Spirited News & Observations II -- NGE/Baxter

[Figments Friend]

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Oh wow...the NGE / Baxter thread is back in action again....

Sweet coincidence, as i have been looking for an excuse to share another fab photo of our boy Tony..!

 

[cheezbat]

I still don't believe the numbers are completely correct.
I expected Uni's numbers to be about what they were, MK right around 17 mil still, but the other three WDW parks down.

Everyone I know who visited the parks this year had similar plans: visit Magic Kingdom, both Universal parks, and Sea World(one actually chose Legoland over Sea World). This is the type of vacation plans I'm hearing more and more from friends, family, and aquaintances...so obviously the uptick in attendance has to be nothing but foreigners.

 

[The Empress Lilly]

2. Growing at a faster "rate" is irrelevant. If you start at a smaller number, your "rate" of growth represents fewer actual people. It's like saying it's better to get a 5% raise on a $50,000 salary than a 4% raise on a $100,000 salary. The gap used to be $50,000 but now it's $51,500. The guy at $52,500 grew at a "faster rate" but he's not "catching up." He's actually fallen further behind.

But that can be deceptive too.

A has 900,000 customers
B has 100,000 customers

Next year:
A: +1,1 million, total 2 million
B: +400k, total 500,000

A has nearly treble the amount of new customers, 1,1 million against a mere 400 thousand. A has nearly doubled its lead, from 800k to 1,5 million. Despite that, it is B's market share which has doubled from 10% to 20%.

The winner in this scenario? One, not dissimilar to WDW vs UNI? That depends a good deal on what you want to say, and on the larger strategic forces at play.

 

[RSoxNo1]

Really? It must be shocking then to see the TEA report where it shows IOA posting the most additional guests in 2012 vs 2011 of all the Florida parks sans MK itself.

And can someone please raise the bridge so @SirOinksALot can explain how USF was so DESPERATE because of no jaws and how bad their attendance was due to it... yet they show a healthy 2.5% increase for the period?

Another point of note is that the two parks that opened Transformers last year saw 10%+ attendance increases.

 

[flynnibus]

Another point of note is that the two parks that opened Transformers last year saw 10%+ attendance increases.

Certainly adding new attractions helps.. but USF already has Spidey.. it's not quite the greenfield that USH was. Plus, USH has a gazzilion locals nearby that just need an excuse to go. Everyone local knows that USH is not a park worth visiting a lot.. so in effect they just need a reason to go.. and bam.. the flood gate opens. I think it will be interesting to see if USH sustains that boost until the new expansions open.

 

[RSoxNo1]

The talking point is that 'UNI has already gotten all the growth they were ever going to get from phase one'

The numbers comfirm this. I'm sorry, but unless UNI got another - entirely unfeasable and not at all part of UNI's plan - growth way in the double digits this year again, then there is simply no escaping the simple truth (nobody at UNI itself would deny this!) that UNI has already gotten nearly all of Potter's added guest numbers.

All of Orlando's parks rise. WDW and SEA's parks rise from 2.2% to 3%. UNI manages 3.3%. Adding 0.3 to 1 percent on top of what the competition manages means that UNI's massive catching up of previous years has run out of steam. Potter was never about gaining less than one percent, was it? Potter was about (re)gaining several tens of percent points. This it has brilliantly achieved, and then some, and now UNI's gain on the competition has levelled off to a barely discernable less than a one percent.

UNI's expansion is like a three-stage rocket. You fire off one engine, get a massive boost, and then your speed levels off until the next rocket ignites. The next Potter growth spur will occur at Potter 2. Don't take my word for it, ask UNI management, whose entire plans for the coming years are incomprehensible without accepting the simple truth of all this.

Also, for all the (legitimate) criticism, TEA is the best anybody's got.

They're retaining this attendance gain though and there are 3 E-tickets opening within the next year. Their attendance will continue to rise.

 

[PhotoDave219]

You can't just throw out the MK in your analysis. You're picking Universal's stronger park and completely ignoring WDW's top performer.

Your logic: Los Angeles has more people than New York, Boston, and Philadelphia combined... as long as you don't count New York.

.....Ahem..... What about Philadelphia?

 

[flynnibus]

The talking point is that 'UNI has already gotten all the growth they were ever going to get from phase one'

The numbers comfirm this

How does one come to that conclusion when IOA's numbers continued to increase at a rate higher than the area trend.. and added more actual guests than all but one of its area peers? Also during a period where no other additions were added to the park.

You also left off the important aspect of time in the talking point. The claim is that UNI had to put HPv2 in because they knew Potter was already tapped out. That means you need to put the point of reference back to when HPv2 was committed.

All of Orlando's parks rise. WDW and SEA's parks rise from 2.2% to 3%. UNI manages 3.3%. Adding 0.3 to 1 percent on top of what the competition manages means that UNI's massive catching up of previous years has run out of steam. Potter was never about gaining less than one percent, was it? Potter was about (re)gaining several tens of percent points. This it has brilliantly achieved, and then some, and now UNI's gain on the competition has levelled off to a barely discernable less than a one percent.

Why are you combining USO and IOA's numbers together here? You're conveniently using USO to dillute IOA's numbers... when talking about something that was IOA-only.

And Potter didn't add less than one percent.. it added over 30% in the numbers that matter... their profits. And still helped IOA grow 4% in attendance. A rate that TEA would term exceptional.. considering it was boastful of the simple 2.2% increase the industry had.

 

[The Empress Lilly]

You also left off the important aspect of time in the talking point. The claim is that UNI had to put HPv2 in because they knew Potter was already tapped out. That means you need to put the point of reference back to when HPv2 was committed.

Nah, that's just UNI management agreeing with Tim and I that Potter phase I is all but maxed out and that they need to ignite the second stage rocket, because Potter I is not going to give them another attendance boost.

Just like UNI agrees that there are capacity problems at Ollivanders by the sheer fact of their tripling the capacity of it.

 

[GLaDOS]

Nah, that's just UNI management agreeing with Tim and I that Potter phase I is all but maxed out and that they need to ignite the second stage rocket, because Potter I is not going to give them another attendance boost.

Except it gave them an above industry attendance boost this year.

How do people not understand this?

 

[The Empress Lilly]

Except it gave them an above industry attendance boost this year.

How do people not understand this?

Pepsi invents a new recepy. Its sales shoot up 50% over industry average in year one, 15% in year two, and 1% in year three.

This means that, despite nominally still growing faster than the industry average, the boost has maxed out. Pepsi has gotten all the growth they were going to get from their new recipe.

 

[GLaDOS]

This means that, despite nominally still growing faster than the industry average, the boost has maxed out. Pepsi has gotten all the growth they were going to get from their new recipe.

But that's not true. IoA still grew more than the industry average. Therefore Potter is still providing IoA with growth.

 

[jakeman]

Except it gave them an above industry attendance boost this year.

How do people not understand this?

According to the report, the top 10 performed at an average of 6.7% and the average for all parks globally was 5.2%, so it wasn't an above industry average this year.

Perhaps you should read the report before making up facts?

 

[GLaDOS]

According to the report, the top 10 performed at an average of 6.2% globally and the average for all parks was 5.2%, so it wasn't an above industry average this year.

Perhaps you should read the report before making up facts?

It beat the Orlando average.

Better?

 

[jakeman]

It beat the Orlando average.

Better?

If by better, you mean actually true, then yes.

 

[GLaDOS]

If by better, you mean actually true, then yes.

No need to get your knickers in a twist.

 

[jakeman]

No need to get your knickers in a twist.

It's okay, factual honesty usually untwist them.

 

[GLaDOS]

It's okay, factual honesty usually untwist them.

I'll remember that next time I'm human and make a mistake.

 

[jakeman]

I'll remember that next time I'm human and make a mistake.

Maybe your mistakes would be more tolerable if you weren't so indignant about it?

I mean, how do people not understand that?

 

[GLaDOS]

Maybe your mistakes would be more tolerable if you weren't so indignant about it?

I mean, how do people not understand that?

Pot, meet kettle.