I strongly believe that behind closed doors in Burbank, the Powers That Be Mouse have quietly conceded to themselves, that they've run out of time to avoid the proverbial cliff with regard to WDW's continued death grip on the Orlando market.
I honestly believe they sorely misunderstood the "Potter Demographic". All that rhetoric about "Rising tide raises all boats" was 100% wrong.
Whether or not they've conceded is moot. The point is, they're not taking action to fix the issues, or at least not at an appropriate pace.
Business leaders don't concede anything. The people running businesses eat, sleep, and
breathe this stuff. When they fail, it's not because they didn't try but because they outfoxed themselves or, if you will, convinced themselves that their idiotic strategies (in
hindsight) were sure-fire winners. This is why when they fail it's usually in spectacular ways. They thought they were smarter than everyone else. The egos involved are huge. When they fail, rather than being smarter than everyone else, usually they were too clever for their own good.
The powers making the decisions affecting WDW, whether you believe they reside in Orlando or Burbank, are absolutely convinced they have a strategy to smack down Universal and put it back in its place. The questions are: What is this strategy? Will it work?
In the 2000s, WDW tried what they considered to be a more traditional approach, swapping out some old attractions for new ones. Think Mission: Space (2003), Soarin' (2005), Expedition Everest (2006), and Toy Story Mania (2008). All are popular attractions today. However, these were initiated during the Eisner regime, even if finished later. The fact that none of these appreciably boosted attendance coupled with Eisner's spectacular fall from grace means the current regime wants to distance itself from that line of thinking. Instead of following the old tried-and-true, something Universal is doing, they want to "revolutionize" the theme park business. You know, like the Ford Edsel and Sony Beta. What is their strategy? What will they do?
Enter NextGen.
Disney already is advertising NextGen as a way to customize your vacation. Baloney. NextGen's ultimate goal is to customize how much you pay for your vacation.
Everyone has a different price-point, a different amount they are willing to spend for a WDW vacation. Disney wants to use NextGen to find that point. If the most you're willing to spend is $5,785.37, Disney eventually will offer a vacation package that costs, surprise, $5,785.37. You want to spend $1,785.37? Disney will have something for you too. The person paying $5,785.37 will get a better theme park experience than the person paying $1,785.37. Better FP+, better viewing locations, better ADRs, better meet & greets. It's that simple. NextGen gives Disney absolute control over how everyone vacations at WDW.
You might say, "I have control." Sure, if you think standing in line for 120 minutes is "control" then more power to you. If you think "I'll be able to pick my FP+" is control then you've misunderstood what FP+ is. With FP+, you'll get whatever Disney decides to offer you. If you are offered TSM FP+ you'll think "This is great." If you are offered SGE FP+ you'll think "What do I need this for?" With NextGen, Disney controls what you get. Who will get most of the TSM FP+, the person paying $5,785.37 or the person paying $1,785.37?
Disney is not naive enough to think NextGen will succeed on its own. That's why they'll continue to employ some of their recent favorites such as price increases and DVC. They'll also spend the minimum amount possible to convince the public that WDW is "new". Think of the budget-downsized "New" Fantasyland, Avatarland, and (probably) Carsland. These will be the carrots dangled in front of the unsuspecting public to convince them to come back to WDW and experience NextGen which, as already outlined, will allow Disney to maximize how much each person pays.
Returning to the second question: Will it work?
Disney thinks so.