Numbers, Cars and Quality ...

[WDW1974]

@ryguy, I have to agree with you about DVCers being the big losers here. We have a couple really good friends who bought in & I often feel terribly for them. I can't imagine the frustration. Call me a big flamin' b*tch, but my thoughts of pity for them are always closely followed by absolute relief that we DIDN'T commit to WDW/DVC. At this point I would be beyond livid. The neglect throughout the property is shameful from a taking-pride-in-keeping-your-house standpoint. But when you sell the dream and promises to millions of people you now have a responsibility to them that goes beyond just you. I remember the part of the pitch that was "faith in the quality because it's Disney". Yeah, someone should remind TDO of those standards....with a very big stick. LOL!

I got a smarmy call from DVC today that bordered on what I'd expect from Westgate or one of those type operators. Apparently, Disney has noted that I have ordered multiple DVC DVDs in the past and taken tours and they seem to feel that there must be something wrong with me for not taking part in Disney's Best-Kept Secret. The message is actually a keeper because he assured that this was his last call ... yes, they've called before ... and then wished me "MAGICal holidays' ... I almost felt dirty listening.

But DVC is doing just fine ... no desperation there. Nope ... just like those $399 PAPs.

 

[ParentsOf4]

One could argue that DVC plays a role with TDO decision making. Basically you have a large group of visitors who you know will be coming every year and you already have there money. I know since the inception of DVC the parks attendance has been more spread out and attendance up.

The myth is that DVC members go exclusively to WDW parks. The truth is DVC members tend to be value shoppers. DVC is, after all, primarily sold as a money-saving way to stay at Deluxe Resorts. You'd be surprised at the number of DVC members either bringing their own food or having food delivered to their room from local grocery stores. They do a lot of eating in the room, not eating at expensive WDW restaurants. It's the regular onsite guests, visiting WDW once every 5 years, who tend to splurge.

Similarly, DVC members visit other Orlando attractions just like everyone else. I think this has caught WDW off guard. I think they expected to have these people as deep pocketed guaranteed sources of revenue but WDW is finding that, more than the average WDW guest (who might visit only once every few years), DVC members are very much aware of what's going on in Orlando and are spending their money appropriately. Most recently, a lot of DVC members have been spending their money at Universal.

Meanwhile, WDW attendance and hotel occupancy are down, not up. Recently, what had been propping up attendance and occupancy were the "Free Dining" and "Room Only" discounts. But after many years, guests are growing tired of these. "Free Dining" doesn't sell very well when it still costs 30% more to go to WDW than it did 5 years ago. Just ask the average consumer how many of them have gotten a 30% pay increase for the last 5 years.

 

[WDW1974]

I agree it needs to be a cross-site initiative.

Imagine if a lot of the major fan sites all posted something on the same day!
Or if all of them had a section devoted to these issues.

It's a unity thing. I can see it. I just don't have the ability to do it. Who does?

Here's the fear, though--it somewhat does need to be moderated/controlled. Otherwise, it won't
be taken seriously. We can't mix in petitions to "bring back that Ron guy as Dreamfinder" or
kick Starbucks out, or "rebuild Horizons" with serious, real-world concerns. It has to be sober,
adult, and reasonable. (sorry to any of you for whom those are pet issues, but I think this needs
to be bigger picture. I'll put aside my unatural desire to see 'veggie, fruit, fruit' again, if you'll
put yours aside.)

This can be a thing. We need to figure out how to do it, though. I don't have the connections
to try something like this, but behind the scenes, through email and PM's, someone does.

Coordinate. One mature, reasoned voice. LARGE. Could do something. Could help. Hopefully.

What say ye? St. Crispian's Day! Once more into the breach! Was it over when the Germans
bombed Pearl Harbor? Forth Erolingas! We CAN handle the truth! FREEDOM! Carpe Diem!
It is not this day! Charge!

Nice thought, but won't work in reality.

There are ways ... guerilla warfare if you will ... using the Parks Blog comments ... tweeting things ... and certainly here on MAGIC.

But it isn't easy ... and the WDW fan community has consistently proven it can't get its act together and focus on the big things.

If they could, they'd already be causing bad press issues over FP+ ... before Disney can show the MAGICal bracelets off to all the whores descending on WDW next week.

 

[WDW1974]

Wasn't trying to be insulting in any way so I hope you didn't take it that way. I realize DVCers have the option of just staying at their resort but not visiting the 4 parks. Plus, DVCers can rent out their points or bank them. No doubt. There's ways to avoid letting the mouse into your pockets anymore than he has already. But, for me, I'd be looking at the premium I paid to buy Disney over buying at other beautiful resorts in the same area. If all I was doing was using my DVC points for a place to lay my head while I visit other Orlando area attractions I might be slapping my forehead knowing I coulda bought twice as much time at a RCI timeshare for the same money. Or, I'd be questioning the return on my investment because staying at far more luxurious accommodations in the area isn't as expensive as staying in a Disney deluxe resort by a significant margin. Ya know? I'm such a stickler for every nickel which is what kept me from giving the green light to the old man who would've gladly plunked down the $$ for the points years ago. I always put it off because I had an uneasy feeling about the commitment. Now, I'm absolutely delighted I trusted my intuition because I'd be another person trying to dump my points on the resale market and likely taking a loss.

So true ... but the reality is you can buy timeshares for $1 (TOTAL) ... Really. People are looking to dump them in O-Town by the truck load. Disney has been able to keep from getting that bad. But you can be sure they don't love people buying resales at OKW for $40 a point.

I don't see the unending supply of rubes looking to buy DVC (seems particularly popular with New Englanders and Old Englanders!) that TDO does.

 

[bferrara16]

Here I always thought the decline started with (and because of) the cake castle.

 

[WDW1974]

From @WDW1974 's old pal Lee MacDonald

So a colleague of mine had a cold call from the group chief executive and MD from Accenture who are the IT developers for the NGE program (they have basically done everything from the consulting piece when the program was being scoped out to the technology development). They wanted to pitch a specific tech piece to him.

Long story short - the Accenture reps told them that the NGE budget has now passed $1bn and is heading towards $1.5bn or higher. My colleagues' jaws were on the floor by that time.

That is more money than WDP&R has spent on any single theme park on opening. More than the DCA makeover (just) and more than either the Dream or Fantasy.

I'd love to get a hold of the business plan that underpins this spend. WDW Co. have put a lot of their eggs in that NGE basket.​

<<Success or failure? I can't even explain what NGE is in 25 words or less!>>

I can: Prioritizing resort guests to detriment of off-site and local guests by upselling to a "premium" experience that was previously free

That was 21.



For some reason I can't quote this right (likely because the quotes were lifted from LP.com). All I can say to Leemac (other than he should cope post over here where there are real posters and not tumbleweeds blowing through) is that he is quite accurate in his 'splanation of what NEXT GEN is. It isn't anything different than I've been saying for quite a while.

I will say he is a bit behind on the $1.5 billion number as that is old news ... and watch as it climbs closer to $2 billion or more than ANY WDW park has come close to costing.

I do wish people focused on the 'previously free' part of that quote as you naively think that FP+ will be the same as FP ... time to be reconditioned, guys.

Oh, and whatever you do, don't ask Leemac why Tales abruptly ceased publication two years ago.​

 

[WDW1974]

It boils down to what Spirit, Lee, Marni, and others have been saying for years. People will continue to open their eyes to outstanding offerings off Disney's property. The foolproof plan of DVC to lock people into Disney vacations is failing as Uni/SWF/BGT keep plussing their offerings with no fear of dollar and appealing to those who are somewhat locked into regular visits. $399 for a regular AP!!! That just wreaks of people going off prop.

Absolutely.

WDW doesn't discount out of the goodness of their hearts (don't they collect them like Cora does on 'The Gay Lost'?) ... this offer is aimed squarely at DVCers who may like their vacation accommodations but are not happy with the parks and not visiting them, which means Disney also is losing on food and beverage and merchandise revenue from them. Disney may want folks spending 10 nights in a two bedroom at OKW ... but not when they've already paid for it and are spending their time with The Boy Who Wouldn't Die, The Cat in the Hat and the Incredible Hulk.

 

[WDW1974]

What is scary about NextGen surpassing $1,500,000,000 is that not too long ago we were talking here about who is likely to replace Crofton when she leaves. The name that came up as likely was Jim McPhee who (in typically fashion) because an idol amongst fans for a small action (EPCOT Center's 25th). Since then he has been the one leading the NextGen initiative. If McPhee comes to head Walt Disney World he is going to be in the position of proving that NextGen works as it was his project. A project of this size will take its head if it sinks, so McPhee as head of Walt Disney World would do everything to stay afloat and show the initiative as a success

Jim MacPhee will not lead WDW. At least that's not what I'm hearing at all ... and once NEXT GEN starts and you see what a mess a billion and a half can create, you'll likely see him resigning from the company to spend more time with his family.

 

[TalkingHead]

Nice thought, but won't work in reality.

There are ways ... guerilla warfare if you will ... using the Parks Blog comments ... tweeting things ... and certainly here on MAGIC.

But it isn't easy ... and the WDW fan community has consistently proven it can't get its act together and focus on the big things.

If they could, they'd already be causing bad press issues over FP+ ... before Disney can show the MAGICal bracelets off to all the whores descending on WDW next week.

Two things.

1. If a "coordinated" fan-based response was going to happen for WDW, I think it would've happened before now. The last decade+ has been a series of disappointments for the resort. Decling by degrees as Kevin Yee used to say. Not sure if he still talks about the resort in that way. But the point is, it doesn't happen overnight. What we're seeing in poor maintenance, lame additions, no new headlining attractions...it's been this way for years.

2. The WDW fan community is still divided. There may be more willingness to criticize WDW for what its become, but you still have a lot of people who are in lockstep with Mickey. The Yeti, the centerpiece of the last E-ticket, hasn't worked in how many years? It was operational for approximately a year after the ride opened?

Speaking of guerilla tactics, someone should wear a costume and go stand on 192 with signs about Disney's deteriorating quality. Make it a publicity stunt. Obviously, Disney would have you arrested if you did it on property. I volunteer to take the 8-9 shift.

 

[WDW1974]

Worse than that...that's the special for a Premium AP. Yup, that bad.

Imagine how some of us Charter APers feel as our regular APs are now priced the same as some brand new first-timer who just bought into Kidani Village's PAP.

It's bad in so many ways.

 

[EOD K9]

that's married to the woman of my dreams ...

Are you referring to @The Mom or @Britt??

 

[WDW1974]

To the contrary, it may be something where they think they're already in too deep to turn back now.

Oh, they are. Very deep.

But this won't make it to DLR. They want it to. But it won't. It and One Disney will die.

And WDW will be left with a mess ... a trainwreck of a new caste/guest planning system that will be loved by the top 1% (OK, maybe top 5%) of guests and hated by everyone else.

You decided you wouldn't pay for a WDW resort? You're now gonna get treated like an 8th-class citizen. Just wait. I am sure Disney has some great consultants pushing this plan along ... this isn't simply Franklin and MacPhee. Some of Disney's top consultants pushed this through and got nice checks and will be long gone when it is fully realized (if that is even possible).

 

[EOD K9]

By the way, I am a DVC Member, and I am guilty of getting food from offsite as much as I can. I am not a fan of the clientele at Universal though. Therefore, I do head out west to DL and other places. However, I still enjoy heading the WDW at least once a year though.

 

[WDW1974]

I don't see a unified fan voice affecting change unless it becomes widespead. For that it needs to be organized and targetted. I would think maintenance issues are something that would be a good place to start and there are many people on here that have expressed interest in putting something together surrounding maintenance issues.

The WDW fan community is incapable of it.

And just wait until the bloggers/podcasters/assorted whores start spouting off about how MAGICal everything is at WDW's press junket (that will begin as soon as this weekend for some internationals) this week.

I can already see the crazy over the top praise, even on a 'relatively' sane site like this one because all the folks getting a free trip on the Mouse will be gushing. ... Just imagine if they announce the new Studios stage shows or the new MK parade or show two pieces of vague Pandoran artwork ... the droolfest will be huge. And too many people will take their eyes off of what is truly important.

 

[John]

Oh, they are. Very deep.

But this won't make it to DLR. They want it to. But it won't. It and One Disney will die.

And WDW will be left with a mess ... a trainwreck of a new caste/guest planning system that will be loved by the top 1% (OK, maybe top 5%) of guests and hated by everyone else.

You decided you wouldn't pay for a WDW resort? You're now gonna get treated like an 8th-class citizen. Just wait. I am sure Disney has some great consultants pushing this plan along ... this isn't simply Franklin and MacPhee. Some of Disney's top consultants pushed this through and got nice checks and will be long gone when it is fully realized (if that is even possible).

OK....if this goes as badly as we think it will who will be ultimately held responsible? Will they all be gone? The abandon ship call has already been made....is Captian Iger going to stay and go down with the ship?

 

[the.dreamfinder]

As the ridiculously high price of NextGen has been brought up today I was thinking about something Bob Weis had written on his blog, and quickly took down, after the death of Steve Jobs. He wrote that at one of the meetings he had with the board of directors where he went over the plans for the DCA redo, Steve asked "Shouldn't we be doing more?" This certainly makes me wonder if the Weatherman had told Steve the underlying strategy of NGE at all. While steve certainly had more important matters to attend in his last year, did the BoD really believe that NGE was going to fix Florida's problems? (I am asking that question under the assumption that NGE has been in development since 2007/2008, I would be interesting in learning when NGE started)

 

[Captain Chaos]

As the ridiculously high price of NextGen has been brought up today I was thinking about something Bob Weis had written on his blog, and quickly took down, after the death of Steve Jobs. He wrote that at one of the meetings he had with the board of directors where he went over the plans for the DCA redo, Steve asked "Shouldn't we be doing more?" This certainly makes me wonder if the Weatherman had told Steve the underlying strategy of NGE at all. While steve certainly had more important matters to attend in his last year, did the BoD really believe that NGE was going to fix Florida's problems? (I am asking that question under the assumption that NGE has been in development since 2007/2008, I would be interesting in learning when NGE started)

That's if the BoD actually thinks or knows there are problems in Florida.. When they look at the bottom line and see profit, do you think they ask if a broken light bulb is fixed or if attractions are show ready? Probably not... They probably say, WELL HOW CAN YOU INCREASE EVEN MORE????? Then we get cuts, cuts, cuts and no innovation... Repeat, repeat, repeat...

 

[Funmeister]

Blogs and websites will not work in exposing what is happening to the company. The change will have to come from stockholders and the board of directors. I am a big believer that is is going to happen. I just do not know when. As pressure mounts from the competition (including Disneyland) in the quality of product they are offering, bookings will go down. DVC members will just use Disney property as their "home base" while they begin to venture off-property.

The scaling back of guest dollars spent has already begun...years ago. Soft sales are the reason why Disney's Walk Around the World and Disney's Leave A Legacy (in addition to guest credit card numbers being compimised) were abruptly ended. Supplemental revenue was generated from the pin boom and now vinylmation. These were not strategic revenue generators...they were/are fads that happend to exceed expectations financially allowing them to cut back in other areas that were not generating as much cash. Disney Quest Chicago, Philadelphia nad Miami were not closed or cancelled becasue it was a bad concept...they were shut down because they did not make "Disney" money. DQ Orlando has been on life-support for years. The reason why it is not shunned (yet) is because it is used to build "value" as an add-on to certain multi-day tickets and group tickets like ESPNWWofS. It currently has more value as an add on without the company actually having to spend additional money on something real. Borrowing a marketing term you could consider DQ soft inventory for Disney to use to build (percieved) value. Sorry I am all over the place...

 

[KevinYee]

The main reason you haven't yet seen a massive uprising about FP+ (I refuse to use their new name for it, since they haven't made it public yet) is that we don't KNOW for sure what it will be like in operation.

I agree, there is a great chance it will end in tears, and very bad things operationally. But there's also a chance that it has little impact (well, that the impact is a wash). Or even, a tiny chance it will make things better.

It boils down to total reservations. If they use the FP+ concept as an excuse to reduce the total reservations for a day, it will be a good thing. So if Space Mtn gives out 25,000 FastPasses in today's operation, next year what if it only gives out 15,000 - all of them through FP+ and none through traditional FP? That will mean longer standby lines, you say. Maybe. But if the tourists are allowed to only get four FP+ reservations per day, won't that mean fewer overall reservations in a day versus the current system? If so, the standby lines might have more people in them, but they will move faster.

If this blow this golden opportunity, though, then yeah. You can bet there will be an outcry. I have the article all but written in my head if they do it wrong.

 

[WDW1974]

Continuing on the subject of inaccurate rumors. Leemac from LP.com refutes Lutz's claim about Carsland being planned for TDL:

"guests love Westernland - and that includes the railroad, Twain, canoes, TSI etc. They are part of the fabric of the park. Collectively they have a higher occupancy rate than RSR by a huge margin. The park can't afford to lose capacity. I'm also not sure thematically how you could blend in BTMRR and Critter Country.

Lutz was definitely reaching with that rumor - there are absolutely no plans by OLC to bring Cars Land to TDL. That doesn't mean it won't happen at some point in the future but it is not on the development path - it is pure guesswork by him and his TDA sources.

Worth also adding that under the licencing agreement OLC would be required to stump up a share of the R&D costs on Cars Land if they pulled the trigger next year. That is precisely why OLC have waited to bring Midway Mania, Star Tours II etc. to the park. They don't like to have to pay more than their own construction costs when they pick up a clone."

Who is right?

They both are. But leemac is a great politician. If you read what he wrote, then all you have to know is that Cars Land isn't a done deal for TDL ... yet. Even he says it might happen down the road. Well, considering the scope of such a project and planning and what would have be removed, he can't be wrong. But ... it also doesn't make Al wrong either.

OLC was there to specifically see the new stuff and Cars Land wowed them according to people on the ground.

Lee has had great sources in the past, but not so much of late. I wonder if he even has any work relationship with the company at all anymore based on conversations I have had. Hell, I wonder if his reappearance on that site is to draw traffic to the moribund boards (way to go Doob ... must be so proud of destroying your own community!)

I also am interested in the rumor by '74 about a 3rd non-Disney park at TDR. I would love to see a non-Disney IP park executed at the level - and with the budget of - a DisneySea, but from the little I know, TWDC maintains controls over the content of the TDR parks. For example, I didn't think OLC could go out on its own and build, say, a Smurf ride by an outside design firm in TDL even if they had the strong desire, and as such OLC couldn't build a non-Disney/WDI 3rd Gate under the Tokyo DISNEY Resort banner. Is this thinking wrong? Any clarification on the Disney-OLC arrangement?

I am not sure of the contractual details beynd the fact the OLC could build multiple parks without Disney IP if they wanted. Disney, indeed, has control over the IP in TDL and TDS. As to under the banner having a non-Disney third gate, I don't know. But I also have no idea where they'd build any third gate. And they may well be looking at a different site where they wouldn't have the Disney name at all. But Ikspiari (the TDR version of DD) was built by them and is not controlled by Disney beyond having a Disney Store (like the chain) there and a DVC sales center in the old Planet Hollywood facility.

I know Disney has come up with at least one idea for a third gate at TDR that was nixed.