And that is the same place the media is getting their information, as they link it in their articles. Also note those numbers do not include the surge capacity at the hospitals, so surge capacity is even higher. The usually have less capacity Tue-Thur and then reduce over the weekend, that has been the pulse for the past month or so.
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Do you think that Disney world will reclose its gates due to the rising number of COVID cases in Florida and around the country?
- Thread starter Logan L
- Start date
Yes but remember a vast majority positives cases has a low chance of hospitalization and even much lower chance of death.
Surge capacity is a bit of a fiction.
yes, you can set up hundreds of cots in a gymnasium.
But ICUs aren’t designed to operate even at 90% for any sustained period. You quickly run out of doctors and nurses at ratios that provide optimal coverage.
Basically... once you hit more than approximately 80% capacity.. (variable with other factors), patients are no longer able to get optimal care.
bartholomr4
Well-Known Member
Some facts from the raw data reported today. I know there are 156 Deaths reported, but in the actual data file there are only 126 listed
Of the 126 souls who died, 1 was initially reported with Covid in April, 4 were reported in May, 43 were reported in June and 78 were reported with the virus in July. Of the 78 who were reported in July, 31 were reported with Covid on the same day as their death.
Ages of those who died:
20 to 29 years: 1 death
30 to 39 Years: 5
40 to 49 years: no deaths
50 to 59 years: 8
60 to 69 years: 20
70 to 79 years: 31
80 to 89 years: 54
90 to 99 years: 15
100+ years: 1
Now, let's dig deeper... the point of rolling averages. Most deaths are not reported on the day of their death -- As you indicated, nearly half were delayed by at least several weeks.
Meaning, the majority of the deaths from the last week, haven't even been reported yet.
So we don't know how many actually died "yesterday." Could be a bit lower than actually being 156 -- could be much much higher than 156.
But by looking at the rolling average, we know we are going in a very bad direction.
Got a Russian roulette fan here.
Just one of the many articles reporting that is not the case. Article is from June but capacity are the same now as they were then some cases even better.
Florida Hospitals Have Sufficient Capacity As Coronavirus Cases Surge, Officials Report
Though a state dashboard shows some hospitals are nearing capacity, Gov. Ron DeSantis and health care executives from around Florida said Friday there are…
wusfnews.wusf.usf.edu
So unless you favor a government mandate where the government can randomly pick people, show up at their homes, and force them to take a test -- Then the current testing model is HOW you randomly test asymptomatic people. By letting people voluntarily get tested.
I can tell you, the vast majority of people getting tested aren't exactly "asymptomatic" -- They are having symptoms that could be consistent with Covid (a cough, a fever), or they have concerns because they were in contact with a Covid-positive individual (potentially PRE-symptomatic), or they have a reason they need to be tested (upcoming travel, upcoming surgery).
Very few people are saying, "I feel totally fine, I don't know anybody with Covid, but I'm going to sit in my car in a 3 hour line to get a Covid test anyway." -- I'm sure there are some people doing that, but the majority are getting tested for a reason.
And huge voluntary testing is HOW you spot outbreaks early. Instead of waiting for hundreds of symptomatic cases to show up in a town, you catch the handful of pre-symptomatic people, before they spread it to hundreds.
Again you metaphors are way off and absurd and somewhat insulting. So you are saying that there is a 1 in 6 chance of the average person dying from the covid. Might want to check the numbers again.
easyrowrdw
Well-Known Member
This is what some of the local epidemiologists were saying. The hospitals can expand capacity by quite a lot. The problem is that you can't staff appropriately at those levels.
In your own breakdown over 2/3 would be for asymptomatic reasons. Only the first group might have a cough or fever. The rest are getting test for other reasons per your scenerio
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Ok now changing it, but math still off (maybe if in a nursing home in NY), it really is not worth discussing this any more. lets move on.
OrlandoRising
Well-Known Member
Hi again. I'd like to chime in because, as I've mentioned before, my day job is reporting on health misinformation.
This thread is repeating a number of the same tropes about the COVID-19 case numbers that I've seen on far-right or conspiracy theory websites.
A few points:
-There is no evidence that there is any systematic overreporting, inflation, or manipulation of the number of COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, or deaths.
-There is no evidence that asymptomatic spread has exposed anywhere close to enough people to achieve herd immunity. Serological studies are estimates at best and many of the most well-publicized ones had obviously biased sample populations (one in California, for instance, advertised the study on Facebook, which would likely drawn in more people that had reason to believe they had been exposed, rather than a random sample).
-Beyond the likely death toll from a "natural herd immunity" strategy -- not only from COVID-19, but from overloading hospitals -- we don't know enough about the long-term effects of COVID-19 or how long immunity lasts to make that a viable strategy.
-There are many possible reasons the death toll is lower at this moment. Have hospitals gotten better at treating severe COVID-19 cases? Do people recognize the symptoms faster and seek medical help earlier? Are the people getting infected getting a smaller viral load than those in New York in March and April? Death is also a lagging indicator, so of course cases are going go up first before deaths.
This is misleading.
People try to draw this distinction between "death by COVID" and "death with COVID," but that's not really how determining a cause of death works. If you look at a death certificate, there's two sections: Part I explains the exact sequence of conditions that led to the death, Part II includes conditions that contributed to the death but was not involved in that Part I sequence. Many underlying conditions -- which most Americans have, by the way -- would be listed on a death certificate in some fashion and that was the case long before the pandemic. That does not mean the person died of that underlying condition and their COVID infection was either imagined or unrelated to their death.
While different states have different standards for what's a "probable" COVID case in the absence of a positive test, implying that medical professionals are making that determination "to play it safe" or to boost their Medicare payments is, frankly, an insult to people who are risking their lives for yours right now.
This thread is repeating a number of the same tropes about the COVID-19 case numbers that I've seen on far-right or conspiracy theory websites.
A few points:
-There is no evidence that there is any systematic overreporting, inflation, or manipulation of the number of COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, or deaths.
-There is no evidence that asymptomatic spread has exposed anywhere close to enough people to achieve herd immunity. Serological studies are estimates at best and many of the most well-publicized ones had obviously biased sample populations (one in California, for instance, advertised the study on Facebook, which would likely drawn in more people that had reason to believe they had been exposed, rather than a random sample).
-Beyond the likely death toll from a "natural herd immunity" strategy -- not only from COVID-19, but from overloading hospitals -- we don't know enough about the long-term effects of COVID-19 or how long immunity lasts to make that a viable strategy.
-There are many possible reasons the death toll is lower at this moment. Have hospitals gotten better at treating severe COVID-19 cases? Do people recognize the symptoms faster and seek medical help earlier? Are the people getting infected getting a smaller viral load than those in New York in March and April? Death is also a lagging indicator, so of course cases are going go up first before deaths.
This is misleading.
People try to draw this distinction between "death by COVID" and "death with COVID," but that's not really how determining a cause of death works. If you look at a death certificate, there's two sections: Part I explains the exact sequence of conditions that led to the death, Part II includes conditions that contributed to the death but was not involved in that Part I sequence. Many underlying conditions -- which most Americans have, by the way -- would be listed on a death certificate in some fashion and that was the case long before the pandemic. That does not mean the person died of that underlying condition and their COVID infection was either imagined or unrelated to their death.
While different states have different standards for what's a "probable" COVID case in the absence of a positive test, implying that medical professionals are making that determination "to play it safe" or to boost their Medicare payments is, frankly, an insult to people who are risking their lives for yours right now.
Just one of the many articles reporting that is not the case. Article is from June but capacity are the same now as they were then some cases even better.
Florida Hospitals Have Sufficient Capacity As Coronavirus Cases Surge, Officials Report
Though a state dashboard shows some hospitals are nearing capacity, Gov. Ron DeSantis and health care executives from around Florida said Friday there are…
That article is 1 month old. Enough said.
I spoke to an ICU director in New York in mid March. He assured me that his hospital's ICU had plenty of capacity for anything that came.
By May, ICU doctors were caring for 10+ patients each, when they are only supposed to care for 3. Half the hospital had been converted to "surge" ICU. One ICU doctor related a story about how 3 ICU patients went into arrest at the same time, but they only had 2 crash carts on the floor, so they couldn't even really try to resuscitate 1 of the 3.
So no, don't cite a 1-month-old article spinning that there was plenty of capacity.
At the current rate of increased hospitalization, the entire Florida hospital system would be overwhelmed in another 3 weeks. (I don't expect that to happen, as more localities have taken preventative measures.. as more individuals choose to take proper measures. But if everyone listened to Trump and DeSantis, then the Florida system would be overwhelmed by sometime in August).
Every study has indicated a true CFR of between 0.5 to 1%. So the math is exactly right.
did you read the article I linked that is covered and they are currently staffing up in Miami Dade just in case as well
Correct -- Are you saying that people who have been exposed to Covid shouldn't get tested? Or that people shouldn't get tested before being admitted to the hospital for an elective procedure?
And my breakdown doesn't list the number of people -- I didn't say just 2/3rds are asymptomatic. Maybe 90% are there for fever and cough.
Point is -- the overwhelming majority getting tested are getting tested for darn good reasons.
Horizons '83
Well-Known Member
- In the Parks
- No
That article you linked a month old. Things have changed since that article was written.
I read it. It does NOT address the currently level and increasing level of hospitalizations. THey were not anticipating what they are seeing now.