Honestly, I don't belive ANY type of simulator will be as popular 5 years after it opens. Even Soarin' will suffer, as amazing as it is, Mission: SPACE has proved to me that any type of simulator doesn't have very good "re-rideability."
Okay, let's take a look at what makes a successful ride. It's not just the thrill. Heck, even a silly game like RollerCoaster Tycoon will tell you that. And Tony Baxter said that. You aim for only the thrill, you're doomed. Simulators do this. They only aim for the thrill. A ONE TIME THRILL. Thank goodness the films can be changed out. But even when you change out a film, it still never has the same punch as when it first opens. Soarin' may get a new film. That's good. That may save it. But my point is, you can't have thrill without re-rideability. Case in point? Indiana Jones Adventure versus, say, Star Tours. Indy is by far more popular. Of course, it is newer. And yes compacity plays a role in this too, but a cheap thrill (even an expensive thrill) is no good without re-rideability. Mission: SPACE will suffer greatly because of this. Something really funny, is that Test Track is still more popular than Mission: SPACE. No matter what you do, unless it's an acutal ride, the simulator won't do it. Now mix the two together and you'll get Spiderman over at Universal.
Something odd about thrill-seekers... they don't come back until you have a new thrill ride... they won't come back to go on the same old rides they've already been on. There is a minority... but you don't seem to see that Thrill Seekers ARE the minority. And Disney can't aim towards them. Disney needs to aim much more in the middle, and balance the thrills with peaceful exhibits. Most people don't want to go to a park to get a headache all day. Trust me.