Do you think that Disney world will reclose its gates due to the rising number of COVID cases in Florida and around the country?

[havoc315]

Pneumonia, flu and many other diseases are, and there are many other things that could be mandated to prevented or improve ones chances of getting cancer and/or heart attacks taht have better science to show improvement.

But we have vaccines for the flu... which make it far far less contagious and far far less dangerous.
"Pneumonia" isn't spread by a single infectious source. In fact, you can develop forms of pneumonia entirely without any source of viral or bacterial infection. (known as aspiration pneumonia). Flu causes death most often by causing pneumonia.

For that reason -- Flu and pneumonia deaths are often combined statistically. The US has 50,000-60,000 pneumonia/flu deaths per year.
The US has already had over 130,000 Covid deaths in 6 months.

We do lots of things to reduce the chances of cancer and heart attack: We have lots of limitations on smoking. We have limitations on radiation exposures. We develop medications for treatment.

So the logic of "lots of people die from other causes" simply holds no water.

But I find people get lost in statistics, which creates emotional distance. The deaths aren't "real" if they are just numbers.

So look at your family -- pick 2 family members over 65, and 1 family member between 40-65 (among all your uncles, aunts, cousins, parents): Kill all 3 of those people off. Now, pick 2 more people in your family between the ages of 30 and 65, give them a permanent fatigue syndrome and lung damage, reducing their life expectancy by 10 years.
And let's assume you're not immune either, so go ahead and give yourself a month totally limited in bed and sick, with the addition of 2 years of shortness of breath, 2 years of "temporary" but significant lung damage.

So if it's a choice: The scenario I just mentioned but non-essential businesses keep operating mostly normally...
OR... close non-essential businesses for 4 weeks-- but those harms don't befall you and your family members..

Now which do you pick?

Or will you say, "we shouldn't take any more preventative measures.. I don't care if several of my relatives get sick and die"

 

[havoc315]

Current projections by IHME are, by November 1st (less than a whole year), the US will have 170,000 and 300,000 deaths.

To a great deal, the results are within our control. Loosen up and make mistakes... get to 300,000 (or even higher). Everyone gets serious about social distancing and masks, maybe much closer to 170,000.

We are already at 130,000 deaths.

So how many more deaths do we want in the next 3 1/2 months? Another 40,000 or another 170,000?
(Really, the numbers can go much much higher if we really screw up. The high number assumes slight easing of restrictions, the low number assumed universal masking).

 

[legwand77]

You are good with numbers, but your "family" hypothetical you have to see is very very far off from reality of the numbers to the point of absurd.

 

[havoc315]

It's tricky to determine if a death is caused by COVID sometimes. I know in some Florida hospitals, they are calling a person COVID positive if they exhibit COVID like symptoms without testing to play it safe.

As for deaths "caused by COVID" I suspect there is some guess work also. An unhealthy person could have one foot in the grave and the other on a banana peel not related to COVID, and was maybe called COVID positive by symptoms and not tests.

When it doubt, call it a death by COVID to play it safe.

That's not exactly how they are doing it. For hospitalizations, they are only listing it as a Covid hospitalization if that's the PRIMARY diagnosis. They don't list it as a Covid hospitalization, for example, if someone is hospitalized for a car accident and they incidentally test positive for Covid. (though Covid infection controls are of course activated).

Now, for ALL diseases/conditions: Diagnosis doesn't depend on a single lab test. Diagnosis a clinical finding. That's true for everything. A physician forms a diagnosis by looking at all the evidence.
So there is a major backlog on Covid testing, up to a week or longer in some places.
But Covid has a very unique effect on lung tissue-- a ground glass effect. Now with experience, a radiologist can look at an x-ray and diagnose Covid probably better than the Covid PCR tests.

So if a patient comes in to the ER with shortness of breath, fever, loss of taste... if they say they had contact with another Covid patient, and their chest X-ray shows the ground glass signature -- Any good physician would diagnose the patient as having Covid. Even while they wait for test results... even if the test is negative. The overall evidence would be so suggestive of Covid, it would be presumed that the test was a false negative. (though a re-test would be done a few days later)

That's how medicine works.

 

[legwand77]

Seaworld bringing back fireworks. Disney most likely will too judging from the capacity in the parks, they could easliy do it and maintain social distancing.

Ignite 360 Summer Fireworks | SeaWorld Orlando

A spectacular ending to your evening with Ignite 360 fireworks. Enjoy this nightly fireworks and fountain spectacular that brings the brilliant colors of the sea to the skies above the park

seaworld.com

 

[Parker in NYC]

Did I just see the new goal posts? 5 million a day? Doesn’t matter? Just checking because everyday it’s something new.

It's survival of the fittest! Herd mentality for the strongest! That's what nature is all about. And getting a virtual queue ressie to Rise of the Resistance.

 

[DisneyCane]

The science and stats suggest that the large prior spread *contributes* to the significance of the decline and current case counts. But it is likely only a minor contributor.... Seroprevalence is still under 20% in New York. So the vast majority of New Yorkers have never been exposed.

Agree but that's still almost 1 in 5 people that get in the way of transmission and further spread. Not near the level for herd immunity but my sense is that it helps a lot.

 

[havoc315]

Agree but that's still almost 1 in 5 people that get in the way of transmission and further spread. Not near the level for herd immunity but my sense is that it helps a lot.

My understanding is the foremost epidemiologists can't yet say the degree of the effect. They do agree is contributes, they don't know how much it contributes.

Of course, to reach "a lot" -- that would mean 20% of Florida's population infected, with an overall case fatality rate of about 0.6% based on the best evidence I've seen...
So if you're right.... That's about 25,000 deaths (about 15,000 in addition to the current deaths)... as things come down due to this "mini herd" immunity.

That's quite a steep price to pay. On a national level, it would equate to 400,000 deaths -- which is actually within the realm of possibility by the end of the year. (though likely only if we really drop all mitigation efforts).

 

[MickeyMouse10]

I think the parks are actually doing a great job of spacing people out. They had the characters on boats at Animal Kingdom park.

A great spot to jump aboard is the bridges they go under. Just make sure you time it right though or you'll just fall in the water.

 

[Sparksfly]

What I’m saying is, some people see the COVID deaths but not the deaths caused by the shutdown, which are many more.

If this is true, then it would lend more to the fact/argument people need to follow the right measures so we can open SAFELY again.

 

[rle4lunch]

FOX 35 INVESTIGATES: Florida Department of Health says some labs have not reported negative COVID-19 results

The Florida Department of Health released its daily coronavirus testing report showing a statewide positivity rate of 11 percent, but FOX 35 News investigated and quickly noticed some shocking positivity rates.

www.fox35orlando.com

 

[Disstevefan1]

FOX 35 INVESTIGATES: Florida Department of Health says some labs have not reported negative COVID-19 results

The Florida Department of Health released its daily coronavirus testing report showing a statewide positivity rate of 11 percent, but FOX 35 News investigated and quickly noticed some shocking positivity rates.

www.fox35orlando.com

THIS IS BAD! No matter what side of the should the parks open argument you are on, WE ALL look at the numbers! Simply put, WE CANNOT TRUST THE NUMBERS for either side of the argument!!!

 

[stratman50th]

It's tricky to determine if a death is caused by COVID sometimes. I know in some Florida hospitals, they are calling a person COVID positive if they exhibit COVID like symptoms without testing to play it safe.

As for deaths "caused by COVID" I suspect there is some guess work also. An unhealthy person could have one foot in the grave and the other on a banana peel not related to COVID, and was maybe called COVID positive by symptoms and not tests.

When it doubt, call it a death by COVID to play it safe.

I would have thought this was crazy except I was talking with a friend today. Her aunt was exhibiting flu like symptoms last weekend and went to the ED. She was told there would be an approx. 30 minute wait until she would be seen. After three hours waiting she went home. She received a letter yesterday from the hospital stating she had tested positive for COVID. (Central Florida). SMH...

 

[rle4lunch]

THIS IS BAD! No matter what side of the should the parks open argument you are on, WE ALL look at the numbers! Simply put, WE CANNOT TRUST THE NUMBERS for either side of the argument!!!

Exactly.

 

[Curiosity]

 

[DisneyDebRob]

Yep. Been talked about all day yesterday. Doesn’t change the number much at all. Next subject.

 

[Disstevefan1]

Yep. Been talked about all day yesterday. Doesn’t change the number much at all. Next subject.

It makes you think though.. How insignificant or wide spread is this happening. Folks will say it my be as little as 3 percent in either direction, but no one knows for sure how messed up the numbers are now 4 months in.. We just look at numbers on a web page. They could (and do apparently) put up whatever numbers and (try) to keep them correct.

Then I thought, well maybe can use ICU beds as an indicator. Maybe not, as ICU beds may be used to quarantine COVID people in some hospitals?

Then I thought, well maybe COVID deaths may be good indicator, maybe not, as some deaths may be improperly called a COVID deaths?

One thing I think we all agree, the news media LOVES to see big numbers, spikes etc. it's better for their business.

I have lost faith in the numbers and how they are collected. Will I continue to wear a mask YES, choosing not to wear a mask does not make the numbers any more accurate, COVID is real, the daily numbers, I do not know..

 

[Polkadotdress]

To early to say imho. There have been a few worse.

Since your view seems to be “everything’s fine”, can I ask what is your version of everything NOT being fine? What does a poor/bad plan look like for FL?

 

[Curiosity]

no one knows for sure how messed up the numbers are now 4 months in

I think that's an over reaction. Saying there's an error of +/- 3% is very different than saying we don't know anything, i.e an error of +/- 100%. With so many places and people reporting numbers there was always going to be some level of error. That doesn't mean the general message: cases are high and getting higher, hospitalizations are increasing, is in question.

They could (and do apparently) put up whatever numbers and (try) to keep them correct.

Generally, most people don't have the default assumption that everything is a lie. Just because, theoretically someone could lie, isn't a reason to assume they are. I don't know how you'd live if everything had to be proven to you personally before you'd believe it.

the news media LOVES to see big numbers, spikes etc. it's better for their business.

True, and you'd know what would make a great, sensational headline? Hospitals/doctors/politicians lying about how many coronavirus cases and deaths occurred. I mean that Fox network just did it for a 3% max error. A willful 50% or more type error? That would drive massive viewership/clicks. That could win a journalism award! And yet, that size of error isn't being reported anywhere...maybe because errors on that size haven't been found...

Will I continue to wear a mask YES

I'm glad you are and I don't want to pick on you. It's just that I find the jump from "there's a margin of error in this data" to "we don't know anything!! a frustrating one. Because some people will think, "we don't really know what's happening so why should I inconvenience myself and wear a mask?" And that's a bad message to take.

In the end, whether there were 470 deaths yesterday or 449 deaths yesterday shouldn't really change the decision making of the average person. The numbers, as they are now, are good enough for decision making purposes.

 

[Disstevefan1]

I think that's an over reaction. Saying there's an error of +/- 3% is very different than saying we don't know anything, i.e an error of +/- 100%. With so many places and people reporting numbers there was always going to be some level of error. That doesn't mean the general message: cases are high and getting higher, hospitalizations are increasing, is in question.



Generally, most people don't have the default assumption that everything is a lie. Just because, theoretically someone could lie, isn't a reason to assume they are. I don't know how you'd live if everything had to be proven to you personally before you'd believe it.


True, and you'd know what would make a great, sensational headline? Hospitals/doctors/politicians lying about how many coronavirus cases and deaths occurred. I mean that Fox network just did it for a 3% max error. A willful 50% or more type error? That would drive massive viewership/clicks. That could win a journalism award! And yet, that size of error isn't being reported anywhere...maybe because errors on that size haven't been found...



I'm glad you are and I don't want to pick on you. It's just that I find the jump from "there's a margin of error in this data" to "we don't know anything!! a frustrating one. Because some people will think, "we don't really know what's happening so why should I inconvenience myself and wear a mask?" And that's a bad message to take.

In the end, whether there were 470 deaths yesterday or 449 deaths yesterday shouldn't really change the decision making of the average person. The numbers, as they are now, are good enough for decision making purposes.

Oh no, there are numbers in your reply I am going to stop looking at the numbers daily... I am going to keep my mask on and maybe check them twice a month.... Oh wait, I can't, as the numbers (right, wrong, who knows) are in my face wherever I turn..... I have no faith in the numbers in either direction.