Is attendance really down at WDW this or…

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Why even mention TA only discounts? They are for TA's only.

No…discounts offered by the online based travel agents - who buy chunks of blocks of rooms and sell them to their clients

Yeah…the 2023/2024 discounts are rather insane…which is a pretty stark contrast to what they had been told prior.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I’d love for @lentesta to comment because the touringplans crowd levels for October look pretty similar to previous October’s to me.

Len testa has been supporting the “softening” demand on the ground for the last 6 months.

Is October more crowded? Dvc wheelhouse times with food and wine and 24 dress up parties and assumed favorable weather?

…yeah…don’t have to sell me on that one…

But why is Christmas not looking great?

 

[JD80]

No…discounts offered by the online based travel agents - who buy chunks of blocks of rooms and sell them to their clients

Yeah…the 2023/2024 discounts are rather insane…which is a pretty stark contrast to what they had been told prior.

For WDW, TAs get a 10% commission from WDW on packages. Any extra discount you get from a TA is out of their pocket. I have never seen TAs getting block room discounts outside of special planned events.

Again, the '23 and '24 discounts are not special in terms of money saved vs any other year pre-COVID. The main difference, like I said, is the inventory, the duration of the offering, and how early the offering is released.

Usually they put in a discount 3-5 months prior to it taking effect to shore up soft bookings. Now it's 6-8 months out because they know they are incredibly soft and they need earlier juice. The only extra discount is 5ish percent more on a rack rate discount.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

For WDW, TAs get a 10% commission from WDW on packages. Any extra discount you get from a TA is out of their pocket. I have never seen TAs getting block room discounts outside of special planned events.

Have you ever worked for Disney in sales/
reservations or for a large travel agency?

 

[Cliff]

In a nutshell of the "other" Comcast stuff: Paramount Plus only lost $545 million this quarter, Cord cutting for their bread and butter cable business continues to contract with half a million subscribers lost combined with the previous quarters is a net 12% reduction in paying customers.

Wall Street is beginning to realize that subscriber numbers don't exactly translate in more streaming profit. If Disney announced this quarter that it now has 1 zillion subscribers....but Disney Plus is "still" losing money??? Wall Street is beginning to say "Don't tell us how great your sub numbers are....we want to see ACTUAL Disney Plus profit\loss numbers"

I was reading an article on how many people in India sub to Disney +. I'm thinking "Oh, that's good" but then the fine print says that Disney only gets about $0.25 per sub. Wow! Then I think about my own D+ sub. I get it free through Verizon and I don't even directly pay anything for Disney +....yet Disney still calls me a "subscriber" to the stockholders.

Again...what good is a ZILLION SUBSCRIBERS! if your service is still LOSING hundreds of millions of dollars EVERY single quarter,...of EVERY single year since the day it started??

Disney parks make money....and Disney + incinerates it.

 

[lentesta]

I’d love for @lentesta to comment because the touringplans crowd levels for October look pretty similar to previous October’s to me.

I really think attendance at WDW will be down 15% this year.

The crowd cal levels are based on wait times, which can change depending on demand, staffing levels, genie+, etc.

 

[GhostHost1000]

I really think attendance at WDW will be down 15% this year.

The crowd cal levels are based on wait times, which can change depending on demand, staffing levels, genie+, etc.

More attraction downtime can affect those levels as well since wait times would then be higher at other attractions that are operational…is that correct?

It feels like there is more attraction downtime then there used to be throughout the day but I have no proof of that other than just observations on my trips.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I really think attendance at WDW will be down 15% this year.

The crowd cal levels are based on wait times, which can change depending on demand, staffing levels, genie+, etc.

Just for reference - the “old” management considered a 5% dip “catastrophic”…
And yes…that little sweatered weasel’s picture was on the wall at that time…
…no one knew what he did…but still.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Wall Street is beginning to realize that subscriber numbers don't exactly translate in more streaming profit. If Disney announced this quarter that it now has 1 zillion subscribers....but Disney Plus is "still" losing money??? Wall Street is beginning to say "Don't tell us how great your sub numbers are....we want to see ACTUAL Disney Plus profit\loss numbers"

I was reading an article on how many people in India sub to Disney +. I'm thinking "Oh, that's good" but then the fine print says that Disney only gets about $0.25 per sub. Wow! Then I think about my own D+ sub. I get it free through Verizon and I don't even directly pay anything for Disney +....yet Disney still calls me a "subscriber" to the stockholders.

Again...what good is a zillion subscribers is your service is LOSING hundreds of millions of dollars EVERY single quarter,...of EVERY single year since the day it started??

Disney parks make money....and Disney + incinerates it.

This is the thing that - frankly - our far too “pro-Disney” friends here aren’t addressing

“It will be profitable in 2024”

Why? Exactly?

The only way is to charge ALOT more to subs and get ad revenue that - frankly - Madison Avenue has moved on from.

Their subs are so much over projections and yet still more and more bleed.

And remember: they aren’t running cable on poles or underground or paying for content to third parties…they NEVER were.

And people are also glossing over why Netflix is making what little money it does: they outspent all the other streams combined - by a lot - in the years leading into the shutdown.
Is Disney doing anything close?
Nope…not at all. They bought a studio that had NOTHING in their catalogue that fit.

 

[PREMiERdrum]

There's conflation here.... Disney works with both traditional TA's and wholesalers. A few shops do both. The recent softening of demand - and cratering of onsite package bookings - is affecting both in different ways.

 

[jpeden]

There's conflation here.... Disney works with both traditional TA's and wholesalers. A few shops do both. The recent softening of demand - and cratering of onsite package bookings - is affecting both in different ways.

So for example - the TA I work with used to have "agency exclusive" offers that were basically where they booked massive amounts of rooms from Disney Groups and they had really good discounts at the deluxe resorts. That agency has stated since COVID that the division of Disney that managed that process hasn't been brought back and they haven't been allowed to do that, but they also work in the traditional segment.

What is the difference between that and the "wholesalers" as you're describing them?

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

There's conflation here.... Disney works with both traditional TA's and wholesalers. A few shops do both. The recent softening of demand - and cratering of onsite package bookings - is affecting both in different ways.

Sorry…that conflation is my fault. I’m talking about the wholesalers…who have for decades done the bulk of Disneys travel bookings beyond direct/WDTC…

I’m not talking about Dotties Travel in Terra Haute, Indiana

You can probably guess who I’m talking about in 3 guesses or less?…

We should do a simple poll on this thread:
In one word, why is Disneys travel dipping in Orlando in 2023?
I’ll go: price (much more complicated that that…but I don’t want to break my own rules )

Now yinz go…

So for example - the TA I work with used to have "agency exclusive" offers that were basically where they booked massive amounts of rooms from Disney Groups and they had really good discounts at the deluxe resorts. That agency has stated since COVID that the division of Disney that managed that process hasn't been brought back and they haven't been allowed to do that, but they also work in the traditional segment.

What is the difference between that and the "wholesalers" as you're describing them?

Exactly

I’m told by an agency that still does exclusives (big fish) that they fought with them up until bobs “retirement”…sorry…the plague…that they were eliminating that business arrangement…

Why? Nobody can resist a paid queue in 98 degree heat for 40 year old rides…
…and some dudes from Stanford told them it will be that way until the heavens fall

 

[wannabeBelle]

We should do a simple poll on this thread:
In one word, why is Disneys travel dipping in Orlando in 2023?
I’ll go: price (much more complicated that that…but I don’t want to break my own rules )

Now yinz go…

Quality/ Value of experience. Marie

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Quality/ Value of experience. Marie

…pretty damning considering your background/experience

 

[lentesta]

More attraction downtime can affect those levels as well since wait times would then be higher at other attractions that are operational…is that correct?

It feels like there is more attraction downtime then there used to be throughout the day but I have no proof of that other than just observations on my trips.

Great point, @GhostHost1000. Attraction downtime is an important part of standby wait times.

Disney's MDE app reports downtime for WDW's attractions. Here's the average downtime per attraction for 2020, 2021, 2022, and 2023 YTD, per day, in minutes of downtime.

The numbers do not count planned refurbs as downtime. I can see an argument for including that, since the ride is not available to paying guests and Disney doesn't change the price of tickets.

The numbers only count outages during hours when guests are in the park. So if MDE is reporting GOTG is offline, but no guests are in EPCOT, that doesn't count in the charts below.

First, the Animal Kingdom should get credit for generally improving its ride availability:

Likewise, EPCOT has improved downtime at GOTG, SSE, and TT.

You could argue (and I would agree) that a 35% drop in downtime at Test Track isn't the headline because it's still offline 93 minutes per day on average. But it's early Monday morning, so let's try to look at the bright side of things.

Things are not great at Hollywood Studios, where four of the park's 10 rides have more than an hour of downtime per day. Also note that ROTR's downtime is so bad that the Unofficial Guide's advice is to buy the ILL for it, so you don't waste time in line for a ride that breaks down. That revenue is a perverse incentive for Disney not to fix the problem.

And the Magic Kingdom isn't great either, with another four major rides averaging over an hour of downtime per day:

Along with increasing ILL sales, it's my believe that ride downtime causes more sales of Genie+. This happens through a combination of G+ reservations for offline rides being converted to "good anywhere" G+s, which leads to longer lines at other attractions, which leads to more people purchasing G+ to avoid the long lines.

But I could be wrong. I spoke to some folks at UOR who have done this calculation for their own parks, and they did not reach the same conclusion for downtime and Express Pass sales.

 

[lentesta]

Just for reference - the “old” management considered a 5% dip “catastrophic”…
And yes…that little sweatered weasel’s picture was on the wall at that time…
…no one knew what he did…but still.

When did management explicitly move to focusing on revenue over attendance? I feel like it was ... 2019/2020? Earlier than that?

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

When did management explicitly move to focusing on revenue over attendance? I feel like it was ... 2019/2020? Earlier than that?

I’m dated…

But I think it was coming out of the housing crash…so like 2012-15 ish?
It has gotten really stupid after that.

The park model is simple: you generate more profit off more people through product and ancillary sales. Not tickets or $900 contemporary rates.
It sounds like Walmart…but it’s much better/more refined than that because the old philosophy was to maintain the value and edge over any potential competition. It was never a race to the bottom.

Anyway…I did and still do give Iger credit for the housing crash strategy: raise base prices, discount them…and come out with a huge revenue spike in the inevitable rebound.
Well played.
But everything since has a been a disaster. Creatively and in parks. It takes a while for a boardwalk pilings to rot away and get sucked into the sea. Doesn’t mean it won’t eventually happen.

 

[GhostHost1000]

Great point, @GhostHost1000. Attraction downtime is an important part of standby wait times.

Disney's MDE app reports downtime for WDW's attractions. Here's the average downtime per attraction for 2020, 2021, 2022, and 2023 YTD, per day, in minutes of downtime.

The numbers do not count planned refurbs as downtime. I can see an argument for including that, since the ride is not available to paying guests and Disney doesn't change the price of tickets.

The numbers only count outages during hours when guests are in the park. So if MDE is reporting GOTG is offline, but no guests are in EPCOT, that doesn't count in the charts below.

First, the Animal Kingdom should get credit for generally improving its ride availability:

View attachment 751673

Likewise, EPCOT has improved downtime at GOTG, SSE, and TT.

View attachment 751675

You could argue (and I would agree) that a 35% drop in downtime at Test Track isn't the headline because it's still offline 93 minutes per day on average. But it's early Monday morning, so let's try to look at the bright side of things.

Things are not great at Hollywood Studios, where four of the park's 10 rides have more than an hour of downtime per day. Also note that ROTR's downtime is so bad that the Unofficial Guide's advice is to buy the ILL for it, so you don't waste time in line for a ride that breaks down. That revenue is a perverse incentive for Disney not to fix the problem.

View attachment 751676

And the Magic Kingdom isn't great either, with another four major rides averaging over an hour of downtime per day:

View attachment 751677

Along with increasing ILL sales, it's my believe that ride downtime causes more sales of Genie+. This happens through a combination of G+ reservations for offline rides being converted to "good anywhere" G+s, which leads to longer lines at other attractions, which leads to more people purchasing G+ to avoid the long lines.

But I could be wrong. I spoke to some folks at UOR who have done this calculation for their own parks, and they did not reach the same conclusion for downtime and Express Pass sales.

Wow great data. Thanks

 

[lentesta]

No…discounts offered by the online based travel agents - who buy chunks of blocks of rooms and sell them to their clients

I'm told Disney fired the group that handled these bookings in 2020 during the pandemic, and never reformed it. So I don't think it's happening now. I could be wrong - if you know of an agency that's doing it, let me know.

Even before that, the group was really tightening the dates and rates that they were giving out.

 

[HauntedPirate]

Great point, @GhostHost1000. Attraction downtime is an important part of standby wait times.

Disney's MDE app reports downtime for WDW's attractions. Here's the average downtime per attraction for 2020, 2021, 2022, and 2023 YTD, per day, in minutes of downtime.

The numbers do not count planned refurbs as downtime. I can see an argument for including that, since the ride is not available to paying guests and Disney doesn't change the price of tickets.

The numbers only count outages during hours when guests are in the park. So if MDE is reporting GOTG is offline, but no guests are in EPCOT, that doesn't count in the charts below.

First, the Animal Kingdom should get credit for generally improving its ride availability:

View attachment 751673

Likewise, EPCOT has improved downtime at GOTG, SSE, and TT.

View attachment 751675

You could argue (and I would agree) that a 35% drop in downtime at Test Track isn't the headline because it's still offline 93 minutes per day on average. But it's early Monday morning, so let's try to look at the bright side of things.

Things are not great at Hollywood Studios, where four of the park's 10 rides have more than an hour of downtime per day. Also note that ROTR's downtime is so bad that the Unofficial Guide's advice is to buy the ILL for it, so you don't waste time in line for a ride that breaks down. That revenue is a perverse incentive for Disney not to fix the problem.

View attachment 751676

And the Magic Kingdom isn't great either, with another four major rides averaging over an hour of downtime per day:

View attachment 751677

Along with increasing ILL sales, it's my believe that ride downtime causes more sales of Genie+. This happens through a combination of G+ reservations for offline rides being converted to "good anywhere" G+s, which leads to longer lines at other attractions, which leads to more people purchasing G+ to avoid the long lines.

But I could be wrong. I spoke to some folks at UOR who have done this calculation for their own parks, and they did not reach the same conclusion for downtime and Express Pass sales.

That is fantastic data to share, thank you!

So the four most-recently built rides have some of the highest downtime, and are all over an hour. Yikes.

Very interesting to read your theory (which is probably more than theory, in reality) that the more frequent and longer downtimes are leading to higher Genie- sales as people try to avoid said downtimes. It really puts a different spin on Bob & Josh's statements that "guests love Genie-!" and all their bluster about half the guests buying it. And like you said, there is no incentive to fix the problem when the problem produces higher revenue. Perverse and frankly, sickening. They were becoming more maintenance-averse in recent years, and if you're correct, it's not going to get any better anytime soon. And then as they become more addicted to that revenue, it becomes harder to take rides offline for refurbs, mainly because there has been so little net-new capacity added across all four parks in the Bob era compared with attendance. As always, voting with your wallet is the best course of action. But too many people are endorsing the wrong thing.