Is attendance really down at WDW this or…

[Jrb1979]

Who?

A few here and other sites that keep saying everything is fine. According to the 10-k filling Hotel occupancy was at 82%, that's where it normally is.

 

[Disstevefan1]

Whistleblower cast member Sandra Kuba advised overstating by $6B a few years ago while at the same time being fired.

She got fired for exposing the truth.
As I remember it, She noticed that when Disney sold a gift card, they they counted that as a purchase, then when the customer used that gift card, the counted the same money again as a purchase.

 

[Disstevefan1]

Who?

The folks navigating the MOBBED parks.

 

[JD80]

A few here and other sites that keep saying everything is fine. According to the 10-k filling Hotel occupancy was at 82%, that's where it normally is.

So you are saying things are not fine? Are things bad? Are things just not as good as they were 4 years ago?

I think things are only fine. Fine being that the company is still making a ton of money at the parks. Is it trending in the wrong direction? Possibly. Are they going to get caught in a few years with EU? Yes.

Just last year (FY22) they made more money than ever. Is it sustainable? Probably not. But things are basically fine if you define fine as still making money hand over fist.

When are things bad or "not good"? Is that when they are losing money? Flat? -20% attendance? Not to single you out but there are people making the same argument against an invisible "many people" or just "a few here" (is it many or is it a few?) and you make it out to seem like there are hordes of people saying Disney is in the best place ever. When clearly it's not and no one is making that argument.

I think you should make clearer arguments with people that exist here in this community than just handwaving opposition into existence to make an argument against.

 

[Jrb1979]

So you are saying things are not fine? Are things bad? Are things just not as good as they were 4 years ago?

I think things are only fine. Fine being that the company is still making a ton of money at the parks. Is it trending in the wrong direction? Possibly. Are they going to get caught in a few years with EU? Yes.

Just last year (FY22) they made more money than ever. Is it sustainable? Probably not. But things are basically fine if you define fine as still making money hand over fist.

When are things bad or "not good"? Is that when they are losing money? Flat? -20% attendance? Not to single you out but there are people making the same argument against an invisible "many people" or just "a few here" (is it many or is it a few?) and you make it out to seem like there are hordes of people saying Disney is in the best place ever. When clearly it's not and no one is making that argument.

I think you should make clearer arguments with people that exist here in this community than just handwaving opposition into existence to make an argument against.

My problem is that whenever some with information talking about attendance being down or they are having issues filling rooms. That when the reports come out and saying something different, it gets shoved back in their faces.

There is only a few on this board that day nothing's wrong. On Facebook or other sites there amount of pixie dusters is over the top.

On to everything is fine. Profit wise they will be fine and they aren't going bankrupt. IMO they are heading in the wrong direction. Little investments coming, raising prices, the treatment of AP holders. It's going to come back and bite them.

 

[JD80]

My problem is that whenever some with information talking about attendance being down or they are having issues filling rooms. That when the reports come out and saying something different, it gets shoved back in their faces.

There is only a few on this board that day nothing's wrong. On Facebook or other sites there amount of pixie dusters is over the top.

On to everything is fine. Profit wise they will be fine and they aren't going bankrupt. IMO they are heading in the wrong direction. Little investments coming, raising prices, the treatment of AP holders. It's going to come back and bite them.

I don't care about Facebook or wherever else you discuss Disney because it's not WDWMagic. You can find any argument you want somewhere on the internet but that's not relevant to the conversation on this site. So until you can discuss something with an individual in this thread, you can stop with the "There are so many who think everything is ok". Stop arguing with ghosts.

To your "everything is fine" statement. I agree with that. See moderated or contextualize arguments are much better than blanket statements. Happy Thanksgiving!

edit: I believe you're Canadian? So maybe not Happy Thanksgiving, but the sentiment remains.

 

[Nevermore525]

So you are saying things are not fine? Are things bad? Are things just not as good as they were 4 years ago?

I think things are only fine. Fine being that the company is still making a ton of money at the parks. Is it trending in the wrong direction? Possibly. Are they going to get caught in a few years with EU? Yes.

Just last year (FY22) they made more money than ever. Is it sustainable? Probably not. But things are basically fine if you define fine as still making money hand over fist.

When are things bad or "not good"? Is that when they are losing money? Flat? -20% attendance? Not to single you out but there are people making the same argument against an invisible "many people" or just "a few here" (is it many or is it a few?) and you make it out to seem like there are hordes of people saying Disney is in the best place ever. When clearly it's not and no one is making that argument.

I think you should make clearer arguments with people that exist here in this community than just handwaving opposition into existence to make an argument against.

Don’t see Disney Parks really returning to 2018/19 attendance figures for a while so any comparisons by anybody in this thread to 2019 is an interesting talking point but also moot because this is a different Disney than 2019.

As far as “fine”, from the business side of the parks everything in all sectors was up or flat from the prior fiscal year, attendance, occupancy, in park spending, resort spending domestically the only part that was flat.

Obviously this thread is a micro focus on WDW, but at the macro level for the company the ebbs and flows haven’t amounted to anything major yet in a post Covid operations of the Disney parks.

Doesn’t mean it’s not possible in the future, it just hasn’t fully been seen in the actual reported data just yet.

 

[fgmnt]

On the attendance figures, does an after hours/party turnstile contribute to a count of unique attendance figures on top of day visits? ie could someone be double counted on a day if they went to MK at 9 am and then stayed for a party?

 

[aprilibeth]

On the attendance figures, does an after hours/party turnstile contribute to a count of unique attendance figures on top of day visits? ie could someone be double counted on a day if they went to MK at 9 am and then stayed for a party?

I honestly don't know but it is two separate admissions so it is a good point that they could be double counted. This is the kind of "cooking the books" I would consider to be happening. Not illegal but a bit untruthful to count the same person coming to the same park for two different ticketed admissions.

 

[ParentsOf4]

A few here and other sites that keep saying everything is fine. According to the 10-k filling Hotel occupancy was at 82%, that's where it normally is.

Historically, a strong Disney domestic hotel occupancy in the 87-90% range. It's tough for Disney to achieve an occupancy above 90% due to the way people book vacations. For example, there's less demand for Sunday-to-Wednesday nights, some checkout on Saturday, some on Sunday, etc.

Except for the pandemic, hotel occupancy has never been lower than 76%. This is what it was immediately after 9/11 when WDW shut down buildings and even entire hotels.

A hotel occupancy of 82% is not great, but it’s also not a disaster. 82% is a weak number. For example, for the 5 years prior to the pandemic, hotel occupancy averaged 88%.

 

[networkpro]

I honestly don't know but it is two separate admissions so it is a good point that they could be double counted. This is the kind of "cooking the books" I would consider to be happening. Not illegal but a bit untruthful to count the same person coming to the same park for two different ticketed admissions.

Or even park hopping. We'll see in a few weeks when my wife and I do our December trip.

 

[HauntedPirate]

Historically, a strong Disney domestic hotel occupancy in the 87-90% range. It's tough for Disney to achieve an occupancy above 90% due to the way people book vacations. For example, there's less demand for Sunday-to-Wednesday nights, some checkout on Saturday, some on Sunday, etc.

Except for the pandemic, hotel occupancy has never been lower than 76%. This is what it was immediately after 9/11 when WDW shut down buildings and even entire hotels.

A hotel occupancy of 82% is not great, but it’s also not a disaster. 82% is a weak number. For example, for the 5 years prior to the pandemic, hotel occupancy averaged 88%.

I know someone said they found that the number of room nights available was higher for FY23 than FY22, but if they've taken a sizable number of rooms out of the pool this fall/winter, wouldn't that removal just prop up the percentage? I guess the number of room nights available would also have to be reported and that would be the damning evidence for it all.

82% isn't great. And if it's 82% of 30,000 rooms vs. 82% of 36,000 rooms, that's even worse.

 

[HauntedPirate]

Or even park hopping. We'll see in a few weeks when my wife and I do our December trip.

I don't think park hopping is included. My memory on this is dusty but I'm pretty sure they know how many unique visitors pass through the turnstiles each day. Where it does get fuzzy is with party attendance - It's a separate ticket, so the same person could count twice.

 

[Nevermore525]

I know someone said they found that the number of room nights available was higher for FY23 than FY22, but if they've taken a sizable number of rooms out of the pool this fall/winter, wouldn't that removal just prop up the percentage? I guess the number of room nights available would also have to be reported and that would be the damning evidence for it all.

82% isn't great. And if it's 82% of 30,000 rooms vs. 82% of 36,000 rooms, that's even worse.

If they remove rooms they are still counted as available room nights. 2023 was 85% by the way, 2022 was 82%.

More people paid for cash rooms at on-site resorts in 2023 than 2022.

Just to note this is how Disney defines available room nights from the 10-K: “Available hotel room nights are defined as the total number of room nights that are available at our hotels and at DVC properties located at our theme parks and resorts that are not utilized by DVC members. Available hotel room nights include rooms temporarily taken out of service.”

 

[ParentsOf4]

I know someone said they found that the number of room nights available was higher for FY23 than FY22, but if they've taken a sizable number of rooms out of the pool this fall/winter, wouldn't that removal just prop up the percentage? I guess the number of room nights available would also have to be reported and that would be the damning evidence for it all.

82% isn't great. And if it's 82% of 30,000 rooms vs. 82% of 36,000 rooms, that's even worse.

Disney takes blocks of rooms out-of-service when hotel occupancy dips, but these rooms typically are still counted as Available Room Nights.

For example, in 2019 when domestic hotel occupancy was 90%, Available Room Nights was 10,030.

In 2022 when domestic hotel occupancy was 82%, Available Room Nights was 10,073.

There's no funny business going on here. WDW's hotel occupancy and theme park attendance numbers are OK but not what they were in 2015-2019, which now might be perceived by some as the normal baseline.

I suspect that many Disney executives had high hopes with the theme park changes and 50th anniversary celebration. COVID, inflation, and reduced International Guest visitations have messed with corporate Disney's plans - I'm not sure where WDW is going to land.

It will be interesting to see if Universal's third theme park brings in more visitors to WDW or simply cannibalizes WDW.

From what has been announced, there's nothing for WDW fans to get excited about for the next five years, so WDW might sink or swim based on how the public reacts to Epic Universe.

 

[Touchdown]

that are not utilized by DVC members

Ah, that might be it there folks, 2022 was the last year people could have used banked points right? Wouldn’t that have decreased the % artificially in 2022?

 

[Nevermore525]

Ah, that might be it there folks, 2022 was the last year people could have used banked points right? Wouldn’t that have decreased the % artificially in 2022?

The percentage is only a reflection of cash bookings based upon available cash room nights. So 2022 there were 23,000 more DVC rooms booked than 2023, but in 2023 there were around 300,000 more cash room nights booked.

 

[Nevermore525]

I don't think park hopping is included. My memory on this is dusty but I'm pretty sure they know how many unique visitors pass through the turnstiles each day. Where it does get fuzzy is with party attendance - It's a separate ticket, so the same person could count twice.

Yeah this is where Disney and AECOM seem to differ. Disney notes only unique entries, where AECOM makes educated estimates and there’s nothing that I’ve seen that says whether they don’t take any hopping into account in their estimating.

 

[HauntedPirate]

If they remove rooms they are still counted as available room nights. 2023 was 85% by the way, 2022 was 82%.

More people paid for cash rooms at on-site resorts in 2023 than 2022.

Just to note this is how Disney defines available room nights from the 10-K: “Available hotel room nights are defined as the total number of room nights that are available at our hotels and at DVC properties located at our theme parks and resorts that are not utilized by DVC members. Available hotel room nights include rooms temporarily taken out of service.”

Disney takes blocks of rooms out-of-service when hotel occupancy dips, but these rooms typically are still counted as Available Room Nights.

For example, in 2019 when domestic hotel occupancy was 90%, Available Room Nights was 10,030.

In 2022 when domestic hotel occupancy was 82%, Available Room Nights was 10,073.

There's no funny business going on here. WDW's hotel occupancy and theme park attendance numbers are OK but not what they were in 2015-2019, which now might be perceived by some as the normal baseline.

I suspect that many Disney executives had high hopes with the theme park changes and 50th anniversary celebration. COVID, inflation, and reduced International Guest visitations have messed with corporate Disney's plans - I'm not sure where WDW is going to land.

It will be interesting to see if Universal's third theme park brings in more visitors to WDW or simply cannibalizes WDW.

From what has been announced, there's nothing for WDW fans to get excited about for the next five years, so WDW might sink or swim based on how the public reacts to Epic Universe.

Thanks to you both! I couldn't remember if room nights were counted even if out of the pool or not, obviously they are.

Yeah, I'm fairly sure the hubris inside Burbank during that time meant there was the belief that there were no price ceilings and demand would never wane. Covid is no excuse - They had plenty of time to knock the public's socks off for the 50th and they could not have missed the mark more than they did.

Personally, I think Universal is moving the see-saw closer to even tilt, if not even slightly in their favor, with EU. As long as they don't bungle the launch, of course. Bob and his Blue Ocean beliefs are going to hurt WDW for the next decade.

 

[Nubs70]

On the attendance figures, does an after hours/party turnstile contribute to a count of unique attendance figures on top of day visits? ie could someone be double counted on a day if they went to MK at 9 am and then stayed for a party?

After hours/party - if it's a separate ticket event, it's a separate unique visit.

WDW is double selling the parks.