5PM Update seems to be moving towards what the European model is thinking that this is going to hug the coast from Forth Lauderdale all the way up.
The thought is, IF Dorian continues to slow there is an approaching front from the west which will have a profound impact on it, likely forcing it north and east earlier and knocking it up and out and giving central Florida a glancing blow rather than a direct hit.
The European model seems to have heavily bought into this, radically changing from 36 hours ago where it was creating a monster in the gulf.
This is still subject to change of course and that models will be all over the place until about 48 hours prior to the event occurring.