News Park attendance showing significant softness heading into the Fall 2018

[monothingie]

Maybe don't call people out for BS when you don't know what you're talking about? From the Q3 earnings call:

"Occupancy at our domestic hotels was down about 2 percentage points to 86%, reflecting reduced room inventory due to room refurbishments and conversions."

Reduced inventory due to refurbishments and conversions results in reduced occupancy percentage. If your theory were correct, exactly the opposite would be true.

First you said quarterly report, not the conference call. Two different things entirely.

Second in the 10-k annual report it states that occupancy is based on available room nights. Available room nights is a variable number since 100% of rooms are never available for use. As the op that you quoted mentioned they can not use these rooms are not available. As part of their occupancy calculations as shown these rooms are not counted in inventory as a total percentage of available rooms. From an accounting perspective the “cost” of these unavailable rooms fall into a different category.

120 total rooms, 20 are out of service, and 80 are full. The total available inventory is 100 room and calculated occupancy rate is 80% not 67%.

 

[Brad Bishop]

Wouldn't the better move be to fully staff and operate the parks. If attendance is soft, great, all the guests get a wonderful experience, making them more likely to return. Doesn't that seem like the better long term strategery?

There's no "wonderful experience" line-item on the spreadsheet.

I'm pretty sure it's pretty simple to them: If the park attendance is getting soft then they have to:
1) reduce staff (can't pay staff just to stand around, right?)
2) increase tickets to make up the difference
3) More "special events" involving cupcakes and viewing areas that were always there but they can now capitalize on and charge for.

I may be too rough on them but this is the current management we're talking about and it certainly seems that this is how they operate.

 

[Rodan75]

Like the retreat of the ocean beachside before the tsunami hits...

I love that analogy.

 

[BigThunderMatt]

Calling you out for BS. Please actually look at any of TWDC quarterly filings. There is no such information in there. For accounting perspective assets that are under renovation or construction are treated differently.

This is however partially reflected in the 10-K report where it was noted that the occupancy calculation is based on available room nights . What was noted was that there was a decrease in capacity because of this, but the occupancy calculation was based on the available inventory number. As the previous poster mentioned.

Thank you. I mean, I just worked there but what do I know right? Clearly what I saw on my computer monitor and what was hammered into my brain on a nightly basis by management was not accurate information. Some people just feel they have to be the be-all, end-all of knowledge on WDW you know?

 

[StarshipDisney]

Maybe, just maybe, enough people are finally so fed up with price increases, service decreases, parking fees, getting thrown out of the park early for special events, and so on that it is having an impact on attendance. Disney may have finally found where the tipping point is....

...HEAR...HEAR....Well said!

I love Disney and have since my first visit in 1972...and I admit that I am paying a lot extra beyond the Magic Your Way Package for our Dec 2018 trip including the AK Ultimate Nights of Adventure Tour ($530.38), Highway in the Sky Dine Around ($359.98), and Fantasmic Dessert/VIP Viewing Experience ($78) among a few others. I did this because it seems the only way to really enjoy Disney anymore is to pay for these extras. But then they take away the novelty of taking a few little shampoo/conditioner bottles home; start charging for parking at the resorts; and incorporating every little "Penny Anny" measure they can think of to save a few bucks and lessen the guest experience...and yes...I have to wonder if I have a breaking point and stop my trips to Disney.

Guess I am not there yet, but I am not sure how much more I am willing to spend or many more Disney "cost saving" measures I can take.

 

[olie64]

I think October will be the telltale because of the fall breaks....probably not ghost town but hopefully lower than the past years.

Yeah that's why we are going Fall break, my wife and I are both teachers.

 

[janoimagine]

No that is part of regular patterns that Disney fully plans for. This is unexpected softness.

Well when they continually nickel and dime the guest with uncharge events, premium viewing areas, desert parties, ect. This had to be expected, they have taken corporate greed to a new level.

 

[disneyworlddad]

Judging from hotel prices on dates in October you wouldn't know that.

 

[RustySpork]

Wasn't this by design? Wasn't it their plan to push locals and lower income guests out and drive up prices to compensate for lower attendance? Sounds like it's not working out as expected, BIG SURPRISE!

Spoiler

Note the links..

 

[SteamboatJoe]

WDW is certainly bucking the trend. This year should have been gangbusters....

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/airlines-say-booming-us-economy-led-to-record-summer-travel

This is really interesting and potentially not a good sign for Disney. I complained a page or so back about how much the cost of flying impacts my travel budget but it seems that was not the case this summer for many.

 

[George]

Why can't I get a fast pass to Seven Dwarfs and FoP then?

Thanks to my algorithm I reserve 5700 fastpass slots for each of these attractions daily. $8.95 a fastpass. You can rent them at “Jorge’s flight of passage and/or 8 dwarves mine train fastpass rental site for Animal Kingdom or Walt Disney World/Disney’s Magic Kingdom.net.” Couldn’t do 7 dwarves...site name already taken.

 

[PREMiERdrum]

For what it's worth... Without *any* pushback, I just got a reduction of $48/night/room on a block of nearly 60 rooms I have held for a band/choir group trip for next spring break at All Star Music.

 

[ryguy]

I am all for attendance shrinking, the last 5 years or so in the parks have not been fun. I simply don't go in them anymore. The parks have been stale and chock full of people. Then when they build a ride you either barely can get a fast pass or you have to wait three hours. No thank you. Then you have tiered fast passes, that really chaps my ... Truthfully a Disney vacation now is pretty stressful between the insane crowds and the year out planning. It also can be confusing for those who are novice about how things work planning your trip. No wonder people are choosing not to go.

 

[smile]

Thanks to my algorithm I reserve 5700 fastpass slots for each of these attractions
daily. $8.95 a fastpass. You can rent them at “Jorge’s flight of passage and/or 8 dwarves mine train fastpass rental site for Animal Kingdom or Walt Disney World/Disney’s Magic Kingdom.net.” Couldn’t do 7 dearves...site name already taken.

i'll vouch, fwiw -
jorge's a good man

now, they don't say 'disney' ...but they work just the same

 

[Figments Friend]

Well something seems of have changed over the last few days i have been here.
Staffing at the Resort I am currently staying in ('ASMovies' ) is now way down compared to when I arrived, at least at the front desk and food court.
I totally understand scheduling and shifting needs of the periods of the day / night but something seemed 'off' to me.

This morning I noticed only one CM manning the check in counter..with a long line of people waiting.
Also only one helping several people waiting at concierge.
I probably would not have noticed if not for the need to buy a HallowParty ticket last minute.
The people waiting behind me were asking the desk staff if they had more Cast they could have behind the counter.
There was a very nice suited lead or perhaps the hotel manager also present talking to Guests for a time while I was waiting.

Not sure if this is directly related, but thought it worth a mention.

-

 

[ColdSarsaparilla]

They may have finally battered us loyal guests enough to the point where attendance takes an uncomfortable dip whenever there aren't hordes of casual vacationers trampling the place.

 

[The_Jobu]

trim back labor and begin cost saving measures.

Ugh. It's this kind of stuff that makes me not want to visit.

 

[Wendy Pleakley]

Maybe, just maybe, enough people are finally so fed up with price increases, service decreases, parking fees, getting thrown out of the park early for special events, and so on that it is having an impact on attendance. Disney may have finally found where the tipping point is....

I've seen this sentiment commonly expressed every single year going back, no exaggeration, decades.

Disney has always "gone too far", and yet attendance and prices keep going up and up and up.

 

[RustySpork]

That’s happenstance. If there were zero named hurricanes this year, people would still be reacting to last year. Plans didn’t get made for September 2018 in August, and locals don’t stay home when there is no hurricane; we tiptoe around them every year.

This is exactly right, what follows is an actual demonstration of a fellow Floridian tiptoeing around hurricane Matthew.

Spoiler

 

[djkidkaz]

It’s funny how people judge Disney for cutting labor or using whatever tactic they see fit to adjust for the unexpected slump in attendance. People aren’t not coming to Disney because they sent Timmy the CP home early to cut some labor rather than keep him and pay him to stand outside and play hula hoop. If people aren’t showing up it’s due to a bigger issue. Maybe competition, staleness of products and offerings, weather, waiting for upcoming projects like SW:GE, etc. Disney or any company has to react to these situations quickly to minimize losses. If I see that they are doing something that is effecting my vacation experience with them then that is bad, but if cost cutting is happening and I don’t see it or am not effected by it then do what ya gotta do Disney.