Heh. Happy to help.
A couple of things:
1)
I think WDW attendance is down overall vs 2022. Our travel agency bookings for WDW are down about 20% vs last year, and TP subscriptions for WDW are down about the same amount. And in talking to other travel agencies, WDW bookings seem to be down about that amount across the board - everyone seems to be in the 20-25% down range.
In conversations with Disney about this, they acknowledge it. I will be astonished if Iger says WDW attendance is the same or higher this year vs 2022 on the August earnings call.
And while WDW bookings are down, other destinations like Europe and cruises are up such that our overall TA numbers are much higher than in 2022. (
I think DCL is running at ~96% capacity out of Port Canaveral, for example.)
FWIW, Universal says they're softer than expected too. While they won't say so publicly, in talking to them they acknowledge that a significant amount of their traffic comes from add-on trips after folks visit WDW.
So it's not a huge leap of logic to infer that the WDW slowdown is impacting all of central Florida's tourism numbers.
That's why we see Orange County tax revenue down. (Why is tax rev down 6-7% if tourism is down 20%? The tax rev is on hotels, and my guess is day trip guests from within Florida don't use hotels. Intrastate travel is something like 46% of Central Florida traffic, IIRC.)
2) That said,
I think the low wait times specifically for July 4 weekend were probably more related to weather and holiday trends, than anything else:
- There was a "stay indoors" heat advisory in effect for Central Florida for July 4, with a heat index of 112. That was part of a "heat dome" weather pattern for the previous weekend.
- Everyone knows Florida is hot in July. But this advisory specifically said it was "unusually hot".
- Likewise, there's always a chance of thunderstorms in Florida in July. And there was a 50% chance of afternoon thunderstorms.
So for July 4 specifically, I think the combination of the "stay indoors" advice along with the thunderstorms, kept people out of the parks.
3)
Wait times for July 5-7 bounced back to average/above average. Magic Kingdom crowd levels were 7/6/6 on that Wed/Thu/Fri, on our 1-to-10 scale.
4)
Here's some of the data I collected for the media interviews on this a couple weeks ago.
View attachment 733424
- There's been a general trend towards avoiding WDW on July 4 since at least last year, and probably going back to 2019.
- Universal Orlando and Disneyland also had low crowds on July 4. The low crowds at UOR seem to support the weather hypothesis.
- The low crowds at Disneyland seem to refute the idea that the slowdown is related to politics. For one thing, I don't think the Florida governor's advice has much impact on the vacation decisions that Californians make. Second, it would be awkward for the governor to acknowlege that his dispute with Disney specifically is hurting all of central Florida. That's a topic that nobody is going to touch.
5) I could be wrong on all of this. If there's better data that I missed, let me know.