Spirited News & Observations II -- NGE/Baxter

[WDW1974]

Reading from some elements of the fandom that are happy about the situation with Baxter and calling it "Marc Davis' revenge", Very sad!

There are all sorts of fans.

Tony was an imperfect Imagineer and he is a flawed human being. But when fanbois who are in their teens or 20s start talking about Marc Davis, it's almost like when kids who were born in the 90s try and talk about Horizons or the Orange Bird etc ... they just don't have the perspective at all.

 

[PhotoDave219]

I am very familar with the work of Disney's research department and it largely is a joke. It is designed to never get to the truth (sorta like talking to a Wall Street banker with his lawyers present).

You never get anything that you didn't want to get to begin with *with one notable exception I can think of ...

I used to ask those questions. Theyre phrased in some specific manners....

 

[stlphil]

Let me try and unite the two topics of this thread in a single post.

I actually met Tony once (see, that puts us on a first-name basis) in the mid to late 90s at the old Disney Gallery in NOS (as an aside, really miss that space). He was selling some artwork on the day we happened to visit the park, and was chatting with the guests in the gallery. It wasn't crowded and he was very gracious, so my little party had a good long time with him.

One of the many things we talked about was how imagineering was trying to find a way to charge for rides again on a per-ride basis. We asked if he meant like how it had been with the old ticket books, and he said yes in a general way, but it would be with a completely different mechanism since the ticket books were awkward and cumbersome. It was obvious that even then imagineering was fighting a losing battle to assign specific revenue to building new rides and attractions, and this was the idea they had to combat this.

In retrospect I think his mentioning it was a trial balloon to gauge our reactions, but I don't think we reacted how he hoped. Frankly, we were all aghast at the idea (which is why I remember it so clearly after all these years). We all liked the all-you-can-eat buffet model for experiencing attractions, and hated the thought of going back to the bad old days of tickets for individual rides. Tony tried to explain that the mechanism wouldn't really be like ticket books, but we weren't convinced and he quickly changed the subject.

Fast forward to today. Disney management still can't/won't/doesn't want to assign revenue values to rides. With NextGen they have a different type of capital expenditures that they probably will tie directly to revenue or profits, which must make the bean counters that are in charge very happy (assuming that there really are new profits tied to NextGen, which in my mind is debatable as the costs escalate out of control and the reaction to NextGen is tepid at best). What is ironic is that NextGen will provide a mechanism for easily going to an a la carte model for charging for attractions if Disney decides to do so, but if they do it would be for a completely different reason than why Tony was proposing this years ago.

I have my doubts about a general pay for rides system. Paying $90 to get in now is a lot, but you can convince yourself that you will do a lot with your day in the park since you don't know in advance exactly how much you will get to do and just go with the flow. But if I have to pay $10-$15 to go on each E-ticket (and it would be at least that much), I will think twice before going on each ride and be much less satisfied overall with my day due to being conflicted this way.

However, as others have suggested here, there are various upsell opportunities for individual rides that Disney may try instead and that may generate new revenues without going to a full a la carte system. Others may have a different breaking point, but I think for me that even if only this happens and becomes prevalent my Disney World days may come to an end.

Finally, to come full circle I just want to say that even in our brief chat Tony's passion for the parks and knowledge of what makes them great came through loud and clear. I'm very glad I had a chance to meet him, and I'm sorry he got such a raw deal at WDI as we are all the poorer for it. I wish Mr. Baxter all the best going forward.

 

[ChrisFL]

I know I'm not the brightest bulb on the tree, but, I still cannot understand how this guarantee's more money (aka, more profit). It must have some magical thing happening that I am unable to comprehend.

I know that they somehow will be able to zero in on what we, as guest, do, see and buy, but how does that exactly convert into more money other then through inventory control. They can put all the wrist bands on me that they want, it isn't going to change my current spending habits. Does it create mind control? I can't even see how requiring expensive on-site lodging to get full benefits is going to help. Again, I would just stop going if I felt disadvantaged.

Since 2001 I have spent $35000.00 on vacations. 95% of them have been to Disney. I spent that on my terms and my discretion. That is what I budgeted and what I have spent. There is no more in the pot. If I cannot go to WDW, for example, on my terms and my budget...I can't go or won't go! If they lose that 35K who is going to make that up over the next ten years? How does it make more profit.

It would not be to their benefit or history to be willing to share with outsiders what is spent, on what , when and how much, so sharing that information would be competitively signing their death sentence by selling the secrets that Disney needs to maintain their dominance. So, again...where is the extra profit going to come from?

I like this post because I've been wondering the same things, and not just about Disney, but companies in general...when go through so much trouble for data mining activities, are they actually doing those next steps to really pay off the money spent to collect the data?

To use a broader example. Let's say Disney finds out that most of the mouse ears purchased are from females, ages 26-35. Does that mean that they'll try to more strictly cater to those women by offering mouse ears for them? But wait, what if they're buying for their kids? How would knowing what the parent bought help them to data mine for that? And if they do decide to start catering to that specific demographic more, are the others going to buy less of those items since they're not as interesting.

That example could be way off base, I'm sure some people with more expertise can explain that better. But I do think that Disney is falling into the trap (mouse trap?) of data mining to pull out numbers, so they can somehow implement systems that somehow will make them more profits, better organized and somehow ignore any other possible downsides, AND completely ignoring the emotional impact those changes might have.

 

[Longhairbear]

We have friends over who are hugely knowledgable about all things IT, software, hardware etc., and are huge DLR fans. They had no idea about MM+ etc., and as I wanted their true opinion as professionals, and fans, I tried to explain it all without bias.
The response was about FP+ as a fan. They didn't like it so much. As it now stands in their opinion, is that FP in general es off those who don't have one. They didn't like FP going away, and replaced by FP+. They did think FP+ might make standby lines shorter, but hated having to book FP+ ahead of time. They agreed that FP+ might be all gone when they want them, and hated the choices of parade over fireworks, over attraction.
On a professional level they were amazed that Disney was not already tracking and datamining to this extent already, and surmised it was inevitable.

 

[John]

If Disney ever went back to a "a la cart" system to pay as you go. I would be absolutely done with Disney. How can you possibly charge to ride attractions that are broken....missing elements etc.? One of the great things about going to WDW and other Disney parks is that you can somewhat budget your vacation. That aspect would go out the window......So would my visits. One good thing about it......it would make lines shorter. Who in thier right mind would pay $10 to wait in line for two hrs multiple times a day? I know whats comming next, "thats the way it used to be" well the park experience was much different also. Everything was about quality and all about show. Now....not so much. What Disney has lost sight of is that guest are very happy and willing to pay for quality. What Disney banks on now is selling mystique....they sell on what the parks used to be. They now relying on the Disney name as thier commodity...no longer relying on giving a quality experience that you can not find anywhere else.

Is Uni watching this? You betcha! They are watching very intently....IMO they are happy with Disney being the leader in this new way of doing buisness. Let them make the mistakes....They can stand back and watch if it is a success or if it fails without investing one penny. All the while investing in a model that seems to be working right now.

I have thought about this over and over again....How does this program increase my park experience? Isnt that what really matters most? Someone tell me exactly how this will happen? Some of you have expressed excitement in useing the system. Which is nice to see. But from what I can tell the test are only for a limited portion of the program. We havnt heard about any testing in the FP+ pre-booking portion of the program. Anybody who has been apart of the testing have information on exactly what has been tested? There has been testing already and it is funny no one here has commented on it as of yet? Also the test stage is very far from the program being implemented resort wide. IMO it may be far from the infancy stage but very far from being rolled out completely.

 

[wdwmagic]

Also the test stage is very far from the program being implemented resort wide. IMO it may be far from the infancy stage but very far from being rolled out completely.

They are really close to full roll-out. What they have done:

1. Full resort wide WiFi deployment
2. Touch to Enter installed in all hotel rooms and being used
3. Touch to Enter turnstiles installed at all parks and being used - but not yet complete (not far off however)
4. RFID Touch to Pay installed at all registers resort wide and being used with KTW cards
5. FP+ readers installed at all FP+ attractions resort-wide
6. My Disney Experience web site and apps deployed and in use
7. MagicBands soon to be in guest testing

A heck of a lot has been achieved so far. My feeling on this is that we will have full roll out of the entire MyMagic+ system before the end of 2013.

 

[ParentsOf4]

I still cannot understand how this guarantee's more money (aka, more profit). It must have some magical thing happening that I am unable to comprehend.

I know that they somehow will be able to zero in on what we, as guest, do, see and buy, but how does that exactly convert into more money other then through inventory control. They can put all the wrist bands on me that they want, it isn't going to change my current spending habits. Does it create mind control? I can't even see how requiring expensive on-site lodging to get full benefits is going to help. Again, I would just stop going if I felt disadvantaged.

Companies advertise because, despite all protests to the contrary, advertising works. However, advertising is expensive. For Disney, it's very expensive. Disney spends almost $2B (yes Billion) in advertising. Compare that annual budget with NextGen's total cost spent over several years.

Iger loves to use the word "leverage". Essentially, leverage means figuring out how to realize more revenue from existing assets. Iger indicates that Disney has data suggesting they can leverage the parks to generate more revenue. Since leveraging is more focused on using existing assets rather than investing in new ones, Iger's talking about increasing WDW revenue without investing in WDW. Kinda bizarre since NextGen reportedly costs $1.5B but Wall Street loves the word "leverage" since it means, to them, "make more money without spending more money."

Iger doesn't view WDW the way we do. Iger views WDW as a source of revenue that costs money to operate. Iger wants to increase the amount of money Disney collects from WDW while simultaneously spending less to collect it.

Some time ago, I posted:

http://forums.wdwmagic.com/threads/...-starts-to-appear.857948/page-19#post-5268660

There are ways NextGen can help Disney's bottom line without data mining. To do so, Disney must take greater control over its WDW assets so it can identify ways to monetize them through price increases, turning "free" benefits (e.g. FP) into pay-to-play services, or upsales (i.e. spend more for "better" service). Beyond these ways, the data mining aspects of NextGen should allow Disney to optimize its considerable advertising budget.

 

[John]

They are really close to full roll-out. What they have done:

1. Full resort wide WiFi deployment
2. Touch to Enter installed in all hotel rooms and being used
3. Touch to Enter turnstiles installed at all parks and being used - but not yet complete (not far off however)
4. RFID Touch to Pay installed at all registers resort wide and being used with KTW cards
5. FP+ readers installed at all FP+ attractions resort-wide
6. My Disney Experience web site and apps deployed and in use
7. MagicBands soon to be in guest testing

A heck of a lot has been achieved so far. My feeling on this is that we will have full roll out of the entire MyMagic+ system before the end of 2013.

Good job Steve.....way to be on top of things....Thats why your the best. I knew some of this was out. But not at that scope. It looks like what has been on-line are things that is relatively easy to implement. I am still waiting on the FP+ system and how it will integrate with ADRs. How it effetcs the in park experience. Thats the real meat and potatoes. Any other aspect the average guest will give little thought to. Privacy concerns etc. will not even be remotely be a consideration to most guest. What will matter is if they can ride the attractions they want and how long they will have to wait. I really interested in the feedback we get. This programed has been discussed as much here then anything else in recent memory if not more so. Its been dissected and torn apart as much as we can standing on the outside looking in. It boils down to one thing. How will it effect my vacation?
Most if not ev erything you mentioned is nice and will remove a bit of annoyance but it will not enhance my vacation to a very minimal level. Other then getting thru the main gate faster....for myself, I dont see no advantages. Weather you are a proponent or against this program its success or lack thereof will determine the future of the park one way or another. No matter which way it goes it is a huge gamble for Disney....a 1 billion dollar + gamble. We are now on the eve of this thing comming on line.....ready or not here it comes.

 

[Darth Sidious]

Companies advertise because, despite all protests to the contrary, advertising works. However, advertising is expensive. For Disney, it's very expensive. Disney spends almost $2B (yes Billion) in advertising. Compare that annual budget with NextGen's total cost spent over several years.

Iger loves to use the word "leverage". Essentially, leverage means figuring out how to realize more revenue from existing assets. Iger indicates that Disney has data suggesting that they can leverage the parks to generate more revenue. Since leveraging is more focused on using existing assets rather than investing in new ones, Iger's talking about increasing WDW revenue without investing in WDW. Kinda bizarre since NextGen reportedly costs $1.5B but Wall Street loves the word "leverage" since it means, to them, "make more money without spending more money."

Iger doesn't view WDW the way we do. Iger views WDW as a source of revenue that costs money to operate. Iger wants to increase the amount of money Disney collects from WDW while simultaneously spending less to collect it.

Some time ago, I posted:

http://forums.wdwmagic.com/threads/...-starts-to-appear.857948/page-19#post-5268660

There are ways NextGen can help Disney bottom line without data mining. Beyond these ways, the data mining aspects of NextGen should allow Disney to optimize its considerable advertising budget. To do so, Disney must take greater control over its WDW assets so that it can identify ways to monetize them through price increases, turning "free" benefits (e.g. FP) into pay-to-play services, or upsales (i.e. spend more for "better" service).

Nailed it... Explained it better than I felt like doing via my iPhone.

 

[GoofGoof]

Simple. Attractions don't directly add to profits and NextGen does. Attractions add indirectly but it isn't as measurable as NextGen will be (if all goes as planned).

I have to disagree with you on that. I think about 98% of the people that go to WDW are there for the attractions.

We all go for the attractions, but since you don't pay per ride it's difficult to quantify the additional revenue from adding rides. For example, let's say they add RSR to DHS. DHS attendance goes up 10%. That seems great, but how much additional money was made? How many additional single day tickets did you sell? How many of these people would have bought a single day ticket at MK or EPCOT that day and instead bought at DHS? In that case you are net zero. No gain in revenue. With multi-day passes its even harder to quantify. How many people spend extra days at DHS instead of another park? Still no gain in revenue. Unless you raise prices and justify it by saying we added XYZ to the parks so prices are up it's not that easy to quantify. But you will have easy to identify direct costs for operating and maintaining the new ride. Any revenue gains would have to be above the added costs before you show a profit. Selling merchandise or food can be a little easier to quantify, but you still could be canabalizing your exisiting shops and restaurants. In the big picture adding new attractions should in theory keep guests coming back and maybe even add new guests, but it's not as easy as it seems to actually put a number to the financial gain.

NextGen on the other hand, if it works as expected, will have direct quantifiable financial benefits and some indirect ones as well. If they use data for direct advertising they will in theory be able to quantify additional sales due to this direct advertising. The indirect benefit of people spending more since it is just a waive of the wrist to buy things will be harder to quantify. The direct benefits of reducing costs by cutting EMHs and reducing cast members will be easy to quantify as well. If they don't maintain NextGen and the system stops working then any gains go away. If they don't maintain rides and effects don't work or they break completely what happens? According to the earnings call "attendance was up a hair".

 

[Disneyhead'71]

I think the pay-per-ride model will be the death of B,C Ticket attractions. There would be no ROI for them. And the lines for the headliners would be unmanageable. The ticket books worked because you got the A,B,C Tickets whether you wanted them or not. So people used them. A true a la carte system would be a disaster, unless they made things like the Enchanted Tiki Room free.

 

[GoofGoof]

I think the pay-per-ride model will be the death of B,C Ticket attractions. There would be no ROI for them. And the lines for the headliners would be unmanageable. The ticket books worked because you got the A,B,C Tickets whether you wanted them or not. So people used them. A true a la carte system would be a disaster, unless they made things like the Enchanted Tiki Room free.

Except for COP. I would gladly pay a dollar or whatever they charge for a B ticket for 20 minutes out of the sun in the A/C on a hot day in August.

I would not be a fan of a pay per ride system.

 

[flynnibus]

I think the pay-per-ride model will be the death of B,C Ticket attractions. There would be no ROI for them. And the lines for the headliners would be unmanageable. The ticket books worked because you got the A,B,C Tickets whether you wanted them or not. So people used them. A true a la carte system would be a disaster, unless they made things like the Enchanted Tiki Room free.

Ticket books were just a discount way of getting tickets - tickets were sold individually as well. It wasn't the ticket books themselves that forced people to ride the lesser attractions - but the idea the lesser rides were cheaper. The ticket model worked by deterring everyone from just riding the headliners exclusively through cost deterrent. Ticket books contributed to that by offering to buy tickets in bulk (including the lesser tickets) at a significant discount.

It worked then because a headliner was 2-3x the cost of the other attractions.

The same model would continue to apply today if you need to shape demand for different attractions.. you steer demand with pricing.

 

[alphac2005]

They already have the press release quotes made up using New Fantasyland and Tron Track to show all the 'new' reasons why WDW is a better value than ever before (even if it isn't!)

The first of multiple increases will hit before summer.

We were at Amway Center and saw the Magic and the Mavs a few weeks back and "Disney Parks" is one of the eight big sponsors of the Magic. So, there was a promo during a time-out for the FL resident play three days ticket and blaring from above "THE ALL-NEW RE-IMAGINED TEST TRACK." Booming with such pride, the new ride, ahem, new overlay. If that's all the got, they don't have much.

 

[WDW1974]

Just dropping in briefly on a lovely (not really!) Sunday in paradise ... because I want to go back to the whole tech aspect and the 'I trust Disney with my info' ... Well, I know there isn't a system out there that isn't hacker-proof and I sincerely doubt this one will be as you give Disney more and more information that information can wind up in the hands of anyone.

Don't know how many of you saw this week that the Bush family (including two ex-Presidents and the ex-Governor of the state of Florida) had their private email accounts hacked. I'm gonna go out on a very short limb here and suggest that the Bushes have significantly greater security than MM+ is going to have.

May be back later with more thoughts ...

Don't forget Walking Dead returns tonight!

 

[stlphil]

While I brought up the idea of a la carte pricing for attractions in my previous post, I only mentioned it to make a point because it was something Tony Baxter had brought up years ago, not because I think it is very likely to happen anytime soon, if ever.

One of the biggest deterrents to this may be something that didn't exist back in the days of ticket books: multiple parks (each with a different attraction mix).

For example, a relatively low general admission cost may make sense at the MK where there are lots of E-tickets, and rides in general, to buy tickets for. But what about a WS touring day at Epcot, where you may not ride much at all? A low general admission price would cost Disney revenue there, and we know that isn't going to happen. Each of the parks has such a different attraction mix and typical touring style that a single cost model for all of them wouldn't make sense. Of course they could change the pricing for each park, but that would have its own set of issues.

 

[Funmeister]

Just dropping in briefly on a lovely (not really!) Sunday in paradise ... because I want to go back to the whole tech aspect and the 'I trust Disney with my info' ... Well, I know there isn't a system out there that isn't hacker-proof and I sincerely doubt this one will be as you give Disney more and more information that information can wind up in the hands of anyone.

Don't know how many of you saw this week that the Bush family (including two ex-Presidents and the ex-Governor of the state of Florida) had their private email accounts hacked. I'm gonna go out on a very short limb here and suggest that the Bushes have significantly greater security than MM+ is going to have.

May be back later with more thoughts ...

Don't forget Walking Dead returns tonight!

Tidbit of useless info of the day: One of the main reasons (if not THE main reason) "Leave a Legacy" at Epcot abruptly ended sales was due to guests credit card numbers and personal info being hacked and compromised. They tried to re-tool it but ultimately decided to end the program.

My money is on Daryl Dixon....

 

[wdwmagic]

Just dropping in briefly on a lovely (not really!) Sunday in paradise ... because I want to go back to the whole tech aspect and the 'I trust Disney with my info' ... Well, I know there isn't a system out there that isn't hacker-proof and I sincerely doubt this one will be as you give Disney more and more information that information can wind up in the hands of anyone.

Don't know how many of you saw this week that the Bush family (including two ex-Presidents and the ex-Governor of the state of Florida) had their private email accounts hacked. I'm gonna go out on a very short limb here and suggest that the Bushes have significantly greater security than MM+ is going to have.

May be back later with more thoughts ...

Don't forget Walking Dead returns tonight!

Disney will hold very little information about a guest that is of a critical nature. You are at a far higher risk of having other systems that you rely on being exposed. For example, every credit card firm and bank has your full financial history available online for hackers to have a go at. Doesn't that unsettle you more than knowing that your dining and attraction reservations are at risk with MyMagic+?

 

[lspicknall]

The more I read about this, the more i envision a train wreck coming and leaving quite a tangled mess. And With Iger already announcing retirement in two years, he will be gone, sitting on the profit of his cashed out options and be able to say he left the company in good hands while others sort through the wreckage and try to decide what to do about P&R.