News Park attendance showing significant softness heading into the Fall 2018

[matt9112]

The flaw (and I’m not sure you’re making it...so bare with me) is that package discounts are targeted first and then when they don’t bite...they aren’t showing up.

It’s not like somebody in Rapid City or poopooo on Kent will see it and say “we weren’t gonna go...but six months from now? Sure!”

That’s not how it works. That ship has 99% sailed.

When things are soft...you go to the backstop:
1. Aps
2. Dvc
3. Florida residents

i think you meant red headed stepchildrens boot strap not back stop

 

[BigThunderMatt]

if pass holders suck so much (compared to tourists) why are they pushing that?

Because they still want your money for it, they just don't care that you have a crappy experience. And since AP's are pretty much impossible to get refunded without someone dying (and sometimes not even then) and the payment plan ones will go to collections if you don't pay, they get their money whether you get what you consider to be your money's worth out of the pass or not.

 

[Dad 2 M & M]

The flaw (and I’m not sure you’re making it...so bare with me) is that package discounts are targeted first and then when they don’t bite...they aren’t showing up.

It’s not like somebody in Rapid City or poopooo on Kent will see it and say “we weren’t gonna go...but six months from now? Sure!”

That’s not how it works. That ship has 99% sailed.

When things are soft...you go to the backstop:
1. Aps
2. Dvc
3. Florida residents

Agree somewhat as they need full parks, however, the resorts are not at and are well below "capacity" and I expect that shortfall to be targeted.....that's why I included the full blown package in my speculation......they need peeps in the Parks AND Resorts

Because they still want your money for it, they just don't care that you have a crappy experience. And since AP's are pretty much impossible to get refunded without someone dying (and sometimes not even then) and the payment plan ones will go to collections if you don't pay, they get their money whether you get what you consider to be your money's worth out of the pass or not.

Only thing I'd add would be they STILL want APs in the Parks spending money; in Disney's eyes just buying the AP and not using it would still be a partial failure as they figure some minimum $$$ spent above the price of the pass. No telling how deep an actuary goes in predicting additional $$ spent by the purchaser, as well as who has to answer if an AP holder NEVER goes thru a gate.....

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Because they still want your money for it, they just don't care that you have a crappy experience. And since AP's are pretty much impossible to get refunded without someone dying (and sometimes not even then) and the payment plan ones will go to collections if you don't pay, they get their money whether you get what you consider to be your money's worth out of the pass or not.

That’s who they lean on when booking are down or there is a recession.

A lot easier to get last minute travel from ap, DVC, and Floridians specifically.


And while “targeting” rooms with not often visitors on packages is a great idea - in theory - the reality is they plan/book much farther out on the whole. So If rooms aren’t booked a year out...you got a problem.
Six months? You break the glass
2 months? Ultimately you can’t move packages.

Remember: the place isn’t cheap at all.

 

[Lensman]

Nobody goes there anymore. It's too crowded.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Or the best theory:
Nobody goes there anymore. It's too crowded.

Good call, Yogi

 

[Brad Bishop]

But can I earn KrogerPlus points by using it... That could be a game changer...

Seriously, though - count me in the boat of regular attendees who are on a hiatus because of the cost, crowds, staffing, etc. I used to have an AP and make 4-5 trips a year. I don't plan to return until 2020 at the earliest. I just can't justify the cost given that the increase in experience hasn't really followed. As people say, "they will keep coming." And, I agree. But, the response I'm getting from the vast majority of friends is very lukewarm. It was a one-time trip they had to do for the kids. Everyone is hoping they don't have to do it again for a long time.

As always, time will tell...

I was a regular passholder for years. I gave up around 2015.

It was all of that:
- TS meals weren't as good
- TS meals were even more expensive (to the point of feeling really stupid paying the bill)
- crowds were really bad
- the experience wasn't good
- the price was really high

Since then, from this forum, it seems (and none of this encourages me to return):
- nickel and diming (pay for parking at resorts as example)
- endless "cupcake parties"
- cabanas
- Letting things go / not fixing things (monorail)

Basically, they expect premium prices based on your own nostalgia and not your previous experience. If they don't fix something then it doesn't affect the ticket sales so it doesn't matter and is just left.

Add to it that they let the parks languish and, yes, you can point to them working on a few things now to try to fix it - it's stuff they should have worked on over the last 20 years. To me, by the time they're done they will have upgrade it all to where it should have been in 2010 (or even earlier). Add into that the theming is kind of ignored in favor of shoe-horning an IP into whatever location.

 

[Disneyhead'71]

With a strong economy and record air travel this Summer, for WDW to be down, that implies problems with the product itself. People are traveling, just not to WDW.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I was a regular passholder for years. I gave up around 2015.

It was all of that:
- TS meals weren't as good
- TS meals were even more expensive (to the point of feeling really stupid paying the bill)
- crowds were really bad
- the experience wasn't good
- the price was really high

Since then, from this forum, it seems (and none of this encourages me to return):
- nickel and diming (pay for parking at resorts as example)
- endless "cupcake parties"
- cabanas
- Letting things go / not fixing things (monorail)

Basically, they expect premium prices based on your own nostalgia and not your previous experience. If they don't fix something then it doesn't affect the ticket sales so it doesn't matter and is just left.

Add to it that they let the parks languish and, yes, you can point to them working on a few things now to try to fix it - it's stuff they should have worked on over the last 20 years. To me, by the time they're done they will have upgrade it all to where it should have been in 2010 (or even earlier). Add into that the theming is kind of ignored in favor of shoe-horning an IP into whatever location.

It’s hard to properly express just how dead on this is...

It represents the problems with both the product and the consumer.

 

[ABQ]

With a strong economy and record air travel this Summer, for WDW to be down, that implies problems with the product itself. People are traveling, just not to WDW.

Yeah, that's why I posted before that I'd love to know if Universal is seeing any softness (and I hope they are not, as it would be a wonderful smack upside the head to WDW)

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

With a strong economy and record air travel this Summer, for WDW to be down, that implies problems with the product itself. People are traveling, just not to WDW.

Yeah...but if you peel back the “onion” on that great economy....it’s not so strong in serving a mass tourist destination such as Orlando.

Not everyone is into tracking their vanguard or blackrock, you know?

And air travel seemed to be a lot cheaper this year - at least to me on the eastern seaboard...so that could be the culprit.

But that’s where the ship runs aground. Airlines drop to fill seats...yet disney charges more and more. It’s an unsustainable divergent path if you want 60 mil visitors...and that’s the goal.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Yeah, that's why I posted before that I'd love to know if Universal is seeing any softness (and I hope they are not, as it would be a wonderful smack upside the head to WDW)

They probably are...but less severe.

The reality is that universal can say they’ve built more since 2009 to justify their price increases...lower starting point, more tangible gain.

That is the failure of iger in orlando...letting an advantage shrink.

 

[monothingie]

I was a regular passholder for years. I gave up around 2015.

It was all of that:
- TS meals weren't as good
- TS meals were even more expensive (to the point of feeling really stupid paying the bill)
- crowds were really bad
- the experience wasn't good
- the price was really high

Since then, from this forum, it seems (and none of this encourages me to return):
- nickel and diming (pay for parking at resorts as example)
- endless "cupcake parties"
- cabanas
- Letting things go / not fixing things (monorail)

Basically, they expect premium prices based on your own nostalgia and not your previous experience. If they don't fix something then it doesn't affect the ticket sales so it doesn't matter and is just left.

Add to it that they let the parks languish and, yes, you can point to them working on a few things now to try to fix it - it's stuff they should have worked on over the last 20 years. To me, by the time they're done they will have upgrade it all to where it should have been in 2010 (or even earlier). Add into that the theming is kind of ignored in favor of shoe-horning an IP into whatever location.

I tend to agree, but I think the problem is more the unintended consequences of MDE. You have to make a dinner reservation 180 days out otherwise you don’t get access to the good stuff. If your staying on property you have to make your FP choices 60/90 days out, otherwise you don’t get access to the good stuff, if you’re staying off property or a local, you’re going to be waiting in line with no chance.

Disney up keep has improved, and for the most part your in park experience is better than it had been, but the lack of access for the vast majority is a major turn off. (Unless you want to pay a premium for it.)

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I tend to agree, but I think the problem is more the unintended consequences of MDE. You have to make a dinner reservation 180 days out otherwise you don’t get access to the good stuff. If your staying on property you have to make your FP choices 60/90 days out, otherwise you don’t get access to the good stuff, if you’re staying off property or a local, you’re going to be waiting in line with no chance.

Disney up keep has improved, and for the most part your in park experience is better than it had been, but the lack of access for the vast majority is a major turn off. (Unless you want to pay a premium for it.)

I agree with you about mde...but not the last part.

If you pay full price (at a much higher rate) and you can’t access the rides or restaurants in a user friendly matter...creating tiers not really reflective in the prices...then the experience has not improved.

Quite the opposite...in real terms.

 

[marni1971]

LOL, now you ready for a CM to ask you about a brief survey..

I’ve had three. And they were anything but brief. More like very revealing.

 

[Andrew C]

With a strong economy and record air travel this Summer, for WDW to be down, that implies problems with the product itself. People are traveling, just not to WDW.

were their numbers down this summer, or are they just forecasting this to be the case come fall?

 

[Dad 2 M & M]

I tend to agree, but I think the problem is more the unintended consequences of MDE. You have to make a dinner reservation 180 days out otherwise you don’t get access to the good stuff. If your staying on property you have to make your FP choices 60/90 days out, otherwise you don’t get access to the good stuff, if you’re staying off property or a local, you’re going to be waiting in line with no chance.

Disney up keep has improved, and for the most part your in park experience is better than it had been, but the lack of access for the vast majority is a major turn off. (Unless you want to pay a premium for it.)

I agree with you about mde...but not the last part.

If you pay full price (at a much higher rate) and you can’t access the rides or restaurants in a user friendly matter...creating tiers not really reflective in the prices...then the experience has not improved.

Quite the opposite...in real terms.

One of the things improved is the access to the "old e-ticket" rides. That is a big deal for our tribe. One can now ride ToT and the R&R coaster with minimal wait, mostly due to TSL opening....Soaring is another ride now possible....it used to be an hour and a half ordeal.....

Disney has built 2 new Lands, one each in DHS/AK, are building another in DHS, expanded Fantasyland, and are building two new E-tic rides in Epcot. While they were more than a bit late with these, the execution not exactly smooth, and the "better experience" not yet realized for some, they have NOT stood pat......

Point here is they did not stand still....plenty of issues there, but standing still is not one of them....

 

[Disneyhead'71]

were their numbers down this summer, or are they just forecasting this to be the case come fall?

Last Summer was soft. This Summer even more so. And this fall numbers have plummeted. 30% off of already downward adjusted projections is what I'm hearing.

In a strong economy, that's bad.

And yes, Universal's numbers are soft, but not as bad as Disney's. No matter what anyone says, Universal still piggy backs off of WDW to a degree. Universal does have it's own demographic, but day trippers from Disney are still a portion of their market. So when Disney is down, it effects the entire market.

 

[wishiwere@wdw]

Epcot seems to be where I’m seeing this the most (studios always seems crowded right now even when it isn’t lol). We are regularly seeing TT at 30 minutes and Soaring at 10 (aka walk-on). I usually use these two attractions as a gauge on how the crowds are and so far, it’s crazy light. Especially on a weeknight.

Yes, I understand people are boozing around the world which pulls folks out of Future world but the past few years of F&W meant insane crowds either way. I’m sure it will pick up once the weather starts to cool down a bit but for now, it is kinda nice .

IMO, this is nothing more than folks holding off due to Star Wars. We’ve got plenty of friends up north that are absolutely holding off on a trip this fall in favor of seeing when the new land opens.

 

[monothingie]

I agree with you about mde...but not the last part.

If you pay full price (at a much higher rate) and you can’t access the rides or restaurants in a user friendly matter...creating tiers not really reflective in the prices...then the experience has not improved.

Quite the opposite...in real terms.

I should have clarified, by in park experience, I meant in terms of upkeep and cleanliness, which has improved from 10-15 years ago. With regards to MDE, it has made it much worse.