Do you think that Disney world will reclose its gates due to the rising number of COVID cases in Florida and around the country?

[Tom P.]

Birx says states with surges should return to phase one guidelines.

States with surges should return to "phase one" guidelines, Birx says

The coronavirus pandemic has brought countries to a standstill. In many places, as countries reopen, Covid-19 cases are on the rise. Follow here for the latest.

www.cnn.com

 

[Parker in NYC]

Birx says states with surges should return to phase one guidelines.

States with surges should return to "phase one" guidelines, Birx says

The coronavirus pandemic has brought countries to a standstill. In many places, as countries reopen, Covid-19 cases are on the rise. Follow here for the latest.

www.cnn.com

And that'll be the day.

 

[Horizons '83]

Birx says states with surges should return to phase one guidelines.

States with surges should return to "phase one" guidelines, Birx says

The coronavirus pandemic has brought countries to a standstill. In many places, as countries reopen, Covid-19 cases are on the rise. Follow here for the latest.

www.cnn.com

Also in the same update today she is quoted saying this (she is all over the map today haha)

Birx lays out "encouraging" trends for coronavirus in Arizona, Texas and Florida

The coronavirus pandemic has brought countries to a standstill. In many places, as countries reopen, Covid-19 cases are on the rise. Follow here for the latest.

www.cnn.com

 

[legwand77]

And that'll be the day.

A good bit have already.

 

[havoc315]

Interesting FL stat breakdown and falls right in with CDC's estimate of 99.97% survival rate for those under 50 and only .16% off of the 99.74% overall rate.

Over 150K cases of Covid19 have been found in FL since June.
50K of those are over 45 yrs old resulting in 600 deaths
100K are under 45 yrs old & have resulted in 28 deaths (all had multiple underlying issues)

No shock that much more deadly in older population.
But be careful calculating "survival rates" -- Many June infections have not "survived" yet. I know many victims of Covid who languished for 6+ weeks before dying.
In other words, out of those 150k infections, we are still a long way off from knowing how many died or survived. There are likely still hundreds, if not thousands, of deaths from those June infections that either haven't been reported yet or haven't happened yet. (Lest not we forget the lag in reporting)

 

[Sparksfly]

Interesting FL stat breakdown and falls right in with CDC's estimate of 99.97% survival rate for those under 50 and only .16% off of the 99.74% overall rate.

Over 150K cases of Covid19 have been found in FL since June.
50K of those are over 45 yrs old resulting in 600 deaths
100K are under 45 yrs old & have resulted in 28 deaths (all had multiple underlying issues)

Given that FL is one of the (if not the) top retirement capitals in the U.S. this is a bigger deal than much of you here are seeing this as.

 

[DisneyOutsider]

Given that FL is one of the (if not the) top retirement capitals in the U.S. this is a bigger deal than much of you here are seeing this as.

You mean it's "God's Waiting Room" ??

 

[monykalyn]

Why won't the positivity rate go down!?!?!?!?!
View attachment 482146

Because Florida counts tests not unique individuals tested- so one positive person who must be tested multiple times to get the negative to return to work - now multiply that by thousands of people/employees in same situation-testing the same positive people over and over. And the negative tests may not need as many repeat tests.

Dr John Campbell has an interesting talk today (youtube) on obesity and CV risk. Wonder why USA is being hit hard and younger are sicker? look to the rates of obesity in this country-especially in younger people vs other countries....

 

[legwand77]

Given that FL is one of the (if not the) top retirement capitals in the U.S. this is a bigger deal than much of you here are seeing this as.

What am I seeing it as? and those are Florida numbers

 

[DCBaker]

Because Florida counts tests not unique individuals tested- so one positive person who must be tested multiple times to get the negative to return to work - now multiply that by thousands of people/employees in same situation-testing the same positive people over and over. And the negative tests may not need as many repeat tests.

On the graph you quoted, that is not the case. Read the text above the graph.

 

[monykalyn]

Looks like those ICU reservations may be harder to get than Be Our Guest! I hope savvy WDW guests have a plan.

Local health systems have raised issues with interpreting the occupancy rates as a surge in COVID-19 patients and have said that their hospitals are full because they’re going back to normal operations.
Orlando Health and AdventHeath, the two major health systems in Central Florida, have continued to say that they have enough capacity and can meet the needs of all patients.

Why it is important to read BEYOND THE HEADLINES. Texas hospital administrators have also expressed much frustration with media portrayals of "full hospitals" as people are DELAYING care making themselves sicker when they finally do go in! And it is one reason why hospitals are reluctant to disperse flat numbers as occupancy means different things.

 

[monykalyn]

On the graph you quoted, that is not the case. Read the text above the graph.

where is it from? other sites say Florida doesn't separate out its numbers (that info may be old)

 

[DCBaker]

That's funny - where are they getting the numbers then? as every other site states Florida isn't separating out. Making it up

where is it from? other sites say Florida doesn't separate out its numbers (that info may be old)

That is directly from the Florida Department of Health.

 

[DisneyCane]

No shock that much more deadly in older population.
But be careful calculating "survival rates" -- Many June infections have not "survived" yet. I know many victims of Covid who languished for 6+ weeks before dying.
In other words, out of those 150k infections, we are still a long way off from knowing how many died or survived. There are likely still hundreds, if not thousands, of deaths from those June infections that either haven't been reported yet or haven't happened yet. (Lest not we forget the lag in reporting)

How many people do you "know" that languished for 6+ weeks before dying of covid? For those, how many days was it before they were hospitalized?

I understand there is a lag to death. The best data I could find said that the median time from symptom onset to death is 18.5 days. That means half die quicker than that. The daily number of cases in Florida had at least tripled from the prior baseline by 6/18. It has been 20 days since then which means that at least half of the patients that are going to die from the 6/18 time frame should have died already.

The increase to over seven times the baseline happened by 6/25. While the current data is only through 12 days since then, a significant number of people who are going to die from that date should have died by now.

Of course there will be some more deaths than there were. There are more people in the 65+ age group getting infected (at least testing positive) than there were in May. However, the majority of the spike infections are in the not really vulnerable age group.

In Florida, the case fatality rate for age 54 and under is 0.16%. That doesn't account for any of the widely agreed significant number of asymptomatic or mild cases that were never tested. Even in the worst of these age groups, 45-54, the rate is 0.47%. Again, not accounting at all for undetected cases.

Now lets really put this into perspective. This page has the odds of dying within a given time period for any given age using 2014 data from the social security administration. You know what the odds of a 45 year old man dying from any cause within a year is? It is 0.31%. For a 54 year old male it is 0.72%.

Even if you take a very low estimate of there being twice the actual number of cases, a 45 year old male is 32% more likely to die from any other cause then they are to die IF THEY CONTRACT COVID-19. The chance of contracting it is not anywhere near 100%. It can be unequivocally stated that for somebody under 55 years old, you are FAR more likely to die of some random cause within the next year than you are to contract AND die from COVID-19.

Now can we step off of the doom and gloom ledge just a little bit?

 

[DisneyCane]

Because Florida counts tests not unique individuals tested- so one positive person who must be tested multiple times to get the negative to return to work - now multiply that by thousands of people/employees in same situation-testing the same positive people over and over. And the negative tests may not need as many repeat tests.

Dr John Campbell has an interesting talk today (youtube) on obesity and CV risk. Wonder why USA is being hit hard and younger are sicker? look to the rates of obesity in this country-especially in younger people vs other countries....

The new case positive rate takes out the re-tests. The dashboard doesn't separate it out but the PDF report does.

As for the obesity, I look forward to watching that later. I mentioned that in a post this morning about anecdotal reports that basically all young patients having serious issues with COVID-19 are obese.

 

[Parker in NYC]

Local health systems have raised issues with interpreting the occupancy rates as a surge in COVID-19 patients and have said that their hospitals are full because they’re going back to normal operations.
Orlando Health and AdventHeath, the two major health systems in Central Florida, have continued to say that they have enough capacity and can meet the needs of all patients.

Why it is important to read BEYOND THE HEADLINES. Texas hospital administrators have also expressed much frustration with media portrayals of "full hospitals" as people are DELAYING care making themselves sicker when they finally do go in! And it is one reason why hospitals are reluctant to disperse flat numbers as occupancy means different things.

Don't shout at me, I'm not an infant. Continue finding ways to defend this LOSING narrative.

 

[legwand77]

Another note on how Covid does not effect kids, the new CDC update on flu deaths through 6/27 is out. The seasonal flu was 5x more deadly than Covid is for kids <14.

There have been 30 deaths in children under 14 nationwide so far, and around 150 deaths in the same age group from the seasonal flu to date

 

[mickeymiss]

Another note on how Covid does not effect kids, the new CDC update on flu deaths through 6/27 is out. The seasonal flu was 5x more deadly than Covid is for kids <14.

There have been 30 deaths in children under 14 nationwide so far, and around 150 deaths in the same age group from the seasonal to date

I worry about flu every year and people acted like I was foolish. People get sick, they would say. You can't control it, they would also say. We knew a vaccinated 2 year old who passed away from it this year. We still don't know anyone who has had covid, let alone died. This is NOT to minimize it but to point out how selective people immediately became about what is valid to worry about. Germaphobia was stigmatized as recently as February.

 

[havoc315]

How many people do you "know" that languished for 6+ weeks before dying of covid? For those, how many days was it before they were hospitalized?

I understand there is a lag to death. The best data I could find said that the median time from symptom onset to death is 18.5 days. That means half die quicker than that. The daily number of cases in Florida had at least tripled from the prior baseline by 6/18. It has been 20 days since then which means that at least half of the patients that are going to die from the 6/18 time frame should have died already.

The increase to over seven times the baseline happened by 6/25. While the current data is only through 12 days since then, a significant number of people who are going to die from that date should have died by now.

Of course there will be some more deaths than there were. There are more people in the 65+ age group getting infected (at least testing positive) than there were in May. However, the majority of the spike infections are in the not really vulnerable age group.

In Florida, the case fatality rate for age 54 and under is 0.16%. That doesn't account for any of the widely agreed significant number of asymptomatic or mild cases that were never tested. Even in the worst of these age groups, 45-54, the rate is 0.47%. Again, not accounting at all for undetected cases.

Now lets really put this into perspective. This page has the odds of dying within a given time period for any given age using 2014 data from the social security administration. You know what the odds of a 45 year old man dying from any cause within a year is? It is 0.31%. For a 54 year old male it is 0.72%.

Even if you take a very low estimate of there being twice the actual number of cases, a 45 year old male is 32% more likely to die from any other cause then they are to die IF THEY CONTRACT COVID-19. The chance of contracting it is not anywhere near 100%. It can be unequivocally stated that for somebody under 55 years old, you are FAR more likely to die of some random cause within the next year than you are to contract AND die from COVID-19.

Now can we step off of the doom and gloom ledge just a little bit?

I personally know 6 people who died of Covid. 1 was hospitalized for about 8 weeks before succumbing.

On top of that, there is a delay of days to weeks before the death is reported on the state level.
Thus... someone infected in mid June might result in a death any time between late June and late July. And the death wouldn’t appear in state statistics until early July to mid August.
For example, I know some of the deaths reported in NY this week, actually occurred at the very beginning of June.

As to the odds of contracting and dying from Covid, that all depends on what preventive measures we take. With lots of preventive measures, the odds of contracting are low. Without preventive measures, the odds are much much higher.

And careful with the implied fiction that it’s no big deal if you don’t die. More and more evidence is emerging of permanent organ damage and other long term complications.

 

[DisneyCane]

I personally know 6 people who died of Covid. 1 was hospitalized for about 8 weeks before succumbing.

On top of that, there is a delay of days to weeks before the death is reported on the state level.
Thus... someone infected in mid June might result in a death any time between late June and late July. And the death wouldn’t appear in state statistics until early July to mid August.
For example, I know some of the deaths reported in NY this week, actually occurred at the very beginning of June.

As to the odds of contracting and dying from Covid, that all depends on what preventive measures we take. With lots of preventive measures, the odds of contracting are low. Without preventive measures, the odds are much much higher.

And careful with the implied fiction that it’s no big deal if you don’t die. More and more evidence is emerging of permanent organ damage and other long term complications.

First, my condolences for the people you knew who died. None of my friends or family knows more than two people who tested positive, let alone 6 who died.

I am surprised that the reporting lag is over a month in some cases. I don't think that Florida's lag is nearly that long based on everything I've seen. I assume the MEs in NY were just overwhelmed due to the size of the outbreak and number of fatalities there.

Ont he long term complications thing, I don't think that anything long term can be concluded yet. I'm assuming (correct me if I'm wrong) that any evidence pointing in that direction requires at least a somewhat severe illness.