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Spirited News & Observations II -- NGE/Baxter
- Thread starter WDW1974
- Start date
The Empress Lilly
Well-Known Member
Seriously? Boisterous, loose-purse-string-R-us UNI manages 0.3 to 1 percent more growth than their lacklustre - or even non-investing! - competitors, and you call that a boost?
That is not a boost, that is, as Tim so perfectly stated, UNI already having gotten all of the growth from Potter phase one. Potter's tapped out.
DCA has a boost. DAK had a boost after Everest. IoA had a boost after Potter. The latter two are tapped out. The good news for UNI is that Potter did not turn out a one-trick pony. Potter is a repeat visit, instead of - as some feared - a see-it-once novelty.
It's funny how you're pretending Potter is in both parks already. The fact is, IOA had a 4 percent boost without adding a single attraction in the past year. No loose purse strings necessary.
They say that about all my threads ...
You really believe that or you just looking to stir the pot?
Because a four percent increase on the heels of a gigantic rise simply tells me the tide is moving in the same direction.
But the numbers can't necessarily be trusted either since these organizations refuse to put heard numbers out ...
misterID
Well-Known Member
I thought we were getting lectures about investments mattering for the future, not the present... Or is that just with MM+? How does UNI's investment in their parks not count for future growth?
As far as I can see the next major attraction since Potter (and the their mega investment) hasn't even officially opened yet. Not likely to show anything right now, right? So that boost still happened with Potter being the only part of their "huge investment" open. That's impressive, no matter how anyone tries to dismiss it.
As far as I can see the next major attraction since Potter (and the their mega investment) hasn't even officially opened yet. Not likely to show anything right now, right? So that boost still happened with Potter being the only part of their "huge investment" open. That's impressive, no matter how anyone tries to dismiss it.
Darth Sidious
Authentically Disney Distinctly Chinese
I'm replying to this in Tres... http://forums.wdwmagic.com/threads/...ons-thoughts-tres.865891/page-67#post-5531848
This thread should be locked lol.
DocMcHulk
Well-Known Member
Much like a stalking submarine, you need to run deep and silent from time to time, collect your research until it is time to surface and strike.
The Empress Lilly
Well-Known Member
The talking point is that 'UNI has already gotten all the growth they were ever going to get from phase one'
The numbers comfirm this. I'm sorry, but unless UNI got another - entirely unfeasable and not at all part of UNI's plan - growth way in the double digits this year again, then there is simply no escaping the simple truth (nobody at UNI itself would deny this!) that UNI has already gotten nearly all of Potter's added guest numbers.
All of Orlando's parks rise. WDW and SEA's parks rise from 2.2% to 3%. UNI manages 3.3%. Adding 0.3 to 1 percent on top of what the competition manages means that UNI's massive catching up of previous years has run out of steam. Potter was never about gaining less than one percent, was it? Potter was about (re)gaining several tens of percent points. This it has brilliantly achieved, and then some, and now UNI's gain on the competition has levelled off to a barely discernable less than a one percent.
UNI's expansion is like a three-stage rocket. You fire off one engine, get a massive boost, and then your speed levels off until the next rocket ignites. The next Potter growth spur will occur at Potter 2. Don't take my word for it, ask UNI management, whose entire plans for the coming years are incomprehensible without accepting the simple truth of all this.
Also, for all the (legitimate) criticism, TEA is the best anybody's got.
Good for them. MK still has greater attendance than both Uni parks combined. I'm curious where all the folks are who professed that this would be the year that IoA passed DHS and DAK in attendance and that even Epcot might be in trouble.
Lol.
Total growth at WDW: 1,060,000
Total growth at Uni: 458,000
So much for closing the gap. I thought those million extra people at WDW would be flocking to WWoHP in droves. Per park growth is roughly equal, with a slight edge to WDW. Uni's growth has clearly NOT been cannibalistic to Disney's growth, but is in fact part of a larger worldwide trend.
disney fan 13
Well-Known Member
Comparing four parks growth to two sounds really intelligent. And I never predicted that Uni would pass them this year, more like 2015 or 2016 depending on how expansions shake out but still, the fact that IOA has gone three years without an expansion and still growing at a faster rate then WDW parks is impressive, while over at USF, smaller things were added ( show, parade, d-ticket) that are more to add filler then to increase attendance. Starting in 2013, about when TF and Simpsons opens, that is Uni's second strike.
1. I specifically said "per park growth."
2. Growing at a faster "rate" is irrelevant. If you start at a smaller number, your "rate" of growth represents fewer actual people. It's like saying it's better to get a 5% raise on a $50,000 salary than a 4% raise on a $100,000 salary. The gap used to be $50,000 but now it's $51,500. The guy at $52,500 grew at a "faster rate" but he's not "catching up." He's actually fallen further behind.
3. Roughly zero people outside of passholders and locals will travel to a place to see an expanded Simpson's land. That's a woeful misstep in gauging guest demand IMO. People might enjoy it while they're there, but I don't think they'll come FOR it.
flynnibus
Premium Member
No one is questioning people will goto the MK. It has an image alone that carries it. But that doesn't mean anything when it comes to your claim that Potter's impact was already done.. and why they were in a hurry to get v2.0 done. These numbers dispute that.. and in fact show IOA still growing faster (in both percent AND absolute numbers) than most of it's peers.
Funny.. if it's part of a larger trend.. then why did IOA BEAT the trend.. while WDW's parks only matched the trend. You're basically saying WDW rose with the tide... while IOA stood above it.
flynnibus
Premium Member
Yet compared aggregates... when talking numbers and comparing percents... convenient flip flopping when necessary.
Except IOA's numbers represent a higher growth in actual guest counts (AND percent) than 3 of the 4 WDW parks. So you can discount rate.. but you want to discount actual raw attandance jumps too?
You mean like New Fantasyland? Or the Castle Show? Or a redone Innovations attraction? Or Limited Time Magic? Or a new interactive queue? Or a new cell phone game?
Pretty much everything WDW has been adding in the last 5-10 years?
Discount it all you will.. but it ignores the reality that the castle is built with lots of small to medium stones.. not just one big one.
Taylor
Well-Known Member
The Simpsons isn't anywhere near as popular as an IP as it was when the ride was opened. They will get a slight boost from Transformers though
GLaDOS
Well-Known Member
Slight? Universal Hollywood went up 15% due to Transformers alone. Transformers and Springfield will be good for at least 7% IMO.
asianway
Well-Known Member
The concept of market share is foreign to most on these boards.
You can't just throw out the MK in your analysis. You're picking Universal's stronger park and completely ignoring WDW's top performer.
Your logic: Los Angeles has more people than New York, Boston, and Philadelphia combined... as long as you don't count New York.
ParentsOf4
Well-Known Member
Any attraction loses its "newness" appeal over time; it’s the bane of all amusement parks. In general, it’s good if attendance gains can be sustained, the concern being that visitors get bored with additions after a few years and numbers start to drop off. The 4% gain at IOA outpaced the rest of Orlando and suggests WWOHP is still drawing a bit more attention than most.
I was surprised Uni's numbers were up a larger percentage than WDW. I was expecting Uni to be flat, the excitement of WWOHP having waned. However, after thinking about it a bit, I have a theory as to what might be happening.
At several financial conference calls, Iger and Rasulo mentioned domestic attendance at WDW was relatively flat. Instead, growth at WDW was determined by international attendance, with Iger and Rasulo quite pleased with the growth particularly from Brazil. IMHO, the biggest theme park attendance story in Orlando in 2012 was the rise of the international vacationer.
In terms of absolute numbers, WDW gained 1M visitors, Uni 450K. Obviously it’s partially because WDW is larger but, I suspect, most gains were from international visitors. These guests were drawn more towards WDW, with Uni benefiting from WDW’s international gains. As a result, it looks like WDW and Uni are back in their traditional roles, with WDW helping Uni, at least until WWOHP2.
This also could explain why DHS and DAK numbers were up. WDW is “new” to these international visitors and they want to experience all 4 WDW theme parks equally.
2.2% growth at WDW is strong, the strongest in years. IMHO, 2012 was an excellent attendance year for WDW considering there was nothing new at WDW until very late in the year.
I was surprised Uni's numbers were up a larger percentage than WDW. I was expecting Uni to be flat, the excitement of WWOHP having waned. However, after thinking about it a bit, I have a theory as to what might be happening.
At several financial conference calls, Iger and Rasulo mentioned domestic attendance at WDW was relatively flat. Instead, growth at WDW was determined by international attendance, with Iger and Rasulo quite pleased with the growth particularly from Brazil. IMHO, the biggest theme park attendance story in Orlando in 2012 was the rise of the international vacationer.
In terms of absolute numbers, WDW gained 1M visitors, Uni 450K. Obviously it’s partially because WDW is larger but, I suspect, most gains were from international visitors. These guests were drawn more towards WDW, with Uni benefiting from WDW’s international gains. As a result, it looks like WDW and Uni are back in their traditional roles, with WDW helping Uni, at least until WWOHP2.
This also could explain why DHS and DAK numbers were up. WDW is “new” to these international visitors and they want to experience all 4 WDW theme parks equally.
2.2% growth at WDW is strong, the strongest in years. IMHO, 2012 was an excellent attendance year for WDW considering there was nothing new at WDW until very late in the year.
flynnibus
Premium Member
hrrm.. don't know what happened to my other reply.. I must have closed the window. bah!
I'm not ignoring MK.. in fact I explicitly called it out in the other posts. Because IOA didn't outgain EVERYONE - you think it's not worth recognizing it outgained everyone BUT one?
But your logic cuts both ways Tim... you're focusing on the MK alone and ignoring the three other parks. We call that selective reasoning.
And what exactly does MK have to do with the subject at hand... your comment about HP being topped out already? IOA outgained the trend.. so you can't use the rising tide argument... what's your next stab?
Stop trying to deflect and face up to your words.