Numbers, Cars and Quality ...

[HMF]

At Disneyland, the Internet fans were a force to be sure, but the *deaths* occurring from shoddy maintenance also played a huge role.

If the Monarail incident a few years back is any indication I doubt that would change anything.

 

[Skyway]

"Skip the lines" sells well on a 30-second TV spot.

Disney has had more than a decade to get that message out to get ANY customers through their turnstiles. And yet, part of the reason the current FP system works is because only a fraction of park guests understand how to take advantage of it (otherwise all FPs would be sold out minutes after park opening). I'm not saying Disney hasn't communicated how FP works. But it appears they will have to work even harder to communicate that the old system no longer exists and that the new one is worth paying top dollar for. Clearly their low occupancy shows they haven't communicated the value of transportation, EMH, and all the other current perks of on-site hotels. In fact, they've had to discount and offer free dining just to maintain the low occupancy numbers they've got now.

Is FP+ really going to convince guests bound for the Marriotts and Hiltons to plunk down twice as much money to stay on-site instead? That's going to require quite a sales pitch that Disney will have to aggressively push on to customers (and not just wait for the customer to seek out on their own doing online research)

And will the financial benefit of selling more higher priced on-site rooms outweigh the potential loss of profit from disgruntled off-site guests if they're made to feel second class?

I understand part of the NextGen initiative is to create a cash-less payment system, making visitors less aware of how much money they're spending. That's smart business. So is the attempt to track crowd patterns to better budget staffing.

And what I think many fans forget is that much of that $1.5B is for modernizing technology throughout the property, including every cash register and hotel doorknob (the modern day equivalent of replacing all the 70's era metal door keys with 90's era magnetic swipe cards and all those old physical credit card imprint "rub" machines with electronic card readers). In that sense, Disney is embarking on a NextGen 2.0 right now.

But how in the world do they expect it to pay off for them?

 

[Cosmic Commando]

Continuing on the subject of inaccurate rumors. Leemac from LP.com refutes Lutz's claim about Carsland being planned for TDL:

"guests love Westernland - and that includes the railroad, Twain, canoes, TSI etc. They are part of the fabric of the park. Collectively they have a higher occupancy rate than RSR by a huge margin. The park can't afford to lose capacity. I'm also not sure thematically how you could blend in BTMRR and Critter Country.

Lutz was definitely reaching with that rumor - there are absolutely no plans by OLC to bring Cars Land to TDL. That doesn't mean it won't happen at some point in the future but it is not on the development path - it is pure guesswork by him and his TDA sources.

Worth also adding that under the licencing agreement OLC would be required to stump up a share of the R&D costs on Cars Land if they pulled the trigger next year. That is precisely why OLC have waited to bring Midway Mania, Star Tours II etc. to the park. They don't like to have to pay more than their own construction costs when they pick up a clone."

Who is right?

I also am interested in the rumor by '74 about a 3rd non-Disney park at TDR. I would love to see a non-Disney IP park executed at the level - and with the budget of - a DisneySea, but from the little I know, TWDC maintains controls over the content of the TDR parks. For example, I didn't think OLC could go out on its own and build, say, a Smurf ride by an outside design firm in TDL even if they had the strong desire, and as such OLC couldn't build a non-Disney/WDI 3rd Gate under the Tokyo DISNEY Resort banner. Is this thinking wrong? Any clarification on the Disney-OLC arrangement?

Either Leemac has poor reading comprehension or he is purposefully ignoring some things. If you use the numbers that Al gave, Mater's and Luigi's together have as much capacity as RSR does. Maybe Luigi's wouldn't make the trip, but they could add something else in that spot. It's still not fair to compare all of the RoA attractions to just RSR; you also get the shopping and dining with the rides. Al also said that closing most of the RoA early in the evening versus running Carsland the entire operating day was a factor.

 

[KevinYee]

I lived that era, both online from the alt.disney.disneyland usenet group to fairly regular visits to the decaying park that was Disneyland back then. There were many of us online that were commenting about it, just as there are many caring and concerned folks here doing the same, but Al Lutz was really the ringleader and key figure that got the online commentary crossing over to the traditional media in the late 1990's. What WDW needs is an Al Lutz.

As perhaps the person closest to this situation on the entire planet (having shared the columnist desk with Al both then and now, and being the WDW person for our site now), I can offer my view: what generated enormous traffic and attention from traditional media was not just the clever reporting. It was a combination of the clever reporting AND inside information. No one on the Internet, then or now, had sources like Al did (and presumably still does). Without inside information, his column would look to many newcomers like undeserved harsh criticism (indeed, some people on the East coast side say that when they view his articles about Florida in the last few years). What lent credence to his claims was an almost magical ability to release info a few weeks before it became reality.

Fast forward to today. There are lots of folks critical of TDO - Spirit and myself among them. But without that steady stream of inside information, it's impossible to gain traction. Push too hard and you look like a crank.

It also must be stated that the Internet was smaller, less fragmented in 1995 when Al rose to prominence than today. Blogging tools, twitter, and other devices have made the barriers to entry non-existent, so the signal to noise ratio has gotten less favorable.

Complicating factors even more is the Disney company response to social media. Say what you will about the motivations behind it on the company side (and some on the receiving end), but one thing is certain: it's doing what they wanted. No "Al Lutz" type out there can gain traction; they get drowned out by the happy bloggers being feted at the press events. The Disney Mom's panel is much of the same thing.

Al gained additional sources as the problems at Disneyland mounted. Here I disagree with Spirit slightly: I don't think Orlando-2012 is the same as Disneyland-1999. I was living in SoCal in 1999, visiting Disneyland every weekend, so I have a real basis for comparison. The problems in WDW-2012 are real and getting compounded in some ways every day - the problem is getting worse - but it's not yet at the Anaheim levels, when their problems were at their worst. However, it's getting closer all the time. These nets worry me more than anything else. They reek of the band-aid mentality that led to Guest deaths due to maintenance at Disneyland. To really address this problem, they need to stop REACTING when there is a problem, and dramatically pump up maintenance efforts and money to PREVENT the next problem.

 

[KevinYee]

If the Monarail incident a few years back is any indication I doubt that would change anything.

That wasn't a maintenance problem - it was human error. It looks unfortunate but not the sort of thing that makes people think "hey it could happen to me!"

 

[KevinYee]

Is FP+ really going to convince guests bound for the Marriotts and Hiltons to plunk down twice as much money to stay on-site instead? That's going to require quite a sales pitch that Disney will have to aggressively push on to customers (and not just wait for the customer to seek out on their own doing online research)

It will if FP+ is the ONLY reservations to be had at Disney parks.... standby for everyone else...

 

[flynnibus]

Do you think the Aulani debacle was the main reason for abandoning Washington DC? Seems like there was re-thinking of buying up land again to expand only to regress after the Aulani screw up.

As a local - I declared that project dead on arrival. Horrible location for what people would have expected.

It was also around then that Disney was to operate more future hotels at garden walk at dl. It sounds to me like a personal vision of some exec...

 

[ParentsOf4]

Disney has had more than a decade to get that message out to get ANY customers through their turnstiles. And yet, part of the reason the current FP system works is because only a fraction of park guests understand how to take advantage of it (otherwise all FPs would be sold out minutes after park opening). I'm not saying Disney hasn't communicated how FP works. But it appears they will have to work even harder to communicate that the old system no longer exists and that the new one is worth paying top dollar for. Clearly their low occupancy shows they haven't communicated the value of transportation, EMH, and all the other current perks of on-site hotels. In fact, they've had to discount and offer free dining just to maintain the low occupancy numbers they've got now.

Is FP+ really going to convince guests bound for the Marriotts and Hiltons to plunk down twice as much money to stay on-site instead? That's going to require quite a sales pitch that Disney will have to aggressively push on to customers (and not just wait for the customer to seek out on their own doing online research)

And will the financial benefit of selling more higher priced on-site rooms outweigh the potential loss of profit from disgruntled off-site guests if they're made to feel second class?

I understand part of the NextGen initiative is to create a cash-less payment system, making visitors less aware of how much money they're spending. That's smart business. So is the attempt to track crowd patterns to better budget staffing.

And what I think many fans forget is that much of that $1.5B is for modernizing technology throughout the property, including every cash register and hotel doorknob (the modern day equivalent of replacing all the 70's era metal door keys with 90's era magnetic swipe cards and all those old physical credit card imprint "rub" machines with electronic card readers). In that sense, Disney is embarking on a NextGen 2.0 right now.

But how in the world do they expect it to pay off for them?

Exactly. I'm sure TDO/TWDC has expectations of how Next Gen is supposed to play out. The big uncertainty is how it will play out.

EMH and DME did help drive up occupancy rates. But they are "old" benefits now. Old benefits don't encourage repeat business, just like old attractions. You need new benefits or new attractions to get people to come back.

FP as it exists today does nothing to encourage guests to stay onsite. A multi-tiered system should but there is a big potential downside to it. This is why mid-level managers might be panicking. They'll have to deal with the downside on a daily basis. The suits in Burbank won't.

What's been the downside to Universal's stay-or-pay FP system? From what I've seen, not much. The rumor is that WDW will be moving more towards a Universal-type FP system where onsite guests get more perks. Universal currently offers only one level of onsite hotel so they all get the same benefits. Universal's new hotel, which is a value resort, will offer fewer benefits than its 3 deluxe resorts. Universal is moving towards a multi-tiered benefits system. It's already been announced and there's been no storm of protest. WDW is following.

EMH is a nice onsite perk but it's a big Operational Expense. Next Gen is a big Capital Expense but should have a considerably lower reoccurring Opex. Long term, Next Gen should be cheaper to operate than EMH. We've already seen evening EMH cut back from 3 hours to 2 hours. Once Next Gen is fully realized, will EMH disappear completely? After all, why do you need EMH if you are offering your onsite guests some sort of multi-tiered FP system during regular park hours and offsite guests get nothing?

 

[Funmeister]

That wasn't a maintenance problem - it was human error. It looks unfortunate but not the sort of thing that makes people think "hey it could happen to me!"

Could you say that the lack of training or leadership in the Monorail Roundhouse could be viewed as a lack of maintenance? It was the maintenance Cast member who cleared the train back to station without moving the spur switch. If he had proper training and/or leadership it may have prevented the accident all together. It was human error but an error that could have been prevented with the right attention in my opinion. Don't forget the pancake breakfast at Perkins and other policies that were broken that night that could have also caught the mistake before it happend.

BTW...there were a few Cast Members (in leadership positions) that demoted themselves years prior to the accident, because they knew something bad was going to happen due to cutbacks and did not want to be held responsible.

 

[DocMcHulk]

Yes. DVCers aren't nearly as large a group on a daily basis as Disney spinners would have you believe.
Even more so is the crazy notion that WDW resort guests are a larger proportion of guests in the parks. Um, except during EMHs, that is not often the case. Do you know how many people visit Orlando daily? How many rooms/timeshares/vacation homes there are? Do you know how many guests are at WDW parks, water parks and DD on a daily basis?

All you have to do is look at the basic figures to extrapolate that far more guests are staying at the Hilton Orlando, the Sheraton LBV Resort, the Embassy Suites I-drive/CC, homes in Kissimmee or Davenport etc ... yet many fanbois have this crazy notion that everyone who visits WDW is paying $250 for a room at Coronado Springs.

I'll go as far as to put in a plug for Orange Lake Resort right by Western Way. GREAT location, not super expensive, and nice facilities. My parents have a time share there and we stay there every time now. It's so close you are practicably on property.

 

[Funmeister]

Just trying to understand NextGen as you do.

If most guests are already staying off property, and if on-property occupancy is currently low and overpriced, how does Disney truly think NextGen/FP+ is going to increase on-site occupancy (which is where I assume much of the "profit" of NextGen will be realized)?

I'm sure there are other ways Disney will profit from NextGen besides being another on-site hotel perk like EMH. But I don't understand how they will communicate that to the Walmart and international tour group crowds.

Next Gen has one purpose and one purpose only. At this point in the game, competition is so heated that Disneys strategy (as anyones atrategy should be) to lock guests in to visiting their property before they even leave. Disney wants you to plan everything out because once you have a plan on paper (which attractions to visit at what time) then psychologically you are locked in. No room for flexibility. No changes. The fact is you can change, but because you have an itenerary it is real.

NextGen is nothing but a fancy "high tech" way to get you to commit your spending dollars to Disney before you decide to buy a Universal or Sea World ticket IN Central Florida. Unfortunatly it took $1b+ to do it. They will never see the return on this investment. Once the dust settles and the rubble is removed the guests will end up with souped up versions of the original attractions. When I say "souped up" I am talking about digital screens where you can swipe virtual honey away to reveal a picture or telling digital crabs to sort what are human objects and what are not. Those are fancy neat little additions that will survive but NextGen will not work based on the strategy they tend to use it.

The current amount spent on NextGen could have built TWO Animal Kingdom parks...but then again..who wants two more parks filled with...plants.

 

[SirLink]

I'll go as far as to put in a plug for Orange Lake Resort right by Western Way. GREAT location, not super expensive, and nice facilities. My parents have a time share there and we stay there every time now. It's so close you are practicably on property.

Yep and last time I was there I could watch MK fireworks from my room although I was in River Island and on the 8th floor - and it was a damn side cheaper than Disney accommodation.

 

[DocMcHulk]

Yep and last time I was there I could watch MK fireworks from my room although I was in River Island and on the 8th floor - and it was a damn side cheaper than Disney accommodation.

My parents are in the older areas on the west side of 429. but yea, those areas to the east are LITERALLY butting up against Disney's property lines.

 

[SirLink]

Next Gen has one purpose and one purpose only. At this point in the game, competition is so heated that Disneys strategy (as anyones atrategy should be) to lock guests in to visiting their property before they even leave. Disney wants you to plan everything out because once you have a plan on paper (which attractions to visit at what time) then psychologically you are locked in. No room for flexibility. No changes. The fact is you can change, but because you have an itenerary it is real.

NextGen is nothing but a fancy "high tech" way to get you to commit your spending dollars to Disney before you decide to buy a Universal or Sea World ticket IN Central Florida. Unfortunatly it took $1b+ to do it. They will never see the return on this investment. Once the dust settles and the rubble is removed the guests will end up with souped up versions of the original attractions. When I say "souped up" I am talking about digital screens where you can swipe virtual honey away to reveal a picture or telling digital crabs to sort what are human objects and what are not. Those are fancy neat little additions that will survive but NextGen will not work based on the strategy they tend to use it.

The current amount spent on NextGen could have built TWO Animal Kingdom parks...but then again..who wants two more parks filled with...plants.

You also forget up-selling your experience on property by 'oh your son like Pirates. Well we have a $200pp adventure your Son and you can go on!' Or 'ride experiences' oh you want your portrait in the HM, Pooh to wish you Happy Birthday, design a doll for IASW, the fish to spell your party's name in Nemo and Friends - well that's an extra $100 per day per person.

Yet the 'Borgin & Burkes' experience in the WWOHP London sounds amazing. And I'm not being up-sold anything else to have that experience at Universal.

 

[DocMcHulk]

You also forget up-selling your experience on property by 'oh your son like Pirates. Well we have a $200pp adventure your Son and you can go on!' Or 'ride experiences' oh you want your portrait in the HM, Pooh to wish you Happy Birthday, design a doll for IASW, the fish to spell your party's name in Nemo and Friends - well that's an extra $100 per day per person.

Stop giving them ideas!!!!

 

[SirLink]

Stop giving them ideas!!!!

These aren't my ideas most of these have been on surveys, and ya know the thing about Disney, surveys and stats is well ya know...

 

[ParentsOf4]

I now have a theory of how WDW intends to use Next Gen to improve its bottom line. It’s a three-pronged approach:

• Improve hotel occupancy rates – If guests staying at a Deluxe Resort (for example) get 4 extra FP+ per day, Moderate Resorts get 2 extra FP+ per day, and Value Resorts get 1 extra FP+ per day, this will encourage offsite guests to stay onsite and will encourage onsite guests to upgrade their hotel. Who knows, maybe they will do something similar with ADRs. I can imagine Deluxe Resort guests being able to book their ADRs 6 months in advance, Moderate 5 months, Value 4 months, and everyone else 3 months. Maybe ADRs will be linked to FP+. As a result, WDW hotel occupancy rates should improve, with more people staying at the very expensive Deluxe Resorts. Operating expenses for a hotel with 90% occupancy are not much more than a hotel with 70% occupancy. Filling unoccupied rooms in an existing hotel has a tremendous profit margin.
• Eliminate Extra Magic Hours – EMHs are an enormous operating expense. Considerable money could be saved by getting rid of these. With a multi-tiered FP+ system for onsite guests during regular park hours, EMHs are no longer needed. Hugh savings for WDW. Universal will be offering a multi-tiered perk system once they open their fourth hotel and their attendance is better than ever. Perhaps TDO thinks they can do the same with minimal impact on overall attendance.
• Price increases – Of course. Just like they did when they switched to the Magic Your Way ticket system, WDW undoubtedly has plans to rename some things and then charge more for essentially the same service.

CEO Bob Iger has publicly stated that the general public needs to be weaned off “Free Dining” and “Room Only” discounts. A multi-tiered perks system built around Next Gen might be a way to do this. Onsite guests get more FP+, better ADRs, and preferred viewing. Deluxe Resort guests get more than Moderate or Value Resort guests. As a result, WDW no longer needs to offer as many discounts if guests have stronger incentives to stay onsite, especially since these incentives require minimal opex. Potentially, this could be another way for WDW to increase revenue with minimal cost.

Looking at it this way, I see how Next Gen should improve revenue and profits better than any new attraction. No wonder these have been WDW’s worst years for attraction development.

 

[flynnibus]

Could you say that the lack of training or leadership in the Monorail Roundhouse could be viewed as a lack of maintenance? It was the maintenance Cast member who cleared the train back to station without moving the spur switch. If he had proper training and/or leadership it may have prevented the accident all together

No - simply the guy $%'d up. There was a cascade of events that made that screw up become fatal - but the core issue was human error. Not 'design', 'not process', not understaffed - the guy simply made a call after he forgot to do it because he had more than one task. The guy in central shops just flat out screwed up.

It was human error but an error that could have been prevented with the right attention in my opinion. Don't forget the pancake breakfast at Perkins and other policies that were broken that night that could have also caught the mistake before it happend.

The guy offsite made no difference - it was an error by central shop, an error not caught by the pilot (which one might argue he should have), and the people in the station also failed to catch it in time to intervene. People on the platform would have had just as much 'intervention' capability as the coordinator.

It's a collection of mistakes that cost someone their life. But in the scheme of this discussion, it failed to make the general public to start to question Disney.

At DL, the accidents were far more systematic.. and helped spur the change that the state OSHA board started taking oversight of permanent amusements.

 

[StageFrenzy]

You know FP+ could add a whole new dimension to going to WDW. I think it will provide locals with a new game to play even better than SotMK, called Break FP+. Throw off days and cause countless meltdowns by making a ride go 101. Coordinate with friends and Brazilian tour groups to throw whole parks into chaos. Flash mob random attractions causing TDO carefully planned schedules moot.


Muahhahahahah

 

[John]

SO lets ask the question here.....So the difference to get a couple of extra FP's is to pay what amounts to about a thousand dollars per seven day trip....if you figure in the difference in cost between mod resort vs deluxe resort?
I would venture to say that in oreder to get this great new offering you will have to pay rack rate. Spend what amounts to a thousand bucks for something you used to get for free? seriously? Oh and dont forget no matter if NG comes online or not....there will be price increases!

So what about the rest of the day once you have used your FP?....spend the rest of the day in a manufactured wait in a queue? ANother problem I see with NG is that they will control the number of FP's, They see some attractions are not getting the traffic so they limit the number of more popular attractions from day to day...how are we to know. I dont think they do this now because they have less control when only a portion has FP queues....all of that will change in the future where EVERY attaction will have FP....weather it needs it or not...
They will say....sorry TSMM all out but hey.....you can get one for Peter Pan. spreading the crowd where they want when they want. Hearded sheep is what it is.

When does just planning a visit get to the point where it isnt worth it....forget the cost for a minute. But what is it going to be like when you have a large party where some guest can not ride or dosnt want to ride a piticular attraction. How in the world are you going to plan a visit around those circumstances a 180 days out? What will happen to the casual guest who for whatever reason dosnt recieve the message that thier entire vacation needs to be planned ( this still happens with ADRs)? They come to the parks and get shut out of resturants and now attractions? You think this guest will ever return? Has Disney really got the message out in total clarity about ADRs? ummmmm a big NO! So why should we assume they will get the message out on a much more complicated system?

There has been some members here that are supportive of NG.....someone please enlighten me again why this is going to be a good idea. Explain to me again how it will enhance my guest experience? Also tell me how it will be worth several hundred dollars?.....please someone!