at: 4:00 PM EDT 9/5/04

A Flood Watch is in effect for all of east central Florida through Sunday,
Significant Flooding Likely with hurricane frances,
The flood watch is in effect for volusia, Brevard, Seminole, Lake, Orange, Osceola, Indian River, Saint Lucie, Martin, and okeechobee counties.
Hurricane frances is large and slow moving with extensive rainfall in all quadrants. Hurricane frances is also much larger than Hurricane charley, Resulting In Much longer durations of rainfall, with upwards of 12 to 18 hours of rainfall occurring in some locations. These factors are all signs that significant flooding will occur as frances moves onshore Saturday then slowly northwest over the Florida peninsula. The flooding threat will begin to increase early Saturday as frances nears the coast. The flooding danger will persist through Sunday as frances slowly works northwest across the peninsula.
Widespread inland flooding is likely in areas where the heaviest Rainfall occurs. This includes low lying and poorly drained areas, but will also occur in areas not typically as susceptible to Flooding, Due To The long duration of heavy rains occurring on ground that is already nearly saturated.
The flooding impacts will also occur along lakes, Streams, And Along the st johns river in east central Florida, Where Significant rises are expected to occur over the next several days. River levels approaching record stages may occur.
Wide areas of flooding in east central Florida will also make driving very dangerous. If you cannot see the road or its line markings do not drive your vehicle through the water. The water depth may be too great to allow your car to cross safely. Only two feet of water can make most vehicles buoyant and prone to being swept away. Vehicles caught in rising water should be abandoned quickly.
Persons in east central Florida should take necessary measures to protect life and property from flooding associated with frances. Be ready to take quick action if flooding is observed or a flood warning is issued.

 

[Tim G]

Southern Lake County - Severe Weather Bulletin, Flood Watch


Severe Weather Bulletin:

Issued at: 12:21 PM EDT 9/04/04, expires at: 12:00 PM EDT 9/5/04

This product refers to the st. Johns river.
For the st. Johns river near lake harney, moderate flooding is forecasted over the next five days with the potential for major flooding by late in the week. For the st. Johns river near sanford and near deland, minor flooding is forecasted over the next five days with the potential for moderate flooding late in the week.
Widespread heavy rainfall associated with hurricane frances will cause river levels to rise significantly over the middle st johns river basin over the next several days.
For the st. Johns river above lake harney, the latest stage was 6.4 feet at 10 am Saturday. The river is forecast to reach flood stage by early Monday, then a continued rise to 9.9 feet Thursday, which is 1.4 feet above flood stage. At 8.5 feet, water enters the first story of structures on prevatt road. Roads flood in the palm shores and mullet lake areas. At 9.0 feet, water enters the first story of homes on whitcomb road between crossover and lake harney road.
For the st. Johns river near sanford, the latest stage was 4.2 feet at 11 am Saturday. The river is forecast to reach flood stage by early Wednesday, then a continued rise to 6.2 feet Thursday, which is 0.4 feet above flood stage. At 6.2 feet, roads become flooded in stone island subdivision. Water comes up to pool enclosures and patios.
For the st. Johns river near deland, the latest stage was 2.3 feet at 10 am Saturday. The river is forecast to reach flood stage monday, then a continued rise to 4.6 feet Thursday, which is 0.4 feet above flood stage. At 4.5 feet, water moves into yards and approaches buildings around hontoon island. Docks flooded at hontoon island state park.
Persons along the st johns river should take measure to protect life and property from flooding. Do not drive cars through flooded areas, stay tuned to developments by listening to noaa weather radio.


Flood Watch:

Issued at: 6:00 PM EDT 9/3/04, expires at: 4:00 PM EDT 9/5/04

A Flood Watch is in effect for all of east central Florida through Sunday,
Significant Flooding Likely with hurricane frances,
The flood watch is in effect for volusia, Brevard, Seminole, Lake, Orange, Osceola, Indian River, Saint Lucie, Martin, and okeechobee counties.
Hurricane frances is large and slow moving with extensive rainfall in all quadrants. Hurricane frances is also much larger than Hurricane charley, Resulting In Much longer durations of rainfall, with upwards of 12 to 18 hours of rainfall occurring in some locations. These factors are all signs that significant flooding will occur as frances moves onshore Saturday then slowly northwest over the Florida peninsula. The flooding threat will begin to increase early Saturday as frances nears the coast. The flooding danger will persist through Sunday as frances slowly works northwest across the peninsula.
Widespread inland flooding is likely in areas where the heaviest Rainfall occurs. This includes low lying and poorly drained areas, but will also occur in areas not typically as susceptible to Flooding, Due To The long duration of heavy rains occurring on ground that is already nearly saturated.
The flooding impacts will also occur along lakes, Streams, And Along the st johns river in east central Florida, Where Significant rises are expected to occur over the next several days. River levels approaching record stages may occur.
Wide areas of flooding in east central Florida will also make driving very dangerous. If you cannot see the road or its line markings do not drive your vehicle through the water. The water depth may be too great to allow your car to cross safely. Only two feet of water can make most vehicles buoyant and prone to being swept away. Vehicles caught in rising water should be abandoned quickly.
Persons in east central Florida should take necessary measures to protect life and property from flooding associated with frances. Be ready to take quick action if flooding is observed or a flood warning is issued.

 

[Tim G]

Marion County - Severe Weather Bulletin, Hurricane Bulletin


Severe Weather Bulletin:

Issued at: 11:52 AM EDT 9/4/04, expires at: 12:00 AM EDT 9/5/04

inland tropical storm wind watch remains in effect
The NWS in jacksonville has issued an inland tropical storm wind watch.
An inland tropical storm wind watch is issued when sustained winds near tropical storm strength, or frequent gusts at or above tropical storm strength, are possible within 24 to 36 hours.
Hurricane frances is expected to impact the area beginning late tonight and continuing into Sunday. Depending upon the exact track and intensity of the storm at landfall winds may increase to near tropical storm force over portions of clay, putnam and marion counties early Sunday morning. General wind speeds 40 to 50 mph with gusts to 60 mph are possible, with the highest winds over the ocala national forest and along the immediate beaches.
Fasten down any loose doors, windows, shingles, and siding before the winds increase.
Move light and moderate weight items indoors before the winds increase.
Wind gusts in excess of 60 mph are possible! residents may want to fasten protective covering to windows, and fasten doors and garages before the winds increase.


Hurricane Bulletin:

Issued at: 11:38 AM EDT 9/4/04, expires at: 5:30 PM EDT 9/4/04

Tropical storm warnings are extended northward to altamaha sound georgia,
Areas affected. this statement recommends actions to be taken by residents in the following counties, in northeast Florida, nassau, duval, st. Johns, flagler, baker, clay, putnam, marion, hamilton, columbia, suwannee, union, bradford, alachua and gilchrist. In southeast georgia, camden and glynn.
Watches/warnings. a tropical storm warning is now in effect from altamaha sound georgia southward to flagler beach Florida, a hurricane watch remains in effect from fernandina beach Florida to flagler beach Florida, an inland tropical storm wind watch is in effect for clay marion and putnam counties of northeast Florida, a flood watch is in effect for all of northeast Florida through tuesday morning,
Storm information. at 11 am edt, 1500z, the center of hurricane frances was located by radar and reconnaissance near latitude 26.9 north, longitude 78.8 west or about 80 miles, 130 km, east of palm beach Florida.
Frances has been drifting between the west and west-northwest during the past few hours but is expected to resume a west-northwest track near 5 mph, 7 km/hr today. On the forecast track, the large eye of hurricane frances will be very near the Florida east coast by late tonight or early Sunday morning.
Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph, 165 km/hr, with higher gusts, stronger winds, especially in gusts, are possible on high rise buildings. Some strengthening is possible before landfall.
The combination of tropical storm warning and hurricane watch along the northeast Florida coast means that tropical storm conditions are expected by tonight, but a shift in track to the right could result in hurricane conditions over portions of the area.
The outer rainshield of hurricane frances will begin moving into the flagler, st. Johns, and putnam county areas later this afternoon or evening and spread across the rest of the area tonight and sunday.
Precautionary/preparedness actions. st johns county, special needs shelters have been opened for electrically dependant citizens. The special needs shelters are located at the st johns county agricultural center and the hastings community center.
A voluntary evacuation recommended for mobile and manufactured homes, occupied recreational vehicles, boat residents and special attention to citizens living in low lying areas prone to flooding by rain located throughout st johns county. A shelter has been opened at pedro menendez high school in st. Augustine.
Residents who feel their home is safe from flooding and wind do not need to evacuate at this time.
Flagler county, a mandatory evacuation starting at 6 am today is being ordered for the area east of the intracoastal waterway.
A mandatory evacuation is also being ordered for all modular, manufactured, mobile homes, occupied recreational vehicles, and all homes in low-lying flood prone areas throughout flagler county.
There is a mandatory evacuation in the city of palm coast for residents of the woodlands and all residents on saltwater canals east of Florida park drive or palm harbor parkway, north of palm coast parkway, at noon today. A voluntary evacuation is in effect beginning at 6 am today for the affected areas.
General area information, review your familys hurricane plan and hurricane kit. Marine interests should review their hurricane plans. Interests in normally flood prone areas are urged to take actions to secure life and property prior the onset of heavy rainfall.
Storm surge flood and storm tide impacts. at this time, no significant tidal flooding is expected through this evening. Tides of 2 to 3 feet above the height of a normal tide are possible tonight and Sunday. In combination with possible heavy rainfalll, this may result in some localized minor coastal flooding near times of high tides tonight and Sunday. Any track deviation to the north may result in higher tides locally.
Wind impacts. this afternoon, winds will continue increasing across the coastal areas of northeast florida. These winds are a result of an increased pressure gradient between a large area of high pressure and the circulation of frances and are not directly a result of the hurricane.
Winds along the nassau and duval county coastal areas will increase to 20 to 30 mph with occasional gusts to 45 mph. For st johns and flagler county coastal areas sustained winds will gradually increase to 25 to 35 mph, with occasional gusts to 45 mph, by late afternoon.
Tonight and Sunday, winds in the inland tropical storm watch area are expected to reach 30 to 40 mph with gusts to 50 mph. The highest winds will likely be over the ocala national forest and along the st. Johns river.
Along the immediate coastal areas of nassau and duval counties sustained winds of 35 to 45 mph with occasional gusts to 55 mph are expected. For st johns and flagler county coastal areas sustained winds of 40 to 50 mph with frequent gusts to near 60 mph are expected.
Along the immediate coast of camden and glynn counties sustained winds reaching minimal tropical storm strength of 30 to 40 mph with occasional gusts to 50 mph will be possible.
Seas and rip currents. based on the current forecast track, winds over the Florida coastal waters will increase to 40 to 50 mph with gusts to 70 mph tonight into Sunday night. Due to the long period swell, seas will be near 12 feet today and build to over 20 feet by Sunday. Small craft should stay in port. The georgia coastal waters will see winds increasing to 30 to 40 mph with higher gusts.
Regardless of the exact path of the storm, long period swells will continue to affect the coast through the entire holiday weekend, continuing a high risk of rip currents.
Flood impacts. hurricane frances poses a significant threat of very heavy rainfall as it moves inland. Depending upon the speed of movement, some areas along and to the right of the path could see rainfall amounts of 8 to 12 inches, with locally higher amounts. Rain bands will begin affecting northeast Florida late today, and heavy rainfall could begin affecting portions of north Florida and southeast georgia as early as tonight and continue through Monday.
Based on the predicted track of frances on Sunday and Monday, rainfall totals over southeast georgia are expected to be around 2 to 4 inches. However, rainfall amounts could be considerably higher if the storm were to move closer to the region.
Tornado impacts. there will be a strong possibility of tornadoes as the storm moves by the area this holiday weekend. Remember even a weakening tropical storm can produce damaging tornadoes. Remain alert for possible watches and warnings.
Next update. the next hurricane local statement from the national weather service in jacksonville will be issued around 530 pm edt.

 

[Tim G]

Okeechobee County - Hurricane Bulletin, Flood Watch


Hurricane Bulletin:

Issued at: 12:39 PM EDT 9/4/04, expires at: 2:39 PM EDT 9/4/04

Strong outer rainbands with gusts to hurricane strength spreading over indian river st. Lucie and martin counties,
Frances getting better organized and heading toward east central florida coast,
flood warning for indian river martin, st. Lucie counties,
Hurricane warning from south of flagler beach to Florida city which includes all of the east central Florida coast,
Inland hurricane wind warning for all interior counties of east central Florida,
Flood watch is in effect through Sunday for all of east central florida,
Areas affected. this hurricane local statement recommends actions to be taken by residents of the following counties, volusia, lake, seminole, orange, brevard, osceola, indian river, saint lucie, martin and okeechobee.
Precautionary/preparedness actions. conditions are rapidly deteriorating as high winds and heavy rain move onshore in outer rainbands. Power outages and downed trees and limbs have already been reported in coastal brevard county. Wind gusts ranging from 55 to 67 mph in brevard county and 59 mph at vero beach and 87 mph at jupiter inlet this morning. Residents of brevard, eastern osceola, indian river, saint lucie, martin and okeechobee counties should stay in shelter through tonight as conditions will only get worse.
This will be a long duration wind and rain event. Do not get caught trying to do things outdoors in between rainbands, stay put in shelter. As frances makes landfall this evening people in and close to the core of maximum winds should take shelter in a small room on the lowest floor such as a closet or bathroom. Put as many walls between you and the hurricane winds as possible. Stay away from windows. Keep a battery operated noaa weather radio with you or am fm radio to receive updates and warnings. Tornado warnings will be issued if a high threat of tornadoes or destructive winds with hurricane rainbands are forecast using doppler radar.
Wind impacts. with winds of 105 mph, frances is a strong category two hurricane. It is likely that some reorganization and strengthening will take place today as frances moves slowly over the gulf stream. Frances could still make landfall as a category three storm with winds near 110 mph.
At 1155 am edt, national weather service doppler radar indicated strong winds around the large circulation center of hurricane frances located just offshore martin and saint lucie counties. These winds were associated with the inner convection of frances and will support hurricane force winds of 75 mph moving onto the coast from fort pierce to jupiter, and then overspreading inland sections. The winds will approach from the north and northeast.
Storm surge flood and storm tide impacts. storm surge models using the official track forecast indicate that frances will be making landfall during the time of high tide around midnight tonight between jupiter inlet and cape canaveral. This would produce maximum storm tides of seven or eight feet near and to the right of where the center makes landfall, most likely brevard and indian river counties. North of cape canaveral, a surge of 3 to 4 feet is likely. Battering waves of very long duration will be of great concern along the beaches. Significant wind and wave damage is likely in the intracoastal waterway.
Flood impacts. a flood warning has been issued for indian river, st lucie and martin counties through tonight. A flood watch has been issued for all east central Florida counties through Sunday.
At 1220 pm edt, weather service doppler radar indicated a large area of very heavy rain associated with hurricane frances covering indian river, saint lucie, and martin counties, and extending well over one hundred miles offshore into the atlantic.
Radar estimates between one and three inches of rain has fallen over the warning area since early this morning. Continuous rainfall rates of between one half and one inch per hour are expected over the next 6 hours, resulting in the potential for additional rainfall totals between 3 and 6 inches through early evening. Additional rainfall is forecast through tonight and Sunday, so an extended period of flooding is possible. This warning is likely to be extended.
Excessive rainfall will cause flooding of streets, intersections low lying and poor drainage areas, as well as flooding of rural roads, small creeks and streams.
Storm information. at 11 am edt the center of hurricane frances was located near latitude 26.9 north, longitude 78.8 west or about 135 miles southeast of melbourne and 95 miles east southeast of fort pierce. Frances is moving toward the west northwest near 6 mph.
Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph with higher gusts. This makes frances a strong category two hurricane. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible today as frances becomes a little more organized.
Watches and warnings. a hurricane warning is in effect from flagler beach south to florida city, which includes all of the east central Florida coastal counties, and also lake okeechobee. An inland hurricane wind warning is in effect for okeechobee, osceola, orange, lake inland volusia and seminole counties. A flood watch is in effect through Sunday for all of east central Florida.
Tornado impacts. isolated tornadoes are possible in some of the stronger outer rainbands and the threat will increase as the inner rainbands of frances move in later tonight.
Next update. the next hurricane local statement will be issued around 3 pm or sooner if conditions warrant.


Flood Watch:

Issued at: 6:00 PM EDT 9/3/04, expires at: 4:00 PM EDT 9/5/04

A Flood Watch is in effect for all of east central Florida through Sunday,
Significant Flooding Likely with hurricane frances,
The flood watch is in effect for volusia, Brevard, Seminole, Lake, Orange, Osceola, Indian River, Saint Lucie, Martin, and okeechobee counties.
Hurricane frances is large and slow moving with extensive rainfall in all quadrants. Hurricane frances is also much larger than Hurricane charley, Resulting In Much longer durations of rainfall, with upwards of 12 to 18 hours of rainfall occurring in some locations. These factors are all signs that significant flooding will occur as frances moves onshore Saturday then slowly northwest over the Florida peninsula. The flooding threat will begin to increase early Saturday as frances nears the coast. The flooding danger will persist through Sunday as frances slowly works northwest across the peninsula.
Widespread inland flooding is likely in areas where the heaviest Rainfall occurs. This includes low lying and poorly drained areas, but will also occur in areas not typically as susceptible to Flooding, Due To The long duration of heavy rains occurring on ground that is already nearly saturated.
The flooding impacts will also occur along lakes, Streams, And Along the st johns river in east central Florida, Where Significant rises are expected to occur over the next several days. River levels approaching record stages may occur.
Wide areas of flooding in east central Florida will also make driving very dangerous. If you cannot see the road or its line markings do not drive your vehicle through the water. The water depth may be too great to allow your car to cross safely. Only two feet of water can make most vehicles buoyant and prone to being swept away. Vehicles caught in rising water should be abandoned quickly.
Persons in east central Florida should take necessary measures to protect life and property from flooding associated with frances. Be ready to take quick action if flooding is observed or a flood warning is issued.

 

[Tim G]

Orange County - Hurricane Bulletin, Flood Watch


Hurricane Bulletin:

Issued at: 12:39 PM EDT 9/4/04, expires at: 2:39 PM EDT 9/4/04

Strong outer rainbands with gusts to hurricane strength spreading over indian river st. Lucie and martin counties,
Frances getting better organized and heading toward east central florida coast,
flood warning for indian river martin, st. Lucie counties,
Hurricane warning from south of flagler beach to Florida city which includes all of the east central Florida coast,
Inland hurricane wind warning for all interior counties of east central Florida,
Flood watch is in effect through Sunday for all of east central florida,
Areas affected. this hurricane local statement recommends actions to be taken by residents of the following counties, volusia, lake, seminole, orange, brevard, osceola, indian river, saint lucie, martin and okeechobee.
Precautionary/preparedness actions. conditions are rapidly deteriorating as high winds and heavy rain move onshore in outer rainbands. Power outages and downed trees and limbs have already been reported in coastal brevard county. Wind gusts ranging from 55 to 67 mph in brevard county and 59 mph at vero beach and 87 mph at jupiter inlet this morning. Residents of brevard, eastern osceola, indian river, saint lucie, martin and okeechobee counties should stay in shelter through tonight as conditions will only get worse.
This will be a long duration wind and rain event. Do not get caught trying to do things outdoors in between rainbands, stay put in shelter. As frances makes landfall this evening people in and close to the core of maximum winds should take shelter in a small room on the lowest floor such as a closet or bathroom. Put as many walls between you and the hurricane winds as possible. Stay away from windows. Keep a battery operated noaa weather radio with you or am fm radio to receive updates and warnings. Tornado warnings will be issued if a high threat of tornadoes or destructive winds with hurricane rainbands are forecast using doppler radar.
Wind impacts. with winds of 105 mph, frances is a strong category two hurricane. It is likely that some reorganization and strengthening will take place today as frances moves slowly over the gulf stream. Frances could still make landfall as a category three storm with winds near 110 mph.
At 1155 am edt, national weather service doppler radar indicated strong winds around the large circulation center of hurricane frances located just offshore martin and saint lucie counties. These winds were associated with the inner convection of frances and will support hurricane force winds of 75 mph moving onto the coast from fort pierce to jupiter, and then overspreading inland sections. The winds will approach from the north and northeast.
Storm surge flood and storm tide impacts. storm surge models using the official track forecast indicate that frances will be making landfall during the time of high tide around midnight tonight between jupiter inlet and cape canaveral. This would produce maximum storm tides of seven or eight feet near and to the right of where the center makes landfall, most likely brevard and indian river counties. North of cape canaveral, a surge of 3 to 4 feet is likely. Battering waves of very long duration will be of great concern along the beaches. Significant wind and wave damage is likely in the intracoastal waterway.
Flood impacts. a flood warning has been issued for indian river, st lucie and martin counties through tonight. A flood watch has been issued for all east central Florida counties through Sunday.
At 1220 pm edt, weather service doppler radar indicated a large area of very heavy rain associated with hurricane frances covering indian river, saint lucie, and martin counties, and extending well over one hundred miles offshore into the atlantic.
Radar estimates between one and three inches of rain has fallen over the warning area since early this morning. Continuous rainfall rates of between one half and one inch per hour are expected over the next 6 hours, resulting in the potential for additional rainfall totals between 3 and 6 inches through early evening. Additional rainfall is forecast through tonight and Sunday, so an extended period of flooding is possible. This warning is likely to be extended.
Excessive rainfall will cause flooding of streets, intersections low lying and poor drainage areas, as well as flooding of rural roads, small creeks and streams.
Storm information. at 11 am edt the center of hurricane frances was located near latitude 26.9 north, longitude 78.8 west or about 135 miles southeast of melbourne and 95 miles east southeast of fort pierce. Frances is moving toward the west northwest near 6 mph.
Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph with higher gusts. This makes frances a strong category two hurricane. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible today as frances becomes a little more organized.
Watches and warnings. a hurricane warning is in effect from flagler beach south to florida city, which includes all of the east central Florida coastal counties, and also lake okeechobee. An inland hurricane wind warning is in effect for okeechobee, osceola, orange, lake inland volusia and seminole counties. A flood watch is in effect through Sunday for all of east central Florida.
Tornado impacts. isolated tornadoes are possible in some of the stronger outer rainbands and the threat will increase as the inner rainbands of frances move in later tonight.
Next update. the next hurricane local statement will be issued around 3 pm or sooner if conditions warrant.

Flood Watch:

Issued at: 6:00 PM EDT 9/3/04, expires at: 4:00 PM EDT 9/5/04

A Flood Watch is in effect for all of east central Florida through Sunday,
Significant Flooding Likely with hurricane frances,
The flood watch is in effect for volusia, Brevard, Seminole, Lake, Orange, Osceola, Indian River, Saint Lucie, Martin, and okeechobee counties.
Hurricane frances is large and slow moving with extensive rainfall in all quadrants. Hurricane frances is also much larger than Hurricane charley, Resulting In Much longer durations of rainfall, with upwards of 12 to 18 hours of rainfall occurring in some locations. These factors are all signs that significant flooding will occur as frances moves onshore Saturday then slowly northwest over the Florida peninsula. The flooding threat will begin to increase early Saturday as frances nears the coast. The flooding danger will persist through Sunday as frances slowly works northwest across the peninsula.
Widespread inland flooding is likely in areas where the heaviest Rainfall occurs. This includes low lying and poorly drained areas, but will also occur in areas not typically as susceptible to Flooding, Due To The long duration of heavy rains occurring on ground that is already nearly saturated.
The flooding impacts will also occur along lakes, Streams, And Along the st johns river in east central Florida, Where Significant rises are expected to occur over the next several days. River levels approaching record stages may occur.
Wide areas of flooding in east central Florida will also make driving very dangerous. If you cannot see the road or its line markings do not drive your vehicle through the water. The water depth may be too great to allow your car to cross safely. Only two feet of water can make most vehicles buoyant and prone to being swept away. Vehicles caught in rising water should be abandoned quickly.
Persons in east central Florida should take necessary measures to protect life and property from flooding associated with frances. Be ready to take quick action if flooding is observed or a flood warning is issued.

 

[Tim G]

Osceola County - Hurricane Bulletin, Flood Watch


Hurricane Bulletin:

Issued at: 2:20 PM EDT 9/4/04, expires at: 4:20 PM EDT 9/4/04

Strong outer rainbands with gusts to hurricane strength pounding coastal indian river st. Lucie and martin counties,
Frances near stationary over west end bahamas east of palm beach,
flood warning for indian river martin, st. Lucie counties,
Hurricane warning from south of flagler beach to Florida city which includes all of the east central Florida coast,
Inland hurricane wind warning for all interior counties of east central Florida,
Flood watch is in effect through Sunday for all of east central florida,
Areas affected. this hurricane local statement recommends actions to be taken by residents of the following counties, volusia, lake, seminole, orange, brevard, osceola, indian river, saint lucie, martin and okeechobee.
Wind impacts. hurricane frances is nearly stationary at 70 miles east of palm beach. The lack of movement will increase the wind and rain damage threat to the area between palm beach and vero beach. Precistant winds gusts from 80 to 100 mph have been reported on the coast.
At 125 pm, melbourne weather radar indicated an intensifying spiral rainband associated with hurricane frances over the atlantic 60 miles east of melbourne to just offshore saint lucie and martin counties. The rainband will produce squalls with wind gusts of 80 mph along the immediate coast of saint lucie and martin counties, with 60 to 80 mph gusts likely just inland from the coast through 230 pm. An even stronger rainband was forming 25 to 30 miles offshore martin county and will produce wind gusts near 100 mph toward mid afternoon across coastal martin county. Move to a secure location in the center of your home prior to the onset of these destructive wind gusts.
Across brevard county from cape canaveral south and over coastal indian river counties, wind gusts of 45 to 50 mph will continue with steady light to moderate rain. Stronger winds will develop over these areas later this afternoon.
At 2 pm wptv in palm beach reported the roof coming off a hotel, a commercial shopping plaza building destroyed and part of a car dealership building destroyed in stuart.
Storm surge flood and storm tide impacts. storm surge models using the official track forecast indicate that frances will be making landfall during the time of high tide around midnight tonight between jupiter inlet and cape canaveral. This would produce maximum storm tides of seven or eight feet near and to the right of where the center makes landfall, most likely brevard and indian river counties. North of cape canaveral, a surge of 3 to 4 feet is likely. Battering waves of very long duration will be of great concern along the beaches. Significant wind and wave damage is likely in the intracoastal waterway.
Flood impacts. a flood warning has been issued for indian river, st lucie and martin counties through tonight. A flood watch has been issued for all east central Florida counties through Sunday.
A radar estimates between one and three inches of rain has fallen over the warning area since early this morning. Continuous rainfall rates of between one half and one inch per hour are expected over the next 6 hours, resulting in the potential for additional rainfall totals between 3 and 6 inches through early evening. Additional rainfall is forecast through tonight and Sunday, so an extended period of flooding is possible. This warning is likely to be extended.
Storm information. at 2 pm edt the large eye of hurricane frances was located near latitude 26.9 north, longitude 79.0 west or about 70 miles, east of palm beach Florida.
Frances has barely moved during the past hour. However the hurricane is expected to resume a west to west-northwest track near 5 mph, 7 km/hr today. On the forecast track, the center of the large eye of hurricane frances will be very near the Florida east coast by late tonight or early Sunday morning.
Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph with higher gusts.
Precautionary/preparedness actions. this will be a long duration wind and rain event. Do not get caught trying to do things outdoors in between rainbands, stay put in shelter. As frances makes landfall this evening people in and close to the core of maximum winds should take shelter in a small room on the lowest floor such as a closet or bathroom. Put as many walls between you and the hurricane winds as possible. Stay away from windows. Keep a battery operated noaa weather radio with you or am fm radio to receive updates and warnings. Tornado warnings will be issued if a high threat of tornadoes or destructive winds with hurricane rainbands are forecast using doppler radar.
Excessive rainfall will cause flooding of streets, intersections low lying and poor drainage areas, as well as flooding of rural roads, small creeks and streams.
Watches and warnings. a hurricane warning is in effect from flagler beach south to florida city, which includes all of the east central Florida coastal counties, and also lake okeechobee. An inland hurricane wind warning is in effect for okeechobee, osceola, orange, lake inland volusia and seminole counties. A flood watch is in effect through Sunday for all of east central Florida.
Tornado impacts. isolated tornadoes are possible in some of the stronger outer rainbands and the threat will increase as the inner rainbands of frances move in later tonight.
Next update. the next hurricane local statement will be issued around 4 pm or sooner if conditions warrant.


Flood Watch:

Issued at: 6:00 PM EDT 9/3/04, expires at: 4:00 PM EDT 9/5/04

A Flood Watch is in effect for all of east central Florida through Sunday,
Significant Flooding Likely with hurricane frances,
The flood watch is in effect for volusia, Brevard, Seminole, Lake, Orange, Osceola, Indian River, Saint Lucie, Martin, and okeechobee counties.
Hurricane frances is large and slow moving with extensive rainfall in all quadrants. Hurricane frances is also much larger than Hurricane charley, Resulting In Much longer durations of rainfall, with upwards of 12 to 18 hours of rainfall occurring in some locations. These factors are all signs that significant flooding will occur as frances moves onshore Saturday then slowly northwest over the Florida peninsula. The flooding threat will begin to increase early Saturday as frances nears the coast. The flooding danger will persist through Sunday as frances slowly works northwest across the peninsula.
Widespread inland flooding is likely in areas where the heaviest Rainfall occurs. This includes low lying and poorly drained areas, but will also occur in areas not typically as susceptible to Flooding, Due To The long duration of heavy rains occurring on ground that is already nearly saturated.
The flooding impacts will also occur along lakes, Streams, And Along the st johns river in east central Florida, Where Significant rises are expected to occur over the next several days. River levels approaching record stages may occur.
Wide areas of flooding in east central Florida will also make driving very dangerous. If you cannot see the road or its line markings do not drive your vehicle through the water. The water depth may be too great to allow your car to cross safely. Only two feet of water can make most vehicles buoyant and prone to being swept away. Vehicles caught in rising water should be abandoned quickly.
Persons in east central Florida should take necessary measures to protect life and property from flooding associated with frances. Be ready to take quick action if flooding is observed or a flood warning is issued.

 

[Tim G]

Pasco County - Hurricane Bulletin, Flood Watch


Hurricane Bulletin:

Issued at: 2:14 PM EDT 9/4/04, expires at: 6:00 PM EDT 9/4/04

Hurricane frances drifting west. a tropical storm warning is in effect from bonita beach north to anna maria island, a tropical storm watch is in effect from anna maria island to the suwannee river, flood watch for all counties in west central and southwest florida, inland hurricane wind warning for sumter polk, highlands and hardee counties,
This statement is for people in the following counties. citrus, charlotte, desoto, hernando, hillsborough, lee, levy, manatee, pasco, pinellas, sarasota, hardee, highlands, polk, sumter,
Watch/warning information. a tropical storm warning is now in effect from bonita beach north to anna maria island. A tropical storm watch is in effect from anna maria island north to the suwannee river.
Storm location. at 2 pm edt, the center of hurricane frances was located by radar and surface observations near latitude 26.9 north, longitude 79.0 west or about 230 miles east-southeast of the tampa bay region. This position is also about 70 miles east of palm beach florida. Frances has been drifting to the west during the past few hours, but is expected to resume a west northwest track near 5 mph.
Current radar information. outer band from hurricane frances continue to move quickly west and southwestward. One band has moved off the coast into the eastern gulf of mexico, while another has formed along peace river and will move westward at 20 mph. Wind gusts as high as 50 mph are possible with the strongest showers, with more general wind gusts from 30 to 40 mph. Additional bands are expected to develop and move westward throughout the afternoon.
Wind information. frances will move slowly across inland counties Sunday producing near hurricane force winds that will weaken as the storm continues west northwest across the Florida peninsula. Tropical storm force winds of 35 to 50 mph, with locally higher gusts, can be expected over west central and southwest Florida tonight and Sunday. The strongest winds will be located near the center of frances as it tracks across the region.
Surge information. as frances moves west northwestward Sunday, winds will become onshore and begin to raise water levels 2 to 4 feet above normal. Beach erosion and splashover is likely.
Flood information. the slow movement of frances will prolong heavy rainfall over the state with rainfall amounts of 8 to 12 inches north and east of the center of frances and 4 to 8 inches on the south and west sides of frances. Locally higher amounts will likely occur. Moderate to major flooding may develop over much of west central Florida late tonight and Sunday, with most rivers and streams rising out of their banks. Residents living along streams, creeks, and rivers across the region should be prepared for significant flooding and take actions to protect property.
In addition, the heavy rain will cause flooding of many urban low lying areas. Some street and intersection closures are likely this weekend.
Marine information. tropical storm force wind gusts are expected this afternoon as the outer bands move offshore. Winds and seas will increase will time into tonight. Small craft should remain in port.
Tornado information. the primary area for tornado development in tropical systems is the right front quadrant of the storm. As frances moves northwestward over the peninsula, that part of the storm will affect Florida''s east coast. There will be an increased threat for tornadic activity late tonight and tomorrow when west central and southwest Florida is on the east side of the storm.
Shelter and road status. please contact your local county emergency management for shelter and road status.
The next hurricane local statement will be issued at 6 pm.


Flood Watch:

Issued at: 12:22 PM EDT 9/4/04, expires at: 6:00 PM EDT 9/4/04

The Flood Watch remains in effect until 1000 pm edt Sunday Evening. The watch continues for the following counties,
Charlotte, Citrus, De Soto, Hardee, Hernando, Highlands, Hillsborough, Lee, Levy, Manatee, Pasco, Pinellas, Polk, sarasota and sumter.
Some cities in the watch include,
Arcadia, Bartow, Bradenton, Brandon, Brooksville, Cape Coral, Chiefland, Clearwater, Clearwater Beach, Fort Myers, Inverness, Lakeland, New Port Richey, Port Charlotte, Punta Gorda, Sarasota, Sebring, Spring Hill, Tampa, Venice, Winter Haven And zephyrhills.
Hurricane frances is forecast to move onshore the east coast of florida later today and then move in a northwest direction across south and central Florida tonight and Sunday.
The slow movement of frances will prolong heavy rainfall with total amounts of 8 to 12 inches north and east of the track of frances and 4 to 8 inches south and west of the track.
These rainfall amounts are enough to cause moderate to major flooding across a large area.
A flood watch means flooding is possible during the next 24 to 36 hours. Residents living in flood prone areas should take action to protect property.
Residents, Particularly Those In flood prone areas, As Well As Those living near small streams and creeks, Should Be Prepared to move to higher ground.
Stay tuned to noaa weather radio and other local media for updates and possible warnings.

 

[Tim G]

Polk County - Hurricane Bulletin, Flood Watch, Flood Warning, Severe Weather Bulletin


Hurricane Bulletin:

Issued at: 2:14 PM EDT 9/4/04, expires at: 6:00 PM EDT 9/4/04

Hurricane frances drifting west. a tropical storm warning is in effect from bonita beach north to anna maria island, a tropical storm watch is in effect from anna maria island to the suwannee river, flood watch for all counties in west central and southwest florida, inland hurricane wind warning for sumter polk, highlands and hardee counties,
This statement is for people in the following counties. citrus, charlotte, desoto, hernando, hillsborough, lee, levy, manatee, pasco, pinellas, sarasota, hardee, highlands, polk, sumter,
Watch/warning information. a tropical storm warning is now in effect from bonita beach north to anna maria island. A tropical storm watch is in effect from anna maria island north to the suwannee river.
Storm location. at 2 pm edt, the center of hurricane frances was located by radar and surface observations near latitude 26.9 north, longitude 79.0 west or about 230 miles east-southeast of the tampa bay region. This position is also about 70 miles east of palm beach florida. Frances has been drifting to the west during the past few hours, but is expected to resume a west northwest track near 5 mph.
Current radar information. outer band from hurricane frances continue to move quickly west and southwestward. One band has moved off the coast into the eastern gulf of mexico, while another has formed along peace river and will move westward at 20 mph. Wind gusts as high as 50 mph are possible with the strongest showers, with more general wind gusts from 30 to 40 mph. Additional bands are expected to develop and move westward throughout the afternoon.
Wind information. frances will move slowly across inland counties Sunday producing near hurricane force winds that will weaken as the storm continues west northwest across the Florida peninsula. Tropical storm force winds of 35 to 50 mph, with locally higher gusts, can be expected over west central and southwest Florida tonight and Sunday. The strongest winds will be located near the center of frances as it tracks across the region.
Surge information. as frances moves west northwestward Sunday, winds will become onshore and begin to raise water levels 2 to 4 feet above normal. Beach erosion and splashover is likely.
Flood information. the slow movement of frances will prolong heavy rainfall over the state with rainfall amounts of 8 to 12 inches north and east of the center of frances and 4 to 8 inches on the south and west sides of frances. Locally higher amounts will likely occur. Moderate to major flooding may develop over much of west central Florida late tonight and Sunday, with most rivers and streams rising out of their banks. Residents living along streams, creeks, and rivers across the region should be prepared for significant flooding and take actions to protect property.
In addition, the heavy rain will cause flooding of many urban low lying areas. Some street and intersection closures are likely this weekend.
Marine information. tropical storm force wind gusts are expected this afternoon as the outer bands move offshore. Winds and seas will increase will time into tonight. Small craft should remain in port.
Tornado information. the primary area for tornado development in tropical systems is the right front quadrant of the storm. As frances moves northwestward over the peninsula, that part of the storm will affect Florida''s east coast. There will be an increased threat for tornadic activity late tonight and tomorrow when west central and southwest Florida is on the east side of the storm.
Shelter and road status. please contact your local county emergency management for shelter and road status.
The next hurricane local statement will be issued at 6 pm.


Flood Watch:

Issued at: 12:22 PM EDT 9/4/04, expires at: 6:00 PM EDT 9/4/04

The Flood Watch remains in effect until 1000 pm edt Sunday Evening. The watch continues for the following counties,
Charlotte, Citrus, De Soto, Hardee, Hernando, Highlands, Hillsborough, Lee, Levy, Manatee, Pasco, Pinellas, Polk, sarasota and sumter.
Some cities in the watch include,
Arcadia, Bartow, Bradenton, Brandon, Brooksville, Cape Coral, Chiefland, Clearwater, Clearwater Beach, Fort Myers, Inverness, Lakeland, New Port Richey, Port Charlotte, Punta Gorda, Sarasota, Sebring, Spring Hill, Tampa, Venice, Winter Haven And zephyrhills.
Hurricane frances is forecast to move onshore the east coast of florida later today and then move in a northwest direction across south and central Florida tonight and Sunday.
The slow movement of frances will prolong heavy rainfall with total amounts of 8 to 12 inches north and east of the track of frances and 4 to 8 inches south and west of the track.
These rainfall amounts are enough to cause moderate to major flooding across a large area.
A flood watch means flooding is possible during the next 24 to 36 hours. Residents living in flood prone areas should take action to protect property.
Residents, Particularly Those In flood prone areas, As Well As Those living near small streams and creeks, Should Be Prepared to move to higher ground.
Stay tuned to noaa weather radio and other local media for updates and possible warnings.


Flood Warning:

Issued at: 11:10 AM EDT 9/04/04, expires at: 12:00 AM EDT 9/5/04

A river flood warning remains in effect for, the peace river at bartow, zolfo springs, and arcadia. And the myakke river at the myakka river state park.
Hurricane frances will bring a wide variety of severe weather across the florida peninsula this weekend. Hurricane force winds and rainfall amounts of 10 to 20 inches are possible as the hurricane moves across the state. Expect the currently flooded rivers to have siginificant rises over the next few days. Major flooding is possible after the hurricane passes.
For the peace river at bartow, minor flooding is occurring, with a stage of 8.5 feet measured at 8 am Saturday. Moderate flooding is forecast, with a maximum stage of 9.7 feet around 2 pm Monday, which is 1.7 feet above flood stage. This compares to a previous crest of 8.3 feet on jun 25 2003. At 8.0 feet, private roads downstream flood.
For the peace river at zolfo springs, minor flooding is occurring, with a stage of 16.1 feet measured at 8 am Saturday. Minor flooding is forecast, with a maximum stage of 19.3 feet around 2 pm Tuesday, which is 3.3 feet above flood stage. This compares to a previous crest of 17.7 feet on jun 25 2003.
For the peace river at arcadia, minor flooding is occurring, with a stage of 11.6 feet measured at 9 am Saturday. Moderate flooding is forecast, with a maximum stage of 14.4 feet around 8 pm Thursday, which is 3.4 feet above flood stage. This compares to a previous crest of 15.4 feet on jun 26 2003. At 15.0 feet, river acres is impacted. At 14.0 feet, k o a campground floods and 6 homes at river acres are impacted. At 13.0 feet, peace river estates floods affecting several dozen homes. At 12.0 feet, the girl scout camp floods. At 11.0 feet, access roads to river acres become flooded. At 10.0 feet, 3 to 4 homes in the river acres subdivision flood and the lowest portion of the girl scout camp floods.
For the myakka river at myakka state park, minor flooding is occurring, with a stage of 7.1 feet measured at 11 am Saturday. Minor flooding is forecast, with a maximum stage of 7.8 feet around 2 am Tuesday, which is 0.8 feet above flood stage. This compares to a previous crest of 7.1 feet on aug 2 2003. At 8.5 feet, most of myakka state park is closed. At 8.0 feet, the main park road floods. At 7.0 feet, trails, picnic areas, and parking lots flood.
Do not drive cars through flooded areas, stay tuned to developments by listening to noaa weather radio.


Severe Weather Bulletin:

Issued at: 12:03 AM EDT 9/4/04, expires at: 8:00 PM EDT 9/5/04

Inland hurricane wind warning has been extended until 800 pm edt sunday evening,
At 11 pm edt, the national hurricane center issued a tropical storm watch for much of the Florida west coast. The national weather service in tampa is now issuing hurricane local statements under wmo header wtus82 ktbw. All future wind information relating to the inland hurricane wind warning will be contained in the hurricane local statements.

 

[Tim G]

Putnam County - Severe Weather Bulletin, Hurricane Bulletin


Severe Weather Bulletin:

Issued at: 11:52 AM EDT 9/4/04, expires at: 12:00 AM EDT 9/5/04

inland tropical storm wind watch remains in effect
The NWS in jacksonville has issued an inland tropical storm wind watch.
An inland tropical storm wind watch is issued when sustained winds near tropical storm strength, or frequent gusts at or above tropical storm strength, are possible within 24 to 36 hours.
Hurricane frances is expected to impact the area beginning late tonight and continuing into Sunday. Depending upon the exact track and intensity of the storm at landfall winds may increase to near tropical storm force over portions of clay, putnam and marion counties early Sunday morning. General wind speeds 40 to 50 mph with gusts to 60 mph are possible, with the highest winds over the ocala national forest and along the immediate beaches.
Fasten down any loose doors, windows, shingles, and siding before the winds increase.
Move light and moderate weight items indoors before the winds increase.
Wind gusts in excess of 60 mph are possible! residents may want to fasten protective covering to windows, and fasten doors and garages before the winds increase.


Hurricane Bulletin:

Issued at: 11:38 AM EDT 9/4/04, expires at: 5:30 PM EDT 9/4/04

Tropical storm warnings are extended northward to altamaha sound georgia,
Areas affected. this statement recommends actions to be taken by residents in the following counties, in northeast Florida, nassau, duval, st. Johns, flagler, baker, clay, putnam, marion, hamilton, columbia, suwannee, union, bradford, alachua and gilchrist. In southeast georgia, camden and glynn.
Watches/warnings. a tropical storm warning is now in effect from altamaha sound georgia southward to flagler beach Florida, a hurricane watch remains in effect from fernandina beach Florida to flagler beach Florida, an inland tropical storm wind watch is in effect for clay marion and putnam counties of northeast Florida, a flood watch is in effect for all of northeast Florida through tuesday morning,
Storm information. at 11 am edt, 1500z, the center of hurricane frances was located by radar and reconnaissance near latitude 26.9 north, longitude 78.8 west or about 80 miles, 130 km, east of palm beach Florida.
Frances has been drifting between the west and west-northwest during the past few hours but is expected to resume a west-northwest track near 5 mph, 7 km/hr today. On the forecast track, the large eye of hurricane frances will be very near the Florida east coast by late tonight or early Sunday morning.
Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph, 165 km/hr, with higher gusts, stronger winds, especially in gusts, are possible on high rise buildings. Some strengthening is possible before landfall.
The combination of tropical storm warning and hurricane watch along the northeast Florida coast means that tropical storm conditions are expected by tonight, but a shift in track to the right could result in hurricane conditions over portions of the area.
The outer rainshield of hurricane frances will begin moving into the flagler, st. Johns, and putnam county areas later this afternoon or evening and spread across the rest of the area tonight and sunday.
Precautionary/preparedness actions. st johns county, special needs shelters have been opened for electrically dependant citizens. The special needs shelters are located at the st johns county agricultural center and the hastings community center.
A voluntary evacuation recommended for mobile and manufactured homes, occupied recreational vehicles, boat residents and special attention to citizens living in low lying areas prone to flooding by rain located throughout st johns county. A shelter has been opened at pedro menendez high school in st. Augustine.
Residents who feel their home is safe from flooding and wind do not need to evacuate at this time.
Flagler county, a mandatory evacuation starting at 6 am today is being ordered for the area east of the intracoastal waterway.
A mandatory evacuation is also being ordered for all modular, manufactured, mobile homes, occupied recreational vehicles, and all homes in low-lying flood prone areas throughout flagler county.
There is a mandatory evacuation in the city of palm coast for residents of the woodlands and all residents on saltwater canals east of Florida park drive or palm harbor parkway, north of palm coast parkway, at noon today. A voluntary evacuation is in effect beginning at 6 am today for the affected areas.
General area information, review your familys hurricane plan and hurricane kit. Marine interests should review their hurricane plans. Interests in normally flood prone areas are urged to take actions to secure life and property prior the onset of heavy rainfall.
Storm surge flood and storm tide impacts. at this time, no significant tidal flooding is expected through this evening. Tides of 2 to 3 feet above the height of a normal tide are possible tonight and Sunday. In combination with possible heavy rainfalll, this may result in some localized minor coastal flooding near times of high tides tonight and Sunday. Any track deviation to the north may result in higher tides locally.
Wind impacts. this afternoon, winds will continue increasing across the coastal areas of northeast florida. These winds are a result of an increased pressure gradient between a large area of high pressure and the circulation of frances and are not directly a result of the hurricane.
Winds along the nassau and duval county coastal areas will increase to 20 to 30 mph with occasional gusts to 45 mph. For st johns and flagler county coastal areas sustained winds will gradually increase to 25 to 35 mph, with occasional gusts to 45 mph, by late afternoon.
Tonight and Sunday, winds in the inland tropical storm watch area are expected to reach 30 to 40 mph with gusts to 50 mph. The highest winds will likely be over the ocala national forest and along the st. Johns river.
Along the immediate coastal areas of nassau and duval counties sustained winds of 35 to 45 mph with occasional gusts to 55 mph are expected. For st johns and flagler county coastal areas sustained winds of 40 to 50 mph with frequent gusts to near 60 mph are expected.
Along the immediate coast of camden and glynn counties sustained winds reaching minimal tropical storm strength of 30 to 40 mph with occasional gusts to 50 mph will be possible.
Seas and rip currents. based on the current forecast track, winds over the Florida coastal waters will increase to 40 to 50 mph with gusts to 70 mph tonight into Sunday night. Due to the long period swell, seas will be near 12 feet today and build to over 20 feet by Sunday. Small craft should stay in port. The georgia coastal waters will see winds increasing to 30 to 40 mph with higher gusts.
Regardless of the exact path of the storm, long period swells will continue to affect the coast through the entire holiday weekend, continuing a high risk of rip currents.
Flood impacts. hurricane frances poses a significant threat of very heavy rainfall as it moves inland. Depending upon the speed of movement, some areas along and to the right of the path could see rainfall amounts of 8 to 12 inches, with locally higher amounts. Rain bands will begin affecting northeast Florida late today, and heavy rainfall could begin affecting portions of north Florida and southeast georgia as early as tonight and continue through Monday.
Based on the predicted track of frances on Sunday and Monday, rainfall totals over southeast georgia are expected to be around 2 to 4 inches. However, rainfall amounts could be considerably higher if the storm were to move closer to the region.
Tornado impacts. there will be a strong possibility of tornadoes as the storm moves by the area this holiday weekend. Remember even a weakening tropical storm can produce damaging tornadoes. Remain alert for possible watches and warnings.
Next update. the next hurricane local statement from the national weather service in jacksonville will be issued around 530 pm edt.

 

[Tim G]

Seminole County - Hurricane Bulletin, Severe Weather Bulletin, Flood Watch


Hurricane Bulletin:

Issued at: 2:20 PM EDT 9/4/04, expires at: 4:20 PM EDT 9/4/04

Strong outer rainbands with gusts to hurricane strength pounding coastal indian river st. Lucie and martin counties,
Frances near stationary over west end bahamas east of palm beach,
flood warning for indian river martin, st. Lucie counties,
Hurricane warning from south of flagler beach to Florida city which includes all of the east central Florida coast,
Inland hurricane wind warning for all interior counties of east central Florida,
Flood watch is in effect through Sunday for all of east central florida,
Areas affected. this hurricane local statement recommends actions to be taken by residents of the following counties, volusia, lake, seminole, orange, brevard, osceola, indian river, saint lucie, martin and okeechobee.
Wind impacts. hurricane frances is nearly stationary at 70 miles east of palm beach. The lack of movement will increase the wind and rain damage threat to the area between palm beach and vero beach. Precistant winds gusts from 80 to 100 mph have been reported on the coast.
At 125 pm, melbourne weather radar indicated an intensifying spiral rainband associated with hurricane frances over the atlantic 60 miles east of melbourne to just offshore saint lucie and martin counties. The rainband will produce squalls with wind gusts of 80 mph along the immediate coast of saint lucie and martin counties, with 60 to 80 mph gusts likely just inland from the coast through 230 pm. An even stronger rainband was forming 25 to 30 miles offshore martin county and will produce wind gusts near 100 mph toward mid afternoon across coastal martin county. Move to a secure location in the center of your home prior to the onset of these destructive wind gusts.
Across brevard county from cape canaveral south and over coastal indian river counties, wind gusts of 45 to 50 mph will continue with steady light to moderate rain. Stronger winds will develop over these areas later this afternoon.
At 2 pm wptv in palm beach reported the roof coming off a hotel, a commercial shopping plaza building destroyed and part of a car dealership building destroyed in stuart.
Storm surge flood and storm tide impacts. storm surge models using the official track forecast indicate that frances will be making landfall during the time of high tide around midnight tonight between jupiter inlet and cape canaveral. This would produce maximum storm tides of seven or eight feet near and to the right of where the center makes landfall, most likely brevard and indian river counties. North of cape canaveral, a surge of 3 to 4 feet is likely. Battering waves of very long duration will be of great concern along the beaches. Significant wind and wave damage is likely in the intracoastal waterway.
Flood impacts. a flood warning has been issued for indian river, st lucie and martin counties through tonight. A flood watch has been issued for all east central Florida counties through Sunday.
A radar estimates between one and three inches of rain has fallen over the warning area since early this morning. Continuous rainfall rates of between one half and one inch per hour are expected over the next 6 hours, resulting in the potential for additional rainfall totals between 3 and 6 inches through early evening. Additional rainfall is forecast through tonight and Sunday, so an extended period of flooding is possible. This warning is likely to be extended.
Storm information. at 2 pm edt the large eye of hurricane frances was located near latitude 26.9 north, longitude 79.0 west or about 70 miles, east of palm beach Florida.
Frances has barely moved during the past hour. However the hurricane is expected to resume a west to west-northwest track near 5 mph, 7 km/hr today. On the forecast track, the center of the large eye of hurricane frances will be very near the Florida east coast by late tonight or early Sunday morning.
Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph with higher gusts.
Precautionary/preparedness actions. this will be a long duration wind and rain event. Do not get caught trying to do things outdoors in between rainbands, stay put in shelter. As frances makes landfall this evening people in and close to the core of maximum winds should take shelter in a small room on the lowest floor such as a closet or bathroom. Put as many walls between you and the hurricane winds as possible. Stay away from windows. Keep a battery operated noaa weather radio with you or am fm radio to receive updates and warnings. Tornado warnings will be issued if a high threat of tornadoes or destructive winds with hurricane rainbands are forecast using doppler radar.
Excessive rainfall will cause flooding of streets, intersections low lying and poor drainage areas, as well as flooding of rural roads, small creeks and streams.
Watches and warnings. a hurricane warning is in effect from flagler beach south to florida city, which includes all of the east central Florida coastal counties, and also lake okeechobee. An inland hurricane wind warning is in effect for okeechobee, osceola, orange, lake inland volusia and seminole counties. A flood watch is in effect through Sunday for all of east central Florida.
Tornado impacts. isolated tornadoes are possible in some of the stronger outer rainbands and the threat will increase as the inner rainbands of frances move in later tonight.
Next update. the next hurricane local statement will be issued around 4 pm or sooner if conditions warrant.


Severe Weather Bulletin:

Issued at: 12:21 PM EDT 9/04/04, expires at: 12:00 PM EDT 9/5/04

This product refers to the st. Johns river.
For the st. Johns river near lake harney, moderate flooding is forecasted over the next five days with the potential for major flooding by late in the week. For the st. Johns river near sanford and near deland, minor flooding is forecasted over the next five days with the potential for moderate flooding late in the week.
Widespread heavy rainfall associated with hurricane frances will cause river levels to rise significantly over the middle st johns river basin over the next several days.
For the st. Johns river above lake harney, the latest stage was 6.4 feet at 10 am Saturday. The river is forecast to reach flood stage by early Monday, then a continued rise to 9.9 feet Thursday, which is 1.4 feet above flood stage. At 8.5 feet, water enters the first story of structures on prevatt road. Roads flood in the palm shores and mullet lake areas. At 9.0 feet, water enters the first story of homes on whitcomb road between crossover and lake harney road.
For the st. Johns river near sanford, the latest stage was 4.2 feet at 11 am Saturday. The river is forecast to reach flood stage by early Wednesday, then a continued rise to 6.2 feet Thursday, which is 0.4 feet above flood stage. At 6.2 feet, roads become flooded in stone island subdivision. Water comes up to pool enclosures and patios.
For the st. Johns river near deland, the latest stage was 2.3 feet at 10 am Saturday. The river is forecast to reach flood stage monday, then a continued rise to 4.6 feet Thursday, which is 0.4 feet above flood stage. At 4.5 feet, water moves into yards and approaches buildings around hontoon island. Docks flooded at hontoon island state park.
Persons along the st johns river should take measure to protect life and property from flooding. Do not drive cars through flooded areas, stay tuned to developments by listening to noaa weather radio.


Flood Watch:

Issued at: 6:00 PM EDT 9/3/04, expires at: 4:00 PM EDT 9/5/04

A Flood Watch is in effect for all of east central Florida through Sunday,
Significant Flooding Likely with hurricane frances,
The flood watch is in effect for volusia, Brevard, Seminole, Lake, Orange, Osceola, Indian River, Saint Lucie, Martin, and okeechobee counties.
Hurricane frances is large and slow moving with extensive rainfall in all quadrants. Hurricane frances is also much larger than Hurricane charley, Resulting In Much longer durations of rainfall, with upwards of 12 to 18 hours of rainfall occurring in some locations. These factors are all signs that significant flooding will occur as frances moves onshore Saturday then slowly northwest over the Florida peninsula. The flooding threat will begin to increase early Saturday as frances nears the coast. The flooding danger will persist through Sunday as frances slowly works northwest across the peninsula.
Widespread inland flooding is likely in areas where the heaviest Rainfall occurs. This includes low lying and poorly drained areas, but will also occur in areas not typically as susceptible to Flooding, Due To The long duration of heavy rains occurring on ground that is already nearly saturated.
The flooding impacts will also occur along lakes, Streams, And Along the st johns river in east central Florida, Where Significant rises are expected to occur over the next several days. River levels approaching record stages may occur.
Wide areas of flooding in east central Florida will also make driving very dangerous. If you cannot see the road or its line markings do not drive your vehicle through the water. The water depth may be too great to allow your car to cross safely. Only two feet of water can make most vehicles buoyant and prone to being swept away. Vehicles caught in rising water should be abandoned quickly.
Persons in east central Florida should take necessary measures to protect life and property from flooding associated with frances. Be ready to take quick action if flooding is observed or a flood warning is issued.

 

[Tim G]

Sumter County - Hurricane Bulletin, Flood Watch, Severe Weather Bulletin


Hurricane Bulletin:

Issued at: 2:14 PM EDT 9/4/04, expires at: 6:00 PM EDT 9/4/04

Hurricane frances drifting west. a tropical storm warning is in effect from bonita beach north to anna maria island, a tropical storm watch is in effect from anna maria island to the suwannee river, flood watch for all counties in west central and southwest florida, inland hurricane wind warning for sumter polk, highlands and hardee counties,
This statement is for people in the following counties. citrus, charlotte, desoto, hernando, hillsborough, lee, levy, manatee, pasco, pinellas, sarasota, hardee, highlands, polk, sumter,
Watch/warning information. a tropical storm warning is now in effect from bonita beach north to anna maria island. A tropical storm watch is in effect from anna maria island north to the suwannee river.
Storm location. at 2 pm edt, the center of hurricane frances was located by radar and surface observations near latitude 26.9 north, longitude 79.0 west or about 230 miles east-southeast of the tampa bay region. This position is also about 70 miles east of palm beach florida. Frances has been drifting to the west during the past few hours, but is expected to resume a west northwest track near 5 mph.
Current radar information. outer band from hurricane frances continue to move quickly west and southwestward. One band has moved off the coast into the eastern gulf of mexico, while another has formed along peace river and will move westward at 20 mph. Wind gusts as high as 50 mph are possible with the strongest showers, with more general wind gusts from 30 to 40 mph. Additional bands are expected to develop and move westward throughout the afternoon.
Wind information. frances will move slowly across inland counties Sunday producing near hurricane force winds that will weaken as the storm continues west northwest across the Florida peninsula. Tropical storm force winds of 35 to 50 mph, with locally higher gusts, can be expected over west central and southwest Florida tonight and Sunday. The strongest winds will be located near the center of frances as it tracks across the region.
Surge information. as frances moves west northwestward Sunday, winds will become onshore and begin to raise water levels 2 to 4 feet above normal. Beach erosion and splashover is likely.
Flood information. the slow movement of frances will prolong heavy rainfall over the state with rainfall amounts of 8 to 12 inches north and east of the center of frances and 4 to 8 inches on the south and west sides of frances. Locally higher amounts will likely occur. Moderate to major flooding may develop over much of west central Florida late tonight and Sunday, with most rivers and streams rising out of their banks. Residents living along streams, creeks, and rivers across the region should be prepared for significant flooding and take actions to protect property.
In addition, the heavy rain will cause flooding of many urban low lying areas. Some street and intersection closures are likely this weekend.
Marine information. tropical storm force wind gusts are expected this afternoon as the outer bands move offshore. Winds and seas will increase will time into tonight. Small craft should remain in port.
Tornado information. the primary area for tornado development in tropical systems is the right front quadrant of the storm. As frances moves northwestward over the peninsula, that part of the storm will affect Florida''s east coast. There will be an increased threat for tornadic activity late tonight and tomorrow when west central and southwest Florida is on the east side of the storm.
Shelter and road status. please contact your local county emergency management for shelter and road status.
The next hurricane local statement will be issued at 6 pm.


Flood Watch:

Issued at: 12:22 PM EDT 9/4/04, expires at: 6:00 PM EDT 9/4/04

The Flood Watch remains in effect until 1000 pm edt Sunday Evening. The watch continues for the following counties,
Charlotte, Citrus, De Soto, Hardee, Hernando, Highlands, Hillsborough, Lee, Levy, Manatee, Pasco, Pinellas, Polk, sarasota and sumter.
Some cities in the watch include,
Arcadia, Bartow, Bradenton, Brandon, Brooksville, Cape Coral, Chiefland, Clearwater, Clearwater Beach, Fort Myers, Inverness, Lakeland, New Port Richey, Port Charlotte, Punta Gorda, Sarasota, Sebring, Spring Hill, Tampa, Venice, Winter Haven And zephyrhills.
Hurricane frances is forecast to move onshore the east coast of florida later today and then move in a northwest direction across south and central Florida tonight and Sunday.
The slow movement of frances will prolong heavy rainfall with total amounts of 8 to 12 inches north and east of the track of frances and 4 to 8 inches south and west of the track.
These rainfall amounts are enough to cause moderate to major flooding across a large area.
A flood watch means flooding is possible during the next 24 to 36 hours. Residents living in flood prone areas should take action to protect property.
Residents, Particularly Those In flood prone areas, As Well As Those living near small streams and creeks, Should Be Prepared to move to higher ground.
Stay tuned to noaa weather radio and other local media for updates and possible warnings.


Severe Weather Bulletin:

Issued at: 12:03 AM EDT 9/4/04, expires at: 8:00 PM EDT 9/5/04

Inland hurricane wind warning has been extended until 800 pm edt sunday evening,
At 11 pm edt, the national hurricane center issued a tropical storm watch for much of the Florida west coast. The national weather service in tampa is now issuing hurricane local statements under wmo header wtus82 ktbw. All future wind information relating to the inland hurricane wind warning will be contained in the hurricane local statements.

 

[Tim G]

Coastal Volusia County - Hurricane Bulletin, Severe Weather Bulletin, Flood Watch


Hurricane Bulletin:

Issued at: 2:20 PM EDT 9/4/04, expires at: 4:20 PM EDT 9/4/04

Strong outer rainbands with gusts to hurricane strength pounding coastal indian river st. Lucie and martin counties,
Frances near stationary over west end bahamas east of palm beach,
flood warning for indian river martin, st. Lucie counties,
Hurricane warning from south of flagler beach to Florida city which includes all of the east central Florida coast,
Inland hurricane wind warning for all interior counties of east central Florida,
Flood watch is in effect through Sunday for all of east central florida,
Areas affected. this hurricane local statement recommends actions to be taken by residents of the following counties, volusia, lake, seminole, orange, brevard, osceola, indian river, saint lucie, martin and okeechobee.
Wind impacts. hurricane frances is nearly stationary at 70 miles east of palm beach. The lack of movement will increase the wind and rain damage threat to the area between palm beach and vero beach. Precistant winds gusts from 80 to 100 mph have been reported on the coast.
At 125 pm, melbourne weather radar indicated an intensifying spiral rainband associated with hurricane frances over the atlantic 60 miles east of melbourne to just offshore saint lucie and martin counties. The rainband will produce squalls with wind gusts of 80 mph along the immediate coast of saint lucie and martin counties, with 60 to 80 mph gusts likely just inland from the coast through 230 pm. An even stronger rainband was forming 25 to 30 miles offshore martin county and will produce wind gusts near 100 mph toward mid afternoon across coastal martin county. Move to a secure location in the center of your home prior to the onset of these destructive wind gusts.
Across brevard county from cape canaveral south and over coastal indian river counties, wind gusts of 45 to 50 mph will continue with steady light to moderate rain. Stronger winds will develop over these areas later this afternoon.
At 2 pm wptv in palm beach reported the roof coming off a hotel, a commercial shopping plaza building destroyed and part of a car dealership building destroyed in stuart.
Storm surge flood and storm tide impacts. storm surge models using the official track forecast indicate that frances will be making landfall during the time of high tide around midnight tonight between jupiter inlet and cape canaveral. This would produce maximum storm tides of seven or eight feet near and to the right of where the center makes landfall, most likely brevard and indian river counties. North of cape canaveral, a surge of 3 to 4 feet is likely. Battering waves of very long duration will be of great concern along the beaches. Significant wind and wave damage is likely in the intracoastal waterway.
Flood impacts. a flood warning has been issued for indian river, st lucie and martin counties through tonight. A flood watch has been issued for all east central Florida counties through Sunday.
A radar estimates between one and three inches of rain has fallen over the warning area since early this morning. Continuous rainfall rates of between one half and one inch per hour are expected over the next 6 hours, resulting in the potential for additional rainfall totals between 3 and 6 inches through early evening. Additional rainfall is forecast through tonight and Sunday, so an extended period of flooding is possible. This warning is likely to be extended.
Storm information. at 2 pm edt the large eye of hurricane frances was located near latitude 26.9 north, longitude 79.0 west or about 70 miles, east of palm beach Florida.
Frances has barely moved during the past hour. However the hurricane is expected to resume a west to west-northwest track near 5 mph, 7 km/hr today. On the forecast track, the center of the large eye of hurricane frances will be very near the Florida east coast by late tonight or early Sunday morning.
Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph with higher gusts.
Precautionary/preparedness actions. this will be a long duration wind and rain event. Do not get caught trying to do things outdoors in between rainbands, stay put in shelter. As frances makes landfall this evening people in and close to the core of maximum winds should take shelter in a small room on the lowest floor such as a closet or bathroom. Put as many walls between you and the hurricane winds as possible. Stay away from windows. Keep a battery operated noaa weather radio with you or am fm radio to receive updates and warnings. Tornado warnings will be issued if a high threat of tornadoes or destructive winds with hurricane rainbands are forecast using doppler radar.
Excessive rainfall will cause flooding of streets, intersections low lying and poor drainage areas, as well as flooding of rural roads, small creeks and streams.
Watches and warnings. a hurricane warning is in effect from flagler beach south to florida city, which includes all of the east central Florida coastal counties, and also lake okeechobee. An inland hurricane wind warning is in effect for okeechobee, osceola, orange, lake inland volusia and seminole counties. A flood watch is in effect through Sunday for all of east central Florida.
Tornado impacts. isolated tornadoes are possible in some of the stronger outer rainbands and the threat will increase as the inner rainbands of frances move in later tonight.
Next update. the next hurricane local statement will be issued around 4 pm or sooner if conditions warrant.


Severe Weather Bulletin:

Issued at: 12:21 PM EDT 9/04/04, expires at: 12:00 PM EDT 9/5/04

This product refers to the st. Johns river.
For the st. Johns river near lake harney, moderate flooding is forecasted over the next five days with the potential for major flooding by late in the week. For the st. Johns river near sanford and near deland, minor flooding is forecasted over the next five days with the potential for moderate flooding late in the week.
Widespread heavy rainfall associated with hurricane frances will cause river levels to rise significantly over the middle st johns river basin over the next several days.
For the st. Johns river above lake harney, the latest stage was 6.4 feet at 10 am Saturday. The river is forecast to reach flood stage by early Monday, then a continued rise to 9.9 feet Thursday, which is 1.4 feet above flood stage. At 8.5 feet, water enters the first story of structures on prevatt road. Roads flood in the palm shores and mullet lake areas. At 9.0 feet, water enters the first story of homes on whitcomb road between crossover and lake harney road.
For the st. Johns river near sanford, the latest stage was 4.2 feet at 11 am Saturday. The river is forecast to reach flood stage by early Wednesday, then a continued rise to 6.2 feet Thursday, which is 0.4 feet above flood stage. At 6.2 feet, roads become flooded in stone island subdivision. Water comes up to pool enclosures and patios.
For the st. Johns river near deland, the latest stage was 2.3 feet at 10 am Saturday. The river is forecast to reach flood stage monday, then a continued rise to 4.6 feet Thursday, which is 0.4 feet above flood stage. At 4.5 feet, water moves into yards and approaches buildings around hontoon island. Docks flooded at hontoon island state park.
Persons along the st johns river should take measure to protect life and property from flooding. Do not drive cars through flooded areas, stay tuned to developments by listening to noaa weather radio.


Flood Watch:

Issued at: 6:00 PM EDT 9/3/04, expires at: 4:00 PM EDT 9/5/04

A Flood Watch is in effect for all of east central Florida through Sunday,
Significant Flooding Likely with hurricane frances,
The flood watch is in effect for volusia, Brevard, Seminole, Lake, Orange, Osceola, Indian River, Saint Lucie, Martin, and okeechobee counties.
Hurricane frances is large and slow moving with extensive rainfall in all quadrants. Hurricane frances is also much larger than Hurricane charley, Resulting In Much longer durations of rainfall, with upwards of 12 to 18 hours of rainfall occurring in some locations. These factors are all signs that significant flooding will occur as frances moves onshore Saturday then slowly northwest over the Florida peninsula. The flooding threat will begin to increase early Saturday as frances nears the coast. The flooding danger will persist through Sunday as frances slowly works northwest across the peninsula.
Widespread inland flooding is likely in areas where the heaviest Rainfall occurs. This includes low lying and poorly drained areas, but will also occur in areas not typically as susceptible to Flooding, Due To The long duration of heavy rains occurring on ground that is already nearly saturated.
The flooding impacts will also occur along lakes, Streams, And Along the st johns river in east central Florida, Where Significant rises are expected to occur over the next several days. River levels approaching record stages may occur.
Wide areas of flooding in east central Florida will also make driving very dangerous. If you cannot see the road or its line markings do not drive your vehicle through the water. The water depth may be too great to allow your car to cross safely. Only two feet of water can make most vehicles buoyant and prone to being swept away. Vehicles caught in rising water should be abandoned quickly.
Persons in east central Florida should take necessary measures to protect life and property from flooding associated with frances. Be ready to take quick action if flooding is observed or a flood warning is issued.

 

[Tim G]

Inland Volusia County - Hurricane Bulletin, Severe Weather Bulletin, Flood Watch


Hurricane Bulletin:

Issued at: 2:20 PM EDT 9/4/04, expires at: 4:20 PM EDT 9/4/04

Strong outer rainbands with gusts to hurricane strength pounding coastal indian river st. Lucie and martin counties,
Frances near stationary over west end bahamas east of palm beach,
flood warning for indian river martin, st. Lucie counties,
Hurricane warning from south of flagler beach to Florida city which includes all of the east central Florida coast,
Inland hurricane wind warning for all interior counties of east central Florida,
Flood watch is in effect through Sunday for all of east central florida,
Areas affected. this hurricane local statement recommends actions to be taken by residents of the following counties, volusia, lake, seminole, orange, brevard, osceola, indian river, saint lucie, martin and okeechobee.
Wind impacts. hurricane frances is nearly stationary at 70 miles east of palm beach. The lack of movement will increase the wind and rain damage threat to the area between palm beach and vero beach. Precistant winds gusts from 80 to 100 mph have been reported on the coast.
At 125 pm, melbourne weather radar indicated an intensifying spiral rainband associated with hurricane frances over the atlantic 60 miles east of melbourne to just offshore saint lucie and martin counties. The rainband will produce squalls with wind gusts of 80 mph along the immediate coast of saint lucie and martin counties, with 60 to 80 mph gusts likely just inland from the coast through 230 pm. An even stronger rainband was forming 25 to 30 miles offshore martin county and will produce wind gusts near 100 mph toward mid afternoon across coastal martin county. Move to a secure location in the center of your home prior to the onset of these destructive wind gusts.
Across brevard county from cape canaveral south and over coastal indian river counties, wind gusts of 45 to 50 mph will continue with steady light to moderate rain. Stronger winds will develop over these areas later this afternoon.
At 2 pm wptv in palm beach reported the roof coming off a hotel, a commercial shopping plaza building destroyed and part of a car dealership building destroyed in stuart.
Storm surge flood and storm tide impacts. storm surge models using the official track forecast indicate that frances will be making landfall during the time of high tide around midnight tonight between jupiter inlet and cape canaveral. This would produce maximum storm tides of seven or eight feet near and to the right of where the center makes landfall, most likely brevard and indian river counties. North of cape canaveral, a surge of 3 to 4 feet is likely. Battering waves of very long duration will be of great concern along the beaches. Significant wind and wave damage is likely in the intracoastal waterway.
Flood impacts. a flood warning has been issued for indian river, st lucie and martin counties through tonight. A flood watch has been issued for all east central Florida counties through Sunday.
A radar estimates between one and three inches of rain has fallen over the warning area since early this morning. Continuous rainfall rates of between one half and one inch per hour are expected over the next 6 hours, resulting in the potential for additional rainfall totals between 3 and 6 inches through early evening. Additional rainfall is forecast through tonight and Sunday, so an extended period of flooding is possible. This warning is likely to be extended.
Storm information. at 2 pm edt the large eye of hurricane frances was located near latitude 26.9 north, longitude 79.0 west or about 70 miles, east of palm beach Florida.
Frances has barely moved during the past hour. However the hurricane is expected to resume a west to west-northwest track near 5 mph, 7 km/hr today. On the forecast track, the center of the large eye of hurricane frances will be very near the Florida east coast by late tonight or early Sunday morning.
Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph with higher gusts.
Precautionary/preparedness actions. this will be a long duration wind and rain event. Do not get caught trying to do things outdoors in between rainbands, stay put in shelter. As frances makes landfall this evening people in and close to the core of maximum winds should take shelter in a small room on the lowest floor such as a closet or bathroom. Put as many walls between you and the hurricane winds as possible. Stay away from windows. Keep a battery operated noaa weather radio with you or am fm radio to receive updates and warnings. Tornado warnings will be issued if a high threat of tornadoes or destructive winds with hurricane rainbands are forecast using doppler radar.
Excessive rainfall will cause flooding of streets, intersections low lying and poor drainage areas, as well as flooding of rural roads, small creeks and streams.
Watches and warnings. a hurricane warning is in effect from flagler beach south to florida city, which includes all of the east central Florida coastal counties, and also lake okeechobee. An inland hurricane wind warning is in effect for okeechobee, osceola, orange, lake inland volusia and seminole counties. A flood watch is in effect through Sunday for all of east central Florida.
Tornado impacts. isolated tornadoes are possible in some of the stronger outer rainbands and the threat will increase as the inner rainbands of frances move in later tonight.
Next update. the next hurricane local statement will be issued around 4 pm or sooner if conditions warrant.


Severe Weather Bulletin:

Issued at: 12:21 PM EDT 9/04/04, expires at: 12:00 PM EDT 9/5/04

This product refers to the st. Johns river.
For the st. Johns river near lake harney, moderate flooding is forecasted over the next five days with the potential for major flooding by late in the week. For the st. Johns river near sanford and near deland, minor flooding is forecasted over the next five days with the potential for moderate flooding late in the week.
Widespread heavy rainfall associated with hurricane frances will cause river levels to rise significantly over the middle st johns river basin over the next several days.
For the st. Johns river above lake harney, the latest stage was 6.4 feet at 10 am Saturday. The river is forecast to reach flood stage by early Monday, then a continued rise to 9.9 feet Thursday, which is 1.4 feet above flood stage. At 8.5 feet, water enters the first story of structures on prevatt road. Roads flood in the palm shores and mullet lake areas. At 9.0 feet, water enters the first story of homes on whitcomb road between crossover and lake harney road.
For the st. Johns river near sanford, the latest stage was 4.2 feet at 11 am Saturday. The river is forecast to reach flood stage by early Wednesday, then a continued rise to 6.2 feet Thursday, which is 0.4 feet above flood stage. At 6.2 feet, roads become flooded in stone island subdivision. Water comes up to pool enclosures and patios.
For the st. Johns river near deland, the latest stage was 2.3 feet at 10 am Saturday. The river is forecast to reach flood stage monday, then a continued rise to 4.6 feet Thursday, which is 0.4 feet above flood stage. At 4.5 feet, water moves into yards and approaches buildings around hontoon island. Docks flooded at hontoon island state park.
Persons along the st johns river should take measure to protect life and property from flooding. Do not drive cars through flooded areas, stay tuned to developments by listening to noaa weather radio.


Flood Watch:

Issued at: 6:00 PM EDT 9/3/04, expires at: 4:00 PM EDT 9/5/04

A Flood Watch is in effect for all of east central Florida through Sunday,
Significant Flooding Likely with hurricane frances,
The flood watch is in effect for volusia, Brevard, Seminole, Lake, Orange, Osceola, Indian River, Saint Lucie, Martin, and okeechobee counties.
Hurricane frances is large and slow moving with extensive rainfall in all quadrants. Hurricane frances is also much larger than Hurricane charley, Resulting In Much longer durations of rainfall, with upwards of 12 to 18 hours of rainfall occurring in some locations. These factors are all signs that significant flooding will occur as frances moves onshore Saturday then slowly northwest over the Florida peninsula. The flooding threat will begin to increase early Saturday as frances nears the coast. The flooding danger will persist through Sunday as frances slowly works northwest across the peninsula.
Widespread inland flooding is likely in areas where the heaviest Rainfall occurs. This includes low lying and poorly drained areas, but will also occur in areas not typically as susceptible to Flooding, Due To The long duration of heavy rains occurring on ground that is already nearly saturated.
The flooding impacts will also occur along lakes, Streams, And Along the st johns river in east central Florida, Where Significant rises are expected to occur over the next several days. River levels approaching record stages may occur.
Wide areas of flooding in east central Florida will also make driving very dangerous. If you cannot see the road or its line markings do not drive your vehicle through the water. The water depth may be too great to allow your car to cross safely. Only two feet of water can make most vehicles buoyant and prone to being swept away. Vehicles caught in rising water should be abandoned quickly.
Persons in east central Florida should take necessary measures to protect life and property from flooding associated with frances. Be ready to take quick action if flooding is observed or a flood warning is issued.

 

[Tim G]

Hurricane Francis Atlantic Position

Image = 75 Mins. Delay

 

[Mary Poppins]

Well, Frances is currently stalled off the coast of Florida and the eye is tightening up. That could translate into "no good" for the state. It seems like she's trying to strengthen. It has been windy here (West Orange County...20 mintues from WDW) all day and just started raining. I'm guessing this is from the outer bands. I'll try to update every now and then as long as I have power. Everyone else stay safe. :wave: