Potter power: Universal sets 12-month attendance record.

[Captain Chaos]

First, WDW attendance as a whole was down last year. Not up. 3 of the 4 parks all had decreases in attendance. Including Epcot and MK, so a 1% decrease at the MK is double what a 1% increase at AK can make up. Throw in Epcot and DHS decreases, and the numbers are easy enough to see. WDW had lower attendance last year then the year before.

Universal Orlando Resort will NEVER pass WDW in attendance. It's size prevents that from ever happening. However. US and IOA may very well play to more packed houses over the course of a year. The whole point is, WWoHP was/is a HUGE success. And WDW has been resting on its laurels, and is paying the price in attendance right now.



To your last point. I do not believe it is HP directly pulling down WDW numbers. I think it is more that WDW has been sitting on its hands for half a decade. If WDW had made a move to counter WWoHP, then I think both parks would have had increased numbers. However, Disney did nothing, and now they are no longer the front of the line cutting edge of theme park design. Which is kind of sad. Tack on some of the general malaise from WDW regular, due to the general lack of maintenance and new experiences, and it is a recipe for more migration to Universal Studios. I know I am spending more and more time there as the years go by.

Your last pargraph is true... and I completely agree... HP may not been the only reason WDW numbers are down... Slow economic recovery, high unemployment rate, stagnant WDW growth are all contributors...

 

[Captain Chaos]

I'll likely regret jumping into this name-calling food fight but thought I'd try and bring a little bit of historical fact to the discussion. The two charts below record the historical attendance data for WDW and UO for a little more than the last decade. One important point in the data is the both charts are exactly the same scale so the visual reference and the clear difference in numbers is completely accurate.

There is no question that Universal has seen a nice uptick in attendance as a result of the investment in Harry Potter. Disney would have seen a similar uptick in attendance had they chosen to go forward and make the investment for Harry Potter. There have been a lot of reports that Disney passed since given the control they would have had to give over to JKR and the net profit they would have at the end, it didn't fit their profitability models which is their decision to make.

If you look at the data starting around 2004 you can see that Universal had been seeing a continuing decline in attendance for many years with a slight flattening around the opening of The Mummy in 2006. A lot of that decline was a direct result of that park stagnating with almost no investment in IOA since it opened. But the bottom line of this is that never, since Universal Orlando has opened has the combined attendance of both parks ever reached the attendance of the Magic Kingdom alone. This has to be kept in perspective when considering the impact one investment has on a competitor.

Yes, Universal made a good investment that is returning very well for them with the choice of Harry Potter. However, none of us has any data as to whether that has resulted in improved profits (they are a business after all) but it certainly has increased their attendance numbers. The first 6 months of those numbers are factored into the chart below. But anyone suggesting that it will kill Disney or have any other massive negative impact is not seeing the whole picture. One or the other does not have to be crushed for both of them to succeed. The competition between two major players in the market can only improve the experience for us all.

You are comparing a resort that has 4 large parks to a resort who has two mid-sized parks... Really cannot compare fairly... WDW BETTER have more attendance and people on property at any given minute of the day...

when your competitors' attendance and business increases while yours decreases, how is that a good thing and not a negative??? It is a huge negative... Remember what Disney cares about.. YOUR MONEY... any day spent off Disney property and on USO Resort property is money out of Disney's bottom line... That's what they don't want... So yes, it is a negative...

No one, AGAIN, as said HP is killing or will kill Disney... NO ONE.. People have to stop putting words into people's posts that just aren't there...

Dumb business decision: YES... Disney's death knoll: NO...

As for the merchandise data, go find Universal's press releases about their huge jumps in attendance and huge profits in merchandise sales... it is all there if people want to find it... Problem is, people don't want to find it.. instead, they want to ignore the facts because it makes theyr DISNEY IS THE BEST AND ALL IS WELL argument look foolish....

 

[ChrisFL]

I just want IOA to beat AK in numbers one year and I'll be happy, maybe then Disney will make me want to visit AK again by adding some good dark rides

 

[donsullivan]

You are comparing a resort that has 4 large parks to a resort who has two mid-sized parks... Really cannot compare fairly... WDW BETTER have more attendance and people on property at any given minute of the day...

when your competitors' attendance and business increases while yours decreases, how is that a good thing and not a negative??? It is a huge negative... Remember what Disney cares about.. YOUR MONEY... any day spent off Disney property and on USO Resort property is money out of Disney's bottom line... That's what they don't want... So yes, it is a negative...

No one, AGAIN, as said HP is killing or will kill Disney... NO ONE.. People have to stop putting words into people's posts that just aren't there...

Dumb business decision: YES... Disney's death knoll: NO...

As for the merchandise data, go find Universal's press releases about their huge jumps in attendance and huge profits in merchandise sales... it is all there if people want to find it... Problem is, people don't want to find it.. instead, they want to ignore the facts because it makes theyr DISNEY IS THE BEST AND ALL IS WELL argument look foolish....

You're making the assumption in your argument that the key measure of success for a Theme Park is increased attendance; from a financial model standpoint that may not always be true. There are scenarios where the operating costs of adding the next million guests in a year can increase disproportionate to the increased revenue brought in by those guests therefore making it a negative for the business. Any success must be measured in both top line revenue and bottom line profits to determine if it is worthwhile.

 

[captainkidd]

You are comparing a resort that has 4 large parks to a resort who has two mid-sized parks...

Actually, the 2 Universal Parks are both bigger than the Magic Kingdom and DHS. Animal Kingdom is far and away the largest theme park in Florida.

But your point holds true - Of course more people are going to be at Disney. That's likely to never change.

 

[cheezbat]

Disney E-Tickets Timeline Span

- Everest April 7, 2006
- Soarin' May 5, 2005
- Mission:Space August 15, 2003
- Rock N Roller Coaster July 29, 1999
- Test Track March 17, 1999
- Splash Mountain October 2, 1992
- Big Thunder Mountain November 15, 1980
- Space Mountain January 15, 1975

This has been the second longest time it's been since a major attraction / theme park has been announced / planned / developed / opened at Walt Disney World.

While Disney hasn't announced anything, UNI has opened two major attractions and has been raking in money.

Where is Twilight Zone Tower of Terror? Didn't that open in 1994? That was the E-ticket that really put DHS on the map. And Dinosaur opened as Countdown to Extinction in 1998. So basically, aside from the 80's, we have never seen more than a four or five year gap between new E-ticket additions...until now.

19 years since Magic Kingdom has seen one
6 years since Epcot has seen one
12 years since Hollywood Studios has seen one
5 years since Animal Kingdom has seen one

 

[captainkidd]

Where is Twilight Zone Tower of Terror? Didn't that open in 1994? That was the E-ticket that really put DHS on the map. And Dinosaur opened as Countdown to Extinction in 1998.

Good points, and those are 2 of the best attractions at Disney.

I am going to give Disney the benefit of the doubt and see what the end result of the FLE is.

 

[invader]

Good points, and those are 2 of the best attractions at Disney.

I am going to give Disney the benefit of the doubt and see what the end result of the FLE is.

Can't hardly call it an expansion when they're truly only adding one ride.

 

[njDizFan]

Well technically LM is replacing 20000K and Mine Ride is replacing Snow White. But we are getting a 2nd Dumbo spinner.

Actually I am excited about the FLE

 

[Chevross]

I've seen it mentioned, I'm not sure if it was this thread or not, that Universal/IOA doesn't have the land to expand much more, except on property that already has something on it (like Potter expanding into the Lost Continent for example), however, just wondering, who owns these two plots of land?

 

[Captain Chaos]

Chev, if I am not mistaken, those plots are part of Universal Orlando Resort and are designated for hotel expansion (new value resort maybe for one of the plots???)...

I am sure there is someone who can come along and let us know for sure...

 

[Captain Chaos]

Actually, the 2 Universal Parks are both bigger than the Magic Kingdom and DHS. Animal Kingdom is far and away the largest theme park in Florida.

But your point holds true - Of course more people are going to be at Disney. That's likely to never change.

But, as capacity goes, MK can hold 80,000 guests right?? Universal and IOA's capacity maxes at 40,000, am I correct??? If not, if you know the real numbers, can you post them???

 

[donsullivan]

They are owned by Universal. The link to the Orange County records on the plots is

http://paarcgis.ocpafl.org/Webmap2/default.aspx?pin=282324898100005

 

[captainkidd]

But, as capacity goes, MK can hold 80,000 guests right?? Universal and IOA's capacity maxes at 40,000, am I correct??? If not, if you know the real numbers, can you post them???

I'm not sure. I would assume max capacity is around the same, but I really don't know.

 

[Chevross]

Chev, if I am not mistaken, those plots are part of Universal Orlando Resort and are designated for hotel expansion (new value resort maybe for one of the plots???)...

I am sure there is someone who can come along and let us know for sure...

I would hope Universal would consider those plots for more than just hotel expansion. I think it would be possible to add a third, albeit smaller, third park.

 

[EvanAnderson]

I'm not sure. I would assume max capacity is around the same, but I really don't know.

I used to work at Universal. IOA's capacity before Potter was around 35,000. USF was around 40,000.

 

[Captain Chaos]

I used to work at Universal. IOA's capacity before Potter was around 35,000. USF was around 40,000.

So I was pretty close... So, MK and Disney parks pretty much hold more people than IOA and Uni... Thanks Tim...

 

[Captain Chaos]

I would hope Universal would consider those plots for more than just hotel expansion. I think it would be possible to add a third, albeit smaller, third park.

I would too but the popular rumor is a value type resort, not owned and run by Lowes, to be built on property... Not sure how credible the rumor is though it makes sense... A value resort on property would be a nice addition...

 

[maxairmike]

I know that they had announced plans, and I believe very vague "art" for the use of that larger plot along Turkey Lake. At the time it included administrative office space on most of it (I believe the plot of land that ended up being used for Rockit staging). There was also mention of building housing for their own college/internship program, but I believe they filled that need in agreements with realtors on the surrounding property to the north or west of the resort. There is currently some strong rumors with a decently high possibility of realization of a water park on property, and that would likely use the plot next to the current resort (can't think of the name right now). I do not know what happened to the plans for the administrative/office building on the larger plot, but it was announced a little before the rug got pulled out from under the economy.

 

[Chevross]

I would too but the popular rumor is a value type resort, not owned and run by Lowes, to be built on property... Not sure how credible the rumor is though it makes sense... A value resort on property would be a nice addition...

Both could fit, maybe not easily, but if the land is worked right and transportation could be planned out, it could be possible. I believe the most trouble with this idea would be the parking and transportation.

I know that they had announced plans, and I believe very vague "art" for the use of that larger plot along Turkey Lake. At the time it included administrative office space on most of it (I believe the plot of land that ended up being used for Rockit staging). There was also mention of building housing for their own college/internship program, but I believe they filled that need in agreements with realtors on the surrounding property to the north or west of the resort. There is currently some strong rumors with a decently high possibility of realization of a water park on property, and that would likely use the plot next to the current resort (can't think of the name right now). I do not know what happened to the plans for the administrative/office building on the larger plot, but it was announced a little before the rug got pulled out from under the economy.

Water park? Don't they have an agreement with Wet 'N Wild that fills that void? Or have I missed something...

I guess they could build their own Water park if they wanted. I'll admit I'm biased against when it comes to water parks as I'm not the biggest fan of them and I believe the plot of land has much more potential than that on a personal opinion, but I understand a lot of people do enjoy water parks (probably more enjoy than dislike), especially in the sunny and hot Florida area.