Because that’s how math works. All of these precautions are just that; precautions. Wearing masks decreases the spread. It doesn’t stop it entirely. If only 4 or 5 asymptomatic people make it into the park, the odds of you getting it as well are pretty low and acceptable to the degree that it’s not reckless to be in a theme park. Now let’s say 100 asymptomatic people make it into the park. Now your odds of catching this have just gone up drastically higher to the point that maybe it isn’t safe anymore. That’s why things like testing positivity rate matter. That’s why it’s a big deal if only a few thousands Floridians are infected vs a few hundred thousand. Doesn’t matter where they caught it. The spread needs to be under control if WDW wants to be as safe as they were expecting it to be.
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Do you think that Disney world will reclose its gates due to the rising number of COVID cases in Florida and around the country?
- Thread starter Logan L
- Start date
Because that’s how math works. All of these precautions are just that; precautions. Wearing masks decreases the spread. It doesn’t stop it entirely. If only 4 or 5 asymptomatic people make it into the park, the odds of you getting it as well are pretty low and acceptable to the degree that it’s not reckless to be in a theme park. Now let’s say 100 asymptomatic people make it into the park. Now your odds of catching this have just gone up drastically higher to the point that maybe it isn’t safe anymore. That’s why things like testing positivity rate matter. That’s why it’s a big deal if only a few thousands Floridians are infected vs a few hundred thousand. Doesn’t matter where they caught it. The spread needs to be under control if WDW wants to be as safe as they were expecting it to be.
oceanbreeze77
Well-Known Member
milordsloth
Well-Known Member
At least everyone I see is wearing a mask! Eventhough it appears crowded, I doubt any 2 different groups of people there are spending 10min within 6ft of eachother.
So...you mean to tell me Floridians...who, considering the current situation and what brought them to this point, dont typically follow the guidelines and rules set out by the experts advising on the control of this virus.....are randomly getting tested for coronavirus just because? Most of them wont even wear masks but they get tested while being asymptomatic? Let's be real... and I dont care what the news is saying about it...I highly doubt these people are lining up for hours to get tested and have a cotton swab jammed up their nose just because...for a virus many down there are calling a "hoax" and wont even follow guidelines. Yes some jobs may mandate it, but are there really that many jobs requiring tests when they wont even require masks? Doesnt sound quite right to me.
I'm sure most of those numbers in Florida are not coming from asymptomatic carriers.
Btw...to those down in Florida who have been careful and considerate of others through this, thank you, and I'm sorry for what you're dealing with right now due to those who cant do the same.
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My community just hit a spike in cases -- from 2 people that came back from Florida.
NYC had massive death, because the disease was spreading unchecked in February and early March, totally unaware, with no testing. So all that February and March spread turned into March and April deaths.
Florida does not look to get hit as hard as NY under any circumstance. Given there is significant testing, there is social distancing and masking. So Florida is highly unlikely to ever get to the point where NY got.
But... Florida is getting pretty bad. Having less death than NY isn't much of a prize, if you still have considerable death.
In NY, the 7-day rolling average for deaths is down to 31 per day. Based on current infection rates, that number should continue to decline over the next few weeks.
In Florida, the 7-day rolling average for deaths is now about 38 per day.
So NY is going in the right direction, Florida is going in the wrong direction.
It's extremely likely that Florida deaths climb to 100+ per day in the coming weeks. Could easily go to 300-500+ per day.
Unlikely to ever get to NY's 1,000-2,000+ per day, since no sustained uncontrolled spread like NYC. But still very significant dangerous numbers.
Disstevefan1
Well-Known Member
There are no guarantees in life but WDW will open as scheduled.
That's simply not true... at all.
As coronavirus cases grow, so do Florida's hospitalizations
Florida has had 14,580 hospitalizations for coronavirus.
www.wesh.com
Coronavirus hospitalizations hit new high in Orange County
Nearly 170 people were hospitalized with coronavirus in Orange County by Wednesday evening — the most ever since the pandemic hit Central Florida in March — while positive cases also sk…
www.orlandosentinel.com
The last few days have seen decreasing cases in Orange County, but continued slight uptick in hospitalizations.
Disstevefan1
Well-Known Member
There was a Universal Orlando garage sale!!!!?????!!! Darn I missed it!
All correct -- But missing a significant issue -- Contact tracing.
When you have relatively few cases, you can take the new cases and limit the spread by chasing down the infected person's contacts, getting them tested and isolated.
That's what NY is doing now, with so many fewer cases. We had an outbreak at an event in my town of a dozen cases, everyone at the event is under quarantine for 2 weeks.
When you have thousands of new daily infections, you can't contact trace. You can't contain the new infections.
It's the difference between a small brush fire, which is pretty easy to contain and put out. Versus an out of control wildfire.
And you know that how?
We all want to get back to Disney. This will be the first year in many years my family wont be going, and trust me...with the stress of this year and our own personal family stress before this virus occured...we need it and are looking forward to the day we can safely return to our happy place (be it we can still think of it as such considering what value they may or may not put on our lives at this point, sounds dramatic, but these are dramatic times). However, it's not worth our lives and the lives/health of those we love.
Disney has a lot to think about and they are clearly being pulled from many directions. I just hope they make the right decision in this matter, because it could cost them more than they're ready to take on. You cant put a price on human life. Well remember them for how they handle this in the coming days. The world is watching right now...and for a company who is always ready and willing to be on the center stage...they better be up to the task with this.
Disney has a lot to think about and they are clearly being pulled from many directions. I just hope they make the right decision in this matter, because it could cost them more than they're ready to take on. You cant put a price on human life. Well remember them for how they handle this in the coming days. The world is watching right now...and for a company who is always ready and willing to be on the center stage...they better be up to the task with this.
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Well, I think that they will reopen. They may keep a very strict tight eye on the first full two weeks of opening and have to make changes but at this point, they are pretty much at a point of no return i would think. They just opened dining reservations back up to those of us that got canceled on, the park system was a fiasco, APs are ticked off, CM previews are less than a week away and AP events a week away. No way they delay.
Watch closely and make changes we may not like, absolutely.
WDW Pro
Well-Known Member
That's simply not true... at all.
As coronavirus cases grow, so do Florida's hospitalizations
Florida has had 14,580 hospitalizations for coronavirus.
Coronavirus hospitalizations hit new high in Orange County
Nearly 170 people were hospitalized with coronavirus in Orange County by Wednesday evening — the most ever since the pandemic hit Central Florida in March — while positive cases also sk…
The last few days have seen decreasing cases in Orange County, but continued slight uptick in hospitalizations.
Your sources say there are 15k covid hospitalizations in Florida, only 500 of which are in the Orlando areas. Do you know the number in Miami? You should probably know that before declaring everything I said not true "at all".
I got in on one of the passholder preview dates. I plan on being overly friendly and thank every single cast member I run into. I’m gonna wait patiently and enjoy myself. I feel it’s the responsibility of all of us going the first week or two to do the same so that Disney and it’s workers feel this is a good idea. If they see guests harassing employees and not following rules, it could push them towards closing indefinitely again.
100% agree! We are slated to be there for the week starting July 12th. I will be over kind, do as I am supposed to and follow everything they tell me to! We have multiple masks and are ready! We know the rules and are prepared to follow them and if something happens and we feel we cannot, very simple we will just go back to our resort.
tissandtully
Well-Known Member
Everyone seems to forget that due to the reservation system, WDW has a way to tweak capacity, moreso thank Universal. I see them adjusting during the COVID waves a lot, past the first few weeks.
DisneyCane
Well-Known Member
The 7 day rolling average of daily new hospitalizations for the entire state are up about 12.5% from where they were throughout April and May. However, the 7 day rolling average of cases is 3-6 times higher than it was during that time period for over a week now. This indicates a MUCH higher percentage of cases that don't require hospitalizations.That's simply not true... at all.
As coronavirus cases grow, so do Florida's hospitalizations
Florida has had 14,580 hospitalizations for coronavirus.
Coronavirus hospitalizations hit new high in Orange County
Nearly 170 people were hospitalized with coronavirus in Orange County by Wednesday evening — the most ever since the pandemic hit Central Florida in March — while positive cases also sk…
The last few days have seen decreasing cases in Orange County, but continued slight uptick in hospitalizations.
The 7 day rolling average of daily fatalities has not gone up in any perceptible manner and is lower than it was in April. The daily case rolling average doubled from the steady state over two weeks ago. I would expect to see some noticeable increase in fatalities by now.
It could be due to the virus becoming less virulent or the age breakdown of those becoming infected.
I don't really understand the point of publishing the total hospitalizations. There are not 15k COVID patients in the hospital. 15k COVID patients were hospitalized at some point in their illness. What matters (and that isn't available as far as I can find) is the CURRENT number of COVID patients hospitalized.
WDW Pro
Well-Known Member
I chose to only use info given in the sources trying to counter me. Clearly there are much, much better metrics than what many are using for political reasons.
Disstevefan1
Well-Known Member
Tee shirts 2 for $5 and they throw the COVID in for free!
Here is the CORRECT hospitalization information from Florida Department of Health
The number of reported deaths of Florida residents rose to 3,550, an increase of 45 since Tuesday.
The total number of people who have been hospitalized is 14,825. The Department of Health notes the total figure is cumulative and does not reflect the number of COVID-19 patients currently in hospitals.
The number of reported deaths of Florida residents rose to 3,550, an increase of 45 since Tuesday.
The total number of people who have been hospitalized is 14,825. The Department of Health notes the total figure is cumulative and does not reflect the number of COVID-19 patients currently in hospitals.
Coronavirus in Florida: What you need to know Wednesday, July 1
The number of reported deaths of Florida residents rose to 3,550, an increase of 45 since Tuesday.
www.naplesnews.com