Yes, your point was understood - that you believe if people suddenly have a plastic bracelet instead of a plastic card suddenly they are going to forget about the dollar value of what they are spending and run around the parks willy nilly charging up a storm because it's so much easier to swipe your wrist and not a card.
It's such a miniscule amount of effort that it saves that I (and others, it seems) don't believe it's going to make that much difference, at all. And let's not forget - it's not like all guests will have these, either.
It's a novelty. Trust me, I understand payment systems and alternate payment devices, etc. - I work in the industry. In the real world, all of this alternate payment stuff has yet to shake out even though everyone and their brother has attempted it. The only reason it is even going to begin to work at Disney is that it's a relatively closed system they are working with.
What is just as likely to happen is that people actually start watching their spending MORE because of "how easy" it is. You are talking about taking an entirely unique payment method that will actually in many cases put consumers on guard. At least a room key is something that looks like a credit card, and people are familiar with that. Sure, the first day people might ooh and ahh, simply because of the novelty factor - but they will loose any effect over time, and certainly on subsequent trips (the type of people this is designed for, the Disney Mom's Blog Brigade).
This notion that somehow people are going to increase their spending by anything measurable misses the one key - consumers (and Americans in general) are EXTREMELY suspicious of new financial devices. People are scared crapless about identity theft. Now, on these very boards I have explained to people how this device does not really open you up to any more financial privacy concerns than any other payment device, but you will never, ever convince the average person about the token system it must use, their paranoia is unmatched. Which brings me to...
The people who don't already use a KTTW charge option are the same people that will opt out of the charge option in this system, and only use it for park entry/etc.
There are many valid (and not so valid) reasons not to do so - like the fact that your protection is greatly reduced by having Disney do one big charge off at the end. You are going simply on Disney's (a private company) records on what you spent, and trusting that they will take care of any fraudulent charges. The law doesn't protect you in the same ways as if you made all those individual charges on your credit card.
But most people won't think that far into it, a lot simply will worry about "what if someone copies my bracelet" or "what if I stand too close to the register behind the person in line behind me, can I accidentally get charged", etc - which are really not going to happen, but you just can't explain that to most people.
The one overriding emotion consumers have right now over alternate payment devices is fear. I mean, look at the threads here over the past year or two about it. We tend to have more educated folk here than the average Disney consumer (or site, LOL) and yet still people didn't/don't trust it. And most of them don't feel some huge burden by having to reach into a secured pocket or other place on their person to get their card to swipe.
Basically, the only demand for this product is from Disney, based on some internal "needs", that were likely presented like...
I have no doubt that's exactly what happened. That's the same type of corporate mis-think that has brought a lot of other changes to Disney Parks. I mean, this is the same company that somehow convinced itself to build DCA in..CA, and thought that was a good idea (which is why it's now turning into DHS-West, in everything but name).
Your point seems to be that, out of the subset of Disney Park guests who will ever even get a bracelet, the further subset of those that choose to give it charging privileges is somehow going to measurably increase revenue because people are so stupid they are going to spend more by using a bracelet than a card.
The entire benefit of this new system is weighed entirely on Disney going after the folks they already have captured. That's the saddest part. It's the biggest capital investment on this coast, and for consumers the only benefits are: the super-super lazy won't have to get their charge card or room key out of their pockets to spend money on superfluous crap, they won't have to have paper fastpasses anymore, and they can book some of those fast passes months in advance - something itself that is lunacy to anyone besides Disney Park Moms, because we forget that in the real world most people don't make reservations for every meal out (or even most of them) and even in places like NYC and LA where people do make reservations the notion of booking a meal - in a THEME PARK - six months in advance is sheer insanity.
The only other benefit we have heard about would be that Mickey would know your name and be able to say it. Supposedly, I haven't actually heard that this is the case. And while yeah, that's cool and all - again, Universal has been doing it since 1990 on ET.
So that's the sum of the value to us. The rest of the value is solely in Disney's court - tracking you throughout the parks to, yet again, try to find ways to further entice you buy crap, somehow hoping that guest spending will increase because people are so stupid they will forget there is real money attached to the bracelet significantly over when they swipe a card, and to reduce staff for reservations by phone or in park by having people go online to do so.
That's your billion dollars, man. It's a whole lot of nothing. And yes, their IT infrastructure was creaky - but mostly because it was let to fester (like TDO typically lets everything go until it's too late, from maintenance on down) and because they wanted to use it for things never intended. And the entire thing is only based on a subset of guests to begin with. Most importantly, IT systems should not even be on the public's radar - they are supposed to be invisible - but since it's the only real change at WDW in forever we sit here and talk about it. The most "exciting" thing going on the past few years. It's excruciating.
So yeah, Disney is getting this for a billion dollars. That's their figure, not mine. And Universal is geting Hotgwarts Express, Gringotts, just got Transformers and a new Springfield, and who the heck knows what else coming down the pike. As a consumer, I can tell you which one attracts me more...
In the end, even if you are correct and somehow people forget all sense, and immediately trust and love this new payment system (those that actually will be entitled to use it), yay! Disney has added a few small points to the bottom line of how much crap they sell (as you say, it's not going to give some crazy number like 20%, maybe a percent or two). Exciting! And...while expensive, the "easy" way out - at least for bean counters. Milking those you are already milking for more.
The true problem is, Disney relies on "focus group" crap and picks the wrong groups to focus. I have no doubt a bunch of Disney Mom's oohhhed and ahhhed over the thought of a bracelet to manage their vacation. (How fun! Does it come in different colors? By DisneyDaughter would love fushia, and my Disney Son would love cammo! Disney Husband doesn't wear bracelets, though - can you make a pin or something else, too? OOOH! Pins! Can you make a special pin at each park for bracelet holders only???)
The thought that Disney is somehow saturated to the point where this is the only way to increase revenue is absurd, and Universal's uptick has confirmed it. Even the "parents with 2.5 children between ages 5 and 13" aren't choosing to come because very little has changed and there hasn't been a true headliner attraction at Disney built since the 1990's. Disney just doesn't want to believe that the way to increase guests is to have headliner attractions that make, well, headlines in the "real world". Things that people must come visit.
This is because of the AK paradigm - AK didn't increase WDW attendance, it just spread it out. Which ignores the fact that yeah, because the public wasn't dying for it to begin with, and even today suffers identity issues among them, and there is nothing terribly singularly exciting about it to point out. Instead of realizing it was the product, not the market - here we are, with no real capital investment since, except in behind the scenes IT crap that amounts to a hill of beans in actually bringing guests to Orlando and to WDW.
And no, no stupid little bracelet is going to make anyone book a vacation, which is why this entire thing rests on going back to the well instead of digging new trenches.