May I throw a wrench into this discussion? I am assuming with all the data mining, Disney will also track whether or not one actually uses any given ADR, or FP+. Suppose a guest, or group decides not to use the ADR they had booked months ago. Suppose they don't use all of their allocated FP+, or any of them. In small amounts this probably wouldn't affect anything, but what if huge numbers of guests booked them, but never used them, and did something else? My take on this scenario is that nothing happens of interest in the guest experience, but what if numbers show the guest is ambivalent about the whole Next Gen thing? Just a thought.
With FP, WDW already deals with unused "experiences". (Gotta love Disney-speak.) Somebody shows up at 9:50 AM at Soarin' and gets a 7:50 PM FP. There's a decent chance they won't be around to use it. WDW also deals with a lot of people who don't know how to use FP and so don't try. Both
scenarios result in crowd
variances that WDW is trying to eliminate.
With FP+, if someone gets a 7:50 PM time for Soarin', they are more likely to be there. It's an appointment they scheduled months in advance. They go to DAK in the morning (maybe) and head over to Epcot for dinner. If someone doesn't understand FP+, they have had months to stare at the thing on their home computing devices, with WDW sending them email prompts that "it's time to book your FastPass Plus experiences". Even if they don't fully comprehend it, they are going to click buttons and make selections. People have been trained to do this. (I've started several polls only to have people effectively write, "I didn't understand the poll question but I made a selection anyway" or "I have no experience with the first 3 options but I've done the 4th option so I picked that one."
) Once they make their selections, they've made an appointment and are more likely to keep it. FP+ should help WDW more accurately predict crowd levels which should help with
efficiency if, as you allude, people don't end up confused by it. Despite WDW's best attempts, there still will be those stopping at MK Guest Services asking, "I've got a time for Expedition Everest. I can't find it on the park map. Where is it?"
From WDW's perspective, the more important aspect is that these FP+ appointments might keep guests onsite. Why head to Universal or SeaWorld when you have 4 FP+ burning a hole in your electronic pocket? Give guests 4 FP+ experiences for each day of their stay and they are going to be inclined to use them. It's a smart strategy to try since it essentially costs WDW nothing and could help stem the Universal/SeaWorld bleeding. If it doesn't work, reconfiguring NextGen to try a different strategy is changing lines of software. WDW will keep trying different strategies until it hits the winning combination. Because NextGen's core algorithms are software-based, it requires a few hours of an engineer's time to reconfigure the system to try different strategies. I fully expect FP+ to change quite a bit until WDW stumbles across the right combination of input parameters that result in maximum revenue.