News Major Hurricane Dorian impacts to Walt Disney World 2019

[beertiki]

No.
That's simply not true.
The Weather Channel uses the best weather predictive technology available on the Planet. You may not like the anchors, but you're not gonna get anything better outside of the NWS.
Although I'm sure there's plenty of Millennials who'll try to convince you some blogger operating out of his basement is better.

I would trust the opinions of two "Bloggers" with my life. Jeff Masters and Levi Cowan. The Weather Channel is a joke.

 

[LAKid53]

People are asking for advice on how to adjust their travel plans and I give information based on reliable models, NHC forecasts, and NOAA. I was at Disney for Matthew and Irma, and have been through countless storms. For 30 years I have been tracking Hurricanes and the waves they generate. But, you have a feeling... People have very important decisions to make, and they should base them on reliable information and advice from those with experience. In a situation like this, your gut feelings offer no help to those asking for advice.

2 years ago I drove past 2 miles of refrigerators lined up on Rt 1, every fridge represents a house destroyed. There are still blue tarps on roofs.

But hey, you got a feeling

One only has to look at the pictures of the devastation in the Florida Panhandle to appreciate the power of these storms. That area is still recovering and will be for months to come.

 

[beertiki]

When I got back to the Keys after Irma, I had my camera on the seat so that I could take photos. Did not take a single one. The devastation was so bad that I did not want to be able to remember it so clearly. 100 miles at 30 miles an hour trying not to cry.

 

[worldfanatic]

I would trust the opinions of two "Bloggers" with my life. Jeff Masters and Levi Cowan. The Weather Channel is a joke.

How many millions of dollars worth of equipment do those guys have?
But I'm sure they like weather.
And I'm sure they like people like you who think they know more than the professionals.

BTW, I've got a big red bridge in San Francisco I'll sell you....cheap!

 

[LAKid53]

No.
That's simply not true.
The Weather Channel uses the best weather predictive technology available on the Planet. You may not like the anchors, but you're not gonna get anything better outside of the NWS.
Although I'm sure there's plenty of Millennials who'll try to convince you some blogger operating out of his basement is better.

My university, which now houses an office of the NWS and whose meteorology graduates both staff AND directed the NHC for years, has better predictive models than the Weather Channel. And is doing cutting edge research into storm forecasting and climate science. I'll trust the likes of Drs. Krishnamurti and O'Brien and the researchers at COAPS before I'd trust some of the announcers.

 

[Notes from Neverland]

Been on hold with DCL for about 2 hours and counting ...
Also on hold with WDW for about 30 minutes and counting ...
Goodness.

 

[LAKid53]

When I got back to the Keys after Irma, I had my camera on the seat so that I could take photos. Did not take a single one. The devastation was so bad that I did not want to be able to remember it so clearly. 100 miles at 30 miles an hour trying not to cry.

I remember the videos one of our geologists shot when he visited South Miami after Andrew to check on his elderly parents. I went to high school in Miami. I knew that area very well. I didn't recognize Dixie Highway, it was that bad. Looked like a bomb dropped on it.

 

[beertiki]

How many millions of dollars worth of equipment do those guys have?
But I'm sure they like weather.
And I'm sure they like people like you who think they know more than the professionals.

BTW, I've got a big red bridge in San Francisco I'll sell you....cheap!

Jeff Masters used to fly a Hurricane Hunter plane, and is one of the co-founder of Weather Underground. As far as Levi, I would bet that right now there are 100's if not 1000's of government officials waiting on his next update and basing decisions that affect millions on his expert opinions.

You don't need millions of dollars of equipment, all you need is access to the data from billions of dollars of equipment, and know how to process it.

 

[LAKid53]

How many millions of dollars worth of equipment do those guys have?
But I'm sure they like weather.
And I'm sure they like people like you who think they know more than the professionals.

BTW, I've got a big red bridge in San Francisco I'll sell you....cheap!

That bridge is actually orange....

 

[worldfanatic]

Jeff Masters used to fly a Hurricane Hunter plane, and is one of the co-founder of Weather Underground. As far as Levi, I would bet that right now there are 100's if not 1000's of government officials waiting on his next update and basing decisions that affect millions on his expert opinions.

You don't need millions of dollars of equipment, all you need is access to the data from billions of dollars of equipment, and know how to process it.

In all honesty, I do believe there are bloggers who know their weather. Sounds like those guys are 2 of them.
My problem with your post is you said the "weather channel is a joke". Which is a ridiculous statement. Tens of millions of people get their weather from TWC every day. In this competitive society, a "joke" wouldn't be able to pull that off.

 

[worldfanatic]

That bridge is actually orange....

Haha. Burnt orange.
I know.
I grew up 5 miles north of it.

 

[Beacon Joe]

With the impending Matthew II: Electric Boogaloo coming, I just checked DVC availabilities... Checking in Saturday, checking out Tuesday are totally open for Saratoga, Bay Lake Tower, Boardwalk, Key West, and Copper Creek. Who' wants to burn leftover points and get a rare chance to experience Magic Kingdom and EPCOT with zero lines? And get in a surfari to New Smyrna? This guy. Who's with me?

 

[Lensman]

5PM Update seems to be moving towards what the European model is thinking that this is going to hug the coast from Forth Lauderdale all the way up.

The thought is, IF Dorian continues to slow there is an approaching front from the west which will have a profound impact on it, likely forcing it north and east earlier and knocking it up and out and giving central Florida a glancing blow rather than a direct hit.

The European model seems to have heavily bought into this, radically changing from 36 hours ago where it was creating a monster in the gulf.

This is still subject to change of course and that models will be all over the place until about 48 hours prior to the event occurring.

To reinforce @monothingie's discussion, this animation of the different ensemble members in the European model forecast shows how the forward speed of Dorian, when combined with the anticipated weakening of the ridge that is currently keeping it on a westward track, creates a lot of track uncertainty. Bottom line, as @monothingie said, is to continue to watch for updates since forward speed is less predictable and, in this case, can result in big differences in track.

 

[ToTBellHop]

With the impending Matthew II: Electric Boogaloo coming, I just checked DVC availabilities... Checking in Saturday, checking out Tuesday are totally open for Saratoga, Bay Lake Tower, Boardwalk, Key West, and Copper Creek. Who' wants to burn leftover points and get a rare chance to experience Magic Kingdom and EPCOT with zero lines? And get in a surfari to New Smyrna? This guy. Who's with me?

 

[Horizons '83]

Are they only doing updates every 6 hours now as opposed to every 3?

 

[LAKid53]

In all honesty, I do believe there are bloggers who know their weather. Sounds like those guys are 2 of them.
My problem with your post is you said the "weather channel is a joke". Which is a ridiculous statement. Tens of millions of people get their weather from TWC every day. In this competitive society, a "joke" wouldn't be able to pull that off.

The Weather Channel is known to be a bit dramatic when it comes to reporting on hurricanes.

 

[LAKid53]

Haha. Burnt orange.
I know.
I grew up 5 miles north of it.

My parents and brother lived in the Bay area until their deaths.

 

[LAKid53]

Are they only doing updates every 6 hours now as opposed to every 3?

NWS said they wouldn't provide updates until the storm approached land again. There was a 5 PM update.

 

[worldfanatic]

My parents and brother lived in the Bay area until their deaths.

I knew deep down I liked you.
Although I bailed to So Cal years ago.
Love warmer weather.
One of the reasons I love visiting WDW in the summer.

 

[LAKid53]

With the impending Matthew II: Electric Boogaloo coming, I just checked DVC availabilities... Checking in Saturday, checking out Tuesday are totally open for Saratoga, Bay Lake Tower, Boardwalk, Key West, and Copper Creek. Who' wants to burn leftover points and get a rare chance to experience Magic Kingdom and EPCOT with zero lines? And get in a surfari to New Smyrna? This guy. Who's with me?

Thanks. I'll stay up here in North Florida...until Dorian does a Michael. Then I'm getting the heck out of town.