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Do you think that Disney world will reclose its gates due to the rising number of COVID cases in Florida and around the country?
- Thread starter Logan L
- Start date
Ok now changing it, but math still off (maybe if in a nursing home in NY), it really is not worth discussing this any more. lets move on.
OrlandoRising
Well-Known Member
Hi again. I'd like to chime in because, as I've mentioned before, my day job is reporting on health misinformation.
This thread is repeating a number of the same tropes about the COVID-19 case numbers that I've seen on far-right or conspiracy theory websites.
A few points:
-There is no evidence that there is any systematic overreporting, inflation, or manipulation of the number of COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, or deaths.
-There is no evidence that asymptomatic spread has exposed anywhere close to enough people to achieve herd immunity. Serological studies are estimates at best and many of the most well-publicized ones had obviously biased sample populations (one in California, for instance, advertised the study on Facebook, which would likely drawn in more people that had reason to believe they had been exposed, rather than a random sample).
-Beyond the likely death toll from a "natural herd immunity" strategy -- not only from COVID-19, but from overloading hospitals -- we don't know enough about the long-term effects of COVID-19 or how long immunity lasts to make that a viable strategy.
-There are many possible reasons the death toll is lower at this moment. Have hospitals gotten better at treating severe COVID-19 cases? Do people recognize the symptoms faster and seek medical help earlier? Are the people getting infected getting a smaller viral load than those in New York in March and April? Death is also a lagging indicator, so of course cases are going go up first before deaths.
This is misleading.
People try to draw this distinction between "death by COVID" and "death with COVID," but that's not really how determining a cause of death works. If you look at a death certificate, there's two sections: Part I explains the exact sequence of conditions that led to the death, Part II includes conditions that contributed to the death but was not involved in that Part I sequence. Many underlying conditions -- which most Americans have, by the way -- would be listed on a death certificate in some fashion and that was the case long before the pandemic. That does not mean the person died of that underlying condition and their COVID infection was either imagined or unrelated to their death.
While different states have different standards for what's a "probable" COVID case in the absence of a positive test, implying that medical professionals are making that determination "to play it safe" or to boost their Medicare payments is, frankly, an insult to people who are risking their lives for yours right now.
This thread is repeating a number of the same tropes about the COVID-19 case numbers that I've seen on far-right or conspiracy theory websites.
A few points:
-There is no evidence that there is any systematic overreporting, inflation, or manipulation of the number of COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, or deaths.
-There is no evidence that asymptomatic spread has exposed anywhere close to enough people to achieve herd immunity. Serological studies are estimates at best and many of the most well-publicized ones had obviously biased sample populations (one in California, for instance, advertised the study on Facebook, which would likely drawn in more people that had reason to believe they had been exposed, rather than a random sample).
-Beyond the likely death toll from a "natural herd immunity" strategy -- not only from COVID-19, but from overloading hospitals -- we don't know enough about the long-term effects of COVID-19 or how long immunity lasts to make that a viable strategy.
-There are many possible reasons the death toll is lower at this moment. Have hospitals gotten better at treating severe COVID-19 cases? Do people recognize the symptoms faster and seek medical help earlier? Are the people getting infected getting a smaller viral load than those in New York in March and April? Death is also a lagging indicator, so of course cases are going go up first before deaths.
This is misleading.
People try to draw this distinction between "death by COVID" and "death with COVID," but that's not really how determining a cause of death works. If you look at a death certificate, there's two sections: Part I explains the exact sequence of conditions that led to the death, Part II includes conditions that contributed to the death but was not involved in that Part I sequence. Many underlying conditions -- which most Americans have, by the way -- would be listed on a death certificate in some fashion and that was the case long before the pandemic. That does not mean the person died of that underlying condition and their COVID infection was either imagined or unrelated to their death.
While different states have different standards for what's a "probable" COVID case in the absence of a positive test, implying that medical professionals are making that determination "to play it safe" or to boost their Medicare payments is, frankly, an insult to people who are risking their lives for yours right now.
Just one of the many articles reporting that is not the case. Article is from June but capacity are the same now as they were then some cases even better.
Florida Hospitals Have Sufficient Capacity As Coronavirus Cases Surge, Officials Report
Though a state dashboard shows some hospitals are nearing capacity, Gov. Ron DeSantis and health care executives from around Florida said Friday there are…wusfnews.wusf.usf.edu
That article is 1 month old. Enough said.
I spoke to an ICU director in New York in mid March. He assured me that his hospital's ICU had plenty of capacity for anything that came.
By May, ICU doctors were caring for 10+ patients each, when they are only supposed to care for 3. Half the hospital had been converted to "surge" ICU. One ICU doctor related a story about how 3 ICU patients went into arrest at the same time, but they only had 2 crash carts on the floor, so they couldn't even really try to resuscitate 1 of the 3.
So no, don't cite a 1-month-old article spinning that there was plenty of capacity.
At the current rate of increased hospitalization, the entire Florida hospital system would be overwhelmed in another 3 weeks. (I don't expect that to happen, as more localities have taken preventative measures.. as more individuals choose to take proper measures. But if everyone listened to Trump and DeSantis, then the Florida system would be overwhelmed by sometime in August).
Every study has indicated a true CFR of between 0.5 to 1%. So the math is exactly right.
did you read the article I linked that is covered and they are currently staffing up in Miami Dade just in case as well
Correct -- Are you saying that people who have been exposed to Covid shouldn't get tested? Or that people shouldn't get tested before being admitted to the hospital for an elective procedure?
And my breakdown doesn't list the number of people -- I didn't say just 2/3rds are asymptomatic. Maybe 90% are there for fever and cough.
Point is -- the overwhelming majority getting tested are getting tested for darn good reasons.
Horizons '83
Well-Known Member
- In the Parks
- No
That article you linked a month old. Things have changed since that article was written.
I read it. It does NOT address the currently level and increasing level of hospitalizations. THey were not anticipating what they are seeing now.
Doctors can handle more then 3 patients. I think you are confusing professions, those numbers sound more like nurses. Caring for 10 ICU pts as an attending doctor is a busier normal day. 3 pts is an incredibly slow day.
easyrowrdw
Well-Known Member
I did. I wasn't talking about Miami. Regardless, staffing up to a certain level is one thing; staffing beyond that level is another. That was the point the epidemiologist was making. It's a similar issue with equipment.
Alas knew you would say that hence
Article is from June but capacity are the same now as they were then some cases even better.
You could have said that then probably did
, others were, that hospitals were going to be over run in three weeks. Well it has been over three weeks and it is still the same.
Kamikaze
Well-Known Member
How about UNDERreporting of the bolded? It happened in NY, I'm sure its happening elsewhere. Its been months since that FL woman came out speaking about it and was quickly removed from her job.
oceanbreeze77
Well-Known Member
except theres 500 new admissions every day....soo...not the sameAlas knew you would say that hence
Article is from June but capacity are the same now as they were then some cases even better.
You could have said that then probably did
Kamikaze
Well-Known Member
Alas knew you would say that hence
Article is from June but capacity are the same now as they were then some cases even better.
You could have said that then probably did
Source?
I am going by what the hospitals are saying not epidemiologists on this point
how many discharges?
This board (some posters have been saying hospitals are going to be overrun for over a month now, with data, saying 50 hospitals have 0 ICU beds in the state etc.) , the state reports, the link shown earlier multiple times.
easyrowrdw
Well-Known Member
The epidemiologist I referenced works for the hospital and is part of the county planning team.
Alas knew you would say that hence
Article is from June but capacity are the same now as they were then some cases even better.
You could have said that then probably did
?????? No, the utilized capacity is NOT the same now.
Unfortunately, Florida didn't start publishing current hospitalization numbers till this week. We know, hospitalizations have increased by 20% in just the past week!!!
No... nobody would have said in mid June that hospitals were about to be overwhelmed.
On June 19th, when the article was written, the 7-day daily average cases for Florida was 2,682. Now, the average cases is 11,147.
So there has been a 400% increase in cases since the article was written.
We know there has been a 20% increase in hospitalization in just the last week. (we don't have numbers for mid June)
Over the month, there has been about a 100% increase in testing -- But a 100% increase in testing with a 400% increase in cases -- Is indicative of massive increase in actual cases.
So you're taking an article from mid June when maybe there were 2,000-3,000 people actually hospitalized with Covid, quoting people saying, "we aren't worried, we have plenty of capacity" -- And you're just assuming the same holds true now a month later, with a massive increase in cases, with 9,000 Covid patients hospitalized, and that number constantly increasing.
I can imagine 1 million people in the hospital with Covid, patients stretched out on lawn chairs in the parking lot, and you'd be, "this old article says they have plenty of capacity!"