Spirited News & Observations II -- NGE/Baxter

[Tim_4]

Cannibalization I can agree upon - but AoA also has higher costs per room so it's an upsell for the value audience so Disney should be doing better on the Per Guest spending in that matter. So it's not about 'more rooms' as your post stated, but rather lack of drawing new guests. So again.. the problem is the product isn't desirable enough to overcome the cost to lure people into staying onsite. That's an unhealthy issue. That's an issue not really improved upon (nor necessarily hurt.. much) by AoA.

Disney is still relying on promos to fill those moderates and deluxes...

I disagree that it's an upssell for the value audience. I think it's more likely that a DAAR guest is a family that would require two value rooms to fit everyone. A single POP room to a DAAR suite is definitely an upsell, but two POP rooms to a DAAR suite is flat or even a savings.

 

[flynnibus]

Keep in mind that Disney only separates the parks and resorts by domestic and international, so these numbers also include Disneyland, not just WDW.

Complete dealbreaker with these numbers... because we know of the surge in DLR vs flat to little growth in WDW.

What is interesting is when you plot YtY change for rooms.. and bookings.. you see they do a relatively poor job of converting new inventory to bookings over this time period. Second.. you see nice crossing points downward after 2008 and upward in 2011.

 

[flynnibus]

I disagree that it's an upssell for the value audience. I think it's more likely that a DAAR guest is a family that would require two value rooms to fit everyone. A single POP room to a DAAR suite is definitely an upsell, but two POP rooms to a DAAR suite is flat or even a savings.

Two POP rooms would conveniently shift the comparison to a higher price point.

The comparison for the suites are the existing suites.. at all star. And AoA is more expensive (and justified IMO). The single rooms are also more expensive.. also an upsell due to the decor.

AoA offers suites over just connecting rooms..
And offers heavy decor to Disney them vs motel 6 with Disney on TV.

They raised the offering.. and are charging accordingly. It is an upsell vs the alternative.

 

[Darth Sidious]

I wanted to drop a great quote I read by Walt. (it is my signature now as well)

"This concept here will have to be something that is unique, so there is a distinction between Disneyland in California and whatever Disney does in Florida."

That is why I think Carsland for DHS is the wrong move. Please, wow us again with something new. Give fans a reason to visit BOTH resorts if they can. For those who cannot, we should at least want this because WDW deserves a unique and equally spectacular project.

 

[George]

Funny, I just watched the Dark Knight Rises for the first time this afternoon.

 

[alissafalco]

You took me too seriously. I was being facetious. Hence the wink.

Helped by a weak U.S. dollar and aggressive marketing, international guests are approaching one-quarter of all WDW visitors. It's these crowds that we are seeing at WDW. International guests are helping fill the gap caused by a declining domestic base.

IMHO, it's Universal that's benefiting right now from WDW's marketing, not the other way around as happened in 2010 and 2011 with WWOHP.

Like you, I suspect offsite occupancy is up.

WDW resort prices have reached such painful levels that many Americans are being priced out of the market. Disney needs to offer discounts, even during peak summer season, just so folks can afford to stay at WDW resorts. WDW's willingness to offer "room-only" summer discounts suggests there is a negative occupancy trend going on at WDW resorts right now.

I also wonder if DVC is having some impact. Never have so many DVC rooms been available. As folks become more comfortable renting DVC points over the Internet, is this having a modest effect on WDW's direct room rentals?

WDW would not offer summer "room only" discounts if all was well. Something's going on.

P.S. One more thought. Wyndham Bonnet Creek opened a few years ago and essentially is located on WDW property. It has over 2000 suites and costs considerably less than WDW. I got to believe some are deciding to stay in a spacious 2-bedroom suite for the price of a single room at a WDW Moderate or even Value Resort. Parking there is always hell no matter when we visit so I suspect they are doing a robust business.

Well I can tell you that my girlfriends and I are going to F&W in oct., there is 4 of us and we chose to stay off property at the Staybridge suites. We are getting a 2 bedroom 2 bathroom suite for $144 a night that includes free hot breakfast, free parking, and free shuttles to all 4 parks. We looked at deluxe rooms at WDW and they are absolutely ridiculous. The cheapest was Ak at $465 a night for a standard and that was the cheapest! All the boardwalk hotels wanted over $500 and poly and GF were in the 600's a night. The moderates were still more $$ per night than what we are paying, and to have to squeeze 4 of us in a tiny room with one bathroom, it was a no brainier for us.

 

[Darth Sidious]

Check this out @englanddg

Fantastic movie... Speaking of movies, I don't think I have anticipated a movie as much as I am Iron Man 3. I cannot wait to see it on Friday.

 

[Goofyernmost]

I wanted to drop a great quote I read by Walt. (it is my signature now as well)



That is why I think Carsland for DHS is the wrong move. Please, wow us again with something new. Give fans a reason to visit BOTH resorts if they can. For those who cannot, we should at least want this because WDW deserves a unique and equally spectacular project.

Accept that he also said, in the press conference concerning the Florida project that, (I'm paraphrasing here) 'there would be many things in the park that would be the same as in California, and other new things as well'. He never intended that nothing would be copied or redone in Florida just because it was done in California. For those of us that will not be able to make the trek to California, this is a unique thing for Florida. There's nothing else in Florida like it. Something that is located someplace else that one cannot get to, basically doesn't exist for us.

Think the Tea Cups, think the carousel, think Mr. Toad, think the Subs, think Peter Pan, think the Jungle Cruise, think the Haunted Mansion, think the paddle boat ride, think the people mover, think the Tiki Room, think the Monorail...it goes on and on. What would WDW be like now if those things were not allowed to clone on the east coast?

The idea that something cannot be in Florida just because it's already in California and especially that Walt wouldn't have done it that way reflects a complete lack of Disney history of how Walt did things. How about castles and Main Street USA or the Train Station. I know he was gone by the time that WDW was built, but if you don't think he had a powerful lot of influence in its outcome, you would be mistaken. The only time that he ever mentioned that he didn't want to repeat himself was in animated films. Everything else was up for repetition if it worked.

 

[the.dreamfinder]

Fantastic movie... Speaking of movies, I don't think I have anticipated a movie as much as I am Iron Man 3. I cannot wait to see it on Friday.

Some theaters are running 9pm showings on thursday night.

 

[Darth Sidious]

Accept that he also said, in the press conference concerning the Florida project that, (I'm paraphrasing here) 'there would be many things in the park that would be the same as in California, and other new things as well'. He never intended that nothing would be copied or redone in Florida just because it was done in California. For those of us that will not be able to make the trek to California, this is a unique thing for Florida. There's nothing else in Florida like it. Something that is located someplace else that one cannot get to, basically doesn't exist for us.

Think the Tea Cups, think the carousel, think Mr. Toad, think the Subs, think Peter Pan, think the Jungle Cruise, think the Haunted Mansion, think the paddle boat ride, think the people mover, think the Tiki Room, think the Monorail...it goes on and on. What would WDW be like now if those things were not allowed to clone on the east coast?

The idea that something cannot be in Florida just because it's already in California and especially that Walt wouldn't have done it that way reflects a complete lack of Disney history of how Walt did things. How about castles and Main Street USA or the Train Station. I know he was gone by the time that WDW was built, but if you don't think he had a powerful lot of influence in its outcome, you would be mistaken. The only time that he ever mentioned that he didn't want to repeat himself was in animated films. Everything else was up for repetition if it worked.

I think that there should be diversity between the coasts. Even things done in Florida that existed in California were done with a new twist. When you have a land like Carsland based on IP, it becomes harder to change things.

Would I be mad if they made Carsland in Florida, absolutely not. However, I think that there should be a degree of uniqueness. I suppose they can do that in Florida with Carsland but I challenge them to up the ante and come up with something just as good if not better.

I get that Walt did not refrain from 'copying' but they did do them differently on each coast. For example, Sleeping Beauty castle vs Cinderella castle. Not to mention, now more than then, they have the benefit of having the plethora of untouched and fantastic IP. Especially just looking at the past year with the addition of Star Wars and Indiana Jones.

I am glad you responded though because you make good points and my post was intended to create such discussion. Especially in the absence of ol 74.

 

[Darth Sidious]

Some theaters are running 9pm showings on thursday night.

Work keeps me late and has me up early. I also made plans with some friends to go Friday. It will kick off the weekend nicely.

 

[misterID]

I wanted to drop a great quote I read by Walt. (it is my signature now as well)



That is why I think Carsland for DHS is the wrong move. Please, wow us again with something new. Give fans a reason to visit BOTH resorts if they can. For those who cannot, we should at least want this because WDW deserves a unique and equally spectacular project.

I understand what you're saying. The thing is, it's really futile to judge them by what they "should" do after all this time and given everything we know, and start thinking in lines of what they're willing to do.

They should fix Imagination, they should have gone forward with the potter swatter projects, they should do a lot of things... But they're not and they won't. They don't care enough to do that. If they're willing to actually build "something" and that something is actually cool, I'll take it. That might not say a lot and I might be in the wrong, but going by the state of WDW, I'm not going to get finicky over big E ticket projects coming to The World now.

It will be nice when the clowns are finally shown the door and our expectations can rise again.

 

[luv]

@Mr Bill - I don't know what "Struttin' naked towards eternity" means - but I like it.
P.S. Afraid to Google it, just in case something nasty comes up (no pun intended).

LOL, I didn't see where that was posted, but it isn't vulgar.

It's a line from a Jimmy Buffett song called "Fruitcakes", which is a good and fairly funny song. It's one of his more popular ones, too.

I'm not sure what context it was used in, but I applaud whoever used it.

You should pony up the dollar and download it from iTunes. Worth hearing!

 

[GoofGoof]

I decided to look into the occupancy rate/number of people staying in rooms issue and it is true that more people were staying on property in 2012 than 2011 despite the occupancy rate dropping from 82% to 81%. Disney uses "available room nights" as a measurement, the number of rooms available multiplied by the number of days in the year.

Here's the numbers pulled from the company's annual reports. Keep in mind that Disney only separates the parks and resorts by domestic and international, so these numbers also include Disneyland, not just WDW.

Year        Occupancy        Available Room Nights    Room Nights Booked
2012        81%              9,850,000                7,978,500
2011        82%              9,625,000                7,892,500
2010        82%              9,629,000                7,895,780
2009        87%              8,732,000                7,596,840
2008        90%              8,566,000                7,709,400
2007        89%              8,614,000                7,666,460
2006        86%              8,834,000                7,597,240
2005        83%              8,777,000                7,284,910

Anyone know if these numbers include cruise ship rooms? If so that is probably really skewing the numbers. I don't think DLR has enough rooms to move the needle either way.

 

[Tim_4]

Well I can tell you that my girlfriends and I are going to F&W in oct., there is 4 of us and we chose to stay off property at the Staybridge suites. We are getting a 2 bedroom 2 bathroom suite for $144 a night that includes free hot breakfast, free parking, and free shuttles to all 4 parks. We looked at deluxe rooms at WDW and they are absolutely ridiculous. The cheapest was Ak at $465 a night for a standard and that was the cheapest! All the boardwalk hotels wanted over $500 and poly and GF were in the 600's a night. The moderates were still more $$ per night than what we are paying, and to have to squeeze 4 of us in a tiny room with one bathroom, it was a no brainier for us.

There's nothing wrong with that, it just means that you're not in the target audience for deluxe resorts. A lot of people that stay there spend $500 a night and it doesn't even occur to them that it's a lot of money. The fact that you even considered price and checked "what was the cheapest" means your probably weren't going to stay at a deluxe resort anyways. I'm not being judgmental, since I'm in the same boat as you. I can't afford deluxe resorts so I don't stay in them. For you and me, free hot breakfast is an awesome perk that we quite enjoy. For the average Grand Floridian guest, free hot breakfast is either "gross" or simply inadequate because you can't roll out of bed, hop on the monorail and be at Chef Mickey's.

One thing that we have to throw out in these comparisons is the implication that off-site hotel shuttles are just as convenient as Disney transportation. No, Disney transpo isn't perfect but staying off-site is significantly worse. I've stayed off-site and used shuttles a few times and it greatly hurt my experience. They didn't leave early enough to get to park opening, so experiencing attractions like Toy Story was a challenge and you always missed the morning show. Worse was at night, when there was only one or two shuttle times and they often didn't allow you to enjoy the nighttime shows (fireworks etc). You couldn't leave when you wanted to, you had to leave when the shuttle said so. Sure, you could rent a car, but when you add that cost to the price of your room, the premium you'd pay for a Disney resort is reduced by $50 a day or however much you pay for the car.

 

[Tim_4]

Anyone know if these numbers include cruise ship rooms?

They do not.

 

[alissafalco]

There's nothing wrong with that, it just means that you're not in the target audience for deluxe resorts. A lot of people that stay there spend $500 a night and it doesn't even occur to them that it's a lot of money. The fact that you even considered price and checked "what was the cheapest" means your probably weren't going to stay at a deluxe resort anyways. I'm not being judgmental, since I'm in the same boat as you. I can't afford deluxe resorts so I don't stay in them. For you and me, free hot breakfast is an awesome perk that we quite enjoy. For the average Grand Floridian guest, free hot breakfast is either "gross" or simply inadequate because you can't roll out of bed, hop on the monorail and be at Chef Mickey's.

One thing that we have to throw out in these comparisons is the implication that off-site hotel shuttles are just as convenient as Disney transportation. No, Disney transpo isn't perfect but staying off-site is significantly worse. I've stayed off-site and used shuttles a few times and it greatly hurt my experience. They didn't leave early enough to get to park opening, so experiencing attractions like Toy Story was a challenge and you always missed the morning show. Worse was at night, when there was only one or two shuttle times and they often didn't allow you to enjoy the nighttime shows (fireworks etc). You couldn't leave when you wanted to, you had to leave when the shuttle said so. Sure, you could rent a car, but when you add that cost to the price of your room, the premium you'd pay for a Disney resort is reduced by $50 a day or however much you pay for the car.

Actually we were going to stay in a Deluxe that's why we looked. We wanted to stay on the boardwalk because we are only going to Epcot for F&W. Also, we can afford to stay there, we are splitting the room cost four ways. Even with that we all agreed that its just insane and not worth the way extra $$ to be on the boardwalk in a small room with one bathroom for 4 women when for a fraction of the price we are getting so much more. Also, I stayed at the Poly this past sept. for a week for around 350$ a night and it absolutely is not worth it at all! as far as the WDW buses don't get me started. We waited an hour last sept outside of Hollywood studios to get back to the Poly when the park closed. The WDW buses are horrible!

 

[Tim_4]

Actually we were going to stay in a Deluxe that's why we looked. We wanted to stay on the boardwalk because we are only going to Epcot for F&W. Also, we can afford to stay there, we are splitting the room cost four ways. Even with that we all agreed that its just insane and not worth the way extra $$ to be on the boardwalk in a small room with one bathroom for 4 women when for a fraction of the price we are getting so much more. Also, I stayed at the Poly this past sept. for a week for around 350$ a night and it absolutely is not worth it at all!as far as the WDW busses don't get me started. We waited an hour last sept outside of Hollywood studios to get back to the Poly when the park closed. The WDW buses are horrible!

I really didn't mean for you to take offense. By "afford it" I mean Grand Floridan guests don't use words like "splitting the cost four ways," "insane," " not worth the way extra $$," "fraction of the price," or "not worth it."

Edit: They don't look at the price, period. They pick the one they like best, regardless of price, and pay whatever they're told by the booking agent.

 

[GoofGoof]

They do not.

Interesting. The available room nights works out to about 27,000 rooms. The room nights booked is about 22,000. DLR has a little over 2,000 rooms. Lets assume they were all available all year and at 100% occupancy. In that scenario WDW had 25,000 rooms available and 20,000 rooms booked or an occupancy rate of 80%. I guess that's still a big tick down from peak levels, but still a pretty solid number for WDW.

 

[MattM]

And yet they have acknowledged that NFE is not providing the bump in attendance that they expected (which ironically pretty much anyone on here but the most naive could have told them was going to happen).

And attendance is "rising".. I don't know if I consider a 1% growth over the past four years as rising. That's pretty darn flat if you ask me, and another thing that has been both acknowledged as disappointing and also very obviously tried to be downplayed by executives

We'll know for sure on May 6th during the next earnings report.