Do you think that Disney world will reclose its gates due to the rising number of COVID cases in Florida and around the country?

[oceanbreeze77]

I'm gonna stick with a glass half full outlook and say WDW will be able to stay open and that the worst of the virus is behind us.

It would be FANTASTIC if this were true but the numbers just keep going up.

 

[oceanbreeze77]

Here is a thread discussing rising deaths. (click on the tweet to read the rest of them)

 

[marni1971]

I'm gonna stick with a glass half full outlook and say WDW will be able to stay open and that the worst of the virus is behind us..

The world wishes that is true.

 

[techgeek]

I would think they are also taking into consideration the amount of resources available (beds, tests, etc)

At this point, if I was Disney, one of the most interesting numbers to watch internally would be the % of AP’s that reserved a slot but don’t show up on Thursday or Friday.

Just like in March, people will react individually to bad numbers and ‘vote with their actions’. If they miss their attendance projections, it may trigger reconsideration of the business justifications of going forward.

Going solely by app reported wait times, it looked like AK was significantly less crowded then MK yesterday for the first CM day. I wonder if that was intentional, or if they couldn’t even get a full slate of CM’s to show up?

 

[havoc315]

I wonder how many cases it would take Thursday and Friday to get them to cancel. They've gotta have a number...

Doubt it’s based on a number of statewide infections or even deaths.

If anything, it may be more internal. If, for example, there is a huge outbreak among staff, with 10-20% of cast members testing positive.

 

[Joesixtoe]

The death fudging is going the other way. We aren't missing deaths, we are ascribing too many to Covid. And using excess deaths as a barometer is completely wrong headed. How many of those excess deaths are lockdown related, and not Covid related? That's a toll we may never know the reality of. To completely discount it undermines your entire position. We are miscounting these deaths, we don't have the system in place to really measure a pandemic, or report nationwide deaths daily. It's being done piecemeal.

As an aside, and you can label me however you like....

I have first hand knowledge of the overcounting of Covid deaths in my County and town. I have a friend who works in the county, and she has told me about death certificates that make no sense. Drug OD w/Covid. Heart Attack w/covid. Car accident w/covid. The chief of a local police department stormed into the county offices to demand an explanation for what the hell was going on. Why was every death being marked "Covid". Now, is there enough of this to make a meaningful dent in the overall numbers? I don't know.

It does make me tend to label the counting as "miscounted" more then anything else though.

I know someone who went to New York to help out during their big break out. He came back saying the same thing, they weren't all Covid19 deaths, but were being marked as such.

 

[ElvisMickey]

At this point, if I was Disney, one of the most interesting numbers to watch internally would be the % of AP’s that reserved a slot but don’t show up on Thursday or Friday.

Just like in March, people will react individually to bad numbers and ‘vote with their actions’. If they miss their attendance projections, it may trigger reconsideration of the business justifications of going forward.

Going solely by app reported wait times, it looked like AK was significantly less crowded then MK yesterday for the first CM day. I wonder if that was intentional, or if they couldn’t even get a full slate of CM’s to show up?

I was keeping an eye on the app yesterday and didn’t see a wait longer than 45 minutes all day and that was only for Mine Train. I’ll be at the AP preview tomorrow for the MK...hoping it’s similar as far as crowd level.

 

[DisneyDebRob]

I was keeping an eye on the app yesterday and didn’t see a wait longer than 45 minutes all day and that was only for Mine Train. I’ll be at the AP preview tomorrow for the MK...hoping it’s similar as far as crowd level.

What is amazing is that there was a 45 minute wait for anything with very few people there. Could it be over hour waits for some things with even low capacity crowds when it opens? I’ve been hearing here for the past few weeks about how nice it will be with basically everything a walk on.

 

[ElvisMickey]

What is amazing is that there was a 45 minute wait for anything with very few people there. Could it be over hour waits for some things with even low capacity crowds when it opens? I’ve been hearing here for the past few weeks about how nice it will be with basically everything a walk on.

That’s definitely true. I plan on getting there for rope drop but I’ll be playing it by ear tomorrow in regards to how long I stay. Hopefully it will be similar to the CM previews but I don’t know if they were capped out yesterday or not. Lines could be longer for sure.

 

[xdan0920]

I know someone who went to New York to help out during their big break out. He came back saying the same thing, they weren't all Covid19 deaths, but were being marked as such.

It’s all too common, but talking about it is wrong.

 

[DisneyCane]

Now you factor in age, hypertension and a host of other conditions and you're looking at 65%+ of the American public who is "at risk" which makes the "shelter the most vulnerable" argument of some completely moot.

Obviously this is somewhat anecdotal but I've been told that almost all of the younger patients at two Florida hospitals that have serious illness or require being put in the ICU are obese. Not "overweight" but truly and obviously obese.

This anecdote is backed up by Desantis mentioning the other day that doctors he's been meeting with have identified that and diabetes as key underlying conditions for serious issues.

Please stop this ridiculous suggestion that over 65% of Americans are at risk of serious problems if they contract covid-19. The hospitalization rate isn't even 1/3 of that.

 

[Jdn0018]

Testing is a better word.

@marni1971 Does that mean the crowd levels upon opening will be similar to what they were yesterday? Or only that Disney was trying to get a better feel for how their procedures would work with people actually in the park?

 

[DisneyCane]

You may want to avoid reopened restaurants after reading this new JP Morgan report on coronavirus outbreaks

The study found that the "level of spending in restaurants three weeks ago was the strongest predictor of the rise in new virus cases over the subsequent three weeks."

fortune.com

Correlation does not equal causation. Other things occurred besides dine in increasing. The only way a study like this can be valid is if they analyzed the spending of people testing positive and determined if it was more likely to test positive if you dine in more frequently.

Also, "card present" doesn't mean done in. Most mom and pop places don't have online card processing for take out if you order directly through them.

 

[esskay]

Going solely by app reported wait times, it looked like AK was significantly less crowded then MK yesterday for the first CM day. I wonder if that was intentional, or if they couldn’t even get a full slate of CM’s to show up?

Not surprising, people often make MK their first park they visit when they go to WDW after being away for a while. Given the choice of the two I'd wager that most would pick MK.

 

[Mark52479]

Josh D'Amaro in an interview said Disney ob schedule to opening Saturday. He said This is the new normal and they will have to learn to adjust. They believe they can do so safely.

Disney World Draws Excitement and Incredulity as Reopening Nears (Published 2020)

The mega-resort will welcome back visitors on Saturday even as coronavirus cases in Florida remain high. In doing so, Disney steps into a politicized debate.

www.google.com

 

[Joesixtoe]

When it comes to death % rate, you also have to take into count that there are many people out there who have this virus that aren't even being tested. Supposedly people 54 and under have a .0000194 death rate if we are only getting 1/10 of the positivity here in Florida.

Covid19 talks start at 3:40 ish

 

[mickeymiss]

I’m also worried about CMs getting infected off site and bringing the virus to work. More cases=more chances for community spread and the only way to be 100% safe is to stay quarantined at home. I still maintain that anyone going to a mass gathering (10+ people) that is not essential (don’t bring up grocery stores, you need to eat) is being irresponsible right now.

I consider a gathering of 10 people to be more "risky" than a CDC guideline following theme park because they are distinctly different exposures. Most people interpret a gathering right now as not needing to wear masks to visit 10 friends or family members. Gatherings can be as long as people want them to be. Hours. Overnight. Hugging. Talking face to face. Being indoors for longer periods within a few feet. People can feel however they want to feel but there's really no disputing that prolonged person to person interaction is highest risk. I can't see how anyone would compare being briefly around strangers at a park that took your temperature and made you wear a mask as worse than hanging out maskless with a group of people for hours.

 

[Horizons '83]

What is amazing is that there was a 45 minute wait for anything with very few people there. Could it be over hour waits for some things with even low capacity crowds when it opens? I’ve been hearing here for the past few weeks about how nice it will be with basically everything a walk on.

Splash Mountain was the only one in that 45 minute ballpark, presumably due to it potentially being closed at some point. There was also a lengthy line to buy Splash Merch.

 

[marni1971]

@marni1971 Does that mean the crowd levels upon opening will be similar to what they were yesterday? Or only that Disney was trying to get a better feel for how their procedures would work with people actually in the park?

I’d be very surprised if the parks are that empty when the general public are allowed in. These first days are to check everything works as planned.

 

[marni1971]

Splash Mountain was the only one in that 45 minute ballpark, presumably due to it potentially being closed at some point. There was also a lengthy line to buy Splash Merch.

They had to close Briar Patch for a time.