Spirited News, Observations & Thoughts IV

[Tom Morrow]

Volume has to factor in too. I've heard on these boards that some rides at WDW have a very high percentage (as high as 90%) of capacity available via FP. That makes for a lot more FP returns. Probably less than 20% of guests at Universal stay on property so the volume never gets that high.

Yep, 80-90% is the norm when there is demand (meaning, the ride isn't a walk-on or nearly one and there is a steady flow of Fastpasses returning (which, if there is a demand, is always).

 

[doctornick]

I remember @ParentsOf4 had a few posts where he had a similar theory to your tier system for FP+ for the resorts. Then since this is the new perk for staying on property they eliminate EMHs altogether and save a bunch on labor costs.

I actually think that making FP+ resort (and AP pass) exclusive would make a ton of sense. For starters, it would decrease the amount of Fastpasses used (as happened with Universal when they switched models to an everyone gets it to being limited to hotel guests/add on purchasers) which will decrease Standby line length and help everyone.

Secondly, since it would be part of resort stays only (and AP guests, who already are familiar with WDW), it would be easier to implement because it would be linked to the hotel reservation and would be fewer people who need to be educated in the process. Disney would know when you are staying in town and can suggest (or even pre-reserve) ride itineraries. Also, it would be easier to educate/help out people who are staying onsite since they are in constant contact with CMs who could potentially answer questions about the program and promote it, unlike off site guests.

There's the obvious benefit for Disney since it could encourage resort stays relative to off site stays. And if it is more FP+ for more expensive hotels then you can also get being upgrading and paying more.

 

[doctornick]

Oh, yeah. I think EMHs are totally on their way out. Since Disney went to the morning & night EMHs, they haven't been a big perk, anyway...IMO.

I wouldn't be surprised if they keep the morning EMH and get rid of the evening ones. Morning EMH work well since the parks are open to some degree anyway (pre-opening food reservations for example) and it is only an hour.

 

[ParentsOf4]

"Very expensive" and "in some cases costing a lot"...all words that are music to the ears of TDO.

I remember @ParentsOf4 had a few posts where he had a similar theory to your tier system for FP+ for the resorts. Then since this is the new perk for staying on property they eliminate EMHs altogether and save a bunch on labor costs.

Way back when we first started learning about FP+, I posted some ideas of how Disney might use it to solve their occupancy rate problem at their Deluxe Resorts. Occupancy rates at the Deluxe Resort are down. "Guests" don't like spending upwards of $500/night for what's essentially an ordinary hotel room. Go figure.

The Deluxe Resorts are huge money makers. They have enormous mark-ups. If a Deluxe Resort is at about 60% occupancy, any rooms sold above that are almost pure profit. It behooves Disney to get those rooms occupied.

FP+ could be designed to be a tiered system with those at Deluxe Resorts getting more FP+ selections. However, Disney probably won't do that because they are trying to avoid Universal's problem.

At Universal, onsite Deluxe Resort guests receive nearly unlimited Express Passes. Pretty much only WWOHP is excluded from Express Pass and Universal offers early opening to onsite guests for that. As a result, onsite guests can completely experience both Universal theme parks and in a relaxing manner in 2 days. Spend 3 nights at a Universal resort and you've had a vacation that is both complete and relaxing.

Disney wants its guests, including its Deluxe Resort guests, staying longer, spending more on everything. If Deluxe Resort guests received more FP+ selections per day, they could complete their vacations sooner. Disney doesn't want that. They want all guests to have limited FP+ experiences booked for every day of their vacations with the hope that guests will stay longer if they want more FP+ selections.

The sickest part is Disney wants more Standby lines. Disney effectively wants people standing in line more, hoping they will come to the conclusion that the only way to avoid the worst Standby lines is to take longer vacations in order to get more FP+ selections.

As I've mentioned in previous posts, Disney's goal is not to get more new guests into the parks. It's to get the guests they already have (who are the best candidates to be able to afford what now has become a very expensive WDW vacation) to spend more.

 

[PeterAlt]

I feel like this thread is unraveling into a 60 Minutes report. Have your answers prepared in advanced. Anticipate the questions they'll going to ask. Make sure there are no holes in our theory that they can try to chip away at. They should be able to reach the same conclusions we're making by showing them where to look....

 

[Goofyernmost]

They aren't just my experiences. That's why I solicited unbiased feedback from a diverse audience to illustrate for you its not just 'my experiences'. From single guys, to moms with kids, to dads with kids, from single women.. all of them have said 'good' so far in my unscientific survey. Value is always in the eye of the beholder. It doesn't take a lot of sleuthing to conclude FP is valued by guests.. people don't use it just because they be screwed if otherwise. They use it because they appreciate the benefit. Even if you thought they didn't get ahead in waits.. the point of not having to be trapped in a line is valued to many people.

It's not snake oil.. and people's actions speak far greater than their words when it comes to putting down FP.

Like any statistic, it all depends on how it was asked. It is no more unbiased then my observations. I never said that everyone was unhappy. I said that a large group don't like it. Your circle of friends would not be the cross section that would be needed to declare it loved by all. I respect your opinions and I don't deny that what you are saying, based on your cross section of friends, that people with FP's in hand are happy. I will say it one more time, it's not those people that I am concerned about...it's those that didn't get one, didn't know they were available, didn't get there before they ran out or whatever possible multitude of reasons there are, felt only anger and frustration. It doesn't matter who is right or who is wrong, many of them still will not be back.

I can tell by your responses that you are focused on the happy, happy, joy, joy aspect of actually using a FP. I am focusing on those that did not get that chance and spent hours in a line or two watching people walk by them. As long as we have those two different points of perspective we will never reach agreement. So I would like to request that we respectfully move on. How about those Red Sox?

 

[ford91exploder]

Like any statistic, it all depends on how it was asked. It is no more unbiased then my observations. I never said that everyone was unhappy. I said that a large group don't like it. Your circle of friends would not be the cross section that would be needed to declare it loved by all. I respect your opinions and I don't deny that what you are saying, based on your cross section of friends, that people with FP's in hand are happy. I will say it one more time, it's not those people that I am concerned about...it's those that didn't get one, didn't know they were available, didn't get there before they ran out or whatever possible multitude of reasons there are, felt only anger and frustration. It doesn't matter who is right or who is wrong, many of them still will not be back.

I can tell by your responses that you are focused on the happy, happy, joy, joy aspect of actually using a FP. I am focusing on those that did not get that chance and spent hours in a line or two watching people walk by them. As long as we have those two different points of perspective we will never reach agreement. So I would like to request that we respectfully move on. How about those Red Sox?

A real TEST of MM+ would have been to require testers to specify their choices 60 days out, Apply artificial constraints on ride availability ie no 'Mountain' FP+ available say 3 hours into 60 day window. For the truly cursed they would only be offered FP+ for 'A ticket' attractions for entire trip.

This would be a more realistic scenario and I'm pretty sure this would lead to trip cancellations etc, The problem with the current test is the guests are getting to test only the positive aspects of the system and data is being created to backstop TDO's assertion that this will drive guest satisfaction and make money.

Having been involved in many test programs as a test architect tests need to be designed to BREAK the system and stress it to its limits. Current MM+ tests are not doing that, I expect when this system goes live it will go BOOM in both the technical and PR domains.

 

[Goofyernmost]

A real TEST of MM+ would have been to require testers to specify their choices 60 days out, Apply artificial constraints on ride availability ie no 'Mountain' FP+ available say 3 hours into 60 day window. For the truly cursed they would only be offered FP+ for 'A ticket' attractions for entire trip.

This would be a more realistic scenario and I'm pretty sure this would lead to trip cancellations etc, The problem with the current test is the guests are getting to test only the positive aspects of the system and data is being created to backstop TDO's assertion that this will drive guest satisfaction and make money.

Having been involved in many test programs as a test architect tests need to be designed to BREAK the system and stress it to its limits. Current MM+ tests are not doing that, I expect when this system goes live it will go BOOM in both the technical and PR domains.

Are you also a card carrying member of the 'Nation?

Not that I disagree necessarily with your post, I'm just having a problem understanding how it relates to my post. Oh, well... not all that important, just curious.

 

[ford91exploder]

So pretty much they will be copying the entire Universal model. Universal offers front of the line access only to guests staying on site now, but once their value resort opens they won't be offering it to those guests just the ones staying in a deluxe resort. I'm agreeing with @willtravel and @doctornick. If Disney tried this at WDW there would be a whole lot of screaming.

Yes, But the iron law of economics rules, Why should Disney/Universal NOT offer special included perks for guests paying for their Premium accomodations all hotel chains do this, When I stay at a Hilton in one of their executive or club level accomodations I have access to a Concierge and the 'executive lounge' Someone booking the same hotel through hotwire does not get this they dont pay as much either.

If you have the cash you can skip ALL the lines at Disney by purchasing a VIP tour at $125/Hr or so, I fail to see the issues if someone staying at the value hotels at 99/Night is not offered the same level of perks that someone who is paying $300-800 night at a Deluxe,

Disney should perhaps offer some of the perks as a paid upgrade so that people can decide if the extra access is worth it to them.

 

[WDWDad13]

Yes, But the iron law of economics rules, Why should Disney/Universal NOT offer special included perks for guests paying for their Premium accomodations all hotel chains do this, When I stay at a Hilton in one of their executive or club level accomodations I have access to a Concierge and the 'executive lounge' Someone booking the same hotel through hotwire does not get this they dont pay as much either.

If you have the cash you can skip ALL the lines at Disney by purchasing a VIP tour at $125/Hr or so, I fail to see the issues if someone staying at the value hotels at 99/Night is not offered the same level of perks that someone who is paying $300-800 night at a Deluxe,

Disney should perhaps offer some of the perks as a paid upgrade so that people can decide if the extra access is worth it to them.

I think I agree with you on this. This might also be a good way as well to provide additional benefits for frequent annual passholder and DVC member visits without really any extra cost to Disney

 

[alphac2005]

Yes, But the iron law of economics rules, Why should Disney/Universal NOT offer special included perks for guests paying for their Premium accomodations all hotel chains do this, When I stay at a Hilton in one of their executive or club level accomodations I have access to a Concierge and the 'executive lounge' Someone booking the same hotel through hotwire does not get this they dont pay as much either.

If you have the cash you can skip ALL the lines at Disney by purchasing a VIP tour at $125/Hr or so, I fail to see the issues if someone staying at the value hotels at 99/Night is not offered the same level of perks that someone who is paying $300-800 night at a Deluxe,

Disney should perhaps offer some of the perks as a paid upgrade so that people can decide if the extra access is worth it to them.

It boils down to the Disney model (across the board) is completely convoluted in essentially taking more from your most loyal customers and instead of giving them more for less, they take more and give them less per dollar spent.

Universal (Loews) does exactly this. After staying for just a few trips, their rewards card gives you everything from free Internet, room upgrades, free health club access, and late day checkout.

Just like you, if I'm paying $500 to stay at a deluxe resort, I expect that I'm going to have more perks than that of someone at the value resort. My guess is that their market research shows that when you take the value resorts and maybe add certain options to the price (possibly FP+), the consumer then is insulted that the real price is actually significantly higher than advertised and put off by it along with the notion that different tiers get different standard features of their resort stay. That gets back to the reality that different price points afford different features, but I also think that a lot of people see that they are paying overinflated prices (All-Star as an example) to stay on Disney property versus elsewhere and sure as heck believe that they should get all these perks because that's what they're essentially paying for, not luxurious rooms because there are plenty of places off property at half the price with a better room.

 

[Travel Junkie]

Disney wants its guests, including its Deluxe Resort guests, staying longer, spending more on everything. If Deluxe Resort guests received more FP+ selections per day, they could complete their vacations sooner. Disney doesn't want that. They want all guests to have limited FP+ experiences booked for every day of their vacations with the hope that guests will stay longer if they want more FP+ selections.

The sickest part is Disney wants more Standby lines. Disney effectively wants people standing in line more, hoping they will come to the conclusion that the only way to avoid the worst Standby lines is to take longer vacations in order to get more FP+ selections.

As I've mentioned in previous posts, Disney's goal is not to get more new guests into the parks. It's to get the guests they already have (who are the best candidates to be able to afford what now has become a very expensive WDW vacation) to spend more.

That has to be one of the riskiest business models I have ever heard of. Hey let's alienate our customer base into spending more time and money with us. That says a lot of about how the company is run and how it views their customers.

 

[ford91exploder]

It boils down to the Disney model (across the board) is completely convoluted in essentially taking more from your most loyal customers and instead of giving them more for less, they take more and give them less per dollar spent.

Universal (Loews) does exactly this. After staying for just a few trips, their rewards card gives you everything from free Internet, room upgrades, free health club access, and late day checkout.

Just like you, if I'm paying $500 to stay at a deluxe resort, I expect that I'm going to have more perks than that of someone at the value resort. My guess is that their market research shows that when you take the value resorts and maybe add certain options to the price (possibly FP+), the consumer then is insulted that the real price is actually significantly higher than advertised and put off by it along with the notion that different tiers get different standard features of their resort stay. That gets back to the reality that different price points afford different features, but I also think that a lot of people see that they are paying overinflated prices (All-Star as an example) to stay on Disney property versus elsewhere and sure as heck believe that they should get all these perks because that's what they're essentially paying for, not luxurious rooms because there are plenty of places off property at half the price with a better room.

Of course you need a significant baseline advantage over 'off-property' that goes without saying, But if Deluxe accomodations come with more perks than Value I don't see that as problem either.

At UNI where the new value resort will probably have rooms in the sub-100 dollar range but it will not come with the unlimited FOTL pass it will probably have some FOTL feature like a limited number of FOTL vouchers, this is simply speculation on my part but the full FOTL will be a perk used by UNI to drive customers to its Deluxe resorts. There will probably be whinging about this by UNI fans but why should UNI not encourage customers to be 'high value' customers.

Disney is making a fundamental mistake by assuming its Pixie Dust addicts will remain pixie dust addicts and they can continue to remove value from their experience.

Example I had been Hertz Presidents Circle for years, Last year Hertz really started to fail instead of car classes I had reserved (presidents circle members ENTITLED to a 2 class upgrade) I would get downgrades like Midsize to Subcompact or reserve a SUV and get a minivan, But first time renters in my party would get upgrades to SUV's etc,

At the time National was doing a Status Match so If you were PC they would make you executive elite, Took this and National makes me feel like a valued customer, They say thanks for loyalty and MEAN it, They make make my rental experience a pleasure and they act like they WANT my business.

Disney is Hertz now

 

[ford91exploder]

That has to be one of the riskiest business models I have ever heard of. Hey let's alienate our customer base into spending more time and money with us. That says a lot of about how the company is run and how it views their customers.

Yep, Disney just expects that people will stay longer to get 'all' the rides, I have a PAP I'm seriously considering not renewing, I'm DVC but all that means is I have a base in Orlando and there's a lot to do in Central FL besides Disney and UNI,

Bought an AP to KSC as DW and I are both geeks and we could spend 3-4 days there easily especially if they have launches scheduled.

 

[flynnibus]

Like any statistic, it all depends on how it was asked. It is no more unbiased then my observations

Depends on how it was asked? I already showed you how it was asked.

I never said that everyone was unhappy. I said that a large group don't like it. Your circle of friends would not be the cross section that would be needed to declare it loved by all. I respect your opinions and I don't deny that what you are saying, based on your cross section of friends, that people with FP's in hand are happy. I will say it one more time, it's not those people that I am concerned about...it's those that didn't get one, didn't know they were available, didn't get there before they ran out or whatever possible multitude of reasons there are, felt only anger and frustration

So you believe of the 13 people who have replied to my query so far... none of them ever missed out on getting a FP???... so they couldn't possibly reflect the majority demographic you insist is out there. Nevermind the statistical anomaly you propose that by taking a diverse random sample.. I somehow have missed the majority that exists.

You can lead a horse to water, but obviously you can't make them drink.

 

[ParentsOf4]

That has to be one of the riskiest business models I have ever heard of. Hey let's alienate our customer base into spending more time and money with us. That says a lot of about how the company is run and how it views their customers.

You mean charging $500/night for an ordinary hotel room or $60 for an ordinary buffet doesn't already alienate their customer base?

Oh wait, it doesn't!

That's corporate Disney's thinking.

 

[alphac2005]

At UNI where the new value resort will probably have rooms in the sub-100 dollar range but it will not come with the unlimited FOTL pass it will probably have some FOTL feature like a limited number of FOTL vouchers, this is simply speculation on my part but the full FOTL will be a perk used by UNI to drive customers to its Deluxe resorts. There will probably be whinging about this by UNI fans but why should UNI not encourage customers to be 'high value' customers.

From what I've seen, room rates at Cabana Bay at UNI will be in the $130-$170 range per night, which is a 6 person suite type of setup. Universal Express Passes will not be included, but from what I was told, it'll be an add-on.

 

[fosse76]

No, simply the standby line would put less people through per hour.. and the wait time would climb to the point where people were no longer willing to get in line and then it would stabalize... just like it does today. People do not get in line based on the people/hr of the line.. they get in or not based on the expected wait.

The difference is you have more need to get that FP because less people will be getting through standby. If FP is still too scarce.. then SB waits will increase as people become more desperate to ride.

Exactly. See TSMM for the real world example of this scenario.

 

[Sue_Vongello]

In reply to all the commentary about people on the board being bullied, or personal attacks, or negative or whatever ...

The problem as I see it is Disney, not the posters ... I mean, basically TDO has done nothing to the parks, let maintenance go, invest too much money in a project they won't give us clear details on but in reality gives us no real benefit ... basically ... the problem is everyone here now comes to the board and is annoyed, tempers are up and it's only natural that in that mind frame we start attacking each other.

The sad part is, most of us are on this board because we love Disney, we are on the same team but we're basically killing each other with "friendly fire" ... because we're so irritated at Disney.

My point is the irritation, annoyance, and negative feelings we have shouldn't be taken too personally, because remember we are all in the same boat ... we want WDW to get better, even if right now there appears to be no light at the end of that tunnel.

 

[fosse76]

UNI handles the merge better, As the EP people are merged into the line in car sized groups, where disney stops the standby line and lets in a huge block of FP users so the standby line stops at UNI the standby lines never stop moving. This is why EP probably does not create such bad feelings.

Also, there's greater visibility with Universal's Express Pass. Since it's a pay option for day guests, there are signs EVERYWHERE advertising it and what it does. There isn't any doubt that guests know what it is and that it costs extra. At Disney, since FP is free, it doesn't have the major advertising visibility that Express Pass does at Universal, so guests aren't as knowledgeable as to what it is, where to get it, or how much it costs. So naturally guests get upset when they see people getting an advantage over them and they don't know why. And as said above, the standby lines at Universal don't come to a screeching halt because of Express Pass.

FP is really nothing more than a reservation system, with Disney micromanaging the throughput at each FP attraction. Neither Six Flags nor Universal have anywhere near the standby line halts the Disney does (though Six Flags does come close, but I believe that to be intentional to "force" people to buy a Flash Pass). Because those other park chains don't micromanage distribution and return times, there isn't a constant flux of pass users to halt the standby line. It's clear to mee that Disney desparately wants to charge for FP, but is too afraid of the PR nightmare that might result from the blogger backlash. NGE is clearly designed with that in mind.