So if I understand ... If I can't get a FP+ for TSM during my trip then I will likely wait longer in a standby line? If I am fortunate and can insure a FP+ in advance of my visit it is likely that the FP+ will be longer than the old standard FP line was? This is a great new system Disney has designed - I am really not looking forward to it at all. I wish them luck.
Eventually, Standby waits for attractions that previously had FP
should return to normal.
When a person stands in front of an attraction (or uses the My Disney Experience app), they decide if they are willing to wait the amount of time listed for that attraction. Think of this as the cost of the attraction. Will I wait 10 minutes for TSM? Will I wait 100 minutes for TSM? As the price goes up, there will be fewer willing to pay the price. This behavior tends to self-regulate.
I suspect the problem right now is that Disney is overdistributing FP+. They are handing out too many. This doesn't mean they are handing out more FP+ than they did FP; it means a higher percentage of guests are cashing in their FP+.
Because guests get their FP only after they arrive in front of TSM, some guests have to decide between either walking away because the price is too high or getting a FP for much later in the day. Those that simply give up are in the park and probably will instead try another experience with a much shorter wait, or do something with no wait. Some of those that get a FP for much later in the day will simply never use it. Both groups represent people in the park who won't ride TSM that day, even though both groups arrived intending to ride TSM.
With FP+, guests have guaranteed times before they ever enter the parks. They've planned around that time, the same way they planned around showing up early to try to ride TSM with FP. The difference is that they now have a FP+ before they arrive. It's like having a doctor's appointment; guests are more likely to keep that appointment. That's Disney's basic business model for FP+; get guests to preplan their entire vacations so they don't visit other Orlando tourist destinations. These FP+ folks are more likely to actually ride TSM.
Using some ballpark numbers, let's assume TSM handles 1200 guests/hour. Let's also assume Disney previously handed out 1000 FP/hour for TSM. For FP+, Disney should have to reduce the number of FP+ being distributed, say from 1000/hour to 900/hour. Once they do this, line for attractions that previously had FP should mostly return to normal. (Mostly because FP+ now are being distributed from opening, say 9:00 AM, whereas in the past FP was distributed only for times beginning at 9:45 AM. So guests will begin to enter the FP+ earlier, meaning the Standby line will grow faster earlier.)
In the case of attractions that previously did not have FP (e.g. POTC), yes, Standby lines will be longer. FP+ doesn't increase or decrease ride capacity; it only changes how that capacity is distributed. Thus, using POTC as an example, whereas before everyone might wait 15 minutes, now with FP+, some will wait 5 minutes while others will wait 25 minutes.
Eventually, once everything settles out,
total wait times shouldn't change much. However, on an individual basis, wait times could change drastically. Someone who was a "FastPass Super User" probably will end up waiting longer than they did in the past while someone who was a WDW rookie probably will end up waiting less than rookies did with FP.
Still, we cannot be sure how FP+ will settle out. If it ends up encouraging more to stand in line, the net effect could be that the total wait time will grow even if attendance does not. In other words, FP+ could end up encouraging more people to wait in certain lines rather than distributing them more evenly throughout WDW.
Let's hope corporate Disney tweaks the FP+ distribution numbers to restore some balance. One fear is they won't because the more FP+ they distribute for "good" attractions, the more guests they have that are likely to show up. It's in WDW's best financial interest to overdistribute FP+ for TSM, even if guests wait longer. Waiting 30 minutes for TSM is still better than waiting 120 minutes. Disney would rather have you in DHS waiting 30 minutes to ride TSM than have you not visit a WDW park at all.