Numbers, Cars and Quality ...

[WDW1974]

Start chanting Matt Ouimet, Matt Ouimet, Matt Ouimet ...

He will never work for Disney again ... or at least so long as Iger, Rasulo and Staggs are there.

 

[WDW1974]

Leemac has said today that this isn't the case - so I wonder ...

IF he said that, then he is mistaken. OLC can absolutely build non-Disney IP parks. ... The only question is can they build them as part of the TDR. That is unclear.

 

[Clever Name]

The myth is that DVC members go exclusively to WDW parks. The truth is DVC members tend to be value shoppers. DVC is, after all, primarily sold as a money-saving way to stay at Deluxe Resorts. You'd be surprised at the number of DVC members either bringing their own food or having food delivered to their room from local grocery stores. They do a lot of eating in the room, not eating at expensive WDW restaurants. It's the regular onsite guests, visiting WDW once every 5 years, who tend to splurge.

Yet DVC rental points are sold on the open market for pennies on the dollar. Sounds to me as if the real value shoppers are the ones who rent DVC points from DVC members suffering from buyer's remorse.

 

[WDW1974]

While DVC provides a niche market for WDW it is hardly a blip on park attendance. There are roughly 3,000 DVC rooms at WDW which makes up about 10% of the 30,000 total rooms on property. That doesn't count the tens of thousands of off property rooms or locals on day trips. A conservative estimate would be DVCers make up less than 5% of the daily attendance numbers. In reality that number is probably much smaller during peak times. It's crazy to think that TDO would let the parks suffer and not worry about attracting new guests because they know that 5% of their guests bought DVC and are locked in to coming back. Selling DVC points is VERY profitable. This is where the true benefit comes in financially. Granted, this is a short term gain but that seems to be the focus these days.

I think a lot of DVC owners are less than thrilled with the state of the parks. They are using points on DCL and other off WDW properties or maybe through RCI and even when staying in Orlando leaving to hit Uni or Seaworld. That is probably why Disney offered DVC members the huge discount on the premium AP this year. DVC owners are not stuck with free dining as the primary discount at WDW so in a lot of ways they have more flexibility to spend time off property.

Yes. DVCers aren't nearly as large a group on a daily basis as Disney spinners would have you believe.
Even more so is the crazy notion that WDW resort guests are a larger proportion of guests in the parks. Um, except during EMHs, that is not often the case. Do you know how many people visit Orlando daily? How many rooms/timeshares/vacation homes there are? Do you know how many guests are at WDW parks, water parks and DD on a daily basis?

All you have to do is look at the basic figures to extrapolate that far more guests are staying at the Hilton Orlando, the Sheraton LBV Resort, the Embassy Suites I-drive/CC, homes in Kissimmee or Davenport etc ... yet many fanbois have this crazy notion that everyone who visits WDW is paying $250 for a room at Coronado Springs.

 

[GoofGoof]

" Selling DVC points is VERY profitable. This is where the true benefit comes in financially."

Are you talking about selling points for the year or selling points outright in order to get out of DVC?

I would think that selling your points for they year would simply cover your maintenance fees for the year. But if people can sell their points for more kudos to them. Every time I ran the numbers for the amount of points I wanted the yearly fee's were around $1500. Which I can get a pretty nice room/house for that price for a week without dropping 20 large to get the points I needed. So the math never really worked for me. That's cool that Disney dropped the price for Annual passes for DVC members. DVC members deserve all the perks they can get for the money they shell out to be a member.

Selling points is profitable for Disney. Meaning building and selling DVC resorts. That is what I meant. Not owners selling their points. Most owners who rent points don't make a large profit and unless you bought in 5+ years ago you probably would have to sell at a loss if you wanted to outright sell your ownership to someone on the reslae market.

 

[ParentsOf4]

Yet DVC rental points are sold on the open market for pennies on the dollar. Sounds to me as if the real value shoppers are the ones who rent DVC points from DVC members suffering from buyer's remorse.

You might be interested in reading the following post for some DVC numbers:

http://forums.wdwmagic.com/threads/is-dvc-worth-it-if-i-already-get-40-off-rack.855625/#post-5221668

It's still possible to turn a modest profit buying into DVC and then renting your points to someone else.

The bigger point I was trying to make is that a lot of DVC members are WDW "regulars". They bought into DVC because they saw it as a less expensive way to stay at WDW Deluxe Resorts, which have not declined to the same degree as the theme parks. However, the theme parks have declined and, being regular visitors, DVC members have seen this. This is why, for example, WDW is offering DVC members a $399 PAP. It's not to get them to stay at DVC resorts; they are already doing that. It's to get them back into the parks. I just did a 6-night stay at BCV and BLT over Thanksgiving. We spent 2 days at WDW, the rest visiting the Boy Who Won't Be Named. DW really liked Universal in the cooler weather. In the past, we always seemed to visit in the heat, which really changes your impression of Universal.

The $399 PAP is WDW's attempt to get people like me back into the parks. Seeing that I paid $199 for my Universal AP, WDW's strategy is not working, at least not for me.

 

[Funmeister]

Yes. DVCers aren't nearly as large a group on a daily basis as Disney spinners would have you believe.
Even more so is the crazy notion that WDW resort guests are a larger proportion of guests in the parks. Um, except during EMHs, that is not often the case. Do you know how many people visit Orlando daily? How many rooms/timeshares/vacation homes there are? Do you know how many guests are at WDW parks, water parks and DD on a daily basis?

All you have to do is look at the basic figures to extrapolate that far more guests are staying at the Hilton Orlando, the Sheraton LBV Resort, the Embassy Suites I-drive/CC, homes in Kissimmee or Davenport etc ... yet many fanbois have this crazy notion that everyone who visits WDW is paying $250 for a room at Coronado Springs.

Would you agree though that there was a change in DVC strategy? In the beginning Disney purchased land all over the place for expansion of original Disneey resorts (including Times Square). There was a change in strategy that led to all of those options expire and purchased land to be sold. There was a huge build out on property with the thinking that DVCers would fill restaurants and continue to buy merchandise. I think the strategy is changing again. Also, what a lot of "fanbois" do not realize is that are numerous people who go into work at Team Disney (or is it Celebration now?) that do nothing but crunch numbers to determine how many rooms they need to discount to meet the magic occupancy percentage. You are more correct than anyone would care to believe!!!

 

[WDW1974]

I was at Disneyland in 1994 but spent part of 1995 in Germany (doing other things) and didn't make it back until 1996. So it *could* be that this happened in Anaheim too. But I never heard about it, so I'm guessing that it was an Orlando-only thing. I have not spoken with anyone in Orlando who volunteered this experience, but I can ask around!

I have heard rumors of this in O-Town many times, but never from anyone who actually was at one ... but it does sound like the mindset and timing on when their business modeling changed certainly fits.

 

[the.dreamfinder]

I am not sure of the contractual details beynd the fact the OLC could build multiple parks without Disney IP if they wanted. Disney, indeed, has control over the IP in TDL and TDS. As to under the banner having a non-Disney third gate, I don't know. But I also have no idea where they'd build any third gate. And they may well be looking at a different site where they wouldn't have the Disney name at all. But Ikspiari (the TDR version of DD) was built by them and is not controlled by Disney beyond having a Disney Store (like the chain) there and a DVC sales center in the old Planet Hollywood facility.

I recall reading an article earlier in the year where the OLC was looking at "New Recreational Ventures" outside of TDR.
EDIT: Here's the article I was referring to.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2008/10/07/oriental-land-idUST1610620081007

 

[WDW1974]

I will add that the slide at Disneyland *definitely* happened around 1994 and 1995, when the Empowerment Evolution and Total Quality Management started to permeate the culture. I can't speak to whether the slide was around in WDW at the time. By the time I was East-coast based, in 2002, the slide was there, but it hadn't gained as much momentum as it would later in the 2000s. And the parks certainly didn't have nets everywhere.

At Disneyland, the Internet fans were a force to be sure, but the *deaths* occurring from shoddy maintenance also played a huge role. I hate to say it, but WDW may coast along until there are deaths. I hate to say this next sentence even more, but I fear that may happen sooner rather than later. There are now nets in two places. Will the next thing to fall land on someone?

There already have been ... from the monorail crash to the Primeval Whirl incidents to the boy colliding with the bus at FW ... I guess what you mean is there has to prominent deaths ... like a Space Mountain car derailing from the top killing three and injuring three others and making international headlines before someone pays attention?

 

[WDW1974]

Bill Sullivan and Bob Mathieson (WDW's Old Guard) were forced to "retire" on the same day in June 1994. Both men believed in the old WDW where show came before anything else. It's as good of a day as any to pick as the start of the decline.

Good point.

 

[GoofGoof]

Yes. DVCers aren't nearly as large a group on a daily basis as Disney spinners would have you believe.
Even more so is the crazy notion that WDW resort guests are a larger proportion of guests in the parks. Um, except during EMHs, that is not often the case. Do you know how many people visit Orlando daily? How many rooms/timeshares/vacation homes there are? Do you know how many guests are at WDW parks, water parks and DD on a daily basis?

All you have to do is look at the basic figures to extrapolate that far more guests are staying at the Hilton Orlando, the Sheraton LBV Resort, the Embassy Suites I-drive/CC, homes in Kissimmee or Davenport etc ... yet many fanbois have this crazy notion that everyone who visits WDW is paying $250 for a room at Coronado Springs.

Until a recent trip I never realized how many hotels/condos/timeshares there were in the area around WDW. I almost always stayed on property so the most I would see is during bus rides too/from Sea World or Uni or the airport. We stayed on International Drive next to Sea World a few years back and my son was still taking naps, but would only nap in the car on the trip. I took a long drive around the International Drive area (mostly sitting in trafffic) and was pretty much blown away by the amount of "stuff" crammed in that area. I am sure that for locals or more regular visitors it is not as shocking since it built up over time, but for me it was quite an eye opening experience.

 

[WDW1974]

Two things.

1. If a "coordinated" fan-based response was going to happen for WDW, I think it would've happened before now. The last decade+ has been a series of disappointments for the resort. Decling by degrees as Kevin Yee used to say. Not sure if he still talks about the resort in that way. But the point is, it doesn't happen overnight. What we're seeing in poor maintenance, lame additions, no new headlining attractions...it's been this way for years.

Absolutely. This isn't a 'past 3-5 years' deal ... this is systemic and began before DAK opened. I myself was still addicted to and blinded by the Pixie Dust, so I kept making excuses until the Milennium celebration came and went and ... everywhere I saw resort rooms that were falling apart and filthy, parks that were stale, cutbacks in every little Disney Detail (except price increases).

Kevin moved to the area in 2002, so all he's known is a decade of largely mediocrity. If he had moved here in 1982 or even 1992, his view on things would be a bit more negative than they are generally.

2. The WDW fan community is still divided. There may be more willingness to criticize WDW for what its become, but you still have a lot of people who are in lockstep with Mickey. The Yeti, the centerpiece of the last E-ticket, hasn't worked in how many years? It was operational for approximately a year after the ride opened?

They absolutely can't get their act together for anything (beyond bemoaning the LoW at EPCOT and Starbucks on MSUSA!) and that IS the problem. One of this site's biggest objects of drool said the same during drinks at the DLH in 2011. The fans are their own worst enemies. No one is really making much of a stink online here or social media/networking or in the real world about the important issues.

So, when they rip out the CoP ... and start charging for tiered access to FP+ (and some guests may not even have access to purchase it based on some plans I've heard) ... and add another DVC or three ... well, you print this post out and stick it in your 'I Hate the Spirit' altars.

I mean ... c'mon, imagine if Al Lutz's home resort was WDW and you had the Disco Yeti situation for what ... five years now? Do you know the type of harsh columns you'd be reading? You wouldn't be reading about how MAGICal BoG is, even if they sorta screwed up the continuity of the entire story to design it with the Beast everywhere when it clearly should have showcased the prince.

Speaking of guerilla tactics, someone should wear a costume and go stand on 192 with signs about Disney's deteriorating quality. Make it a publicity stunt. Obviously, Disney would have you arrested if you did it on property. I volunteer to take the 8-9 shift.

You could certainly have a protest across from DD at the Crossroads, where the media hangs out whenever something bad happens and Disney won't let them on property ... but there are other ways.

Me, I'd start by making life hell for the Celebration Place Social Media Cabal with comments on the Blog and emails and phone calls etc.

 

[WDW1974]

Are you referring to @The Mom or @Britt??

Neither.

I am speaking of a beauty with the hair and personality of Merida ... and who is handy with cutlery if the need arises.

The man married above his place in life if you catch my drift. You haven't lived until you've heard her talk about Disney fanbois. And people here think I'm rough ... that's so funny!!!

 

[WDW1974]

By the way, I am a DVC Member, and I am guilty of getting food from offsite as much as I can. I am not a fan of the clientele at Universal though. Therefore, I do head out west to DL and other places. However, I still enjoy heading the WDW at least once a year though.

I hear this a lot and wonder what it means.

I see plenty of trash everywhere I go in O-Town ... from UNI to the Grand Flo ... and I absolutely don't see more a--holes at UNI except possibly during HHNs.

 

[ScoutN]

I hear this a lot and wonder what it means.

I see plenty of trash everywhere I go in O-Town ... from UNI to the Grand Flo ... and I absolutely don't see more a--holes at UNI except possibly during HHNs.

Until recently Uni had a six flagsesque feel to me. Before the parks began getting MASSIVE plussing. It really felt like it was those who could not afford the Disney package. Now the tables have flipped to an extent and those who refused to constantly be raped in the wallet go to Uni and SWF. It's more of I know what he means but cannot explain it. I agree with HHN if it is anything like other parks.

Good stuff to share with you when you touch base.

 

[WDW1974]

The main reason you haven't yet seen a massive uprising about FP+ (I refuse to use their new name for it, since they haven't made it public yet) is that we don't KNOW for sure what it will be like in operation.

I agree, there is a great chance it will end in tears, and very bad things operationally. But there's also a chance that it has little impact (well, that the impact is a wash). Or even, a tiny chance it will make things better.

It boils down to total reservations. If they use the FP+ concept as an excuse to reduce the total reservations for a day, it will be a good thing. So if Space Mtn gives out 25,000 FastPasses in today's operation, next year what if it only gives out 15,000 - all of them through FP+ and none through traditional FP? That will mean longer standby lines, you say. Maybe. But if the tourists are allowed to only get four FP+ reservations per day, won't that mean fewer overall reservations in a day versus the current system? If so, the standby lines might have more people in them, but they will move faster.

If this blow this golden opportunity, though, then yeah. You can bet there will be an outcry. I have the article all but written in my head if they do it wrong.

Kevin, talk to anyone in park ops. This will be a huge disaster from an operational standpoint. Ask what they'll do with daily cascading failures (like when TT, Splash Mountain and RnRC all go down in one afternoon). Ask what will happen when people miss their times because Disney's wait staffs at Le Cellier were slow bringing the $40 lunch steak a la carte. ... And then think about what's going to happen when something once free for all is now something that can be bought by few. And think about the fact they are putting FP+ on everything ... so better to monitor their guests' movements and spending. Think about a cold mid January day when GMR normally would be 5 minutes-walk on, but suddenly has a 30 minute wait. Think about how many locals are gonna just say 'awe (expletive deleted) it' and stop coming.

This program right now has more holes than a slice of Swiss and the odor of cheese left in the car on a hot Florida day.

 

[WDW1974]

Would you agree though that there was a change in DVC strategy? In the beginning Disney purchased land all over the place for expansion of original Disneey resorts (including Times Square). There was a change in strategy that led to all of those options expire and purchased land to be sold. There was a huge build out on property with the thinking that DVCers would fill restaurants and continue to buy merchandise. I think the strategy is changing again. Also, what a lot of "fanbois" do not realize is that are numerous people who go into work at Team Disney (or is it Celebration now?) that do nothing but crunch numbers to determine how many rooms they need to discount to meet the magic occupancy percentage. You are more correct than anyone would care to believe!!!

Oh yes, absolutely. And it killed me because I loved the locales where Disney owned land or was considering building like NYC (Times Square), Newport Beach (SoCal), Rocky Mountains (CO), Lake Tahoe (NV) for starters.
DVC was supposed to expand nationally and, possibly then, internationally. It wasn't designed to build out WDW. Just as it wasn't planned to be added to EVERY deluxe resort (lowering their quality in the meantime). They totally changed the idea in the late 90s. ... And with Aulani's rough debut, I wonder if we'll ever see another DVC beyond WDW or, possibly, DLR.

They gave up such prime locales. Sad. I stayed in an AMAZING and HUGE Grand Villa at the Marriott Village overlooking Golf Disney at DLP and can't believe that DVC isn't there ... although I doubt they'd have a resort at the caliber of the Marriott.

 

[WDW1974]

I recall on another thread you giving WDW a grade of B-. I'm not sure what you thought of it in 1994 but I thought it was pretty much an A+ back then. In my mind, it's taken 18 years for the grade to slip from A+ to B-.

In '94 ... well, I had one of my best vacations when I spent the first nine nights the WL was open there ... so I am a bit biased. But I am not sure I'd have ever given WDW an A+ ... maybe around 1986 ... maybe even up to 1990 with all the new additions, the quality was still sky high.

I sorta recall giving WDW a B- now and that's where I'd place it overall ... maybe a C+ if I'm particularly unhappy ... but there are pieces of the resort that regularly fail my standards or would be graded like Ds.

Right now, I'd give DLR an A- by comparison.

TDR as a resort would be an A+ (but some parts lower).

 

[Funmeister]

Oh yes, absolutely. And it killed me because I loved the locales where Disney owned land or was considering building like NYC (Times Square), Newport Beach (SoCal), Rocky Mountains (CO), Lake Tahoe (NV) for starters.
DVC was supposed to expand nationally and, possibly then, internationally. It wasn't designed to build out WDW. Just as it wasn't planned to be added to EVERY deluxe resort (lowering their quality in the meantime). They totally changed the idea in the late 90s. ... And with Aulani's rough debut, I wonder if we'll ever see another DVC beyond WDW or, possibly, DLR.

They gave up such prime locales. Sad. I stayed in an AMAZING and HUGE Grand Villa at the Marriott Village overlooking Golf Disney at DLP and can't believe that DVC isn't there ... although I doubt they'd have a resort at the caliber of the Marriott.

Do you think the Aulani debacle was the main reason for abandoning Washington DC? Seems like there was re-thinking of buying up land again to expand only to regress after the Aulani screw up.