News Park attendance showing significant softness heading into the Fall 2018

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Same here, coming up on 4 years soon. And Star Wars at this point isn't really sweetening the pot, probably closer to poisoning it for me. As desperate as HWS is for attractions, I don't think it's anywhere close to enough and will make the place pretty unpleasant for at least a year or two.

After seeing six flags toy story during one of the now SLOWEST times of the year...you are 100% correct in your predictions...I fear

 

[MuteSuperstar]

After seeing six flags toy story during one of the now SLOWEST times of the year...you are 100% correct in your predictions...I fear

Funny you mention six flags, I was just thinking, imagine a park like Magic Mountain or a Kings Island withering away to like 6 attractions of any merit like the Studios. Of course that would never happen, different dynamic with a regional, singular park obviously (they'd be shuttered within 2 seasons), but Disney has had the luxury of being complacent with the built in audience for a park they let languish for far too long.

 

[flynnibus]

I keep getting told that the price increases were a way for Disney to thin the herd a bit and keep park attendance at a comfortable level,

You were told wrong. Prices are increased because the market will bear them and Disney is capitalizing on it. "comfortable levels" hasn't been any part of it.

 

[Princess Leia]

I ended up helping a coworker plan some ideas for her sister-in-law’s trip for next spring, and I could help but think how relatively calm the parks will probably be then. Sure, it will be over spring break, but I assume that a lot of parents will choose to go over spring break 2020 or 2021 instead.

 

[RustySpork]

You were told wrong. Prices are increased because the market will bear them and Disney is capitalizing on it. "comfortable levels" hasn't been any part of it.

Wrong.

'As for demand pricing, Iger said one of the hoped-for "byproducts" from that move is the reduction of crowds during peak times.' - http://www.latimes.com/entertainmen...isney-shareholder-meeting-20160303-story.html

'“We have to look at ways to spread out our attendance throughout the year so we can accommodate demand and avoid bursting at the seams,” Walt Disney Parks and Resorts Chairman Bob Chapek said to the Wall Street Journal, concerning the possibility of dynamic pricing.' - http://time.com/money/4061526/disney-price-changes-increase/

 

[coasterphil]

Disney area hotels are looking at recession type numbers for August/September. This is always a slow period for the market, but it’s dropped significantly compared to last year. Last year was skewed with Irma though, because for every vacation that got cancelled there was a FL resident dying to fill the room.

Can’t speak for the rest of Orlando, but anecdotally as a resident, doesn’t seem like there are a ton of people elsewhere either. I believe the CVB had anticipated a slowdown for the entire market leading into/through ‘19 but I don’t have the figures handy.

 

[Dad 2 M & M]

Yeah, but to those who are coming, and paid full price for their tickets and rooms, and are expecting an appropriate experience for their money, it's a slap in the face to get to WDW and find out they'll be waiting an hour to check in, waiting an hour for a bus, waiting an hour to get through security, and then waiting an hour -- per ride -- to ride anything... all because the executives need to protect their bonus checks.

Be careful with the "paid full price for their tickets and rooms", as we always stay on property and pay the AP discounted rate. Our expectations do not change when paying said reduced rate......love the bonus checks dig......

Easiest was to tell the forecast softness is sustained is to watch for those special packages coming soon......

 

[Dad 2 M & M]

You were told wrong. Prices are increased because the market will bear them and Disney is capitalizing on it. "comfortable levels" hasn't been any part of it.

Watch it homie....next thing you know someone clever will quote Execs from Disney as if they believe what those execs are saying! People always buy the line " raise prices to reduce crowd levels". Clearly it's because the softness of the elastically of demand in the price.....

If a Disney Exec said it, it must be true...right?

 

[RustySpork]

Watch it homie....next thing you know someone clever will quote Execs from Disney as if they believe what those execs are saying! People always buy the line " raise prices to reduce crowd levels". Clearly it's because the softness of the elastically of demand in the price.....

If a Disney Exec said it, it must be true...right?

Hence the

 

[phillip9698]

People who visit a lot like to use their own special tricks and tips to personalize their trip and historically find a small bit of value in the vast expanse of a WDW vacation. Finding value there in certain meals, drinks, snacks, experiences, etc., used to be a rewarding bit of happiness. Disney has taken a military-level approach to seeking any guest saving opportunities or hidden values and eliminated them at every level. People find their own happy places in a wide variety of things. Maybe a $3 Dole whip a few years ago was enough of a smile-maker to get a vacation planned around it. Disney has eliminated almost all of the old ways to wring value out of a vacation. Seek and destroy. That along with the complete over-estimation of the price value of the 'Disney Difference' has set the place on a course littered with missed expectations and angry guests. The 'Disney Difference' of 10 years ago, 20 years ago has been filtered so heavily that it is nearly unrecognizable. Free resort parking? Long operation hours for the entrance price? Unique merchandise? All-in-one pricing? These things mattered. Some spouses need selling points to get their significant other to agree to a future trip. Most of these are gone and replaced by rebuttal points in defense of not going and getting attached to the money vacuum again. Its a long march back to lower crowds year-round but most of these things combined with what price hikes will be coming with SW:GE will keep pushing the numbers farther down.

The part about unique merchandise rings true for me. At my old job I was in Orlando frequently and it always gave me to joy go to Disney and bring someone back something that could only be found in the parks, something other than a t-shirt. It sucks when you see that the majority of the items there are also available at Amazon, Wal-Mart, etc....

 

[ParentsOf4]

Beyond what they expected due to the "we'll wait until star wars opens" crowd?

Historically, WDW used to see significant drops in attendance the entire year before the opening of a major addition.

However, this is less prevalent in recent years.

My guess is that September's softness is a result of a rush to see Toy Story Land in the summer while school was still on break. A few weeks does not make an attendance trend. I wouldn't read too much into it just yet.

 

[the.dreamfinder]

Search Priceline right now for Disney hotels this month. They’ve been dumping deluxe and moderate rooms on there and the prices,particularly for the deluxes like Yatch Club and the Poly, are closer to their actual value.
AKL $232/night (62% off)
BW $296/night (60% off)
GF $527/night (25% off)
Poly $412/night (48% off)
YC $294/night (61% off)

Swolphin $156-160/night
Coronado $192/night (33% off)

CB $185/night (36% off)
AoA $208/night

 

[Dad 2 M & M]

Historically, WDW used to see significant drops in attendance the entire year before the opening of a major addition.

However, this is less prevalent in recent years.

My guess is that September's softness is a result of a rush to see Toy Story Land in the summer while school was still on break. A few weeks does not make an attendance trend. I wouldn't read too much into it just yet.

Sounds feasible.....we'll know more if larger than normal discounts/marketing blitz are seen this Fall. That would speak volumes

 

[DisneyDebRob]

You do get one of my specialty jailbroken magic bands as well. We have many designs (Dr. Who, iCarly, Star Trek, Kroger, Fast and Furious, CVS, University of Idaho etc.) that aren't offered by Disney. You really need one if you want all your fastpasses to work. I also guarantee same day dining reservations at the sit down of your choice, provided that its Yak and Yeti.

I do want that Star Trek band.

 

[Master Yoda]

I do want that Star Trek band.

Don't lie. You know you are going to get the iCarley band in every color.

The magenta one is particularly nice. Not that I have 3 of them or anything.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Watch it homie....next thing you know someone clever will quote Execs from Disney as if they believe what those execs are saying! People always buy the line " raise prices to reduce crowd levels". Clearly it's because the softness of the elastically of demand in the price.....

If a Disney Exec said it, it must be true...right?

Hence the

It’s almost like my brain has been stepping out on me and telling youz guys what to type

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Sounds feasible.....we'll know more if larger than normal discounts/marketing blitz are seen this Fall. That would speak volumes

Indeed...I’ve commented in several places about ap discounts for 2019...specifically DVC.

Here’s the conundrum: they should issue the exact same discount as last year...I have no doubt that’s what their numbers say...

However...that ticket has always come which a 1 year activation window...which could cover all of 2020 (I would probalgy do that)

So that’s a pickle.
If I were planning (armchair)...I would give a bigger (50% discount) and do it calendar year...thereby creating brain stress for we psychos. That’s how I would play.

All kinds of ways to spin it too...

 

[Dad 2 M & M]

Indeed...I’ve commented in several places about ap discounts for 2019...specifically DVC.

Here’s the conundrum: they should issue the exact same discount as last year...I have no doubt that’s what their numbers say...

However...that ticket has always come which a 1 year activation window...which could cover all of 2020 (I would probalgy do that)

So that’s a pickle.
If I were planning (armchair)...I would give a bigger (50% discount) and do it calendar year...thereby creating brain stress for we psychos. That’s how I would play.

All kinds of ways to spin it too...

I expect the discounts would target non-AP guests.....and probably full package (room/tickets/dining) have the most attractive discounts. Maybe packages that would include a hard ticket for each guest in the party.....packages of 6 days or longer would almost certainly capture more than one hard ticket event (morning, evening,dessert party, etc)

Now, again, that is speculating soft attendance forecast is realized AND sustained.......

A couple of notes
1 - We (DW and DD x 2) believe Disney could have raised prices even HIGHER and not seen the attendance drop any more than it has (or it is speculated to have dropped). Our thought is Disney didn't raise them even higher as they didn't want any more negative press.....didn't want to chip their tooth any more than they already have

2- This Fall we have two trips planned, and are considering a third if we can combine a trip to either Jacksonville or Tampa (travel for the NFL). We HOPE the crowds are sparse....

 

[matt9112]

Do you really expect anyone to tell the whole truth in advertising?

"It is a fair kid section" does not exactly open wallets.

exspect no...make the world a better place absolutely.

to be fair i let my AP expire and i hear ads for APs all over the radio. if pass holders suck so much (compared to tourists) why are they pushing that? nah universal is nicer to me for my money do i miss disney? yes but maybe some other time.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I expect the discounts would target non-AP guests.....and probably full package (room/tickets/dining) have the most attractive discounts. Maybe packages that would include a hard ticket for each guest in the party.....packages of 6 days or longer would almost certainly capture more than one hard ticket event (morning, evening,dessert party, etc)

Now, again, that is speculating soft attendance forecast is realized AND sustained.......

A couple of notes
1 - We (DW and DD x 2) believe Disney could have raised prices even HIGHER and not seen the attendance drop any more than it has (or it is speculated to have dropped). Our thought is Disney didn't raise them even higher as they didn't want any more negative press.....didn't want to chip their tooth any more than they already have

2- This Fall we have two trips planned, and are considering a third if we can combine a trip to either Jacksonville or Tampa (travel for the NFL). We HOPE the crowds are sparse....

The flaw (and I’m not sure you’re making it...so bare with me) is that package discounts are targeted first and then when they don’t bite...they aren’t showing up.

It’s not like somebody in Rapid City or poopooo on Kent will see it and say “we weren’t gonna go...but six months from now? Sure!”

That’s not how it works. That ship has 99% sailed.

When things are soft...you go to the backstop:
1. Aps
2. Dvc
3. Florida residents