Is attendance really down at WDW this or…

[LSLS]

We don't know how much. My guess is a lot considering during they avoided any questions about WDW.

True, though we should know a lot more in like 6-7 months when the reports come out. But that said, Len is pretty confident it could be as much as a 15% drop, so until we see some more concrete proof he's wrong, I'm sticking with the assumption of 10-15%.

 

[Nevermore525]

True, though we should know a lot more in like 6-7 months when the reports come out. But that said, Len is pretty confident it could be as much as a 15% drop, so until we see some more concrete proof he's wrong, I'm sticking with the assumption of 10-15%.

A 15% drop at WDW would equate to about a 40% gain at Disneyland based on the reported attendance. That doesn’t seem all that realistic.

 

[networkpro]

Yes, we need China to make the WDW souvenirs we buy and eventually throw in the landfill.

How many decades are we going to call China (a world power) an emerging country who is allowed to continue to build coal power plants?

It also has many different long term issues aside from economics. The largest one being population demographics cause mainly by the one child policy.

 

[LSLS]

A 15% drop at WDW would equate to about a 40% gain at Disneyland based on the reported attendance. That doesn’t seem all that realistic.

True. I honestly have no idea what goes into the numbers they filed, so who knows (cause it is interesting they show those increases when the heads have talked multiple times about WDW being down). I guess we will wait til the AECOM report comes out.

 

[Disstevefan1]

A 15% drop at WDW would equate to about a 40% gain at Disneyland based on the reported attendance. That doesn’t seem all that realistic.

Oh are you basing this on total domestic attendance of both parks?

I totally agree with you. DLR APs are a fraction now compared to what they were before they cancelled them all in order to restructure the programs.

 

[Nevermore525]

Oh are you basing this on total domestic attendance of both parks?

I totally agree with you. DLR APs are a fraction now compared to what they were before they cancelled them all in order to restructure the programs.

Yes based on the 6% rise in attendance YoY across all domestic parks the 4th quarter winds up being around 4-5% above the prior year. If WDW was truly down 15% last quarter DLR would have to be pulling in the range of 40% more guests than the prior year. To my knowledge there hasn’t been much reporting of overcrowding in Disneyland.

 

[Disstevefan1]

Yes based on the 6% rise in attendance YoY across all domestic parks the 4th quarter winds up being around 4-5% above the prior year. If WDW was truly down 15% last quarter DLR would have to be pulling in the range of 40% more guests than the prior year. To my knowledge there hasn’t been much reporting of overcrowding in Disneyland.

Yea, I cant imagine DLR is up 40 percent, they lost most of their AP population.

I think Disney is probably fudging the numbers.

Is @lentesta calculating the 15 percent down based on counting folks going on attractions, or folks entering the park?

I totally would buy attendance NOT being down at WDW by 15 percent, but the attraction ridership IS DOWN by 15 percent due to the awful Genie+ system; guests just wondering around going into the gift shops and buying food.

 

[Lilofan]

Yea, I cant imagine DLR is up 40 percent, they lost most of their AP population.

I think Disney is probably fudging the numbers.

Is @lentesta calculating the 15 percent down based on counting folks going on attractions, or folks entering the park?

I totally would buy attendance NOT being down at WDW by 15 percent, but the attraction ridership IS DOWN by 15 percent due to the awful Genie+ system; guests just wondering around going into the gift shops and buying food.

Like executives possibly " cooking the books" to qualify for bigger bonuses year end?

 

[wannabeBelle]

Like executives possibly " cooking the books" to qualify for bigger bonuses year end?

New math?? Marie

 

[Lilofan]

New math?? Marie

Some want to be the smartest guys in the room and try to convince others that they are. Didn't work well for Enron.

 

[LSLS]

They aren't cooking the books, Iger isn't close to dumb enough to take that risk. But we also don't know what attendance means. For example, do the added after hours factor in? Does DCL factor into that somehow? How does Disney shutting down sections of hotels over the summer factor into the numbers? Etc. Etc. It is very interesting that Disney did not shut down the talk of how much attendance was down at WDW, yet they are reporting a 6% increase for all domestic.

 

[eliza61nyc]

Like executives possibly " cooking the books" to qualify for bigger bonuses year end?

Whoo, thats a pretty big accusation.

 

[Lilofan]

They aren't cooking the books, Iger isn't close to dumb enough to take that risk. But we also don't know what attendance means. For example, do the added after hours factor in? Does DCL factor into that somehow? How does Disney shutting down sections of hotels over the summer factor into the numbers? Etc. Etc. It is very interesting that Disney did not shut down the talk of how much attendance was down at WDW, yet they are reporting a 6% increase for all domestic.

In the Wall Street earnings call , Iger danced around the domestic parks earnings question and focused on DCL and international parks success.

 

[lentesta]

Yea, I cant imagine DLR is up 40 percent, they lost most of their AP population.

I think Disney is probably fudging the numbers.

Is @lentesta calculating the 15 percent down based on counting folks going on attractions, or folks entering the park?

I totally would buy attendance NOT being down at WDW by 15 percent, but the attraction ridership IS DOWN by 15 percent due to the awful Genie+ system; guests just wondering around going into the gift shops and buying food.

Clearly I was wrong there. I’d love to see the breakdown of dlr vs wdw.

 

[Disstevefan1]

They aren't cooking the books, Iger isn't close to dumb enough to take that risk. But we also don't know what attendance means. For example, do the added after hours factor in? Does DCL factor into that somehow? How does Disney shutting down sections of hotels over the summer factor into the numbers? Etc. Etc. It is very interesting that Disney did not shut down the talk of how much attendance was down at WDW, yet they are reporting a 6% increase for all domestic.

Iger is indeed dumb, but I am sure he does not do anything with numbers, he just takes showers in his office.

 

[Nevermore525]

They aren't cooking the books, Iger isn't close to dumb enough to take that risk. But we also don't know what attendance means. For example, do the added after hours factor in? Does DCL factor into that somehow? How does Disney shutting down sections of hotels over the summer factor into the numbers? Etc. Etc. It is very interesting that Disney did not shut down the talk of how much attendance was down at WDW, yet they are reporting a 6% increase for all domestic.

From the 10-K Disney explains it:


(2)Attendance is used to analyze volume trends at our theme parks and is based on the number of unique daily entries, i.e. a person visiting multiple theme parks in a single day is counted only once. Our attendance count includes complimentary entries but excludes entries by children under the age of three.

(4)Occupancy is used to analyze the usage of available capacity at hotels and is defined as the number of room nights occupied by guests as a percentage of available hotel room nights.

(5)Available hotel room nights are defined as the total number of room nights that are available at our hotels and at DVC properties located at our theme parks and resorts that are not utilized by DVC members. Available hotel room nights include rooms temporarily taken out of service.


DCL falls under resorts and parks revenue but isn’t included in the attendance figures. Any closed off hotel sections are still counted as available room nights.

Counter point - For Disney to deny a report that attendance is down at the parks would be an admission of “we’re actually still crowded as ever”. No reason for a company to do that

 

[Jrb1979]

Overwhelmingly, domestic hotels are at WDW. DLR has relatively little influence on hotel numbers as there are far more Disney owned hotels at WDW than DLR.

At least for the domestic hotels, these numbers are telling you what’s going on at WDW.

I agree. It's funny there is still many that think everything is fine and these numbers are normal

 

[eliza61nyc]

I agree. It's funny there is still many that think everything is fine and these numbers are normal

They don't have to be "normal " they just have to be legal. So what you basically saying is that they are knowingly taking part in securities fraud at best.

As someone with a vested interest I simply want proof to your accusations
I could be misunderstanding what you mean

 

[Lilofan]

Iger is indeed dumb, but I am sure he does not do anything with numbers, he just takes showers in his office.

Whistleblower senior financial analyst cast member Sandra Kuba advised overstating revenue in the billions of dollars a few years ago while at the same time being fired.

 

[JD80]

I agree. It's funny there is still many that think everything is fine and these numbers are normal

Who?